Debunking material induction

In this paper, we present an explanatory objection to Norton's material theory of induction, as applied to predictive inferences. According to the objection we present, there is an explanatory disconnect between our beliefs about the future and the relevant future facts. We argue that if we recognize such a disconnect, we are no longer rationally entitled to our future beliefs.     

Dynamic Latent Class Model Averaging for Online Prediction

We consider the problem of online prediction when it is uncertain what the best prediction model to use is. We develop a method called dynamic latent class model averaging, which combines a state‐space model for the parameters of each of the candidate models of the system with a Markov chain model for the best model. We propose a polychotomous regression model for the transition weights to assume that the probability of a change in time depends on the past through the values of the most recent time periods and spatial correlation among the regions. The evolution of the parameters in each submodel is defined by exponential forgetting. This structure allows the ‘correct’ model to vary over both time and regions. In contrast to existing methods, the proposed model naturally incorporates clustering and prediction analysis in a single unified framework. We develop an efficient Gibbs algorithm for computation, and we demonstrate the value of our framework on simulated experiments and on a real‐world problem: forecasting IBM's corporate revenue. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Natural history of a South African insect pollinator assemblage (Insecta: Coleoptera,Diptera, Hymenoptera,Lepidoptera): diagnostic notes,food web analysis and conservation recommendations

We describe activity patterns, relative abundances and pollen transport by insect floral visitors in the Skukuza Ranger District, Kruger National Park, Republic of South Africa, based on field surveys conducted during the early rainy seasons of years 2006 to 2012 (inclusive). Diagnostic notes, illustrations and natural history observations are provided for species in the families Buprestidae, Cerambycidae, Cleridae, Lycidae and Scarabaeidae (Coleoptera), Muscidae, Platystomatidae and Tabanidae (Diptera), Apidae, Halictidae, Megachilidae, Sphecidae and Vespidae (Hymenoptera), and Pieridae and Thyrididae (Lepidoptera) that transported pollen of tree or shrub species. Observations on floral phenology and pollination syndrome are presented for 27 flowering tree or shrub species. To provide a foundation for studies of the effects of drought and climate change on pollination services in the Kruger National Park, we applied methods of food web analysis to characterise this plant-pollinator assemblage. The food web analysis shows moderate levels of redundancy in plant-pollinator interactions (with connectance values averaging 0.19 for plant species and 0.20 for pollinator species), suggesting that pollination services in this system may exhibit some resilience to environmental perturbations. Possible conservation strategies for maintaining pollination services in this ecological system are discussed, including habitat management to conserve larval or nesting areas for social and solitary bees and scarab beetles, as well as further inventories and long-term monitoring of pollinator species.     

Genome-wide copy number variation study associates metabotropic glutamate receptor gene networks with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder

Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is a common, heritable neuropsychiatric disorder of unknown etiology. We performed a whole-genome copy number variation (CNV) study on 1,013 cases with ADHD and 4,105 healthy children of European ancestry using 550,000 SNPs. We evaluated statistically significant findings in multiple independent cohorts, with a total of 2,493 cases with ADHD and 9,222 controls of European ancestry, using matched platforms. CNVs affecting metabotropic glutamate receptor genes were enriched across all cohorts (P = 2.1 × 10(-9)). We saw GRM5 (encoding glutamate receptor, metabotropic 5) deletions in ten cases and one control (P = 1.36 × 10(-6)). We saw GRM7 deletions in six cases, and we saw GRM8 deletions in eight cases and no controls. GRM1 was duplicated in eight cases. We experimentally validated the observed variants using quantitative RT-PCR. A gene network analysis showed that genes interacting with the genes in the GRM family are enriched for CNVs in ～10% of the cases (P = 4.38 × 10(-10)) after correction for occurrence in the controls. We identified rare recurrent CNVs affecting glutamatergic neurotransmission genes that were overrepresented in multiple ADHD cohorts.     

Neutrophil extracellular traps in cancer progression

Neutrophils are being increasingly recognized as an important element in tumor progression. They have been shown to exert important effects at nearly every stage of tumor progression with a number of studies demonstrating that their presence is critical to tumor development. Novel aspects of neutrophil biology have recently been elucidated and its contribution to tumorigenesis is only beginning to be appreciated. Neutrophil extracellular traps (NETs) are neutrophil-derived structures composed of DNA decorated with antimicrobial peptides. They have been shown to trap and kill microorganisms, playing a critical role in host defense. However, their contribution to tumor development and metastasis has recently been demonstrated in a number of studies highlighting NETs as a potentially important therapeutic target. Here, studies implicating NETs as facilitators of tumor progression and metastasis are reviewed. In addition, potential mechanisms by which NETs may exert these effects are explored. Finally, the ability to target NETs therapeutically in human neoplastic disease is highlighted.     

CD24 interacts with and promotes the activity of c-src within lipid rafts in breast cancer cells, thereby increasing integrin-dependent adhesion

Expression of the glycosylphosphatidylinositol-anchored membrane protein CD24 correlates with a poor prognosis for many human cancers, and in experimental tumors can promote metastasis. However, the mechanism by which CD24 contributes to tumor progression remains unclear. Here we report that in MTLy breast cancer cells CD24 interacts with and augments the kinase activity of c-src, a protein strongly implicated in promoting invasion and metastasis. This occurs within and is dependent upon intact lipid rafts. CD24-augmented c-src kinase activity increased formation of focal adhesion complexes, accelerated phosphorylation of FAK and paxillin and consequently enhanced integrin-mediated adhesion. Loss and gain of function approaches showed that c-src activity is necessary and sufficient to mediate the effects of CD24 on integrin-dependent adhesion and cell spreading, as well as on invasion. Together these results indicate that c-src is a CD24-activated mediator that promotes integrin-mediated adhesion and invasion, and suggest a mechanism by which CD24 might contribute to tumor progression through stimulating the activity of c-src or another member of the Src family.     

Mutations in CTC1, encoding conserved telomere maintenance component 1, cause Coats plus

Coats plus is a highly pleiotropic disorder particularly affecting the eye, brain, bone and gastrointestinal tract. Here, we show that Coats plus results from mutations in CTC1, encoding conserved telomere maintenance component 1, a member of the mammalian homolog of the yeast heterotrimeric CST telomeric capping complex. Consistent with the observation of shortened telomeres in an Arabidopsis CTC1 mutant and the phenotypic overlap of Coats plus with the telomeric maintenance disorders comprising dyskeratosis congenita, we observed shortened telomeres in three individuals with Coats plus and an increase in spontaneous γH2AX-positive cells in cell lines derived from two affected individuals. CTC1 is also a subunit of the α-accessory factor (AAF) complex, stimulating the activity of DNA polymerase-α primase, the only enzyme known to initiate DNA replication in eukaryotic cells. Thus, CTC1 may have a function in DNA metabolism that is necessary for but not specific to telomeric integrity.     

Effects of long-term livestock grazing and habitat on understory vegetation

The herbaceous understory stratum contains most of the plant diversity in ponderosa pine ( Pinus ponderosa P. & C. Lawson var. scopulorum Engelm.) forests of the American Southwest and provides critical food and habitat for many wildlife species. During the last century, this stratum has been affected by livestock grazing and by increased dominance of overstory trees. We sampled a unique grazing exclosure to examine the relative importance of long-term livestock grazing (grazed or ungrazed) and habitat (park or tree) on the understory community. We sampled 3 plots of 192 contiguous quadrats (each quadrat 0.5 m 2 ) in each of the 4 treatment combinations, for a total of 2304 quadrats. Species-area curves were generated by aggregating quadrats into nonoverlapping areas at grain sizes of 0.5 to 576 m 2 . The effects of habitat and grazing on species density were evident at very different scales. Species density was higher in park than tree plots at scales ≤32 m 2 but did not differ between habitats at larger scales. Species density differed minimally between grazed and ungrazed treatments at small grains, but grazed plots contained more species than ungrazed plots at larger grains. Grazing treatments differed at smaller grains (to 4–8 m 2 ) than did habitats (to 32 m 2 ), with respect to density of native species and graminoids. Grazed plots had more exotic species than ungrazed plots at all grain sizes, though few exotics were present. Twenty-two species were identified as indicator species associated with habitats and/or grazing treatments. Evaluations of plant community response to treatments would be improved by accounting for the grain at which data have been collected and analyzed and by identifying indicator species associated with various treatments. These data would enable more-informed conservation and management decisions.