基于随机访问扫描的低功耗确定性测试方案

大规模高密度的集成电路在测试中面临着测试数据量大、测试时间长和测试功耗高的问题.为此提出了一种基于随机访问扫描(random access scan,RAS)的混合模式测试体系结构,该测试方法先通过自动测试模式生成一个确定测试集,再将确定测试集嵌入片上生成的测试序列中进行确定性测试.测试分两个阶段进行,第一阶段利用块固定折叠计数器生成的具有块固定特征的测试模式序列,测试电路中的大部分故障;第二阶段,通过位跳变方法生成确定测试模式,测试剩余的难测故障.在ISCAS-89基准电路上的实验结果表明,该方案不仅减少了测试存储量和测试时间,而且有效地降低了测试功耗.     

我国建筑业发展与其能源消费关系的协整分析

采用我国1981—2007年间数据,运用协整分析技术和格兰杰因果检验分析了我国建筑业产值和能耗之间的关系.结论表明:建筑能源的消耗可以支撑起建筑业的发展,但建筑业的发展并非必然依靠能源的大量消耗,从而为建筑业寻找新的经济增长点及绿色节能建筑的开发应用提供理论依据.     

混沌算子网络在经济数据预测中的应用研究

采用多个混沌算子单元组成一种新的预测网络,实现经济数据的预测分析.利用已知数据构造出训练样本,通过调节混沌算子单元的控制参数来控制其动力学特性,以此改变预测网络的动力学行为,使预测网络的动力学特性逐渐逼近被预测系统,并随之一致变化,从而实现时间序列的动态预测分析.利用该方法对国内生产总值和国民总收入等经济数据进行了预测...     

Forecast Combination and Bayesian Model Averaging: A Prior Sensitivity Analysis

In this study we evaluate the forecast performance of model‐averaged forecasts based on the predictive likelihood carrying out a prior sensitivity analysis regarding Zellner's g prior. The main results are fourfold. First, the predictive likelihood does always better than the traditionally employed ‘marginal’ likelihood in settings where the true model is not part of the model space. Secondly, forecast accuracy as measured by the root mean square error (RMSE) is maximized for the median probability model. On the other hand, model averaging excels in predicting direction of changes. Lastly, g should be set according to Laud and Ibrahim (1995: Predictive model selection. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B 57 : 247–262) with a hold‐out sample size of 25% to minimize the RMSE (median model) and 75% to optimize direction of change forecasts (model averaging). We finally apply the aforementioned recommendations to forecast the monthly industrial production output of six countries, beating for almost all countries the AR(1) benchmark model. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

How Informative are the Subjective Density Forecasts of Macroeconomists?

In this paper, we propose a framework to evaluate the subjective density forecasts of macroeconomists using micro data from the euro area Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). A key aspect of our analysis is the use of evaluation measures which take account of the entire predictive densities, and not just the probability assigned to the outcome that occurs. Overall, we find considerable heterogeneity in the performance of the surveyed densities at the individual level. However, it is hard to exploit this heterogeneity and improve aggregate performance by trimming poorly performing forecasters in real time. Relative to a set of simple benchmarks, density performance is somewhat better for GDP growth than for inflation, although in the former case it diminishes substantially with the forecast horizon. In addition, we report evidence of an improvement in the relative performance of expert densities during the recent period of macroeconomic volatility. However, our analysis also reveals clear evidence of overconfidence or neglected risks in expert probability assessments, as reflected in frequent occurrences of events which are assigned a zero probability. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

甘肃河西绿洲灌区农田水分动态变化的模拟研究

根据农田土壤水量平衡原理，对甘肃河西绿洲灌区农田水分变化进行动态模拟和分析，模拟结果精度高。由水分指数评价土壤含水量的实际状况，确定了灌水的具体日期，为控制土壤水分，提高水分生产率，实现节水与高效提供了科学依据。表3，参9。     

基于自适应神经网络的边坡位移预测

通过对边坡位移历史数据序列进行特征分析 ,计算出饱和嵌入维数和最大 Lyapunov指数 ,给出了边坡位移的最大可预报时间尺度。在此基础上 ,确定了神经网络的输入节点数 ,建立了基于自适应神经网络的边坡位移预报方法 .通过对三峡升船机高边坡和新滩滑坡实际位移数据进行预测 ,结果令人满意 .这对于建立边坡位移的实时监测 -预警系统有重要意义.     

不同信息源条件下的目标初始位置分布预测

为使目标的初始位置分布假设更为合理，根据海上搜索编队所携带探测器材的特点，分析了搜索编队执行搜索任务时可能获得的多种信息源，并将之划分为精确信息源、模糊信息源和推测信息源3类，分别阐述了搜索编队在获得3种不同信息源情况下目标初始位置分布的预测方法．通过实例仿真，给出了海上搜索编队在获得不同信息源情况下的后续搜索行动建议，该方法可作为对海上搜索编队的搜索战法研究的参考．     

可持续发展的食品体系及绿色消费体系构建研究

构建可持续发展的区域食品体系,是促进我国可持续发展的现实选择。它不仅能促进区域经济繁荣和区域自然资源的保持,缩短食品流通距离,降低流通成本,而且还可以创造更多的就业机会来提高农民的收益。建立可持续发展的区域食品体系,关键在于持续生产模式、健康消费模式和食品安全保证体系及绿色销售渠道的构建。     

GLC并联电路暂态过程衰减系数的能耗分析

分析了GLC并联电路欠阻尼振荡衰减系数的实验测量值与理论值偏差的原因,以振荡衰减的实验波为基础,测算出电路电容和电感上的损耗电导。对衰减系数的理论值进行修正,可使衰减系数理论修正值与实验测量值基本一致。