甘肃河西绿洲灌区农田水分动态变化的模拟研究

根据农田土壤水量平衡原理，对甘肃河西绿洲灌区农田水分变化进行动态模拟和分析，模拟结果精度高。由水分指数评价土壤含水量的实际状况，确定了灌水的具体日期，为控制土壤水分，提高水分生产率，实现节水与高效提供了科学依据。表3，参9。     

基于自适应神经网络的边坡位移预测

通过对边坡位移历史数据序列进行特征分析 ,计算出饱和嵌入维数和最大 Lyapunov指数 ,给出了边坡位移的最大可预报时间尺度。在此基础上 ,确定了神经网络的输入节点数 ,建立了基于自适应神经网络的边坡位移预报方法 .通过对三峡升船机高边坡和新滩滑坡实际位移数据进行预测 ,结果令人满意 .这对于建立边坡位移的实时监测 -预警系统有重要意义.     

不同信息源条件下的目标初始位置分布预测

为使目标的初始位置分布假设更为合理，根据海上搜索编队所携带探测器材的特点，分析了搜索编队执行搜索任务时可能获得的多种信息源，并将之划分为精确信息源、模糊信息源和推测信息源3类，分别阐述了搜索编队在获得3种不同信息源情况下目标初始位置分布的预测方法．通过实例仿真，给出了海上搜索编队在获得不同信息源情况下的后续搜索行动建议，该方法可作为对海上搜索编队的搜索战法研究的参考．     

农业科研系列晋职初审程序电子化方案设计(1)—晋职预报

以职称晋升为例,尝试通过Excel平台对农业科研系列晋职初审程序进行设计,利用代码、函数等通过数据链接等方法实现农业科研系列晋职初审程序的自动化,探索晋职审核的电子化途径,以简化工作程序,增强工作主动性和前瞻性,提高管理效率和水平.     

Testing homogeneity of Japanese CPI forecasters

This paper investigates whether some forecasters consistently outperform others using Japanese CPI forecast data of 42 forecasters over the past 18 quarters. It finds that the accuracy rankings of 0, 1, 2, and 5‐month forecasts are significantly different from those that might be expected when all forecasters had equal forecasting ability. Moreover, their rankings of the relative forecast levels are also significantly different from a random one. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Analysts’ Dynamic Decisions: Timeliness versus Accuracy

For analysts there is a tradeoff between the accuracy and the timeliness of their forecasts. Prior literature heavily investigates analyst forecast accuracy. Few papers investigate the importance of timeliness. To our best knowledge, there are no empirical papers to date to investigate the dynamic interplay between these key characteristics. We show that if analysts experience a period of high accuracy relative to their peers, they subsequently focus more on the timeliness of their forecasts in the subsequent period and thus issue their forecasts earlier than they did in the prior period. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

求解频率指配问题改进的完全图算法

以四级预测模型为基础,提出改进的完全图算法,并推导出该算法计算量的解析式,从理论上证明了改进的完全图算法性能上的提高.四级预测模型来判断两电台之间的兼容性,而改进的完全图算法调用四级预测模型来搜索出多电台间的所有可用频组,进行了小规模电台数目电子信息系统的完整电磁兼容分析,完成了系统内的频率指配.实际工程应用的结果与理论一致.     

Do Long‐Run Theory Restrictions Help in Forecasting?

Do long‐run equilibrium relations suggested by economic theory help to improve the forecasting performance of a cointegrated vector error correction model (VECM)? In this paper we try to answer this question in the context of a two‐country model developed for the Canadian and US economies. We compare the forecasting performance of the exactly identified cointegrated VECMs to the performance of the over‐identified VECMs with the long‐run theory restrictions imposed. We allow for model uncertainty and conduct this comparison for every possible combination of the cointegration ranks of the Canadian and US models. We show that the over‐identified structural cointegrated models generally outperform the exactly identified models in forecasting Canadian macroeconomic variables. We also show that the pooled forecasts generated from the over‐identified models beat most of the individual exactly identified and over‐identified models as well as the VARs in levels and in differences. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

混合正交双向小波包的研究

混合正交双向小波包基是一种包含多个正交双向小波函数的小波包基.本文将正交双向小波包推广到混合正交双向小波包,研究了混合正交双向小波包的性质及其分解算法.     

KNN算法的数据优化策略

为了解决基于KNN（K-Nearest Neighbors）算法的非参数回归短时交通状态预测模型执行效率低的问题，提出了KNN算法的数据优化策略。通过对交通状态时空特性的研究，采用层次化对象构造交通状态向量，并根据交通状态的自重复性对历史样本数据库进行数据压缩。实验证明，优化策略提高了KNN算法的执行效率,经过压缩后的数据存取时间比压缩前缩短了8.66%。