Forecasting the duration of short‐term deflation episodes

The paper proposes a simulation‐based approach to multistep probabilistic forecasting, applied for predicting the probability and duration of negative inflation. The essence of this approach is in counting runs simulated from a multivariate distribution representing the probabilistic forecasts, which enters the negative inflation regime. The marginal distributions of forecasts are estimated using the series of past forecast errors, and the joint distribution is obtained by a multivariate copula approach. This technique is applied for estimating the probability of negative inflation in China and its expected duration, with the marginal distributions computed by fitting weighted skew‐normal and two‐piece normal distributions to autoregressive moving average ex post forecast errors and using the multivariate Student t copula.     

Evidence from the Mars Express High Resolution Stereo Camera for a frozen sea close to Mars' equator

It is thought that the Cerberus Fossae fissures on Mars were the source of both lava and water floods two to ten million years ago. Evidence for the resulting lava plains has been identified in eastern Elysium, but seas and lakes from these fissures and previous water flooding events were presumed to have evaporated and sublimed away. Here we present High Resolution Stereo Camera images from the European Space Agency Mars Express spacecraft that indicate that such lakes may still exist. We infer that the evidence is consistent with a frozen body of water, with surface pack-ice, around 5 degrees north latitude and 150 degrees east longitude in southern Elysium. The frozen lake measures about 800 x 900 km in lateral extent and may be up to 45 metres deep--similar in size and depth to the North Sea. From crater counts, we determined its age to be 5 +/- 2 million years old. If our interpretation is confirmed, this is a place that might preserve evidence of primitive life, if it has ever developed on Mars.     

New species of Notophthiracarus (Acari: Oribatida: Phthiracaroidea) from Tanzania

Three new species of the genus Notophthiracarus are described, identified and figured from Uluguru Mountains of Tanzania: Notophthiracarus quasiuluguruensis sp. nov, Notophthiracarus tuberculus sp. nov, and Notophthiracarus uluguruensis sp. nov. A comparison with the most closely related species of the genus Notophthiracarus is also presented.

http://zoobank.org/urn:lsid:zoobank.org:pub:3FBF24E7-3E2D-4686-AD57-EFEA25510BBD     

Augmented reality system for aiding engineering design process of machinery systems

The paper presents the application of augmented reality for aiding product design and development of machinery systems.Augmented reality technology integrates an interactive computer-generated word with an interactive real word in such a way that they appear as one environment.AR technology can enhance a user's perception of the real world with information that is not actually part of the scene but is relevant to the user's present activity.Presented in the AR system is a mode for changing views of data-...     

Guesstimation

Macroeconomic model builders attempting to construct forecasting models frequently face constraints of data scarcity in terms of short time series of data, and also of parameter non‐constancy and underspecification. Hence, a realistic alternative is often to guess rather than to estimate parameters of such models. This paper concentrates on repetitive guessing (drawing) parameters from iteratively changing distributions, with the straightforward objective function being that of minimization of squares of ex‐post prediction errors, weighted by penalty weights and subject to a learning process. The examples are those of a Monte Carlo analysis of a regression problem and of a dynamic disequilibrium model. It is also an example of an empirical econometric model of the Polish economy. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

New species of the superfamily Euphthiracaroidea (Acari: Oribatida) from Madagascar and Tanzania

Five new species of the family Euphthiracaridae are described, identified and figured from the Afrotropical region: Oribotritia breviseta sp. nov. from Andasibe National Park of Madagascar; Acrotritia paraardua sp. nov. from Vohimana Experimental Reserve, Ambohitanely Special Reserve and Andasibe National Park of Madagascar; Acrotritia paradikra sp. nov. from Ranomafana National Park and Ankarafantsika National Park of Masagascar; Microtritia diaphoros sp. nov. from the Nguru Mountains of Tanzania; and Microtritia parahauseri sp. nov from the Uluguru Mountains of Tanzania. A comparison with the most closely related species of the genera Oribotritia, Acrotritia and Microtritia is also presented.

http://zoobank.org/urn:lsid:zoobank.org:pub:7965FE4C-0AF8-49C4-B894-75D4EFD049BB     

A function for cyclin D1 in DNA repair uncovered by protein interactome analyses in human cancers

Cyclin D1 is a component of the core cell cycle machinery. Abnormally high levels of cyclin D1 are detected in many human cancer types. To elucidate the molecular functions of cyclin D1 in human cancers, we performed a proteomic screen for cyclin D1 protein partners in several types of human tumours. Analyses of cyclin D1 interactors revealed a network of DNA repair proteins, including RAD51, a recombinase that drives the homologous recombination process. We found that cyclin D1 directly binds RAD51, and that cyclin D1-RAD51 interaction is induced by radiation. Like RAD51, cyclin D1 is recruited to DNA damage sites in a BRCA2-dependent fashion. Reduction of cyclin D1 levels in human cancer cells impaired recruitment of RAD51 to damaged DNA, impeded the homologous recombination-mediated DNA repair, and increased sensitivity of cells to radiation in vitro and in vivo. This effect was seen in cancer cells lacking the retinoblastoma protein, which do not require D-cyclins for proliferation. These findings reveal an unexpected function of a core cell cycle protein in DNA repair and suggest that targeting cyclin D1 may be beneficial also in retinoblastoma-negative cancers which are currently thought to be unaffected by cyclin D1 inhibition.     

α2δ expression sets presynaptic calcium channel abundance and release probability

Synaptic neurotransmitter release is driven by Ca(2+) influx through active zone voltage-gated calcium channels (VGCCs). Control of active zone VGCC abundance and function remains poorly understood. Here we show that a trafficking step probably sets synaptic VGCC levels in rats, because overexpression of the pore-forming α1(A) VGCC subunit fails to change synaptic VGCC abundance or function. α2δs are a family of glycosylphosphatidylinositol (GPI)-anchored VGCC-associated subunits that, in addition to being the target of the potent neuropathic analgesics gabapentin and pregabalin (α2δ-1 and α2δ-2), were also identified in a forward genetic screen for pain genes (α2δ-3). We show that these proteins confer powerful modulation of presynaptic function through two distinct molecular mechanisms. First, α2δ subunits set synaptic VGCC abundance, as predicted from their chaperone-like function when expressed in non-neuronal cells. Second, α2δs configure synaptic VGCCs to drive exocytosis through an extracellular metal ion-dependent adhesion site (MIDAS), a conserved set of amino acids within the predicted von Willebrand A domain of α2δ. Expression of α2δ with an intact MIDAS motif leads to an 80% increase in release probability, while simultaneously protecting exocytosis from blockade by an intracellular Ca(2+) chelator. α2δs harbouring MIDAS site mutations still drive synaptic accumulation of VGCCs; however, they no longer change release probability or sensitivity to intracellular Ca(2+) chelators. Our data reveal dual functionality of these clinically important VGCC subunits, allowing synapses to make more efficient use of Ca(2+) entry to drive neurotransmitter release.     

Rough sets: the classical and extended views

The article is a comprehensive review of two major approaches to rough set theory:the classic rough set model introduced by Pawlak and the probabilistic approaches.The classic model is presented as a staging ground to the discussion of two varieties of the probabilistic approach, i.e. of the variable precision and Bayesian rough set models. Both of these models extend the classic model to deal with stochastic interactions while preserving the basic ideas of the original rough set theory, such as set approximations, data dependencies, reducts etc. The probabilistic models are able to handle weaker data interactions than the classic model, thus extending the applicability of the rough set paradigm. The extended models are presented in considerable detail with some illustrative examples.