An ensemble of LSTM neural networks for high‐frequency stock market classification

We propose an ensemble of long–short‐term memory (LSTM) neural networks for intraday stock predictions, using a large variety of technical analysis indicators as network inputs. The proposed ensemble operates in an online way, weighting the individual models proportionally to their recent performance, which allows us to deal with possible nonstationarities in an innovative way. The performance of the models is measured by area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic. We evaluate the predictive power of our model on several US large‐cap stocks and benchmark it against lasso and ridge logistic classifiers. The proposed model is found to perform better than the benchmark models or equally weighted ensembles.     

Forecasting the duration of short‐term deflation episodes

The paper proposes a simulation‐based approach to multistep probabilistic forecasting, applied for predicting the probability and duration of negative inflation. The essence of this approach is in counting runs simulated from a multivariate distribution representing the probabilistic forecasts, which enters the negative inflation regime. The marginal distributions of forecasts are estimated using the series of past forecast errors, and the joint distribution is obtained by a multivariate copula approach. This technique is applied for estimating the probability of negative inflation in China and its expected duration, with the marginal distributions computed by fitting weighted skew‐normal and two‐piece normal distributions to autoregressive moving average ex post forecast errors and using the multivariate Student t copula.     

Control of DNA integrity in skeletal muscle under physiological and pathological conditions

Skeletal muscle is a highly oxygen-consuming tissue that ensures body support and movement, as well as nutrient and temperature regulation. DNA damage induced by reactive oxygen species is present in muscles and tends to accumulate with age. Here, we present a summary of data obtained on DNA damage and its implication in muscle homeostasis, myogenic differentiation and neuromuscular disorders. Controlled and transient DNA damage appears to be essential for muscular homeostasis and differentiation while uncontrolled and chronic DNA damage negatively affects muscle health.     

Cartilage biology, pathology, and repair

Osteoarthritis is one of the most common forms of musculoskeletal disease and the most prominent type of arthritis encountered in all countries. Although great efforts have been made to investigate cartilage biology and osteoarthritis pathology, the treatment has lagged behind that of other arthritides, as there is a lack of effective disease-modifying therapies. Numerous approaches for dealing with cartilage degradation have been tried, but enjoyed very little success to develop approved OA treatments with not only symptomatic improvement but also structure-modifying effect. In this review we discuss the most recent findings regarding the regulation of cartilage biology and pathology and highlight their potential therapeutic values.     

A calcium sensor in the sodium channel modulates cardiac excitability.

Sodium channels are principal molecular determinants responsible for myocardial conduction and maintenance of the cardiac rhythm. Calcium ions (Ca2+) have a fundamental role in the coupling of cardiac myocyte excitation and contraction, yet mechanisms whereby intracellular Ca2+ may directly modulate Na channel function have yet to be identified. Here we show that calmodulin (CaM), a ubiquitous Ca2+-sensing protein, binds to the carboxy-terminal 'IQ' domain of the human cardiac Na channel (hH1) in a Ca2+-dependent manner. This binding interaction significantly enhances slow inactivation-a channel-gating process linked to life-threatening idiopathic ventricular arrhythmias. Mutations targeted to the IQ domain disrupted CaM binding and eliminated Ca2+/CaM-dependent slow inactivation, whereas the gating effects of Ca2+/CaM were restored by intracellular application of a peptide modelled after the IQ domain. A naturally occurring mutation (A1924T) in the IQ domain altered hH1 function in a manner characteristic of the Brugada arrhythmia syndrome, but at the same time inhibited slow inactivation induced by Ca2+/CaM, yielding a clinically benign (arrhythmia free) phenotype.     

The inner jet of an active galactic nucleus as revealed by a radio-to-gamma-ray outburst

Blazars are the most extreme active galactic nuclei. They possess oppositely directed plasma jets emanating at near light speeds from accreting supermassive black holes. According to theoretical models, such jets are propelled by magnetic fields twisted by differential rotation of the black hole's accretion disk or inertial-frame-dragging ergosphere. The flow velocity increases outward along the jet in an acceleration and collimation zone containing a coiled magnetic field. Detailed observations of outbursts of electromagnetic radiation, for which blazars are famous, can potentially probe the zone. It has hitherto not been possible to either specify the location of the outbursts or verify the general picture of jet formation. Here we report sequences of high-resolution radio images and optical polarization measurements of the blazar BL Lacertae. The data reveal a bright feature in the jet that causes a double flare of radiation from optical frequencies to TeV gamma-ray energies, as well as a delayed outburst at radio wavelengths. We conclude that the event starts in a region with a helical magnetic field that we identify with the acceleration and collimation zone predicted by the theories. The feature brightens again when it crosses a standing shock wave corresponding to the bright 'core' seen on the images.     

Magnetic carbon

The discovery of nanostructured forms of molecular carbon has led to renewed interest in the varied properties of this element. Both graphite and C60 can be electron-doped by alkali metals to become superconducting; transition temperatures of up to 52 K have been attained by field-induced hole-doping of C60 (ref. 2). Recent experiments and theoretical studies have suggested that electronic instabilities in pure graphite may give rise to superconducting and ferromagnetic properties, even at room temperature. Here we report the serendipitous discovery of strong magnetic signals in rhombohedral C60. Our intention was to search for superconductivity in polymerized C60; however, it appears that our high-pressure, high-temperature polymerization process results in a magnetically ordered state. The material exhibits features typical of ferromagnets: saturation magnetization, large hysteresis and attachment to a magnet at room temperature. The temperature dependences of the saturation and remanent magnetization indicate a Curie temperature near 500 K.     

Estimating private information usage amongst analysts: evidence from UK earnings forecasts

This paper introduces a methodology for estimating the likelihood of private information usage amongst earnings analysts. This is achieved by assuming that one group of analysts generate forecasts based on the underlying dynamics of earnings, while all other analysts are assumed to issue forecasts based on the prevailing consensus forecast. Given this behavioural dichotomy, we are able to derive (and estimate) a structural econometric model of forecast behaviour, which has implications regarding the determinants of analysts' private information endowments and forecast accuracy over the forecast horizon. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.