Dynamic Model Averaging and CPI Inflation Forecasts: A Comparison between the Euro Area and the United States

The paper forecasts consumer price inflation in the euro area (EA) and in the USA between 1980:Q1 and 2012:Q4 based on a large set of predictors, with dynamic model averaging (DMA) and dynamic model selection (DMS). DMA/DMS allows not solely for coefficients to change over time, but also for changes in the entire forecasting model over time. DMA/DMS provides on average the best inflation forecasts with regard to alternative approaches (such as the random walk). DMS outperforms DMA. These results are robust for different sample periods and for various forecast horizons. The paper highlights common features between the USA and the EA. First, two groups of predictors forecast inflation: temporary fundamentals that have a frequent impact on inflation but only for short time periods; and persistent fundamentals whose switches are less frequent over time. Second, the importance of some variables (particularly international food commodity prices, house prices and oil prices) as predictors for consumer price index inflation increases when such variables experience large shocks. The paper also shows that significant differences prevail in the forecasting models between the USA and the EA. Such differences can be explained by the structure of these respective economies. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

heory, controls parameter and application of the packed-bed electroosmotic pump

Theory and controls parameters affecting the output pressure and flow rate of the packed-bed electroosmotic pump (p-EOP), including zeta potential ζ, electric intensity E, length of the column L, cross-section area of the column A, dielectric constant ε and viscosity coefficient η of the liquid being pumped, are discussed concisely. And also, the fabrication and application of the p-EOP are introduced.     

PXI在测控系统中的应用

随着有关PXI总线的规范和产品的推出，由于优良的性能指标和适宜的价格，使其受到各相关行业的广泛关注。对风洞测控系统的结构和系统配置作了具体的阐述，并对PXI总线在具体使用中的效果和特点作了较详细的介绍。     

田径训练短跑运动员生理机能评定及负荷诊断

运动员的身体机能评定是合理制定训练计划、确定训练指标、安排训练负荷的依据,是运动员创造运动成绩的生理基础.准确地掌握运动员的身体机能状态,是为了更好地完成训练任务.负荷是由负荷量和负荷强度所组成,反映训练的数量和质量的特征.     

C-banding pattern and nucleolar organizer regions of Cynoglossus semilaevis Günther, 1873

The C-banding pattern and nucleolar organizer regions of the metaphase chromosomes of Cynoglossus semilaevis are reported. The interstitial regions in all chromosomes including the pair of sex chromosomes had positive C-bands, and the 6th and 12th pairs of chromosomes were entirely stained in most cases. Some chromosomes such as the 1st, 2nd, 7th, 8th, 9th and 10th pairs showed C-bands at centromeric or distal ends. The C-banding heretochromatin occupies 30.03% of the total chromosome surface in C. semilaevis,which is similar to that of amphibians such as Mixophyes fasciolatus (30.2%) and M. schevilli (20.7%), but is rather lower than that of cephalochordate Branchiostoma belcheri (54.3%). Silver staining revealed a single pair of nucleolar organizer regions (NORs) located in the telomeric regions of Chromosome 2. The association of NORs with heterochromatin observed in vertebrates also occurs in C. semilaevis as the telomeric regions of Chromosome 2 are always stained positively with C-banding.     

Becker齐次模型参数估计的A-最优设计

利用椭园型偏微分方程极值原理和对称多项式这两种数学工具,解决了三分量 Bech-er 齐次模型(Ⅲ),(Ⅱ)和(Ⅰ)的参数估计的 A-最优设计。     

物理化学实验多媒体课件的设计与应用

论述了物理化学实验课件经过多年的制作实践是如何从内容到方法逐步完善的设计理念 .使完成的物理化学实验课件在教学中得到广泛的应用 ,并收到传统教学所不能获得的教学效果 ,同时也得到了学生和专家以及同行的肯定 .     

热连轧精轧机组温度模型的改进

从实际生产数据入手,研究了温度模型设定精度的现状及设定精度与各影响因素之间的关系,同时还消化了原来的温度模型程序并将其移植到微机上.经大量的离线统计回归分析,提出了一个行之有效的温度模型改进方案.该改进方案的思路同样适合其他热轧生产线.     

平面弹性连杆机构的KED分析

本文放弃了文献中引用的运动学假设和瞬时结构假定,考虑了刚体运动和弹性变形运动之间的耦合项,分析了梁的横向位移对轴向应变的影响。利用虚位移原理和达明贝尔原理,建立了构件和系统的运动微分方程式。以四杆较接机构为例,进行了KED分析。从所得结果可以看出,本文更好地反映出弹性对机构动态误差的影响。     

INFLUENCE OF POLYMER CHARACTERISTICS AND MELT-SPINNING CONDITIONS ON THE PRODUCTION OF HIGH RANDOMNESS 60PHB/PET THERMOTROPIC LIQUID CRYSTAL COPOLYESTER FIBER

Six samples of linear high randomness 60PHB/ PET thermotropic liquid crystal copolyesters are made by melt copolymerization at 290℃ , whose randomness about 0.955 is measured by the discernible 'H-NMR spectrometer. High tenacity, high module fiber is prepared by melt spinning in liquid crystal phase. The effect of molecular weight, shear rate, temperature as well as spinning drawn ratio on the mechanical behavior of 60PHB / PET copolyester fiber are shown that, lower shear rate (2~ 10 s~(-1)), higher temperature melting (300℃ ), lower temperature spinning (280℃ ) and higher molecular weight are favourable to the increase of the fiber mechanical properties. With the variance of drawn ratio, fiber mechanical property has a transition point due to traversion from shear-orientation to drawn-orientation. The copolyester fiber has high crystallinity, high orientation at the crystalline region, high chain orientation and high regular fibrillar structure.