Dynamic Model Averaging and CPI Inflation Forecasts: A Comparison between the Euro Area and the United States

The paper forecasts consumer price inflation in the euro area (EA) and in the USA between 1980:Q1 and 2012:Q4 based on a large set of predictors, with dynamic model averaging (DMA) and dynamic model selection (DMS). DMA/DMS allows not solely for coefficients to change over time, but also for changes in the entire forecasting model over time. DMA/DMS provides on average the best inflation forecasts with regard to alternative approaches (such as the random walk). DMS outperforms DMA. These results are robust for different sample periods and for various forecast horizons. The paper highlights common features between the USA and the EA. First, two groups of predictors forecast inflation: temporary fundamentals that have a frequent impact on inflation but only for short time periods; and persistent fundamentals whose switches are less frequent over time. Second, the importance of some variables (particularly international food commodity prices, house prices and oil prices) as predictors for consumer price index inflation increases when such variables experience large shocks. The paper also shows that significant differences prevail in the forecasting models between the USA and the EA. Such differences can be explained by the structure of these respective economies. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

What do numerical (climate) models really represent?

The translation of a mathematical model into a numerical one employs various modifications in order to make the model accessible for computation. Such modifications include discretizations, approximations, heuristic assumptions, and other methods. The paper investigates the divergent styles of mathematical and numerical models in the case of a specific piece of code in a current atmospheric model. Cognizance of these modifications means that the question of the role and function of scientific models has to be reworked. Neither are numerical models pure intermediaries between theory and data, nor are they autonomous tools of inquiry. Instead, theory and data are transformed into a new symbolic form of research due to the fact that computation has become an essential requirement for every scientific practice. Therefore the question is posed: What do numerical (climate) models really represent?     

An endoribonuclease-prepared siRNA screen in human cells identifies genes essential for cell division

RNA interference (RNAi) is an evolutionarily conserved defence mechanism whereby genes are specifically silenced through degradation of messenger RNAs; this process is mediated by homologous double-stranded (ds)RNA molecules. In invertebrates, long dsRNAs have been used for genome-wide screens and have provided insights into gene functions. Because long dsRNA triggers a nonspecific interferon response in many vertebrates, short interfering (si)RNA or short hairpin (sh)RNAs must be used for these organisms to ensure specific gene silencing. Here we report the generation of a genome-scale library of endoribonuclease-prepared short interfering (esi)RNAs from a sequence-verified complementary DNA collection representing 15,497 human genes. We used 5,305 esiRNAs from this library to screen for genes required for cell division in HeLa cells. Using a primary high-throughput cell viability screen followed by a secondary high content videomicroscopy assay, we identified 37 genes required for cell division. These include several splicing factors for which knockdown generates mitotic spindle defects. In addition, a putative nuclear-export terminator was found to speed up cell proliferation and mitotic progression after knockdown. Thus, our study uncovers new aspects of cell division and establishes esiRNA as a versatile approach for genomic RNAi screens in mammalian cells.     

Ablation of cyclase-associated protein 2 (CAP2) leads to cardiomyopathy

Cyclase-associated proteins are highly conserved proteins that have a role in the regulation of actin dynamics. Higher eukaryotes have two isoforms, CAP1 and CAP2. To study the in vivo function of CAP2, we generated mice in which the CAP2 gene was inactivated by a gene-trap approach. Mutant mice showed a decrease in body weight and had a decreased survival rate. Further, they developed a severe cardiac defect marked by dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) associated with drastic reduction in basal heart rate and prolongations in atrial and ventricular conduction times. Moreover, CAP2-deficient myofibrils exhibited reduced cooperativity of calcium-regulated force development. At the microscopic level, we observed disarrayed sarcomeres with development of fibrosis. We analyzed CAP2’s role in actin assembly and found that it sequesters G-actin and efficiently fragments filaments. This activity resides completely in its WASP homology domain. Thus CAP2 is an essential component of the myocardial sarcomere and is essential for physiological functioning of the cardiac system, and a deficiency leads to DCM and various cardiac defects.     

Boulding's typology elaborated: A framework for understanding school and classroom systems

The scope of current educational reform themes is wide. Power is shifted from central governments to local, from administrative office to school site, from principal to teachers, from teacher to students. This is hopeful because traditional reform efforts have been counterproductive. These new themes parallel a worldwide paradigm shift from viewing relationships as monocausal and top-down regulating to interactive and self-regulating. The new themes are also problematic because resulting reform efforts are conflicting, proposing either control or flexibility, which increases harmful out-comes. This paper elaborates Boulding's typology of system complexity drawing from education and related disciplines. The elaboration unifies conflicting perspectives and explains why school reforms fail. Agency in change is clarified. The change model that results highlights system adjustment capacities and specifies both control and flexibility: control of morphostatic subsystems for maintaining access to resources of time, materials, equipment, and energy; and flexibility in morphogenic subsystems for learning, growth, and differentiation.     

Climate sensitivity constrained by temperature reconstructions over the past seven centuries

The magnitude and impact of future global warming depends on the sensitivity of the climate system to changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. The commonly accepted range for the equilibrium global mean temperature change in response to a doubling of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, termed climate sensitivity, is 1.5-4.5 K (ref. 2). A number of observational studies, however, find a substantial probability of significantly higher sensitivities, yielding upper limits on climate sensitivity of 7.7 K to above 9 K (refs 3-8). Here we demonstrate that such observational estimates of climate sensitivity can be tightened if reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere temperature over the past several centuries are considered. We use large-ensemble energy balance modelling and simulate the temperature response to past solar, volcanic and greenhouse gas forcing to determine which climate sensitivities yield simulations that are in agreement with proxy reconstructions. After accounting for the uncertainty in reconstructions and estimates of past external forcing, we find an independent estimate of climate sensitivity that is very similar to those from instrumental data. If the latter are combined with the result from all proxy reconstructions, then the 5-95 per cent range shrinks to 1.5-6.2 K, thus substantially reducing the probability of very high climate sensitivity.     

Multilevel Techniques for the Solution of HJB Minimum-Time Control Problems

Journal of Systems Science and Complexity - The solution of minimum-time feedback optimal control problems is generally achieved using the dynamic programming approach, in which the value function...     

D2A sequence of the urokinase receptor induces cell growth through αvβ3 integrin and EGFR

The urokinase receptor (uPAR) stimulates cell proliferation by forming a macromolecular complex with αvβ3 integrin and the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR, ErbB1 or HER1) that we name the uPAR proliferasome. uPAR transactivates EGFR, which in turn mediates uPAR-initiated mitogenic signal to the cell. EGFR activation and EGFR-dependent cell growth are blocked in the absence of uPAR expression or when uPAR activity is inhibited by antibodies against either uPAR or EGFR. The mitogenic sequence of uPAR corresponds to the D2A motif present in domain 2. NMR analysis revealed that D2A synthetic peptide has a particular three-dimensional structure, which is atypical for short peptides. D2A peptide is as effective as EGF in promoting EGFR phosphorylation and cell proliferation that were inhibited by AG1478, a specific inhibitor of the tyrosine kinase activity of EGFR. Both D2A and EGF failed to induce proliferation of NR6-EGFR-K721A cells expressing a kinase-defective mutant of EGFR. Moreover, D2A peptide and EGF phosphorylate ERK demonstrating the involvement of the MAP kinase signalling pathway. Altogether, this study reveals the importance of sequence D2A of uPAR, and the interdependence of uPAR and EGFR.     

Conceiving processes in atmospheric models—General equations,subscale parameterizations,and ‘superparameterizations’

The scientific understanding of atmospheric processes has been rooted in the mechanical and physical view of nature ever since dynamic meteorology gained ground in the late 19th century. Conceiving the atmosphere as a giant ‘air mass circulation engine’ entails applying hydro- and thermodynamical theory to the subject in order to describe the atmosphere’s behaviour on small scales. But when it comes to forecasting, it turns out that this view is far too complex to be computed. The limitation of analytical methods precludes an exact solution, forcing scientists to make use of numerical simulation. However, simulation introduces two prerequisites to meteorology: First, the partitioning of the theoretical view into two parts—the large-scale behaviour of the atmosphere, and the effects of smaller-scale processes on this large-scale behaviour, so-called parametrizations; and second, the dependency on computational power in order to achieve a higher resolution. The history of today’s atmospheric circulation modelling can be reconstructed as the attempt to improve the handling of these basic constraints. It can be further seen as the old schism between theory and application under new circumstances, which triggers a new discussion about the question of how processes may be conceived in atmospheric modelling.