新疆冰湖溃决灾害风险评价与预警

受全球气候变暖及人类活动的影响,冰湖溃决灾害已成为当前新疆地区经济可持续发展中的突出问题之一。利用1977(MSS)～2015年Landsat影像、2015年的Google Earth高精度影像和DEM等数据解译获取新疆冰湖的时空分布信息,并选取导致冰湖溃决的主要影响因子,运用MATLAB和SPSS等软件,利用西北地区已有冰湖数据作为训练样本拟合评价方程,建立了新疆冰湖溃决风险评价模型和基于BP神经网络算法的预警模型。结果表明:(1)1977年以来新疆三大山系中冰湖的数量和面积不断增加,冰湖数量上增加了62.0%,冰湖面积增长率为0.98 km~2·a~(-1),但增长率呈现逐年减小的趋势;(2)对分布在新疆范围内的17个典型冰湖溃决风险评价的结果显示:有5个冰湖为高危风险、5个冰湖为中等风险、7个冰湖为低等风险,新疆大约29%的冰湖需要进行实时监测。     

基于遥感与GIS的朋曲流域冰川及冰湖变化研究

由于全球变暖，冰川正逐年退缩，随之引发的冰湖溃决洪水已不容忽视，但静态和孤立地研究冰湖已不能满足人们对冰湖信息的需求．本文基于20世纪70年代的地形图数据和2000年以来的ASTER遥感影像数据，使用GIS手段矢量化朋曲流域20世纪70年代和近期的冰川及冰湖的空间分布，并进行编目．对于获得的空间数据分析结果表明，在过去30年里该区冰川面积减少近9％，冰湖面积则增加了13％，在此基础上比较二者的联系和变化，识别出了24个可能发生溃决的冰湖，这为朋曲流域建立一套冰湖溃决预警系统提供依据；同时，对于研究其他类似地区的冰湖溃决现象也具有指导意义。     

基于遥感的1990~2015年 阿尔泰山区冰湖变化特征

主要基于Landsat TM/ETM+影像等数据,分析1990~2015年间阿尔泰山地区冰湖变化及其特征.结果表明25 a间:阿尔泰山冰湖面积增加19.856 km2,平均增幅0.38%/a.阿尔泰山冰湖面积增加主要存在冰湖扩张贡献.除了3 400~3 500 m外,其他海拔带冰湖面积均出现扩张趋势,冰湖面积较稳定的区域主要分布在低海拔(< 2 100 m)和高海拔(> 3 100 m),2 100~3 100 m海拔之间冰湖面积增长快,其中增速最快的在2 200~2 900 m之间,净增值为1.7~2.8 km2,占冰湖净增长面积的78%.研究区不同朝向冰湖扩张速度不一,东北向冰湖数量增长最快,东南向冰湖面积增长最大.冰湖扩张是该区冰川退缩和气温升高两者共同作用所致.     

基于RAMMS的冰湖溃决型泥石流演进模拟及危害性

冰湖溃决型泥石流作为目前西藏境内最主要的地质灾害之一，对下游工程的建设与运营造成潜在威胁。本文以西藏洛隆县冻错曲冰湖为例，基于现场调查、遥感解译、特征值计算和数值模拟方法，对冻错曲冰湖泥石流孕灾条件、动力学特征及溃决演进过程进行研究，分析其对下游工程建设的影响。采用无量纲堵塞指数（DBI）方法对冻错曲冰湖堰塞体稳定性进行评价，结果表明该堰塞体位于非稳定区与稳定区之间，存在发生溃决的风险。基于三维动态模拟软件RAMMS的Voellmy-Salm单相流模型，模拟分析了冻错曲冰湖泥石流在2种溃决模式下的演进过程。模拟结果显示：冻错曲冰湖泥石流溃决演进过程可归纳为初始溃决、加速运动、减速运动、沟口停淤4个阶段；2种溃决模式下冰湖溃决影响范围都经过拟建工程位置，潜在威胁区泥石流平均深度分别为4.87 m、8.26 m；在瞬时全部溃决场景下，冰湖溃决泥石流在拟建工程处最大流速为5.74 m/s，最大流量为2 843.38 m3/s。研究成果有助于评价冰湖溃决型泥石流的危害性，并为工程防治设计提供参考。     

西藏冰湖溃决频次与径流峰值流量相关性分析

冰湖溃决事件频繁发生,严重阻碍西藏自治区区域社会经济发展,影响社会稳定。随着气候变暖,冰川减薄后退,冰川径流量增大,冰湖溃决风险上升。基于西藏自治区东南地区的嘎隆拉冰川径流观测资料,分析了2017—2019年消融期间5—9月冰川径流变化特征,探讨了西藏1931—2020年冰湖溃决事件发生的频次与径流峰值流量的关系。结果表明：在1931—2020年,西藏地区共发生冰湖溃决事件32次,集中在5—9月发生;在旬变化上,极大值频次呈单峰结构,在7月上旬频次最高;冰湖溃决频次与径流峰值流量显著相关,相关系数为0.673,随着径流增大,冰湖溃决发生的频次逐渐增大。在气候变暖的背景下,冰川融化引发的冰湖溃决灾害应引起重视,要加强冰川消融径流观测及冰湖水位的监测,进行冰湖溃决洪水预报。     

冰碛湖库容数学模型的计算方法

全球气候的变暖致使冰湖溃决灾害频繁发生,严重威胁高原地区人民生命财产安全,随之对于冰湖溃决的研究也愈发深入,冰湖库容量作为冰湖研究基础参数,对冰湖危险性评价、冰湖溃决洪峰流量以及模拟洪水演进具有不可代替的作用。计算冰湖库容的方法主要有实地测量和冰碛湖库容计算公式,由于冰碛湖多位于高山极高山地区,对每个冰湖进行实地测量难以实现,传统冰湖库容的计算方法是基于大量冰湖参数与冰湖库容的统计关系,建立冰碛湖库容经验公式,虽然其拟合优度相对较高,但其相关性只能衡量冰碛湖面积和冰碛湖库容在统计规律上的一致性,对于精确计算冰碛湖库容仍有难以完成。本文通过文献资料整理、结合实地考察对湖盆形态模拟分析,将典型冰碛湖湖盆分为三段,通过模拟建立数学模型,以冰湖面积为约束条件,抽象成数学中的曲面立体模型,分别计算其形态体积,由此推算出计算冰湖体积的表达式V=0.0717w²l (w-冰碛湖湖宽;l-冰碛湖整体长度),并利用该模型验证了公式的有效精确性,为我国喜马拉雅山地区冰碛湖库容计算提供理论参考。     

西藏念青唐古拉山东段冰湖的时空分布特征及其影响因素探讨

冰湖是研究气候变化的重要指标之一,了解冰湖分布和变化的特征,对认识冰湖与气候之间关系和研究冰湖溃决泥石流灾害有着重要意义。本文拟利用1976年、1988年、2001年和2013年四个期次冰川、冰湖的遥感解译结果进行分析,得出1976年至2013年念青唐古拉山东段冰川与冰湖发育分布特征,对念青唐古拉山区东段冰川消融以及气候垂直变化具有一定的指示作用,同时为冰湖溃决泥石流灾害的预测预警提供依据。     

高分遥感影像在第三次全国国土调查中的应用潜力评价——以重庆市为例

以高分辨率遥感影像为基础,依据土地利用调查各项规定及监测流程,以重庆市为研究区进行了土地利用变更调查研究工作,针对高分遥感影像在第三次全国国土调查中的应用潜力做评价分析,为重庆市合理利用土地提供真实准确的基础数据.研究表明,重庆市2016年土地利用变更调查监测共提取图斑16 916个,面积11 394.1 hm~2(170 912.0亩). 2016年图斑总个数较2015增长2008个,增加百分比为13.47%;图斑总面积较2015年增加496.9 hm~2(7 453.7亩),增加百分比为4.56%,主要增加图斑类型为第2、5、7类.最后将高分遥感影像在第三次全国国土调查中的应用进行了展望.     

银川市土地利用/覆被变化遥感分析

基于银川市2期Landsat 5卫星TM影像和1期Landsat 8卫星OLI影像得到其土地利用/覆被面积数据,使用土地利用面积变化、单一土地利用动态度、综合土地利用动态度模型和土地利用转移矩阵等方法分析银川市土地利用/覆被的变化情况.研究结果表明:2014年银川市城市建筑面积比1995年增加了700.84km~2,增长率为169.03%,占区域总面积32.25%,城市用地面积平均每年增长8.90%,城市化进程发展迅速;2014年银川市湖泊和河流面积比1995年明显减少,湖泊面积分别降低了68.35%,河流面积降低了89.68%;银川市沙地面积急剧增加,与城市化的加快和贺兰山森林被破化有关.     

1990—2020年那曲地区冰湖变化研究

基于Landsat遥感影像,采用目视解译的方法提取了青藏高原内部那曲地区冰湖和冰川1990、2000、2010及2020年4期边界数据,并分析近30年来该地区冰湖变化的特征与原因．结果表明:那曲地区现有冰湖255个,总面积（27.829±4.62） km2,冰湖主要集中在东南部,其次是西南部;1990—2020年,研究区新增冰湖72个,面积增长6.14 km2;冰湖扩张趋势明显,具体表现为低海拔地区（≤4 700 m）原有冰湖快速扩张,较高海拔地区（>5 100~5 700 m）新增冰湖集中出现;气温与降水是冰湖变化的关键因素,由于降水与气温分布及变化存在时空差异,冰湖变化呈现“南快北慢,逐期加快”的特征;冰湖与冰川的位置关系也会影响冰湖变化,离冰川位置越近,对冰湖发育越有利,同时与冰湖接触的冰川退缩速率相较于其余冰川有更大的退缩速率,但冰川与冰湖面积变化速率并无明显相关性．      

Rapid discharge connects Antarctic subglacial lakes

The existence of many subglacial lakes provides clear evidence for the widespread presence of water beneath the East Antarctic ice sheet, but the hydrology beneath this ice mass is poorly understood. Such knowledge is critical to understanding ice flow, basal water transfer to the ice margin, glacial landform development and subglacial lake habitats. Here we present ice-sheet surface elevation changes in central East Antarctica that we interpret to represent rapid discharge from a subglacial lake. Our observations indicate that during a period of 16 months, 1.8 km3 of water was transferred over 290 km to at least two other subglacial lakes. While viscous deformation of the ice roof above may moderate discharge, the intrinsic instability of such a system suggests that discharge events are a common mode of basal drainage. If large lakes, such as Lake Vostok or Lake Concordia, are pressurizing, it is possible that substantial discharges could reach the coast. Our observations conflict with expectations that subglacial lakes have long residence times and slow circulations, and we suggest that entire subglacial drainage basins may be flushed periodically. The rapid transfer of water between lakes would result in large-scale solute and microbe relocation, and drainage system contamination from in situ exploration is, therefore, a distinct risk.     

堰塞湖风险评估研究综述

从堰塞湖的灾害链演化过程出发,基于堰塞湖风险评估概念,围绕堰塞湖危险性评价、溃决过程与洪水演进模拟和溃决损失评估等3个方面,从定性和定量的角度综述了堰塞体稳定性评价方法,对溃坝参数模型、简化数学模型、精细化数学模型以及洪水演进模型进行了对比分析,从生命损失和经济损失两个角度总结了损失计算方法,最后针对堰塞湖风险评估未来在危险性评价中的不确定性问题、溃决洪水模拟的准确性问题、溃决损失评估的定量化方法、风险定量评估体系和风险动态评估体系五个方面进行展望。     

Glacial distribution and mass balance in the Yarlung Zangbo River and its influence on lakes

Glaciers in the Yarlung Zangbo River witness severe glacial retreat nowadays, which gives important influence on lake processes in the region. We have studied glacial distribution, glacial mass balance and found large deficit in glacial mass and its impact in the region. Our study also integrated the variation in glacial-fed lakes of the Nam Co and Ranwu Lake, and presented an initial assessment of the impact of glacial mass balance on lakes. The study has shown a significant contribution of glacial melting to recent lake expansion and lake level rising.     

Enhanced ice sheet growth in Eurasia owing to adjacent ice-dammed lakes

Large proglacial lakes cool regional summer climate because of their large heat capacity, and have been shown to modify precipitation through mesoscale atmospheric feedbacks, as in the case of Lake Agassiz. Several large ice-dammed lakes, with a combined area twice that of the Caspian Sea, were formed in northern Eurasia about 90,000 years ago, during the last glacial period when an ice sheet centred over the Barents and Kara seas blocked the large northbound Russian rivers. Here we present high-resolution simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model that explicitly simulates the surface mass balance of the ice sheet. We show that the main influence of the Eurasian proglacial lakes was a significant reduction of ice sheet melting at the southern margin of the Barents-Kara ice sheet through strong regional summer cooling over large parts of Russia. In our simulations, the summer melt reduction clearly outweighs lake-induced decreases in moisture and hence snowfall, such as has been reported earlier for Lake Agassiz. We conclude that the summer cooling mechanism from proglacial lakes accelerated ice sheet growth and delayed ice sheet decay in Eurasia and probably also in North America.     

High-altitude salt lake elevation changes and glacial ablation in Central Tibet, 2000-2010

This research quantifies lake level variations in the Siling Co, Co’e and Bangor Co salt lakes in Central Tibet from 1976 to 2010, and most notably for the 2000-2010 periods. In particular, the effects of different water replenishment modes on the lakes have been analyzed. Here we have provided new evidences for climate warming and accelerated glacial ablation on the Central Tibetan Plateau from 2000 to 2010. Based on fieldwork involving Differential Global Positioning System (DGPS) surveying and Remote Sensing (RS) interpretations of the lake area, we have drawn the following conclusions. (1) From 1976 to 2010, the process of lake level variation in Siling Co can be divided into two stages. From 1976 to 2000, the lake level rose 4.3 m in a steady fashion (from 4530 to 4534.3 m); the rise rate was 0.18 m/a. From 2000 to 2010, the lake level rapidly rose 8.2 m (from 4534.3 to 4542.5 m), with a dramatically higher rise rate of 0.82 m/a. Compared with the rapidly increasing lake level of Siling Co from 2000 to 2010, the fluctuations observed at Co’e and Bangor Co were smooth and inconspicuous. (2) From 1976 to 2009, the lake area of Siling Co experienced a steady-rapid-steady expansion pattern. The lake area of Siling Co increased 656.64 km2 in the 34 years to 2010, a proportional growth of 39.4%. This was particularly significant in the 2000-2010 period, when the lake area of Siling Co increased by 549.77 km2, a proportional growth of 30.6%. (3) According to correlation analysis, the rise in regional temperatures, which has led to the ablation of glaciers, is the main reason for the rapid rise in Siling Co lake levels in the 10 years to 2010. During this period, Siling Co rose approximately 8 m as the direct result of glacial melting. An increase in precipitation in the Siling Co catchment area is the secondary factor. This contrasts with Bangor Co, where the dominant factor in lake level change is the long-term increase in precipitation; here, the increasing temperature is the secondary factor.     

Large subglacial lakes in East Antarctica at the onset of fast-flowing ice streams

Water plays a crucial role in ice-sheet stability and the onset of ice streams. Subglacial lake water moves between lakes and rapidly drains, causing catastrophic floods. The exact mechanisms by which subglacial lakes influence ice-sheet dynamics are unknown, however, and large subglacial lakes have not been closely associated with rapidly flowing ice streams. Here we use satellite imagery and ice-surface elevations to identify a region of subglacial lakes, similar in total area to Lake Vostok, at the onset region of the Recovery Glacier ice stream in East Antarctica and predicted by ice-sheet models. We define four lakes through extensive, flat, featureless regions of ice surface bounded by upstream troughs and downstream ridges. Using ice velocities determined using interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR), we find the onset of rapid flow (moving at 20 to 30 m yr(-1)) of the tributaries to the Recovery Glacier ice stream in a 280-km-wide segment at the downslope margins of these four subglacial lakes. We conclude that the subglacial lakes initiate and maintain rapid ice flow through either active modification of the basal thermal regime of the ice sheet by lake accretion or through scouring bedrock channels in periodic drainage events. We suggest that the role of subglacial lakes needs to be considered in ice-sheet mass balance assessments.