Valiantzas模型在广西参考作物蒸散发预测的适用性研究

参考作物蒸散发(Reference Evapotranspiration,ET₀)的精确计算是灌溉制度设计、水资源分配及管理的基础。本研究基于广西喀斯特与非喀斯特地区10个典型气象站点5年半的逐日气温、风速、相对湿度和日照时数数据,系统评估了Valiantzas系列简化模型(对应于不同气象因子缺失情况)在广西的适用性,并以Kling-Gupta Efficiency系数(KGE)、Nash效率系数(NSE)、决定系数(R²)、均方根误差(RMSE)以及平均偏差(PBIAS)作为评价指标。结果表明：Valiantzas-M1模型与FAO-56 Penman-Monteith (FAO-56 P-M)模型所需气象因子相同,但精度较高,其NSE和RMSE分别为0.796-0.841和0.557-0.641 mm/d,便于实际应用,可替代FAO-56 P-M模型。缺失风速时,原始Valiantzas-M2模型误差较大,用广西地区平均风速对其进行修正的Valiantzas-M2-modify模型能够提高ET₀模拟精度,降低误差,NSE增加了16.6%-17.4%,RMSE降低了24.9%-27.4%。同时缺失太阳辐射和风速时,Valiantzas-M3模型在喀斯特和非喀斯特地区的RMSE值分别为0.991 mm/d和0.988 mm/d。同时缺失相对湿度和风速时,Makkink模型模拟ET₀效果优于Valiantzas-M5模型。本研究可为气象站点稀疏、岩溶干旱严重的广西农业水资源高效利用提供科学依据。     

*辽宁半干旱及半湿润地区ET0时空演变规律研究

为了研究气候变化条件下辽宁省ET₀的变化特征,本文以辽宁省56个站点1954-2016年的气象数据为基础,采用FAO推荐的Penman-Monteith公式对该地区的ET₀进行推算,并利用干旱指数综合分带法,将辽宁省分为半干旱地区和半湿润地区,并在半干旱和半湿润地区分别选择4个气象站,对其ET₀的时空变化特征进行分析。结果表明：全省多年平均ET₀大致呈下降趋势,但该趋势不明显,倾向率仅为－0.0001mm.10a;全省1954-2016年日均ET₀的多年平均值为2.382mm,日均ET₀在(2.380±0.300)mm的范围内波动。8个站点中喀左站、朝阳站、康平站、桓仁站、沈阳站和鞍山站ET₀呈极显著下降趋势,阜新站和大连站呈显著上升趋势。对ET₀的年际变化影响较显著的气象因素是相对湿度、日照时数。     

附加IRI模型约束的全球电离层建模及定位精度分析

采用载波相位平滑伪距的全球电离层建模方法,确定了添加国际参考电离层（IRI）模型约束和不同数据选取策略的有效性和必要性。实验分析表明,采用P₁、P₂原始双频观测数据并添加IRI模型约束后,部分历元电离层建模的整体效果得到了显著提高,在观测数据不足的区域内定位误差在北、东、高方向上分别减小了0.260 m、0.146 m和0.103 m,验证了该方法的有效性;将C₁观测值作为低精度数据取代缺失P₁观测值后,电离层建模的整体效果进一步提升,但损失了模型精度,在观测数据不足的区域内定位误差在北、东、高方向上分别增加0.524 m、0.111 m和1.549 m,说明了利用P₁、P₂双频观测数据的必要性。     

磁性纳米颗粒系统的铁磁共振和共振线宽分析

 对非相互作用磁性纳米颗粒系统的FMR线型模型进行了研究,以铁磁体从应用场中获得自由能F为例,导出磁性颗粒在较小各向异性时,共振场H_r与有效各向异性场H_A^eff的关系,这个结果与Raikher和Stepanou的结果一致.继而还对共振场线宽进行了分析,并与Smit和Beljers模型进行了比较,其结论说明:在超顺磁区域有效各向异性场H_A^eff对塞曼(Zeeman)相互作用和附加应用场H是不确定的.尤其是这种情况在H_A^eff较小、高温(高温区域),且H_A^eff≈H时,变得更显著.为此提出了随机颗粒阵列及参数特征对这个结果的影响机制.     

光子静质量和光子结构

 粒子物理标准模型(SM)认定,光子静质量m_γ=0,已获普遍公认.弱、电统一用SU_L(2) U_e(1)对称群表示,若m_γ≠0,必将破坏U_e(1)对称.最近的一些理论研究和实验已显示m_γ≠0的迹象.若然,它又一次动摇了标准模型的基础.     

具有家庭干预的HIV/AIDS模型动力性研究

考虑一类具有移民、筛选和家庭干预的HIV/AIDS传染病模型的全局动力性.确定了模型的阈值R₀.当R₀ < 1,无病平衡点是全局渐近稳定的,疾病死亡;当R₀>1,唯一的地方病平衡点是全局渐近稳定的,疾病持续下去.同时也研究了模型平衡点的稳定性和敏感度行为.最后运用数字模拟来支持所得结果.     

I-gel喉罩下七氟烷吸入全麻在新生儿短小手术中的应用

目的 评价I-gel喉罩下七氟烷吸入全麻在新生儿短小手术中的应用效果。方法 选择行短小手术的新生儿40例,随机均分为I-gel喉罩组（A组）和气管插管组（B组）,每组20例。七氟烷吸入诱导完成后,A组患儿置入I-gel喉罩,B组患儿插入气管导管,成功后行控制呼吸,七氟烷维持麻醉。结果 两组患儿插管（或喉罩）的成功率无显著差异;但A组患儿喉罩置入所需时间显著短于B组患儿的插管所需时间（P<0.05）。T₁时A组患儿MAP、HR较B组明显降低（P<0.05）;T₁~T₃时,两组患儿气道峰压、气道密封压、SPO₂、P_ETCO₂均在正常范围内,且两组患儿SpO₂、P_ETCO₂差异无统计学意义。A组患儿拔除喉罩后哭声嘶哑、呛咳、有血性分泌物发生率明显小于B组（P<0.05）,两组患儿均未发生反流误吸。结论 I-gel喉罩下七氟烷吸入全麻用于新生儿短小手术,方便快捷,通气效果好,置入成功率高,不良反应少。     

含氮杂环类润滑油添加剂抗磨损性能的神经网络研究

为研究含氮杂环衍生物对三羟甲基丙烷油酸酯改性后的抗磨损性能,计算30个含氮杂环衍生物的分子结构指数. 优化筛选其中分子连接性指数⁴X和⁵X、分子形状指数K₃、电性拓扑状态指数E₇、电性距离矢量M₆和M₁₈. 对以上6种结构指数与磨损量度进行回归分析,将分子结构指数作为神经网络的输入变量,磨损量度作为输出变量,采用6∶2∶1的网络结构,建构预测磨损量度能力较强的神经网络预测模型,模型的总相关系数r_t为0.9921. 计算得到磨损量度的预测值与实验值吻合度较好,相对平均误差为0.38%. 从构建的模型可以看出,—CH₃、=CH—、—NH—等基团的数量及连接方式是影响润滑油磨损量度大小的主要因素.     

媒体报道下随机SIQS流行病模型的动态行为研究

研究了媒体报道干预策略下的随机SIQS流行病模型.构造合适的Lyapunov函数,使用Itô公式和马尔可夫半群理论,证明了基本再生数R₀^s可用于控制随机流行病模型的动态行为,即如果再生数R₀^s<1,并且在其他条件下,疾病将消亡;如果再生数R₀^s>1,并且在其他条件下,疾病是持久性的.结论表明：大的白噪声可以抑制疾病的爆发,这为制定有用的控制策略来调节疾病的动态行为提供有效帮助.最后通过数值模拟验证了这一结果.     

带约束的增长曲线模型中的可容许线性估计

 对于带约束的增长曲线模型Y=X₁ΘX₂+ε,ε~(0,σ²V I_q),tr(X′₂Θ′X′1NX₁ΘX₂)≤σ²,讨论了可估函数KΘL的可容许性在矩阵损失函数(d-KΘL)(d-KΘL)′下得到了DYF+C线性可容许的充要条件.     

Spatial variability of irrigation factors and their relationships with “corridor-barrier” functions in the Longitudinal Range-Gorge Region

Based on the monthly meteorological data at 58 meteorological stations from 1971 to 2000 in the Longitudinal Range-Gorge Region (LRGR) and the surrounding areas, six factors including yearly ET ₀, maximum monthly ET ₀ (May), minimum monthly ET ₀ (December), paddy irrigation quota and total agricultural irrigation quota (yearly and main irrigation period from April to June) were selected to examine their spatial variability using a geostatistical approach. The results indicated that the coefficients of Moran’s I, describing the intensity of spatial autocorrelation, were greater in longitudinal direction than in other directions; the spatial variabilities of the six parameters were mainly caused by structural factor accounting for 60.2%–87.9%; the largest variabilities of ET ₀ (yearly, in May and December) appeared in the northwest-southeast and northeast-southwest directions. Due to the summer monsoon atmospheric circumfluence from the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean, and continental warm-dry current in winter, the minimum fractal dimension and the maximum spatial variability of ET ₀ (yearly, in May and December) occurred in southwest-northeast and southeast-northwest directions. The highest variabilities of paddy and total agricultural irrigation requirements occurred in the south-north direction due to the vapor and energy diffusion caused by corridor function of the longitudinal rivers. The minimum spatial autocorrelation was in east-west direction, which proves that the six parameters of agricultural irrigation requirement were influenced by the “corridor-barrier” function in the LRGR and its surrounding areas.

     

Determining factors in potential evapotranspiration changes over China in the period 1971–2008

Potential evapotranspiration (ET_o) is important to hydrological cycling and the global energy balance. Based on a modified FAO56-Penman-Monteith model, ET_o was simulated for 603 meteorological stations across China in the period 1971–2008. Spatial distribution and temporal change of ET_o were characterized, and the determining factors in ET_o were revealed by sensitivity analysis. Results show obvious regional differences in annual average ET_o and its determining factor. In general, annual average ET_o decreased in the period 1971–2008, but increased since the 1990s. Wind speed and sunshine duration were determining factors in the annual ET_o trend, with smaller contributions from relative humidity and temperature. Declining wind speed was the determining factor in decreasing annual ET_o in northern temperate regions and the Tibetan Plateau. The spatial extent of wind speed influence contracted to northwest China in summer, and expanded to the whole country in autumn. Decreasing sunshine duration was the determining factor in decreasing annual ET_o in subtropical and tropical regions, especially in summer, with a larger spatial influence mainly to the southeast of the farming-pastoral region. ET_o change has distinct impacts on earth surface ecosystems and environment depending on different determining factors.     

不同e_a计算方法对Penman-Monteith公式的影响

实际水汽压ea是Penman-Monteith公式中计算参考作物蒸发蒸腾量的重要过程参数.为了研究在湿度缺测条件下,露点温度法替代相对湿度法计算ea在我国长江三角洲地区的适用性,选用江苏南通2000~2004年的旬气象资料,采用FAO推荐的相对湿度法和露点温度法两种方法计算了实际水汽压ea和旬参考作物蒸发蒸腾量ET0,分析了这两种方法计算结果的误差及其与影响因素间的关系.结果表明:这两种方法计算结果间误差较小,有98%以上的计算结果其误差小于20%;实际水汽压间的误差差异与最高最低温差相关关系最强,旬参考作物蒸发蒸腾量间的误差差异与最低温度的相关性最强;在湿度缺测条件下,可以采用露点温度法替代相对湿度法计算ea并进一步计算ET0.     

Estimation of emissions from field burning of crop straw in China

Emissions resulting from crop straw field burning in China, which have caused serious environmental problems in China, are estimated in this paper. From the county-level data of crop production in 2000-2003 from the government statistics, taking into account the ratio of residue and grain, the total amount of crop straw production is estimated to be about 600 Tg per year, 76% of which are rice, wheat and corn straw. With reference to the data of living standards, the percentage of crop straw burnt in fields for counties are obtained and consequently the total amount of burnt straws is approximately 140 Tg/year. With the emission factors from literature and experiments, appropriate emission factors have been obtained. The total amounts of PM, SO2, NOx3, NH3, CH4, BC, OC, VOC, CO, CO2 emissions from field burning of crop straw in China are estimated. All emissions are presented at county level. Some pollutants, such as BC, VOC, OC, CO and CO2, are contributing a major portion to the total emissions of China. This paper uses a map with resolution of 0.2°×0.2°to present the PM emissions distribution from crop straw burnt in 2003. The results show a significant regional unevenness of emissions, with larger amounts of pollutions coming from the provinces in eastern and northeast China. The regions with higher emissions per unit area are located as a belt stretching from northeast China to eastern China.     

中国主要粮食作物种植结构调整区域优先序研究

基于作物生产水足迹,引入水资源稀缺性指数,结合作物面积净收益,构建种植结构调整区域优先序评价模型,评价中国水稻、玉米、小麦的主要生产地. 结果表明:水稻种植结构应优先调整的地区依次为湖南、江西、黑龙江、广东、广西;玉米种植结构应优先调整的地区依次为黑龙江、吉林、河南、内蒙古、山东;小麦种植结构应优先调整的地区依次为河南、山东、安徽、河北、江苏．本研究实现了种植结构调整的理论与实践衔接,有助于推动我国作物种植结构调整进程,提高农业水资源利用效率．      

不同eα计算方法对Penman-Monteith公式的影响

实际水汽压eα是Penman—Monteith公式中计算参考作物蒸发蒸腾量的重要过程参数．为了研究在湿度缺测条件下，露点温度法替代相对湿度法计算eα在我国长江三角洲地区的适用性，选用江苏南通2000-2004年的旬气象资料，采用FAO推荐的相对湿度法和露点温度法两种方法计算了实际水汽压ea和旬参考作物蒸发蒸腾量E710，分析了这两种方法计算结果的误差及其与影响因素间的关系．结果表明：这两种方法计算结果间误差较小，有98％以上的计算结果其误差小于20％；实际水汽压间的误差差异与最高最低温差相关关系最强，旬参考作物蒸发蒸腾量间的误差差异与最低温度的相关性最强；在湿度缺测条件下，可以采用露点温度法替代相对湿度法计算eα并进一步计算ET0．     

东北三省主要粮食作物虚拟水变化分析

计算了1988?2008 年东北地区 4 种主要粮食作物(水稻、小麦、玉米和大豆)的初级产品单位虚拟水含量和省虚拟水总量, 明晰了这 4 种粮食作物的农业用水量格局及时间变化。研究结果表明:大豆单位耗水量最高,小麦次之,玉米最小;空间上水稻的单位耗水量在黑龙江省最高,小麦在吉林省最高, 玉米和大豆在辽宁省最高;黑龙江省的水稻、小麦和大豆的虚拟水总量都明显高于吉林省和辽宁省,分别达到8.60×10⁹,3.98×10⁹和 1.22×10¹⁰m³, 而吉林省玉米虚拟水总量在 3 个省中最高,达1.08×10¹⁰m³。随时间的变化,东北地区大豆和小麦的单位虚拟水含量表现为下降或者波动,而水稻和玉米相对稳定;玉米和水稻的虚拟水总量呈上升趋势而小麦明显呈下降趋势。该研究提供了从虚拟资源视角认识水资源消耗的实证, 可以对东北地区粮食作物布局提供科学依据。     

Validating a dust production model by field experiment in Mu Us Desert, China

It is essential for validation and improvement of a dust production model to perform field observations on dust emissions. The dust production model (DPM model) consists of two physically explicit sub-models, namely saltation model [1, 2] (eq. (1)) and sandblasting model [3] (eqs. (2) and (3)). Fh is saltation flux, E is fraction of erodible surface, C is a dimensional constant, ρa is air density, g is gravitational acceleration, U* is the wind friction velocity, Ut*(Dp) is threshold frict…