Impact of corrections for dynamic selection bias on forecasts of retention behavior

We investigate the impact of corrections for dynamic selection bias on forecasting accuracy in a multi‐period stay/leave model. While corrections for selection bias are needed for consistent coefficient estimates, they do not necessarily produce more accurate forecasts than uncorrected techniques. Theorem 1 shows that, apart from estimation errors, a shrinkage principle applies: the heterogeneity restriction imposed by uncorrected and combination techniques improves accuracy for forecasting individuals that leave, and hurts accuracy for forecasting individuals that stay. This has important implications for decision making because of the potential for asymmetric losses. We also present an illustrative empirical application and results from Monte Carlo experiments. We find that differences in relative accuracy vary directly with the degree of selection bias and inversely with the percentage of the initial population that stays. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Decision‐Based Forecast Evaluation of UK Interest Rate Predictability

This paper illustrates the importance of density forecasting and forecast evaluation in portfolio decision making. The decision‐making environment is fully described for an investor seeking to optimally allocate her portfolio between long and short Treasury bills, over investment horizons of up to 2 years. We examine the impact of parameter uncertainty and predictability in bond returns on the investor's allocation and we describe how the forecasts are computed and used in this context. Both statistical and decision‐based criteria are used to assess the predictability of returns. Our results show sensitivity to the evaluation criterion used and, in the context of investment decision making under an economic value criterion, we find some potential gain for the investor from assuming predictability. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Understanding algorithm aversion: When is advice from automation discounted?

Forecasting advice from human advisors is often utilized more than advice from automation. There is little understanding of why “algorithm aversion” occurs, or specific conditions that may exaggerate it. This paper first reviews literature from two fields—interpersonal advice and human–automation trust—that can inform our understanding of the underlying causes of the phenomenon. Then, an experiment is conducted to search for these underlying causes. We do not replicate the finding that human advice is generally utilized more than automated advice. However, after receiving bad advice, utilization of automated advice decreased significantly more than advice from humans. We also find that decision makers describe themselves as having much more in common with human than automated advisors despite there being no interpersonal relationship in our study. Results are discussed in relation to other findings from the forecasting and human–automation trust fields and provide a new perspective on what causes and exaggerates algorithm aversion.     

Standards of evidence and causality in regulatory science: Risk and benefit assessment

In this paper we analyze the Russo-Williamson Thesis (RWT) as a standard of evidence in regulatory science, in risk as well as benefit assessment. In our analysis we take account of the recent controversies that have taken place in regulation with respect to the evidentiary requirements necessary for regulatory decision making. RWT's main point is that not only probabilistic but also mechanistic evidence is necessary for being able to infer the existence of causal links. We ask in which way RWT could have an impact upon current decision making about subjecting to regulation (or, to the contrary, leaving them unregulated) certain chemical substances, food stuffs, health claims, and other typical objects of regulation. We show that the application of RWT resolves some of the problems posed by current standards of evidence. RWT makes it possible to determine with higher accuracy if a particular substance should be subjected to regulation or not, even though under certain circumstances RWT itself may turn into a source of regulatory error. The adequacy of RWT as a standard of evidence depends on the precise manner of its application to regulation (particularly the consideration of mechanistic evidence as a complementary or necessary requirement), as well as the assessment of its non-epistemic consequences.     

Hammerhead ribozyme design and application

The emerging knowledge about RNA-based enzymes has already had great impact on our concept of evolutionary history, making the ‘RNA world’ more likely. It may well have an equally important impact on the diagnostic and therapeutic practices of human and veterinary medicine in the next decade. We are not quite there yet. This review addresses the design and application of hammerhead ribozymes, two aspects of a conserved and most commonly studied and used enzymatically active entity among the RNA enzymes. The emerging picture is one of great diversity. There is at this stage no general cell model nor a clearly preferable ribozyme structure. Each and every cell line (and tissue) may be unique in that they vary with respect to structural requirements for optimal uptake, activity and stability of ribozymes. We may have seen only the tip of the iceberg when it comes to RNA-based enzymes and their roles in biology and medicine. Received 3 June 1998; received after revision 28 July 1998; accepted 28 July 1998     

The goal of explanation

I defend the claim that understanding is the goal of explanation against various persistent criticisms, especially the criticism that understanding is not truth-connected in the appropriate way, and hence is a merely psychological (rather than epistemic) state. Part of the reason why understanding has been dismissed as the goal of explanation, I suggest, is because the psychological dimension of the goal of explanation has itself been almost entirely neglected. In turn, the psychological dimension of understanding—the Aha! experience, the sense that a certain explanation “feels right”, and so on—has been conspicuously overemphasized. I try to correct for both of these exaggerations. Just as the goal of explanation includes a richer psychological—including phenomenological—dimension than is generally acknowledged, so too understanding has a stronger truth connection than is generally acknowledged.     

Patient participation in the clinical encounter and clinical practice guidelines: The case of patients’ participation in a GRADEd world

It is widely acknowledged that the patient's perspective should be considered when making decisions about how her care will be managed. Patient participation in the decision making process may play an important role in bringing to light and incorporating her perspective. The GRADE framework is touted as an evidence-based process for determining recommendations for clinical practice; i.e. determining how care ought to be managed. GRADE recommendations are categorized as “strong” or “weak” based on several factors, including the “values and preferences” of a “typical” patient. The strength of the recommendation also provides instruction to the clinician about when and how patients should participate in the clinical encounter, and thus whether an individual patient's values and preferences will be heard in her clinical encounter. That is, a “strong” recommendation encourages “paternalism” and a “weak” recommendation encourages shared decision making. We argue that adoption of the GRADE framework is problematic to patient participation and may result in care that is not respectful of the individual patient's values and preferences. We argue that the root of the problem is the conception of “values and preferences” in GRADE – the framework favours population thinking (e.g. “typical” patient “values and preferences”), despite the fact that “values and preferences” are individual in the sense that they are deeply personal. We also show that tying the strength of a recommendation to a model of decision making (paternalism or shared decision making) constrains patient participation and is not justified (theoretically and/or empirically) in the GRADE literature.     

Judging the probability that the next point in an observed time-series will be below,or above,a given value

We presented people with trended and untrended time series and asked them to estimate the probability that the next point would be below each of seven different reference values. The true probabilities that the point would be below these values were 0.01, 0.10, 0.25, 0.50, 0.75, 0.90 and 0.99. People overestimated probabilities of less than 0.50 and underestimated those of more than 0.50. Consequently, their subjective probability distributions were flatter than they should have been: people appeared to be under confident in their estimates of where the next point would lie. This bias was greater for the trended series. It was also greater in a second experiment in which people estimated the probability that the next item would be above the reference values. We discuss reasons for these effects and consider their implications for decision making.     

On the normative dimension of the St. Petersburg paradox

In this paper I offer an account of the normative dimension implicit in D. Bernoulli’s expected utility functions by means of an analysis of the juridical metaphors upon which the concept of mathematical expectation was moulded. Following a suggestion by the late E. Coumet, I show how this concept incorporated a certain standard of justice which was put in question by the St. Petersburg paradox. I contend that Bernoulli would have solved it by introducing an alternative normative criterion rather than a positive model of decision making processes.     

Decision-analytic assessment of the economic value of weather forecasts: The fallowing/planting problem

A decision-analytic approach is taken to the problem of assessing the economic value of imperfect weather forecasts. Emphasis is placed on measures of the quality of such information and on the relationship between quality and economic value. The fallowing/planting problem for a spring wheat farmer is examined in detail as a specific application. It is assumed that the farmer's goal is to maximize the total expected discounted return over an infinite horizon, which places this problem within the general framework of Markov decision processes. By means of stochastic dynamic programming, the economic value to the farmer of currently available seasonal precipitation forecasts, as well as of hypothetical improvements in the quality of such forecasts, is estimated. Because the relationship between the quality and value of forecasts is highly nonlinear, the need to explicitly determine value-of-information estimates, rather than relying on quality as a surrogate for value, is made clear.     

Incredulity towards Lyotard: a critique of a postmodernist account of science and knowledge

Philosophers of science have paid little attention, positive or negative, to Lyotard’s book The postmodern condition, even though it has been popular in other fields. We set out some of the reasons for this neglect. Lyotard thought that sciences could be justified by non-scientific narratives (a position he later abandoned). We show why this is unacceptable, and why many of Lyotard’s characterisations of science are either implausible or are narrowly positivist. One of Lyotard’s themes is that the nature of knowledge has changed and thereby so has society itself. However much of what Lyotard says muddles epistemological matters about the definition of ‘knowledge’ with sociological claims about how information circulates in modern society. We distinguish two kinds of legitimation of science: epistemic and socio-political. In proclaiming ‘incredulity towards metanarratives’ Lyotard has nothing to say about how epistemic and methodological principles are to be justified (legitimated). He also gives a bad argument as to why there can be no epistemic legitimation, which is based on an act/content confusion, and a confusion between making an agreement and the content of what is agreed to. As for socio-political legitimation, Lyotard’s discussion remains at the abstract level of science as a whole rather than at the level of the particular applications of sciences. Moreover his positive points can be accepted without taking on board any of his postmodernist account of science. Finally we argue that Lyotard’s account of paralogy, which is meant to provide a ‘postmodern’ style of justification, is a failure.     

Evaluation of the going-concern status for companies: An ensemble framework-based model

Issuing a going-concern opinion is a difficult and complex task for auditors. The auditors have to take into account different critical factors in order to make the right decision based on information obtained from the auditing process. This study adopts the so-called “random forest” approach (based on the ensemble method) to assist auditors in making such a decision. To investigate the corresponding effect of the proposed approach, we conduct a series of experiments and a performance comparison. The results show that the random forest method outperforms the baseline methods in terms of the accuracy rate, ROC area, kappa value, type II error, precision, and recall rate. The proposed approach is proven to be more accurate and stable than previous methods.     

An overview of climate change impacts on the society in China

Society could sustain the impact of climate change by adapting to the change and mitigating risks from adverse effects of increasing changes, so that it can continue maintaining its prospect and improving wellbeing. Nevertheless, climate change is more or less affecting society's functions at different scales, including both individuals and communities. In this review, we discuss the relationship between society and climate change in China from the aspects of the needs at different socioeconomic developing stages. The relationship as well as the current spatial pattern and future risks of the climate change impacts on societies are summarized. The complexity of social and climatic systems leads to the spatial heterogeneity of climate impacts and risks in China. To more effectively leverage increasing knowledge about the past, we advocate greater cross-disciplinary collaboration between climate adaption, poverty alleviation and Nature-based Solutions (Nbs). That could provide decision makers with more comprehensive train of thoughts for climate policy making.     

An overview of climate change impacts on the society in China

Society could sustain the impact of climate change by adapting to the change and mitigating risks from adverse effects of increasing changes, so that it can continue maintaining its prospect and improving wellbeing. Nevertheless, climate change is more or less affecting society's functions at different scales, including both individuals and communities. In this review, we discuss the relationship between society and climate change in China from the aspects of the needs at different socioeconomic developing stages. The relationship as well as the current spatial pattern and future risks of the climate change impacts on societies are summarized. The complexity of social and climatic systems leads to the spatial heterogeneity of climate impacts and risks in China. To more effectively leverage increasing knowledge about the past, we advocate greater cross-disciplinary collaboration between climate adaption, poverty alleviation and Nature-based Solutions (Nbs). That could provide decision makers with more comprehensive train of thoughts for climate policy making.     

Molecular and Cellular Basis of Regeneration and Tissue Repair

Tissue repair and regeneration are very complex biological events, whose successful attainment requires far more than mere cell division. However, almost unavoidably they entail cell proliferation as a fundamental premise. Full regeneration or repair cannot be achieved without replacing cells lost to disease or injury, replacement that can only take place via proliferation of surviving cells. This review endeavors to outline the molecular bases of exit from and reentry into the cell cycle. In recent years, the decision to proliferate or not has been seen as mostly the concern of cyclins and cyclin-dependent kinases. This account tries to show that cell cycle inhibitors are as important as the positive regulators in the making of this decision. Finally, the authors wish to suggest that the molecular knowledge of the cell cycle can be harnessed to the benefit of many aspects of regenerative medicine.     

Effects of difficulty on judgemental probability forecasting of control response efficacy

A judgemental control task was framed as a problem of medical decision making. The control parameter of a recursive system (i.e. a patient) was initially set so that output (i.e. a diagnostic index) fell outside a designated criterion range (corresponding to health). Subjects were told to bring the system's output into the designated range by resetting this control parameter (by specifying the dose of a drug). After each of these control responses, they made a probabilistic forecast that it would have the desired effect. It was found that these forecasts were more overconfident when the control task was more difficult but that the reason for this varied. When difficulty was manipulated across subjects, there was little evidence that lower control performance was associated with any lowering of the probabilistic forecasts. When difficulty was manipulated within subjects, they did lower their forecasts for more difficult task variants but did so insufficiently. In fact, relations between probabilistic forecasts of control response efficacy and proportion of those responses that were actually effective was linear with a slope of 0.44.     

内外激励作用下齿轮系统拍击振动特性研究

在考虑齿侧间隙、时变刚度和啮合误差的情况下，利用集中质量法建立了直齿齿轮副拍击振动数学模型。采用四阶变步长Runge．Kutta对模型进行数值求解，研究了内外激励对系统拍击状态、周期响应的影响，以及拍击状态、周期响应与拍击强度的关系。结果表明：内部激励会导致齿轮拍击状态改变和发生倍周期响应，外部激励较小时对齿轮拍击状态影响较小，但会导致系统发生拟周期和倍周期响应。拍击状态对拍击强度影响很大，倍周期响应会降低拍击强度，拟周期响应对拍击强度影响较小。     

Short‐term forecasts of euro area real GDP growth: an assessment of real‐time performance based on vintage data

Forecasters commonly predict real gross domestic product growth from monthly indicators such as industrial production, retail sales and surveys, and therefore require an assessment of the reliability of such tools. While forecast errors related to model specification and unavailability of data in real time have been assessed, the impact of data revisions on forecast accuracy has seldom been evaluated, especially for the euro area. This paper proposes to evaluate the contributions of these three sources of forecast error using a set of data vintages for the euro area. The results show that gains in accuracy of forecasts achieved by using monthly data on actual activity rather than surveys or financial indicators are offset by the fact that the former set of monthly data is harder to forecast and less timely than the latter set. These results provide a benchmark which future research may build on as more vintage datasets become available. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Does democracy require value-neutral science? Analyzing the legitimacy of scientific information in the political sphere

Philosophers now commonly reject the value free ideal for science by arguing that non-epistemic values, including personal or social values, are permissible within the core of scientific research. However, little attention has been paid to the normative political consequences of this position. This paper explores these consequences and shows how political theory is fruitful for proceeding in a world without value-neutral science. I draw attention to an oft-overlooked argument employed by proponents of the value free ideal I dub the “political legitimacy argument.” This argument claims that the value-free ideal follows directly from the foundational principles of liberal democracy. If so, then the use of value-laden scientific information within democratic decision making would be illegitimate on purely political grounds. Despite highlighting this unaddressed and important argument, I show how it can be rejected. By appealing to deliberative democratic theory, I demonstrate scientific information can be value-laden and politically legitimate. The deliberative democratic account I develop is well suited for capturing the intuitions of many opponents of the value free ideal and points to a new set of questions for those interested in values in science.     

不完全信息下多属性决策的证据推理方法

针对权系数未知、属性值具有缺失的不完全信息下多属性决策问题，给出了一种基于证据推理的方法。该方法通过对决策矩阵的规范化处理、不同属性下焦元的确定及评价值计算，获得证据的基本概率分配，然后利用证据合成，并通过信任区间的计算与排序，获得整个方案集的排序。最终，实例表明了该方法的有效性和可行性。