考虑氯离子侵蚀时变劣化效应的近海斜拉桥地震易损性分析

为研究氯离子侵蚀对近海大型桥梁地震易损性的时变影响规律,以某近海斜拉桥为对象,建立非线性数值模型并开展增量动力分析,获得主塔等构件及桥梁系统的时变易损性曲线.结果表明,材料腐蚀会导致构件及结构的损伤概率出现不同程度的增加.桥梁结构第1阶自振周期对应的谱加速度Sa(T1)为0.3g时,主塔严重损伤的概率在0、25、50、75、100a五种服役时间下分别为0、8.9％、12.1％、22.1％和35.1％.不同构件的损伤概率差异显著,服役时间为100 a,Sa(T1)= 0.15g时,主塔、桥墩、桩、支座、拉索严重损伤的概率分别为0、0、21.0％、97.4％、6.4％.对于轻微损伤、中等损伤及严重损伤状态,系统易损性主要取决于支座的损伤概率;完全破坏状态则主要取决于桩的损伤概率.因此应重视沿海桥梁抗震性能的时变劣化,在桥梁设计中考虑环境侵蚀的影响.     

A Simulation Method for Analyzing and Evaluating Rail System Performance Based on Speed Profile

This paper presents and discusses a simulation method for analyzing and evaluating system performance on a rail line from the perspective of speed profile. Dynamic analysis for train motions is introduced, and a discrete time-operation graph is proposed to represent the relation between speed profile and energy consumption. Based on them, an analytical model is formulated to provide a quick insight into the system performance. The discrete-time simulation (DTS) method is then implemented to study the system in detail. Compared to the existing simulations, two innovations are included in the DTS: (1) the analytical lookup tables that can simplify the dynamic computation and, (2) the speed profile adjustment process that forecasts and avoids future conflicts based on practical constraints. The numerical results show that the DTS speed profile has advantages over existing methods. Finally, the DTS method is used to analyze and evaluate the system performance of the current timetable on Beijing Yizhuang Metro Line. The results suggest that the current timetable is not robust enough, and thus possible improvements are discussed at both scheduling and operating stages. The proposed method is verified to be effective and reliable for practical uses.     

时标轴上二阶Dirichlet边值问题的弱解（英文）

采用变分方法和临界点理论研究一个时标轴上二阶Dirichlet边值问题弱解的存在性.     

非经典阻尼隔震结构近似实空间解耦分析

提出了可应用于中低层和多高层隔震结构的近似实空间解耦方法.利用强迫解耦法、Kelly法和近似实空间解耦法对具有非经典阻尼特性的隔震结构进行了对比分析,并将结构位移响应用具有明确物理与工程意义的系列二阶标准振子位移响应与速度响应线性组合来表示.通过理论分析和算例求解可知:近似实空间解耦法具有很强的优越性和很高的计算精度,结构隔震层和顶层的位移响应最大误差仅为0.361%和1.444%,可推广应用于隔震结构的动力响应分析.     

江苏省县域经济增长的趋同与差异分析

运用统计分析方法对江苏省2000~2011年县域经济增长的趋同与差异问题进行实证分析.结果表明,在这11年内出现了σ趋同,但不明显,且该阶段存在绝对β趋同;进一步分析发现,江苏省县域经济差距经历了先扩大后缩小的过程,特别是2007年以来,差距缩小的趋势明显.     

用于低层建筑地基的不同长度和掺量椰壳纤维加筋吹填海砂强度参数试验研究

针对海南吹填海砂压实困难、地基承载能力较低的问题,通过直剪试验对椰壳纤维加筋吹填海砂的刚度和抗剪强度进行了研究.结果表明:在吹填海砂中掺入椰壳纤维能够有效提升吹填海砂的力学性能和地基承载力;加筋效果随椰壳纤维加筋土所受垂直应力的增大而增大;椰壳纤维长度小于5 cm时,椰壳纤维对吹填海砂的抗剪强度和刚度随椰壳纤维长度的增大而增大,在椰壳纤维长度达到8 cm时,抗剪强度和刚度反而下降;椰壳纤维加筋土的刚度和最大剪应力一直随椰壳纤维掺量的增大而增大,内摩擦角在椰壳纤维掺量小于0.3%时随掺量增大而增大,当掺量超过0.3%后内摩擦角无明显变化.     

Forecasting stock volatility in the presence of extreme shocks: Short-term and long-term effects

This paper introduces a novel generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity–mixed data sampling–extreme shocks (GARCH-MIDAS-ES) model for stock volatility to examine whether the importance of extreme shocks changes in different time ranges. Based on different combinations of the short- and long-term effects caused by extreme events, we extend the standard GARCH-MIDAS model to characterize the different responses of the stock market for short- and long-term horizons, separately or in combination. The unique timespan of nearly 100 years of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) daily returns allows us to understand the stock market volatility under extreme shocks from a historical perspective. The in-sample empirical results clearly show that the DJIA stock volatility is best fitted to the GARCH-MIDAS-SLES model by including the short- and long-term impacts of extreme shocks for all forecasting horizons. The out-of-sample results and robustness tests emphasize the significance of decomposing the effect of extreme shocks into short- and long-term effects to improve the accuracy of the DJIA volatility forecasts.