企业生命周期下投资者关注对权益资本成本的影响

基于行为金融学的价格压力假说，结合企业生命周期理论，以2007—2014年的主板上市公司为样本，分析投资者关注对权益资本成本的影响以及这种影响在企业生命周期中存在的阶段性差异。研究发现，投资者关注与权益资本成本显著负相关，即权益资本成本随着投资者关注的提高而降低。对于不同生命周期的企业，投资者关注对权益资本成本的影响存在差异。新生期、衰退期企业的权益资本成本并不会随着投资者关注程度的提高而降低；成长期、成熟期企业的权益资本成本随着投资者关注程度的提高而降低。可以看出，投资者能够识别企业所处的生命周期，并愿意为成长期、成熟期的企业支付更高的溢价。     

Forecasting the duration of short‐term deflation episodes

The paper proposes a simulation‐based approach to multistep probabilistic forecasting, applied for predicting the probability and duration of negative inflation. The essence of this approach is in counting runs simulated from a multivariate distribution representing the probabilistic forecasts, which enters the negative inflation regime. The marginal distributions of forecasts are estimated using the series of past forecast errors, and the joint distribution is obtained by a multivariate copula approach. This technique is applied for estimating the probability of negative inflation in China and its expected duration, with the marginal distributions computed by fitting weighted skew‐normal and two‐piece normal distributions to autoregressive moving average ex post forecast errors and using the multivariate Student t copula.     

Blockage of the NLRP3 inflammasome by MCC950 improves anti-tumor immune responses in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma

The NLRP3 inflammasome is a critical innate immune pathway responsible for producing active interleukin (IL)-1β, which is associated with tumor development and immunity. However, the mechanisms regulating the inflammatory microenvironment, tumorigenesis and tumor immunity are unclear. Herein, we show that the NLRP3 inflammasome was over-expressed in human HNSCC tissues and that the IL-1β concentration was increased in the peripheral blood of HNSCC patients. Additionally, elevated NLRP3 inflammasome levels were detected in tumor tissues of Tgfbr1/Pten 2cKO HNSCC mice, and elevated IL-1β levels were detected in the peripheral blood serum, spleen, draining lymph nodes and tumor tissues. Blocking NLRP3 inflammasome activation using MCC950 remarkably reduced IL-1β production in an HNSCC mouse model and reduced the numbers of myeloid-derived suppressor cells (MDSCs), regulatory T cells (Tregs) and tumor-associated macrophages (TAMs). Moreover, inhibiting NLRP3 inflammasome activation increased the numbers of CD4⁺ and CD8⁺ T cells in HNSCC mice. Notably, the numbers of exhausted PD-1⁺ and Tim3⁺ T cells were significantly reduced. A human HNSCC tissue microarray showed that NLRP3 inflammasome expression was correlated with the expression of CD8 and CD4, the Treg marker Foxp3, the MDSC markers CD11b and CD33, and the TAM markers CD68 and CD163, PD-1 and Tim3. Overall, our results demonstrate that the NLRP3 inflammasome/IL-1β pathway promotes tumorigenesis in HNSCC and inactivation of this pathway delays tumor growth, accompanied by decreased immunosuppressive cell accumulation and an increased number of effector T cells. Thus, inhibition of the tumor microenvironment through the NLRP3 inflammasome/IL-1β pathway may provide a novel approach for HNSCC therapy.     

基于滑移/非滑移异质界面的动压润滑性能优化

合理布置的滑移/非滑移异质界面可以提高流体动压润滑性能,但目前滑移区和非滑移区的组合方式大多采用单一的直线拼接法,没有针对流体润滑摩擦副的各类工况设计出相应的优化方案,为此本文建立了一组离散式二次方程来描述滑移区和非滑移区拼接轨迹,并引入计算域单元的宽长比作为优化变量,分别以液膜刚度和摩擦因数作为优化目标,通过MATLAB数值仿真求解不同宽长比条件下滑移区和非滑移区的最优拼接轨迹。结果表明,与直线拼接法相比,选取二次方程所描述的抛物线作为滑移区和非滑移区拼接轨迹的方法使流体润滑摩擦副在摩擦因数和液膜刚度等性能指标上都有所改善,而且根据不同的优化目标参数可以方便地绘制出最优拼接方案,验证了本文方法在改善动压润滑性能上的可行性和普适性。     

Attack and Defense Strategies in Complex Networks Based on Game Theory

To investigate the attack and defense strategies in complex networks, the authors propose a two-player zero-sum static game model with complete information which considers attack and defense strategies simultaneously. The authors assume that both the attacker and defender have two typical strategies: Targeted strategy and random strategy. The authors explore the Nash equilibriums of the attacker-defender game and demonstrate that when the attacker's attack resources are not so significantly abundant as the defender's resources, there exists a pure-strategy Nash equilibrium in both model networks and real-world networks, in which the defender protects the hub targets with large degrees preferentially, while the attacker prefers selecting the targets randomly. When the attack resources are much higher than defense resources, both the attacker and the defender adopt the targeted strategy in equilibriums. This paper provides a new theoretical framework for the study of attack and defense strategies in complex networks.     

基于改进边际优化的离散变量优化设计算法

针对传统离散变量优化方法存在的目标函数测算次数多、收敛性不佳等问题,借鉴边际优化理论和模式搜索算法,设计了一种基于改进边际优化的离散变量优化设计算法。借鉴边际效用优化原理,通过引入周围单位步长空间的概念,在初始点选择、边际增量设计、禁忌搜索策略等方面进行了改进,并设计了变异操作以跳出局部最优。实例分析表明,所提算法能够快速准确地收敛到局部最优解,实现以尽可能少的目标函数测算得到问题的满意解或最优解,适合于求解高维离散变量优化问题和仿真优化问题。     

单频电磁辐射对雷达的干扰规律

为了提高雷达电磁防护能力,揭示单频电磁辐射对雷达的干扰规律,首先基于雷达测距原理,通过电路非线性失真分析,初步掌握阻塞干扰和假目标干扰规律;而后开展效应试验,对干扰规律进行补充和完善。结果表明带内单频电磁辐射易对受试雷达造成干扰,假目标临界干扰场强明显低于阻塞干扰,最敏感处的差值可达30 dB,但敏感带宽要比阻塞干扰窄50%。随着干扰场强提高,回波峰值电平压缩量先缓慢增加而后近似线性增长,阻塞干扰虽然不会影响探测距离的准确度,但会导致探测距离缩短;假目标出现的位置是随机的,随着干扰场强提高,假目标电平先线性增长,而后趋于恒定。     

西湖凹陷西部斜坡带花港组、平湖组储层裂缝发育特征及有效裂缝测井识别

以西湖凹陷西斜坡花港组、平湖组致密砂岩储层为研究对象,通过录井资料分析及岩心和显微薄片观察,研究裂缝的宏观与微观发育特征及其影响因素.结果显示其主要发育层理缝和构造缝.层理缝主要为水平缝和低角度缝,且已被充填;构造缝主要为垂直缝和高角度缝,充填缝和未充填缝各占一半.裂缝的发育受岩性、单层厚度、断裂及地应力场的综合影响.在交会图法(定性)和概率判别法(半定量)研究的基础上,将岩心观察统计结果与常规测井曲线和成像测井成果相对比,综合预测与评价裂缝发育段,认为有利的裂缝发育层段为花港组下段和平湖组中下段.     

Superior corrosion resistance-dependent laser energy density in(CoCrFeNi)95Nb5 high entropy alloy coating fabricated by laser cladding

(CoCrFeNi)95Nb5 high entropy alloy(HEA)coatings were successfully fabricated on a substrate of Q235 steel by laser cladding technology.These(CoCrFeNi)95Nb5 HEA coatings possess excellent properties,particularly corrosion resistance,which is clearly superior to that of some typical bulk HEA and common engineering alloys.In order to obtain appropriate laser cladding preparation process parameters,the effects of laser energy density on the microstructure,microhardness,and corrosion resistance of(CoCrFeNi)95Nb5 HEA coating were closely studied.Results showed that as the laser energy density increases,precipitation of the Laves phase in(CoCrFeNi)95Nb5 HEA coating gradually decreases,and diffusion of the Fe element in the substrate intensifies,affecting the integrity of the(CoCrFeNi)95Nb5 HEA.This decreases the microhardness of(CoCrFeNi)95Nb5 HEA coatings.Moreover,the relative content of Cr2O3,Cr(OH)3,and Nb2O5 in the surface passive film of the coating decreases with increasing energy density,causing corrosion resistance to decrease.This study demonstrates the controllability of a high-performance HEA coating using laser cladding technology,which has significance for the laser cladding preparation of other CoCrFeNi-system HEA coatings.     

东濮凹陷胡庆地区原油地球化学特征与油源分析

研究东濮凹陷胡庆地区原油地球化学特征及其来源.利用有机地球化学分析方法,对原油与烃源岩进行饱和烃色谱、饱和烃与芳烃色谱-质谱分析,剖析了两者的分子地球化学特征及油源.研究表明:胡庆地区发育3类原油,第一类原油具有极高伽马蜡烷,质量色谱图中甾烷呈"L"形特征,来自第二台阶的沙一段烃源岩,在沙一段储层中富集形成自生自储常温常压油藏;第二类原油为具有较高伽马蜡烷、三环萜烷以C23为主峰、甾烷呈不对称"V"形特征的中质油,来自第二台阶的沙三下亚段烃源岩,近源聚集形成常温常压油藏;第三类原油为具有较低伽马蜡烷、三环萜烷以C21为主峰、甾烷呈不对称"V"形特征的轻质油,是第一台阶的海通集洼陷沙三中亚段烃源岩生成,在第一台阶优质砂体中聚集形成的高温高压油藏.3类油藏由浅至深形成了3个独立的油气成藏系统,海通集洼陷并没有向第二台阶供烃.