基于灰色模型的旅游地客源预测--以信阳南湾风景区为例

旅游地客源数据对于判断一特定的旅游地在其“生命周期”中所处的阶段具有重要的指示意义,传统的线性预测方法不适用于处于稳定发展期的旅游地的客源预测.旅游地客源市场除了受自身条件的限制,还受众多外部影响因素的控制,很难用确定的数学模型对这些因素进行精确的定量评估.灰色系统理论将旅游地的发展变迁当作一个灰色系统,用灰色模型去发掘、认识其原始时间数据序列中所蕴涵的内在规律,从而预测旅游地客源市场的发展走势.通过对信阳南湾风景区客源市场进行实证分析,可以看出灰色预测模型具有较高的建模精度,预测方法和结果对其他旅游地的客源市场预测具有一定的借鉴和参考价值.     

Disc-Electrospun PCL Nanofiber Formed Micro-patterned Structure Scaffold

Disc-electrospinning using a disc as spinneret and a rotary drum as collector is a novel technology to prepare nanofiber which has been applied in tissue engineering scaffolds. In this study, nanofibrous mats with mlcro-patterned structure were fabricated via disc-electrospinning. Poly （ε-eaprolactone） （PCL） was dissolved in trifluoroethanol （TFE） at various concentrations （ 2 %-7 % ） （w/v） for electrospinning and the applied voltage ranged from 40 to 70 kV. Scanning electron microscopy （SEM） was employed to observe the morphology of the nanofibrous scaffolds. SEM images illustrated that the nanofibers with beads formed micro-patterned structure such as triangles and other polygons. The average diameter of nanofibers presented various size with the concentration increased from 2% to 7%. The beads on the nanofibers constructed the vertexes of the polygons, while nanofibers bridged between adjacent vertexes. The concentration of solution and applied voltage may be two dominant factors to influence the topological structure of the nanofibrons scaffolds. Cells cultured on the micro-patterned scaffold spread along the edges of the polygons. The scaffold with patterned structure may have a promising application in tissue engineering.