Land-atmosphere coupling amplifies hot extremes over China

Climate extremes, such as extreme hot temperatures and heat waves, can have dramatic societal, economic, and ecological consequences. China has experienced remarkable interannual and decadal changes in hot extremes during the last several decades. However, the underlying mechanisms responsible for changes in the hot extremes over China have not been clearly identified. In this study, we investigate the role of land-atmosphere coupling for hot days and heat waves during summer over China using two long-term ...     

Changes of climate extremes of temperature and precipitation in summer in eastern China associated with changes in atmospheric circulation in East Asia during 1960–2008

Climate extremes and changes in eastern China are closely related to variations of the East Asian summer monsoon and corresponding atmospheric circulations.The relationship between frequencies of temperature and precipitation extremes in China during the last half century is investigated using Singular Value Decomposition analysis.During 1980-1996,there was a typical pattern with fewer hot days and more precipitation extremes in the northern part of eastern China,and more hot days and fewer precipitation extremes in the southern part.This geographic pattern tended to reverse after 1997,with fewer hot days and more extreme precipitation days south of the Yangtze River and vice versa to the north.Differences in atmospheric circulation between the former and latter periods are presented.We conclude that a mid-level anomalous high/low,upper-level anomalous easterlies/westerlies over the north/south of eastern China,a weakened East Asian summer monsoon and associated upper-tropospheric center of cooling(30°N,110°E) are all favorable for the changes in frequencies of temperature and precipitation extremes.     

多孔介质墙体热湿传递实验测试研究

建筑围护结构中的热湿耦合传递规律研究对于了解其传热性能具有重要意义。本文利用大型人工环境舱搭建多层加气混凝土墙体测试实验平台,营造了符合三种典型气候的室外舱温湿度环境并随周期性变化,室内舱控制为空气调节下恒定温湿度条件,测试并记录了多层加气混凝土墙体表面及内部不同位置温湿度变化。墙内距离外表面20 mm处测点的相对湿度在夏热冬冷夏季特征气候下降低了7.88 %,在夏热冬冷冬季特征气候降低了4.11 %,在南海极端热湿特征气候下降低了5.76 %。结果表明热传递对湿传递促进的程度大于湿传递对热传递的作用,在高热、高湿的南海地区,热湿耦合作用对墙体热工性能的影响更大。     

1959～2012年夏季珠三角地区高温热浪的时空 分布特征及其城市热岛效应的影响分析

本文采用珠三角地区9个观测站点1959-2012年夏季(6-8月)逐日02h、08h、14h、20h的温度资料研究珠三角地区夏季高温热浪天气日数和强度的时空分布特征,以及暖夜日数的历年变化趋势,并分析了2000-2012年夏季广州市城市热岛效应对高温热浪天气的影响。研究表明：1)珠三角地区高温热浪日数及强度的时空分布特征相似,空间分布上呈从北向南递减趋势,时间分布上20世纪60年代到80年代呈减少趋势,80年代开始呈增加趋势,21世纪之后大幅增加,并在2007年达到峰值;2)珠三角地区暖夜日数呈增加趋势,且高值区分布与高温热浪日数和强度的分布相似,均发生在90年代末以后;3)1980-2012年夏季广州站各项要素的增加速度均为最快,说明城市热岛效应对广州市区的高温热浪(暖夜)的强度和持续时间均有增强作用;4)2000-2012年夏季广州市6次高温热浪过程中,城区的暖夜日数占总日数的78.6%,郊区的暖夜日数占总日数的14.2%,说明城市热岛效应对城区高温热浪期间夜间温度的影响比白天更为突出。     

Role of land-atmosphere coupling in summer droughts and floods over eastern China for the 1998 and 1999 cases

Droughts and floods are the two most costly climate disasters over China. However, our ability to predict droughts and floods is limited by poor understanding of the atmospheric response to long memory climate drivers such as sea surface temperature and soil moisture. In this study, we investigate soil moisture feedbacks on summer droughts and floods over eastern China for the 1998 and 1999 cases using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations. Soil moisture climatology, derived from a 20-year-long control run, is used to replace soil moisture evolution in uncoupled simulations for 1998 and 1999 summers. Eastern China experienced severe floods during the summer of 1998, while 1999 summer is characterized by a “southern flood and northern drought” pattern. The WRF model generally simulates relatively well the droughts and floods in the two summers. It is found that land-atmosphere coupling contributes substantially to both droughts and floods over northern China while it plays a relatively small role in precipitation anomalies over southern China. Our findings suggest that soil moisture memory help contribute skill to seasonal prediction of droughts and floods over northern China.     

河西走廊内陆河流域极端降水特征分析

水资源是维持内陆河流域复合生态系统的重要纽带.大气降水作为流域水资源的重要来源,其时空分布及强度变化会对流域生态水文过程有着重要影响.本文以河西走廊内陆河流域19个气象站1960—2012年逐日降水资料为基础,构建了最大1d降水量、最大连续5d降水量和非常湿天降水总量等极端降水指标,通过采用多种极值概率分布模型探讨研究区极端降水指标在频次、强度和贡献率方面的变化,从而为分析极端降水对流域生态水文过程的影响提供科学依据.结果表明,基于GEV最优概率分布模型,得出研究区超过5年一遇的最大1d降水量、最大连续5d降水量、非常湿天降水总量近年来发生次数有所增加,尤其是2000年以后增加更为明显;研究区极端降水强度在2000年以后也明显增强;在极端降水量对年降水总量的贡献率方面,近年来石羊河流域总体呈现增加趋势,黑河流域上游呈现增加趋势、中游和下游以下降趋势为主,疏勒河流域上游和下游呈现增加趋势,中游则以下降趋势为主.     

气候变化与气象灾害

回顾了国际上气候变暖背景下极端天气和气候事件研究的基本成果，重点讨论了我国旱灾、暴雨洪灾，高温热浪、霜冻、低温冷害和沙尘暴等气象灾害的变化特点。指出：在过去50多年气候明显变暖的背景下，华南，西北东部和东北东部随着降水量的减少，降水日数也显著减少，干旱化倾向十分明显；长江流域的强降水过程明显趋于增多，发生洪涝灾害的频率也趋于增加。气候变暖最显著的影响之一是无霜期显著增加。虽然在过去50多年中我国沙尘暴发生频率和范围总体趋于减少，但由于持续干旱的影响，使得1998年以来又出现沙尘暴增加的势头。     

高寒草甸地区陆面过程耦合模式与辐射研究

本文论述了陆气相互作用的研究意义与现状.在原有研究工作基础上,针对中国科学院高寒草甸站地区陆气水热传输过程,提出了一个多层陆面过程耦合模式,特别给出了导水率的计算模型和修正后的根系吸水模式,对植物内部湍流交换的物理过程作了深入研究.本文还介绍了当地的气候概况和野外观测情况,利用本模式对中国科学院高寒草甸站地区陆气水热交换过程进行了数值模拟,模拟结果与实测值吻合较好,证明该模式成功地模拟了陆气相互作用过程,可为当地合理利用水热资源提供科学依据.为了解植被在陆气相互作用的影响,本文又进行了敏感性数值试验.     

Response of the East Asian climate system to water and heat changes of global frozen soil using NCAR CAM model

Under the condition of land-atmosphere heat and water conservation, a set of sensitive numerical experiments are set up to investigate the response of the East Asian climate system to global frozen soil change. This is done by introducing the supercooled soil water process into the Community Land Model (CLM3.0), which has been coupled to the National Center of Atmospheric Research Community Atmosphere Model (CAM3.1). Results show that:(1) The ratio between soil ice and soil water in CLM3.0 is clearly changed by the supercooled soil water process. Ground surface temperature and soil temperature are also affected. (2) The Eurasian (including East Asian) climate system is sensitive to changes of heat and water in frozen soil regions. In January, the Aleutian low sea level pressure circulation is strengthened, Ural blocking high at 500 hPa weakened, and East Asian trough weakened. In July, sea level pressure over the Aleutian Islands region is significantly reduced; there are negative anomalies of 500 hPa geopotential height over the East Asian mainland, and positive anomalies over the East Asian ocean. (3) In January, the southerly component of the 850 hPa wind field over East Asia increases, indicating a weakened winter monsoon. In July, cyclonic anomalies appear on the East Asian mainland while there are anticyclonic anomalies over the ocean, reflective of a strengthened east coast summer monsoon. (4) Summer rainfall in East Asia changed significantly, including substantial precipitation increase on the southern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, central Yangtze River Basin, and northeast China. Summer rainfall significantly decreased in south China and Hainan Island, but slightly decreased in central and north China. Further analysis showed considerable upper air motion along ~30°N latitude, with substantial descent of air at its north and south sides. Warm and humid air from the Northeast Pacific converged with cold air from northern land areas, representing the main cause of the precipitation anomalies.     

我国极端温度事件的定义和趋势分析

 利用1961-2005年45 a中国日平均温度的站点资料和累积频率的统计方法,确定了以90%（10%）累积频率为标准的日、旬、月和季四种不同时间尺度的极端高（低）温事件的阈值。分析表明,日尺度阈值（简称“日阈值”）用于检测极端高（低）温事件最为合理。但在日阈值的季节变化中包含系统性的天气扰动,因此需对其进行低通滤波,滤去8日以下的波动,最终可得到较为合理的检测极端温度事件的日阈值。对用日阈值检测出的全国极端温度事件,定义频数（日平均温度等于或超过高阈值的次数）和平均强度（极端温度事件的日平均温度总和与频数的比值）两个参数进行分析,发现频数的线性趋势表现为：高温事件（大于等于高阈值）中,内蒙古和新疆北部均为大趋势区,而西南地区为小趋势区,低温事件（小于等于低阈值）则相反,趋势显著的地区为高温事件中的东北、华北和青藏高原一带。平均强度的线性趋势表现为：高温事件中,我国东北地区为负趋势的大值区,云南西北部和海南省大部分地区为正趋势的大值区。低温事件则相反,趋势显著区则为高、低温事件中25°N的以南地区。     

Land-atmosphere coupling and climate change in Europe

Increasing greenhouse gas concentrations are expected to enhance the interannual variability of summer climate in Europe and other mid-latitude regions, potentially causing more frequent heatwaves. Climate models consistently predict an increase in the variability of summer temperatures in these areas, but the underlying mechanisms responsible for this increase remain uncertain. Here we explore these mechanisms using regional simulations of recent and future climatic conditions with and without land-atmosphere interactions. Our results indicate that the increase in summer temperature variability predicted in central and eastern Europe is mainly due to feedbacks between the land surface and the atmosphere. Furthermore, they suggest that land-atmosphere interactions increase climate variability in this region because climatic regimes in Europe shift northwards in response to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, creating a new transitional climate zone with strong land-atmosphere coupling in central and eastern Europe. These findings emphasize the importance of soil-moisture-temperature feedbacks (in addition to soil-moisture-precipitation feedbacks) in influencing summer climate variability and the potential migration of climate zones with strong land-atmosphere coupling as a consequence of global warming. This highlights the crucial role of land-atmosphere interactions in future climate change.     

Seasonal transition and its boundary layer characteristics in Anduo area of Tibetan Plateau

Using the data, especially the GPS rawinsode data, observed in Anduo area of the Tibetan Plateau during the intensive observation period of GAME/Tibet in 1998, the transition from the dry to the rainy season along with their boundary layer characteristics is analyzed comprehensively. The result shows that the formation of the rainy season in Anduo area is related closely to the general atmospheric circulation. The westerly belt moving north and the southeast damp current are basic conditions for development of the rainy season in Anduo area. In the dry season, the air is drier, air temperature higher, and the atmospheric boundary layer is strongly developed to cause its maximum height to reach about 3550 m. Moreover the sensible heat flux is dominant, and the latent heat flux is small in the interaction of land-atmosphere energy exchange, and a reverse humidity phenomenon occurs frequently. In the rainy season, the air is damper, air temperature lower, and the ABL height, with maximum of only about 2300 m, is lower. And the sensible heat flux becomes much smaller, the latent heat flux much larger in the interaction of land-atmosphere energy exchange. The reverse humidity phenomenon disappears.     

基于陆气耦合的城市雨洪模拟技术研究进展

对汇流时间短、暴雨时程集中且短期内降水强度大的城市区域而言,暴雨洪涝灾害预见期的延长可以为制定应急预案和实施防汛抢险争取更多的响应时间,降低城市暴雨洪涝事件带来的潜在危害．延长城市暴雨洪涝灾害预见期的有效措施之一,是采用基于数值天气预报技术和多源/高分辨率数据资料的陆气耦合城市雨洪模拟技术进行雨洪过程模拟和灾害预报．本文归纳总结了城市雨洪过程模拟和预报中常用的5类降水输入数据及各类降水数据的适用条件;总结了数值天气预报技术在区域强降水模拟方面的研究进展及存在的问题;梳理了城市雨洪过程模拟中采用的常见方法及优缺点;总结了数值降水预报技术应用于城市雨洪过程模拟和预报的最新研究进展．在此基础上,提出了基于陆气耦合的城市雨洪模拟技术需要解决的关键问题和应对之策,指出在当前城市雨洪模拟技术较为成熟的情况下,减小数值降水预报结果的不确定性和提高城市雨洪过程模拟的精细化程度是提高城市暴雨洪涝灾害预报准确性的主要手段．      

极端温度事件区域性的分析方法及其结果

根据1961-2002年42年中国站点的日最高、最低温度资料,运用累积频率的阈值统计方法,分析了我国东部地区极端高温、极端低温以及全国的温度日较差极端事件的区域性特征.本研究中的极端温度事件的区域性指的是,当某单站发生极端温度事件的同时,全国其余各站也发生同一种极端温度事件的概率分布,即成片发生极端温度事件的区域尺度.对每个研究站点均可寻找出一个与基准站同时发生极端温度事件的高概率站群,近似地用面积指数来表征站点群的区域大小,以此衡量成片发生极端温度事件的区域大小.结果指出:我国东部地区的极端高温、低温事件的面积指数的大值区分布较为一致,我国华南地区、江淮地区、华北地区和东北地区的面积指数的大值区分别集中在江西省和湖南省的南部,江西省北部和长三角地区,陕西省和山东半岛以及内蒙古东北部和黑龙江南部.即说明,无论是极端高温事件还是低温事件,上述地区的区域敏感性均较高,同时发生极端高温(低温)事件的区域尺度较大.四个区域的区域平均的差异表现为:在极端高温事件中,江淮地区的面积指数最大,华北地区的最小.在极端低温事件中,华南地区的面积指数最大,而江淮和东北地区的最小.同时,对温度日较差的极值事件分析可知,极端高值事件...     

增强型地热系统热流固耦合模型及数值模拟

增强型地热系统(EGS)利用水力压裂地下高温岩体形成人工热储,通过载热流体循环提取干热岩(HDR)所存储的地热能,其开采过程包含渗流、热能交换及岩体介质变形,为典型的热流固(THM)耦合问题。将裂隙岩体视作基于离散裂隙网络和基质岩体的双重介质,给出THM耦合的数学模型,基于商业有限元软件COMSOL Mutilphysics进行二次开发,实现裂隙岩体温度场、渗流场和应力场的全耦合求解。利用一个已知解析解的算例验证耦合模型和全耦合求解方法的正确性。最后利用随机生成的二维裂隙网络模型模拟EGS的运行过程,分析干热岩储层内渗流、温度、应力及变形的分布规律。计算结果表明,储层内的贯通裂隙构成主要导水区,水的对流传热作用明显;高压水注入和温度变化导致岩体裂隙发生位移,改变储层的传输特性,进而影响地热能的提取;考虑THM耦合作用对于研究增强型地热系统的的利用效率和运行规律非常有必要。     

非线性随机波与直墙相互作用的数值计算及统计分析

就如何应用非线性随机波及其与直墙相互作用的数学模型进行模拟计算作一叙述,通过近20种组合的波面、波压强、合压力和合力矩等运动和动力过程的模拟计算,并且对模拟过程进行了谱估计及统计分析,形成相应的“波高”、周期、极值等序列,结果表明：应用本文模式进行计算得到的非线性随机波与直墙相互作用的波动过程天然海浪特性,估计谱与理论谱参数一致,同时计算速度快、精度高。     

Lorenz type Chaos (Turbulence) of Five Waves Mixing in Uniform Streaming Plasma

近年来,等离子体系统非线性效应的研究十分活跃〔１～５〕．由于其负能量和正能量的波耦合能够导致非线性性质的不稳定性．故称为突发性不稳定性〔５〕．这在非线性效应的等离子体场中存在是一个十分有趣的现象．纵波与横波一样,同样能够携带负能量．因此,从原理上说这两种辐射波都能满足多方参与的非线性不稳定性的需要〔４～６〕．在文献〔５～７〕中,由于均匀流动的等离子体中三个纵波和二个横波共处于一个非线性不稳定的谐振五波相互作用系统,从而获得了Ｌｏｒｅｎｚ型混沌．本文证明了在均匀流动等离子体中,五个单色波的非线性耦合波方程可以重新写成同构于描述混沌的Ｌｏｒｅｎｚ方程,预言在此过程中出现Ｌｏｒｅｎｚ型混沌的可能性     

利用MODIS数据估算晴空半干旱地表潜热通量

为研究我国半干旱区域地表潜热通量分布特征, 建立了一套不需要将地面气象观测数据作为输入而仅用卫星数据来估算晴空条件下半干旱地表潜热能量的方案。该方案设计了针对半干旱地表的净辐射通量参数化方法和土壤热通量估算模型, 利用S-SEBI模型计算蒸发比率, 根据能量平衡原理得到潜热通量。基于MODIS陆地和大气产品, 利用该方案进行潜热通量估算研究,并采用2003, 2004和2005年6?11月间退化草地和农田晴空数据进行验证。与地面站点观测数据对比结果表明该方案能有效计算地表潜热通量: 在退化草地和农田两个站点上, 该方案计算的地表潜热通量的均方根误差分别为60.4和64.6 W/m², 平均偏差分别为18.6和32.4 W/m²。     

Projected changes in climate extremes over China in the 21st century from a high resolution regional climate model (RegCM3)

Based on a consecutive simulation of the 21st century conducted by RegCM3, changes in climate extremes over China are investigated, following abasic validation of the model performances in simulating present climate. The model is one-way nested within the global model of CCSR/NIES/FRCGC MIROC3.2_hires. A total of 150-years (1951-2100) transient simulation is carried out at 25 km grid spacing under the IPCC SRES A1B scenario. The indices of the extremesincludes SU (summer days), FD (frost days), GSL (growing season length) for temperature, SDII (simple daily intensity index), R10 (no. of days with precipitation 10 mm/d), and CDD (consecutive dry days) for precipitation. Results show that the model can reproduce both the spatial distribution and the values of the present day annual mean temperature and precipitationwell, and it also shows good performances in simulating the extreme indices. Following the significant warming, the indices of SU and GSL for warm events will increase while the indices of FD for cold events will decrease over China. Heavy precipitation events as measured by SDII and R10 show an general increase over the region, except the decrease ofR10 in the Northeast and central Tibetan Plateau andless change or decrease of it along the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Decrease of drynessas measured by CDD over northern part of China while increase of it over the Tibetan Plateau, Sichuan Basin and other places in southern China are simulated by the model. This leads to the less change of the regional mean CDD in the time series in the 21st century unlike the other indices, which show clear trend of change following the time evolution.     

Vegetation effects on mean daily maximum and minimum surface air temperatures over China

Changes in the daily maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) surface air temperatures and the associated temperature extremes have severe consequences on human society and the natural environment. In this study, we assess vegetation effects on mean Tmax and Tmin over China by computing a vegetation feedback parameter using the satellite-sensed Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and observed temperatures for the period 1982–2002. In all seasons, vegetation exerts a much stronger forcing on Tmax than on Tmin, and thus has a substantial effect on the diurnal temperature range (DTR) over China. Significant positive feedbacks on Tmax and the DTR occupy many areas of China with the feedback parameters exceeding 1°C (0.1 NDVI)–1, while significant negative effects only appear over the summertime climatic and ecological transition zone of northern China and some other isolated areas. Also, the vegetation feedbacks are found to vary with season. In areas where significant feedbacks occur, vegetation contributes to typically 10%–30% of the total variances in Tmax, Tmin, and the DTR. These findings suggest that vegetation memory offers the potential for improving monthly-to-seasonal forecasting of Tmax and Tmin, and the associated temperature extremes over China. Meanwhile, the limitations and uncertainties of the study should be recognized.