We have each spent more than 50 years doing research that has had little impact. Even more lamentable is that our field, judgment and decision making (JDM), has on the whole had little impact during that span. We attribute that failure to the use of methodologies that emphasize testing models rather than looking for differences in behavior. The “cognitive revolution” led the field astray, toward the goal of studying model fit rather than comparing observable results. With modeling as the goal, experimentation was stultified. Simple tasks became dominant. Although a poor metaphor for real decision making, the gambling paradigm has lasted forever because the inputs to the decision are known to the researcher and thus easily modeled. 相似文献
Flow and heat transfer of aqueous based silica and alumina nanofluids in microchannels were experimentally investigated. The measured friction factors were higher than conventional model predictions at low Reynolds numbers particularly with high nanoparticle concentrations. A decrease in the friction factor was observed with increasing Reynolds number, possibly due to the augmentation of nanoparticle aggregate shape arising from fluid shear and alteration of local nanoparticle concentration and nanofluid viscosity. Augmentation of the silica nanoparticle morphology by fluid shear may also have affected the friction factor due to possible formation of a core/shell structure of the particles. Measured thermal conductivities of the silica nanofluids were in approximate agreement with the Maxwell-Crosser model, whereas the alumina nanofluids only showed slight enhancements. Enhanced convective heat transfer was observed for both nanofluids, relative to their base fluids (water), at low particle concentrations. Heat transfer enhancement increased with increasing Reynolds number and microchannel hydraulic diameter. However, the majority of experiments showed a larger increase in pumping power requirements relative to heat transfer enhancements, which may hinder the industrial uptake of the nanofluids, particularly in confined environments, such as Micro Electro-Mechanical Systems (MEMS). 相似文献
This article analyzes the angular spacing of the degree marks on the zodiac scale of the Antikythera mechanism and demonstrates that over the entire preserved 88° of the zodiac, the marks are systematically placed too close together to be consistent with a uniform distribution over 360°. Thus, in some other part of the zodiac scale (not preserved), the degree marks have been spaced farther apart. By contrast, the day marks on the Egyptian calendar scale are spaced uniformly, apart from minor errors. A solar equation of center is apparent which rises by nearly 2.7° over the preserved portion of the zodiac. The placement of the degree marks indicates that, in the preserved portion of the zodiac, the Sun was considered to run at a uniform pace of about 30° per synodic month, which is consistent with the Sun’s speed in the fast zone of the Babylonian solar theory of System A.
We describe activity patterns, relative abundances and pollen transport by insect floral visitors in the Skukuza Ranger District, Kruger National Park, Republic of South Africa, based on field surveys conducted during the early rainy seasons of years 2006 to 2012 (inclusive). Diagnostic notes, illustrations and natural history observations are provided for species in the families Buprestidae, Cerambycidae, Cleridae, Lycidae and Scarabaeidae (Coleoptera), Muscidae, Platystomatidae and Tabanidae (Diptera), Apidae, Halictidae, Megachilidae, Sphecidae and Vespidae (Hymenoptera), and Pieridae and Thyrididae (Lepidoptera) that transported pollen of tree or shrub species. Observations on floral phenology and pollination syndrome are presented for 27 flowering tree or shrub species. To provide a foundation for studies of the effects of drought and climate change on pollination services in the Kruger National Park, we applied methods of food web analysis to characterise this plant-pollinator assemblage. The food web analysis shows moderate levels of redundancy in plant-pollinator interactions (with connectance values averaging 0.19 for plant species and 0.20 for pollinator species), suggesting that pollination services in this system may exhibit some resilience to environmental perturbations. Possible conservation strategies for maintaining pollination services in this ecological system are discussed, including habitat management to conserve larval or nesting areas for social and solitary bees and scarab beetles, as well as further inventories and long-term monitoring of pollinator species. 相似文献
To identify somatic mutations in pediatric diffuse intrinsic pontine glioma (DIPG), we performed whole-genome sequencing of DNA from seven DIPGs and matched germline tissue and targeted sequencing of an additional 43 DIPGs and 36 non-brainstem pediatric glioblastomas (non-BS-PGs). We found that 78% of DIPGs and 22% of non-BS-PGs contained a mutation in H3F3A, encoding histone H3.3, or in the related HIST1H3B, encoding histone H3.1, that caused a p.Lys27Met amino acid substitution in each protein. An additional 14% of non-BS-PGs had somatic mutations in H3F3A causing a p.Gly34Arg alteration. 相似文献