基于遥感与GIS的朋曲流域冰川及冰湖变化研究

由于全球变暖，冰川正逐年退缩，随之引发的冰湖溃决洪水已不容忽视，但静态和孤立地研究冰湖已不能满足人们对冰湖信息的需求．本文基于20世纪70年代的地形图数据和2000年以来的ASTER遥感影像数据，使用GIS手段矢量化朋曲流域20世纪70年代和近期的冰川及冰湖的空间分布，并进行编目．对于获得的空间数据分析结果表明，在过去30年里该区冰川面积减少近9％，冰湖面积则增加了13％，在此基础上比较二者的联系和变化，识别出了24个可能发生溃决的冰湖，这为朋曲流域建立一套冰湖溃决预警系统提供依据；同时，对于研究其他类似地区的冰湖溃决现象也具有指导意义。     

新疆冰湖溃决灾害风险评价与预警研究

受全球气候变暖及人类活动的影响,冰湖溃决灾害已成为当前新疆地区经济可持续发展中的突出问题之一。利用1977(MSS)～2015年Landsat影像、2015年的Google Earth高精度影像和DEM等数据解译获取新疆冰湖的时空分布信息,并选取导致冰湖溃决的主要影响因子,运用MATLAB和SPSS等软件,利用西北地区已有冰湖数据作为训练样本拟合评价方程,建立了新疆冰湖溃决风险评价模型和基于BP神经网络算法的预警模型。结果表明:(1)1977年以来新疆三大山系中冰湖的数量和面积不断增加,冰湖数量上增加了62.0%,冰湖面积增长率为0.98 km~2·a~(-1),但增长率呈现逐年减小的趋势;(2)对分布在新疆范围内的17个典型冰湖溃决风险评价的结果显示:有5个冰湖为高危风险、5个冰湖为中等风险、7个冰湖为低等风险,新疆大约29%的冰湖需要进行实时监测。     

1990—2020年那曲地区冰湖变化研究

基于Landsat遥感影像,采用目视解译的方法提取了青藏高原内部那曲地区冰湖和冰川1990、2000、2010及2020年4期边界数据,并分析近30年来该地区冰湖变化的特征与原因．结果表明:那曲地区现有冰湖255个,总面积（27.829±4.62） km2,冰湖主要集中在东南部,其次是西南部;1990—2020年,研究区新增冰湖72个,面积增长6.14 km2;冰湖扩张趋势明显,具体表现为低海拔地区（≤4 700 m）原有冰湖快速扩张,较高海拔地区（>5 100~5 700 m）新增冰湖集中出现;气温与降水是冰湖变化的关键因素,由于降水与气温分布及变化存在时空差异,冰湖变化呈现“南快北慢,逐期加快”的特征;冰湖与冰川的位置关系也会影响冰湖变化,离冰川位置越近,对冰湖发育越有利,同时与冰湖接触的冰川退缩速率相较于其余冰川有更大的退缩速率,但冰川与冰湖面积变化速率并无明显相关性．      

冰碛湖库容数学模型的计算方法

全球气候的变暖致使冰湖溃决灾害频繁发生,严重威胁高原地区人民生命财产安全,随之对于冰湖溃决的研究也愈发深入,冰湖库容量作为冰湖研究基础参数,对冰湖危险性评价、冰湖溃决洪峰流量以及模拟洪水演进具有不可代替的作用。计算冰湖库容的方法主要有实地测量和冰碛湖库容计算公式,由于冰碛湖多位于高山极高山地区,对每个冰湖进行实地测量难以实现,传统冰湖库容的计算方法是基于大量冰湖参数与冰湖库容的统计关系,建立冰碛湖库容经验公式,虽然其拟合优度相对较高,但其相关性只能衡量冰碛湖面积和冰碛湖库容在统计规律上的一致性,对于精确计算冰碛湖库容仍有难以完成。本文通过文献资料整理、结合实地考察对湖盆形态模拟分析,将典型冰碛湖湖盆分为三段,通过模拟建立数学模型,以冰湖面积为约束条件,抽象成数学中的曲面立体模型,分别计算其形态体积,由此推算出计算冰湖体积的表达式V=0.0717w²l (w-冰碛湖湖宽;l-冰碛湖整体长度),并利用该模型验证了公式的有效精确性,为我国喜马拉雅山地区冰碛湖库容计算提供理论参考。     

Late Pleistocene glaciation of the Changbai Mountains in northeastern China

The Changbai Mountains （2749 m a.s.l.） in northeastern China are one of the typical mountain regions with glaciation since late Pleistocene as evidenced by well-preserved erosive and accumulative landforms at elevations above 2000 m a.s.l, formed by glaciers around the crater lake, Tianchi Lake. Cirque glaciers developed on both the inner and outer sides of the volcanic cone. Well-preserved cirques, glacial trough valleys, glacial threholds, polished surfaces of the glacial erratics and the moraine ridges indicate that several glaciation processes took place during the last glacial period in this region. Resuits of optically stimulated luminescence （OSL） dating on the moraine sediments, and the K/Ar, thermal ionization mass spectrometry （TIMS）, electronic spinning resonance （ESR） dating on the volcanic rocks suggest two periods of glacier advances. One is named the Black Wind Mouth glacier advance taking place on the west and north slopes of the volcanic cone at an elevation of 2000-2100 m a.s.l., which is dated to about 20 ka, being the result of the Last Glacial Maximum （LGM）. The other is named the Meteorological Station glacier advance at the elevation of 2400-2600 m a.s.l., dated to 11 ka during the late glacial period, and is tentatively correlated to the Younger Dryas stage. The scope of the former glacier advance is larger than that of the latter. Regional comparisons showed that the glacial sequences in the Changbai Mountains are similar to other glaciated areas in eastern Asia during the later part of the last glacial cycle.     

A high-resolution environmental change record since 19 cal ka BP in Pumoyum Co,southern Tibet

A 380-cm-long sediment core was acquired from the deep water area of Pumoyum Co, southern Tibet. Twenty-five plant residue samples were selected, and organic carbon stable isotopes were obtained using the AMS ¹⁴C chronological method. The ¹⁴C age and carbon reservoir effect were calibrated with surface sedimentation rate measurements using ²¹⁰Pb dating. Results showed that the core sediment deposited over 19 cal ka BP. Based on a multi-proxy analysis of TOC and IC contents, grain size and pollen assemblage data, the palaeoclimatic evolution of Pumoyum Co was reconstructed since the last glacial. Pumoyum Co was a shallow lake prior to 16.2 cal ka BP; although the glacier around the lake began to melt due to increasing temperatures, climate was still cold and dry. In the interval of 16.2–11.8 cal ka BP, the sedimentary environment fluctuated drastically and frequently. Two cold-events occurred at 14.2 and 11.8 cal ka BP, and these may correspond to the Older Dryas and the Younger Dryas events, respectively. After 11.8 cal ka BP, Pumoyun Co developed into the deep lake as it is now. The lake water temperature was relatively lower at that time because of influx of cold water from glacial meltwater entering the lake. As a result, the multi-proxy indicators showed no sign of warm conditions. Comparisons between the sedimentary record of Pumoyum Co with that of other lakes of the same age in southern Tibet indicate a warmer climate following the last deglaciation influenced the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. These results imply that the southwest Asian monsoon gradually became stronger since the deglaciation during its expansion to the inner plateau. The glacial-supplied water of the lake responded sensitively to cold-events. The entire southern Tibet region was dominantly influenced climatically by the southwest Asian monsoon during the Holocene.     

Large subglacial lakes in East Antarctica at the onset of fast-flowing ice streams

Water plays a crucial role in ice-sheet stability and the onset of ice streams. Subglacial lake water moves between lakes and rapidly drains, causing catastrophic floods. The exact mechanisms by which subglacial lakes influence ice-sheet dynamics are unknown, however, and large subglacial lakes have not been closely associated with rapidly flowing ice streams. Here we use satellite imagery and ice-surface elevations to identify a region of subglacial lakes, similar in total area to Lake Vostok, at the onset region of the Recovery Glacier ice stream in East Antarctica and predicted by ice-sheet models. We define four lakes through extensive, flat, featureless regions of ice surface bounded by upstream troughs and downstream ridges. Using ice velocities determined using interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR), we find the onset of rapid flow (moving at 20 to 30 m yr(-1)) of the tributaries to the Recovery Glacier ice stream in a 280-km-wide segment at the downslope margins of these four subglacial lakes. We conclude that the subglacial lakes initiate and maintain rapid ice flow through either active modification of the basal thermal regime of the ice sheet by lake accretion or through scouring bedrock channels in periodic drainage events. We suggest that the role of subglacial lakes needs to be considered in ice-sheet mass balance assessments.     

Water balance estimates of ten greatest lakes in China using ICESat and Landsat data

Lake level and area variations are sensitive to regional climate changes and can be used to indirectly estimate water balances of lakes. In this study, 10 of the largest lakes in China, ～1000 km² or larger, are examined to determine changes in lake level and area derived respectively from ICESat and Landsat data recorded between 2003 and 2009. The time series of lake level and area of Selin Co, Nam Co, and Qinghai Lake in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and Xingkai Lake in northeastern China exhibit an increasing trend, with Selin Co showing the fastest rise in lake level (0.69 m/a), area (32.59 km²/a), and volume (1.25 km³/a) among the 10 examined lakes. Bosten and Hulun lakes in the arid and semiarid region of northern China show a decline in both lake level and area, with Bosten Lake showing the largest decrease in lake level (?0.43 m/a) and Hulun Lake showing the largest area shrinkage (?35.56 km²/a). However, Dongting, Poyang, Taihu, and Hongze lakes in the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin present seasonal variability without any apparent tendencies. The lake level and area show strong correlations for Selin Co, Nam Co, Qinghai, Poyang, Hulun, and Bosten lakes (R ² >0.80) and for Taihu, Hongze, and Xingkai lakes (～0.70) and weak correlation for East Dongting Lake (0.37). The lake level changes and water volume changes are in very good agreement for all lakes (R ² > 0.98). Water balances of the 10 lakes are derived on the basis of both lake level and area changes, with Selin Co, Nam Co, Qinghai, and Xingkai lakes showing positive water budgets of 9.08, 4.07, 2.88, and 1.09 km³, respectively. Bosten and Hulun lakes show negative budgets of ?3.01 and ?4.73 km³, respectively, and the four lakes along the Yangtze River show no obvious variations. Possible explanations for the lake level and area changes in these four lakes are also discussed. This study suggests that satellite remote sensing could serve as a fast and effective tool for estimating lake water balance.     

Rapid discharge connects Antarctic subglacial lakes

The existence of many subglacial lakes provides clear evidence for the widespread presence of water beneath the East Antarctic ice sheet, but the hydrology beneath this ice mass is poorly understood. Such knowledge is critical to understanding ice flow, basal water transfer to the ice margin, glacial landform development and subglacial lake habitats. Here we present ice-sheet surface elevation changes in central East Antarctica that we interpret to represent rapid discharge from a subglacial lake. Our observations indicate that during a period of 16 months, 1.8 km3 of water was transferred over 290 km to at least two other subglacial lakes. While viscous deformation of the ice roof above may moderate discharge, the intrinsic instability of such a system suggests that discharge events are a common mode of basal drainage. If large lakes, such as Lake Vostok or Lake Concordia, are pressurizing, it is possible that substantial discharges could reach the coast. Our observations conflict with expectations that subglacial lakes have long residence times and slow circulations, and we suggest that entire subglacial drainage basins may be flushed periodically. The rapid transfer of water between lakes would result in large-scale solute and microbe relocation, and drainage system contamination from in situ exploration is, therefore, a distinct risk.     

Chemical and biological trends during lake evolution in recently deglaciated terrain

As newly formed landscapes evolve, physical and biological changes occur that are collectively known as primary succession. Although succession is a fundamental concept in ecology, it is poorly understood in the context of aquatic environments. The prevailing view is that lakes become more enriched in nutrients as they age, leading to increased biological production. Here we report the opposite pattern of lake development, observed from the water chemistry of lakes that formed at various times within the past 10,000 years during glacial retreat at Glacier Bay, Alaska. The lakes have grown more dilute and acidic with time, accumulated dissolved organic carbon and undergone a transient rise in nitrogen concentration, all as a result of successional changes in surrounding vegetation and soils. Similar trends are evident from fossil diatom stratigraphy of lake sediment cores. These results demonstrate a tight hydrologic coupling between terrestrial and aquatic environments during the colonization of newly deglaciated landscapes, and provide a conceptual basis for mechanisms of primary succession in boreal lake ecosystems.     

西藏冰湖溃决频次与径流峰值流量相关性分析

冰湖溃决事件频繁发生,严重阻碍西藏自治区区域社会经济发展,影响社会稳定。随着气候变暖,冰川减薄后退,冰川径流量增大,冰湖溃决风险上升。基于西藏自治区东南地区的嘎隆拉冰川径流观测资料,分析了2017—2019年消融期间5—9月冰川径流变化特征,探讨了西藏1931—2020年冰湖溃决事件发生的频次与径流峰值流量的关系。结果表明：在1931—2020年,西藏地区共发生冰湖溃决事件32次,集中在5—9月发生;在旬变化上,极大值频次呈单峰结构,在7月上旬频次最高;冰湖溃决频次与径流峰值流量显著相关,相关系数为0.673,随着径流增大,冰湖溃决发生的频次逐渐增大。在气候变暖的背景下,冰川融化引发的冰湖溃决灾害应引起重视,要加强冰川消融径流观测及冰湖水位的监测,进行冰湖溃决洪水预报。     

Diatoms from the southwestern continental slope, South China Sea, and their paleoenvironmental significance since the last glacial times

A quantitative study was undertaken on diatoms from cores (SA08-34) obtained from the southwestern continental slope of the South China Sea (SCS). A total of 165 diatom species belonging to 45 genera were identified. We constructed a stratigraphic subdivision and correlation according to the characteristics of diatom assemblages together with ¹⁴C dating and carbonate analysis. We also discuss the sedimentary environment in the sea area since the last glacial times. The research shows that the diatom assemblages coincide with interglacial and glacial times, and changes in diatom abundance reflect the instability of the climate in the southern part of the SCS, such that short-term, temperature descending events correlate with the interglacial interval. The abundance of diatoms is relevant to interglacial and glacial times, since high abundance values were associated with an interglacial interval, and low abundance values with the last glacial maximum. We assume that strong upwelling developed in the interglacial interval, the development of which was influenced by variations of monsoons in the East Asian region.     

High-altitude salt lake elevation changes and glacial ablation in Central Tibet, 2000-2010

This research quantifies lake level variations in the Siling Co, Co’e and Bangor Co salt lakes in Central Tibet from 1976 to 2010, and most notably for the 2000-2010 periods. In particular, the effects of different water replenishment modes on the lakes have been analyzed. Here we have provided new evidences for climate warming and accelerated glacial ablation on the Central Tibetan Plateau from 2000 to 2010. Based on fieldwork involving Differential Global Positioning System (DGPS) surveying and Remote Sensing (RS) interpretations of the lake area, we have drawn the following conclusions. (1) From 1976 to 2010, the process of lake level variation in Siling Co can be divided into two stages. From 1976 to 2000, the lake level rose 4.3 m in a steady fashion (from 4530 to 4534.3 m); the rise rate was 0.18 m/a. From 2000 to 2010, the lake level rapidly rose 8.2 m (from 4534.3 to 4542.5 m), with a dramatically higher rise rate of 0.82 m/a. Compared with the rapidly increasing lake level of Siling Co from 2000 to 2010, the fluctuations observed at Co’e and Bangor Co were smooth and inconspicuous. (2) From 1976 to 2009, the lake area of Siling Co experienced a steady-rapid-steady expansion pattern. The lake area of Siling Co increased 656.64 km2 in the 34 years to 2010, a proportional growth of 39.4%. This was particularly significant in the 2000-2010 period, when the lake area of Siling Co increased by 549.77 km2, a proportional growth of 30.6%. (3) According to correlation analysis, the rise in regional temperatures, which has led to the ablation of glaciers, is the main reason for the rapid rise in Siling Co lake levels in the 10 years to 2010. During this period, Siling Co rose approximately 8 m as the direct result of glacial melting. An increase in precipitation in the Siling Co catchment area is the secondary factor. This contrasts with Bangor Co, where the dominant factor in lake level change is the long-term increase in precipitation; here, the increasing temperature is the secondary factor.     

西藏普兰地区第四纪以来冰锯作用研究

为了验证西藏普兰地区冰川作用对地形演化的影响, 选取纳木那尼峰、喜马拉雅山和冈底斯山3个区域, 利用数字高程模型(DEM)数据和遥感影像, 对现代冰川与末次冰盛期(LGM)古冰川平衡线高度(ELA)、冰川作用区坡度与高程的关系以及冰川分布的高程频谱进行计算和分析。结果显示, 研究区内冰川剥蚀作用显著、坡度降低最明显的地带位于LGM古冰川平衡线附近, 并在一定程度上限制山脉的高度。根据冰川地貌特征参数和前人研究结果, 认为气候是影响冰锯作用的主要因素。冰期时, 研究区内西风急流南移, 风速增强, 降水量增多, 为冰川发育创造良好条件, 冰锯作用也增强。对于构造抬升强烈的山脉(如纳木那尼峰), 虽然冰锯作用得到加强, 但是构造抬升增加的山脉高度不会完全被冰锯作用抵消。     

柴达木循环经济试验区氯元素迁移及转化分析

青海柴达木循环经济试验区主要为氯化物型盐湖,在开发过程中会产生大量含氯副产物。平衡和消纳这些含氯副产物,对于实现盐湖产业链中的氯平衡具有重要意义。从柴达木循环经济试验区总体规划的主要产品出发,分析了氯元素在规划产品中的工业代谢过程,提出了氯平衡和氯化钙对盐湖的潜在污染问题是盐湖氯元素利用面临的两大主要问题,转化为固体产品的固定化过程、转化为可外销有机氯产品的转移过程和氯化钙的清洁储存过程是其3种迁移转化途径。这3种途径若付诸实施,有望实现试验区氯元素的基本平衡。     

Enhanced ice sheet growth in Eurasia owing to adjacent ice-dammed lakes

Large proglacial lakes cool regional summer climate because of their large heat capacity, and have been shown to modify precipitation through mesoscale atmospheric feedbacks, as in the case of Lake Agassiz. Several large ice-dammed lakes, with a combined area twice that of the Caspian Sea, were formed in northern Eurasia about 90,000 years ago, during the last glacial period when an ice sheet centred over the Barents and Kara seas blocked the large northbound Russian rivers. Here we present high-resolution simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model that explicitly simulates the surface mass balance of the ice sheet. We show that the main influence of the Eurasian proglacial lakes was a significant reduction of ice sheet melting at the southern margin of the Barents-Kara ice sheet through strong regional summer cooling over large parts of Russia. In our simulations, the summer melt reduction clearly outweighs lake-induced decreases in moisture and hence snowfall, such as has been reported earlier for Lake Agassiz. We conclude that the summer cooling mechanism from proglacial lakes accelerated ice sheet growth and delayed ice sheet decay in Eurasia and probably also in North America.     

巴丹吉林沙漠湖泊面积与水位的非线性关系模拟研究

位于内蒙古阿拉善盟的巴丹吉林沙漠是中国第二大沙漠,以其存在世界上最高的沙山以及约100个湖泊而著称.现今湖面海拔一般为1 150~1 200m,前人研究认为在过去3万年以来的某些时期存在更高的湖面.假设沙丘洼地的形态基本保持不变,可以根据现今湖泊洼地的三维形态来模拟高湖面时期的湖泊群分布特征和总面积.以90m分辨率的DEM数据为基础,对若干典型洼地等高面面积随高程的变化进行了分析,发现可以用幂函数和多项式2种非线性方程模拟.多数情况下需要多项式,但一般只要达到3阶就可以精确拟合.对于湖泊洼地,由于很少有湖水最大深度的数据,湖底最低高程往往是未知的.利用湖面以上的等高面数据建立拟合程度最佳的非线性函数可以反推最低高程,但仍然存在不确定性.这一点对恢复历史上的高湖面形态并没有影响.     

基于LEGOS HYDROWEB的青藏高原湖泊群水位和面积动态变化分析

湖泊面积和水位的变化客观地反映了区域水资源的时空变化过程。利用LEGOS HYDROWEB提供的湖泊信息数据,对青藏高原1993~2014年21年间63个典型湖泊的水位变化,以及其中59个湖泊的面积变化趋势进行分析。根据变化趋势将湖泊分为增长型、稳定型和衰退型;并在这三种类型的湖泊中分别选取两个典型湖泊进行回归分析。结果表明:63个湖泊中水位增长型湖泊42个,稳定型湖泊12个,衰退型9个;59个湖泊中面积增长型湖泊32个,稳定型19个,衰退型8个。对于增长型湖泊而言,水位和面积增长最大是Ziling湖,分别增长了10.90 m和361.72 km~2;衰退型湖泊中水位和面积衰退趋势最大的是Yamzho-yumco湖,分别减少了2.29 m和28.65 km2。高原内陆水体的水位和面积的动态变化对研究气候演变和地表水资源的影响具有重要意义。     

冰碛物年代及其环境变化

冰碛物年代一直是冰川学研究的一个重要内容，也是环境变化深入研究的对象，冰川沉积物对于气候地层的建立起着不可忽视的作用。但是由于冰碛物自身与海洋、黄土等记录环境变化的内容相比存在局限性，所以造成对冰期划分，对比的不利。另外，自身年代缺乏也限制着全球冰期的划分与对比，笔者认为，目前的冰碛物研究对于气候地层起到了补充、验证的作用，在较大的时间尺度上是可行的，但是要提取高分辨率的环境变化信息，应该探索新的替代载体；同时要大力加强冰碛物绝对年代的研究。