湖泊沉积物记录的过去两千年青藏高原南部干湿变化及其驱动机制

基于青藏高原南部过去2000a高分辨率的降水/湿度重建序列,通过区域对比以及集成分析方法,探讨了青藏高原南部过去2000a气候干湿变化的时空特征,并对典型时段中世纪暖期(AD 600-1400年)和小冰期(AD 1400-1900年)高原南部气候变化的特征和机制进行了着重探讨.结果显示:整体而言,过去2000a青藏高原南部气候变化显著,表现出AD 1-600年由湿转干、AD 600-1400年干旱以及AD 1400年后湿润的特征;对比分析表明,青藏高原南部在中世纪暖期和小冰期"暖干"/"冷湿"的特征,与高原东南部以及西北部地区相似,而与高原东部地区相反;过去2000a青藏高原南部气候干湿变化可能与印度季风和西风强度变化、西风在青藏高原上的季节性移动以及蒸散发强度变化有关.     

西南季风演化与南半球气候的联系

印度(西南)季风降水对我国西南地区有着重要的影响,但是与东亚季风相比较,总的来说对印度季风的研究十分薄弱,并且其认识主要来自于海洋沉积物。那么西南季风演化的规律究竟是什么?西南季风与东亚季风、西风环流在时空上的演化关系是什么?它们之间的演化存在着怎样的动力学联系?西南季风气候变迁与南北半球气候所驱动的海陆气相互作用的动力学机制究竟是什么?这些都是值得关注的科学问题。通过云南鹤庆深钻湖泊沉积物的深入分析,结合不同盆地周边的地层、火山岩及地貌特征,建立区域构造-沉积旋回演化的年代框架,分析其记录的季风气候演化历史及其与青藏高原、南半球气候变化的联系。同时拟在南部的云南腾冲青海钻取沉积物岩心,建立MIS3以来沉积序列高分辨率年代框架,分析各环境代用指标,结合现代湖泊环境定量转换函数研究,加强湖泊生物指标定量研究,获取冰期/间冰期旋回尺度上的西南季风演化过程。在构造尺度上,揭示西南季风强度、变率及季节性变迁的动力学机制,及其与高原阶段性隆升的内在联系、对区域剥蚀-风化过程的制约;在冰期/间冰期尺度上,研究植物种群和湖泊生物多样性的演替阶段与过程,开展海洋和陆地生物地球化学指标(碳氧同位素、微量元素)对比研究,从机理上探讨南北半球气候与西南季风周期、季节性的内在联系。云南鹤庆盆地获得的666 m高质量湖泊岩心,提供了更新世以来高分辨率的印度夏季风陆地记录,揭示了更新世过去260万年印度季风变迁的历史,通过印度夏季风指标序列在冰期-间冰期旋回内的精细结构,揭示了南北半球间跨赤道气压梯度的变化及印度季风变化影响的动力学机制。在间冰期内,印度夏季风的变化主要受控于印度低压的强度,间冰期气温增高所引起的北半球热力牵引也是导致印度季风增强的重要因素;而在盛冰期中,印度季风极小值发生在南极温度几乎达到最低值时,印度夏季风强度却往往提前于全球冰量最大值约1.4至3.5万年出现,此后开始增强,这是南半球气温变化通过马斯克林高压而产生的气压推动的结果。云南腾冲青海沉积记录了末次冰盛期的古气候特征,总体主要受控于印度季风强弱的变化。该记录与亚洲季风区石笋、阿拉伯海等记录的季风气候变化趋势非常一致,表明18Ka以来印度夏季风受北半球太阳和ITCZ平均位置移动的影响。该记录同时与格陵兰冰芯δ18O记录高度相关,证实印度季风与高纬气候之间具有密切联系。     

过去两千年青藏高原百年尺度温度变化的时空格局

基于青藏高原过去2000 a高分辨率的温度代用序列，通过区域对比以及集成分析方法，深入分析青藏高原过去2000 a温度变化的时空特征。结果表明：过去2000 a青藏高原温度变化可以划分为4个世纪尺度的冷暖时期，即0—600 AD和1400—1900 AD的冷期、600—1400 AD和20世纪的暖期，其中1400—1900 AD和600—1400 AD可能分别对应于欧洲的小冰期和中世纪暖期；青藏高原过去2000 a温度变化存在很强的季节性特征，年平均气温变化存在争议，但夏季温度变化较为一致；夏季温度记录表明20世纪升温并不是很显著，中世纪暖期是过去2000 a中升温最显著且最温暖的时段。目前，青藏高原过去2000 a古温度记录仍存在空白区域，转换函数的选取、气候指标的季节性差异以及定年误差等因素都可能增加温度序列的不确定性。未来，在青藏高原还需要重建更多高质量(高分辨率、有准确的年龄控制、明确的季节性以及精确的气候指示意义)的古温度记录，以更深入地揭示青藏高原温度变化的时空格局及机制。     

从MWP看20世纪全球变暖

气候变暖已引起全球的广泛关注,正确的认识当前的气候变化已成为亟待解决的问题．目前的主流观点虽然认为近几十年的升温是由人类活动导致的,但许多学者发现MWP时期的气温与现代相当甚至更暖．结合国内外学者对MWP的研究,对比了MWP与现代暖期的温暖程度,指出20世纪暖期并不是过去千年最暖的世纪,现代升温可能只是气候冷暖波动中的一次自然现象,是uA过后的正常回暖．因此对MWP的认识对于人们深入认识当前全球变暖的性质和原因,具有十分重要的意义．     

南海夏季风强弱年青藏高原地区春季大气的低频振荡特征

利用NCEP／NCAR再分析资料和气象台站逐日地温、气温观测资料,通过带通滤波的方法对南海夏季风典型强弱年,青藏高原地区3—6月大气低频振荡信号分布和传播特征进行了分析研究．指出在春季青藏高原地区的高度场和纬向风场存在30-60d大气低频振荡、准双周和5—7d的大气振荡．揭示了在典型的南海夏季风强、弱年,200hPa,500hPa上低频振荡产生的位置,强度及传播特征各不相同．在典型强季风年份,高原北部形成低频振荡并向北传播;而在弱季风年份,高原地区的低频振荡具有原地振荡的显著特征．在强季风年,高原的非绝热加热削弱高原地区低频波,非绝热加热在高原以外的东西两侧中再现出来,与南北两支急流相联系．在弱季风年份,高原地区的非绝热加热起着加强高原地区低频波的作用;形成了以高原为中心的准南北方向上的振荡特征．     

Debating about the climate warming

Debating about the climate warming is reviewed. Discussions have focused on the validity of the temperature reconstruction for the last millennium made by Mann et al. Arguments against and for the reconstruction are introduced. Temperature reconstructions by other authors are examined, including the one carried out by Wang et al. in 1996. It is concluded that: (1) Ability of reproducing temperature variability of time scale less than 10 a is limited, so no sufficient evidence proves that the 1990s was the warmest decade, and 1998 was the warmest year over the last millennium. (2) All of the temperature reconstructions by different authors demonstrate the occurrence of the MWP (Medieval Warm Period) and LIA (Little Ice Age) in low frequency band of temperature variations, though the peak in the MWP and trough in LIA varies from one reconstruction to the others. Therefore, terms of MWP and LIA can be used in studies of climate change. (3) The warming from 1975 to 2000 was significant, but we do not know if it was the strongest for the last millennium, which needs to be proved by more evidence.     

东亚夏季风北边缘的确认

综合降水、风场以及假相当位温场,定义了表征东亚夏季风北边缘的新标准．这一定义能较客观地反映出夏季风推进的过程．其后,比较了4种表征东亚夏季风指数与夏季风边缘最北位置指数间的异同,证明后者与东亚夏季风指数之间有着不同的气候学意义:东亚夏季风指数集中反映的是东亚季风(30°N附近的长江中下游地区)主体特征;东亚夏季风边缘带作为它的边缘部分,集中反映出我国北方(35°N以北)夏季降水的年际和年代际变化特征．从计算得到的1961—2001年(41年)东亚夏季风边缘带最北位置序列中发现,在1977—1979年期间其最北位置发生了明显的年代际转变．构造的夏季风边缘最北位置指数序列和我国华北地区夏季降水相关较好,可以作为华北旱涝的一个指标．     

关于气候变暖的争议

综合评述了关于气候变暖的争议,重点介绍了有关对Mann等建立的千年温度变化曲线的评估,并介绍了争议各方的论点.比较了王绍武等于1996年建立的千年全球平均温度曲线与其他作者的结果.指出:(1)Mann等千年温度曲线反演年到10年尺度气温变化的能力较差.IPCC报告认为1990s是近千年最暖的10年,1998年是最暖的1年的结论证据不足.(2)不同作者的气温低频变化曲线上,中世纪暖期(MWP)及小冰期(LIA)均有反映.不应该反对使用这两个名词.(3)20世纪,特别是1975-2000年的变暖是比较强的.但是,是否这是近千年来最强的,仍需要更多的资料证实.     

中世纪暖期和现代暖期中国季风降水时空模式及其机制

IPCC第五次评估报告认为中世纪暖期(950—1250 A.D.)和现代暖期(20世纪增温)存在具有高可信度.气象观测结果显示20世纪中期以来的显著增温时期,中国降水变化呈现典型的"南涝北旱"两极模式.然而,这一模式与中世纪暖期代用指标重建降水所揭示的"南干北湿"模式存在显著差异,且这一差异的动力学机制亦不明确.继承大气降水氧同位素(δ~(18)O)的中国石笋δ~(18)O记录是描述水循环演变历史信息的理想天然示踪剂.本文将北京石花洞(中国北方)和贵州董哥洞(中国南方)石笋δ~(18)O记录进行对比,基于δ~(18)O-降水-大气环流信号之间的机理联系,解析中世纪和现代暖期大气降水时空模式及其机制.结果显示中世纪暖期石花洞石笋δ~(18)O值显著负偏,指示亚洲夏季风增强,雨带北移,印度洋远源水汽输送增加,而南方洞穴石笋δ~(18)O值相对正偏,指示降水减少或者蒸发加强,局地环流降水增加.在中世纪暖期,洞穴记录对比结果呈现与其他指标重建结果一致的"南干北湿"模式. 20世纪增温时期,石花洞与董哥洞石笋记录均显示δ~(18)O值正偏过程,指示夏季风减弱,雨带南移,北方降水减少;南方降水则由近源水汽输送所控制.研究结果暗示中世纪暖期亚洲夏季风增强可能是气候自然变率的结果,而现代暖期季风减弱则可能与人类活动影响下的海温异常有关.     

1951—2015年信阳极端温度事件变化及其对全球变暖的响应

利用1951—2015年信阳市日最高和日最低气温资料,根据事件发生概率密度函数大于90%(或小于10%)的标,准定义了信阳市逐年的冷夜日数、暖夜日数、暖昼日数和冷昼日数.在此基础上,运用统计学方法分析了过去65年信阳市极端温度事件的变化特征及其对气候变化的敏感程度.结果表明:(1)1951—2015年信阳市年平均气温呈显著增暖趋势,变暖速率为2.0℃/100a;(2)过去65年信阳市冷夜日数以4.4d/10a的速率呈显著减少趋势(p<0.001),暖夜日数则以8.3d/10a速率显著增加(p<0.001),且其增加速率大于冷夜日数减少速率;暖昼日数以1981年为界呈先减少后增加的变化趋势,1951-1981年减少趋势为-11.6d/10a,1982-2015年增加趋势为13.7d/10a;过去65年冷昼日数年际变化不明显但年代震荡强烈;(3)信阳市极端温度事件对气候变化的响应程度呈不对称性.年均温每升高1℃,相当于冷夜日数和冷昼日数分别减少18.7d和12.5d,暖夜和暖昼日数分别增加26.9d和18.3d.在相同的气候背景下,暖夜日数对气候变化最为敏感,而冷昼日数对气候变化的敏感度最低.     

Classification of Tibetan lakes based on variations in seasonal lake water temperature

Widespread lakes on the Tibetan Plateau （TP） are valuable archives for investigating climate and environment changes, which could provide essential information on the mechanisms of past climate changes on the TP and their interaction with the global climate systems. However, there is a lack of in-depth investigation of modern limnological processes in the Tibetan lakes, which hampers the understanding of paleolimnological records and lake ecosystem succession. In this study, we performed continuous temperature monitoring at two lakes, Bangong Co, a freshwater lake in the western TP, and Dagze Co, a brackish lake in the central TP, in order to characterize the patterns of seasonal temperature variability, stratification, and mixing. Temperature data for an entire hydrological year demonstrate that Bangong Co is a dimictic lake and that Dagze Co is a meromictic lake. The higher salinity in the deep water at Dagze Co prevents the lake from overturning completely, and this finding is supported by simulations using a physical limnological model Lake Analyzer. Continuous lake water temperature monitoring provides fundamental data for classifying Tibetan lakes, as well as the hydrological basis for understanding their pa- leolimnological records and ecosystem succession.     

Characteristics of decadal-centennial-scale changes in East Asian summer monsoon circulation and precipitation during the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age and in the present day

Using meteorological observations, proxies of precipitation and temperature, and climate simulation outputs, we synthetically analyzed the regularities of decadal-centennial-scale changes in the summer thermal contrast between land and ocean and summer precipitation over the East Asian monsoon region during the past millennium; compared the basic characteristics of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) circulation and precipitation in the present day, the Little Ice Age (LIA) and the Medieval Warm Period (MWP); and explored their links with solar irradiance and global climate change. The results indicate that over the last 150 years, the EASM circulation and precipitation, indicated by the temperature contrast between the East Asian mainland and adjacent oceans, had a significant decadal perturbation and have been weaker during the period of rapid global warming over the past 50 years. On the centennial time scale, the EASM in the MWP was strongest over the past 1000 years. Over the past 1000 years, the EASM was weakest in 1450?C1570. When the EASM circulation was weaker, the monsoon rain belt over eastern China was generally located more southward, with there being less precipitation in North China and more precipitation in the Yangtze River valley; therefore, there was an anomalous pattern of southern flood/northern drought. From the 1900s to 1920s, precipitation had a pattern opposite to that of the southern flood/northern drought, with there being less precipitation in the Yangtze River valley and more precipitation in North China. Compared with the case for the MWP, there was a longer-time-scale southern flood/northern drought phenomenon in 1400?C1600. Moreover, the EASM circulation and precipitation did not synchronously vary with the trend of global temperature. During the last 150 years, although the annual mean surface temperature around the world and in China has increased, the EASM circulation and precipitation did not have strengthening or weakening trends. Over the past 1000 years, the weakest EASM occurred ahead of the lowest Northern Hemispheric temperature and corresponded to the weakest solar irradiance.     

Influence of the Tibetan Plateau uplift on the Asian monsoon-arid environment evolution

As one of the most important geological events in Cenozoic era,the uplift of the Tibetan Plateau(TP)has had profound influences on the Asian and global climate and environment evolution.During the past four decades,many scholars from China and abroad have studied climatic and environmental effects of the TP uplift by using a variety of geological records and paleoclimate numerical simulations.The existing research results enrich our understanding of the mechanisms of Asian monsoon changes and interior aridification,but so far there are still a lot of issues that need to be thought deeply and investigated further.This paper attempts to review the research on the influence of the TP uplift on the Asian monsoon-arid environment,summarize three types of numerical simulations including bulk-plateau uplift,phased uplift and sub-regional uplift,and especially to analyze regional differences in responses of climate and environment to different forms of tectonic uplifts.From previous modeling results,the land-sea distribution and the Himalayan uplift may have a large effect in the establishment and development of the South Asian monsoon.However,the formation and evolution of the monsoon in northern East Asia,the intensified dryness north of the TP and enhanced Asian dust cycle may be more closely related to the uplift of the main body,especially the northern part of the TP.In this review,we also discuss relative roles of the TP uplift and other impact factors,origins of the South Asian monsoon and East Asian monsoon,feedback effects and nonlinear responses of climatic and environmental changes to the plateau uplift.Finally,we make comparisons between numerical simulations and geological records,discuss their uncertainties,and highlight some problems worthy of further studying.     

Abrupt Holocene changes of the Asian monsoon at millennial- and centennial-scales: Evidence from lake sediment document in Minqin Basin, NW China

Considerable research is now focusing on abrupt Holocene changes at millennial- and centennial-scales all over the world. This study shows that the changes in the Holocene summer monsoon can be divided into two main periods, based on climatic proxy records of lake sediments from the Sanjiaocheng section located at the NW boundary of the summer monsoon, Gansu Province. The early and middle Holocene was humid with stronger summer monsoon, while the late Holocene is dry with weak summer monsoon. Detailed results also show a series of millennial- and centennial-scale changes in the intensity of the summer monsoon, with a periodicity of {dy1600} years during the whole Holocene, and with a periodicity of 800 years during the early Holocene. Ten dry events during the Holocene are associated with the weakening of the summer monsoon. These rapid climatic changes may be representative of a global climatic change pattern during the Holocene.     

近百年来岱海湖面变化的特点及对自然环境变化的指示意义

利用1881～1986年间岱海的水位资料,分别对近100a和近30a时段内湖面变化特点进行了分析,并将湖泊水量收支平衡与中亚有代表性的山地冰川物质平衡进行了对比。指出:中国北方东,西部环境变化受控于不同的气候变化模式,西部以内陆性气候下冷湿、暖干配置为特点;东部则以季风气候下冷干、暖湿配置为特点。两者的差异可清楚地反映在近100a时段的变化中。2种模式间的界线则随全新世以来季风气候范围的波动性萎缩而逐渐波动东移,现代季风气候与内陆气候的过渡带处于岱海和青海湖之间,为一易灾多灾的地带。     

Humid medieval warm period recorded by magnetic characteristics of sediments from Gonghai Lake,Shanxi, North China

Variations in monsoon strength, moisture or precipitation in eastern China during the MWP reflected by different climatic records have shown apparent discrepancies. Here, detailed environmental magnetic investigations and mineralogical analyses were conducted on lacustrine sediments of Core GH09B1 (2.8 m long) from Gonghai Lake, Shanxi, North China, concerning the monsoon history during the MWP. The results demonstrate that the main magnetic mineral is magnetite. The sediments with relatively high magnetic mineral concentrations were characterized by relatively fine magnetic grain sizes, which were formed in a period of relatively strong pedogenesis and high precipitation. In contrast, the sediments with low magnetic mineral concentrations reflected an opposite process. The variations of magnetic parameters in Gonghai Lake sediments were mainly controlled by the degree of pedogenesis in the lake drainage basin, which further indicated the strength of the Asian summer monsoon. The variations in the and S 300 parameters of the core clearly reveal the Asian summer monsoon history over the last 1200 years in the study area, suggesting generally abundant precipitation and a strong summer monsoon during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP, AD 910–1220), which is supported by pollen evidence. Furthermore, this 3–6-year resolution environmental magnetic record indicates a dry event around AD 980–1050, interrupting the generally humid MWP. The summer monsoon evolution over the last millennium recorded by magnetic parameters in sediments from Gonghai Lake correlates well with historical documentation (North China) and speleothem oxygen isotopes (Wanxiang Cave), as well as precipitation modeling results (extratropical East Asia), which all indicate a generally humid MWP within which centennial-scale moisture variability existed. It is thus demonstrated that environmental magnetic parameters could be used as an effective proxy for monsoon climate variations in high-resolution lacustrine sediments.     

Abrupt changes in the Asian southwest monsoon during the Holocene and their links to the North Atlantic Ocean

During the last ice age, the Indian Ocean southwest monsoon exhibited abrupt changes that were closely correlated with millennial-scale climate events in the North Atlantic region, suggesting a mechanistic link. In the Holocene epoch, which had a more stable climate, the amplitude of abrupt changes in North Atlantic climate was much smaller, and it has been unclear whether these changes are related to monsoon variability. Here we present a continuous record of centennial-scale monsoon variability throughout the Holocene from rapidly accumulating and minimally bioturbated sediments in the anoxic Arabian Sea. Our monsoon proxy record reveals several intervals of weak summer monsoon that coincide with cold periods documented in the North Atlantic region--including the most recent climate changes from the Medieval Warm Period to the Little Ice Age and then to the present. We therefore suggest that the link between North Atlantic climate and the Asian monsoon is a persistent aspect of global climate.     

Characteristics of decadal-centennial-scale changes in East Asian summer monsoon circulation and precipitation during the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age and in the present day

Using meteorological observations, proxies of precipitation and temperature, and climate simulation outputs, we synthetically analyzed the regularities of decadal-centennial-scale changes in the summer thermal contrast between land and ocean and summer precipitation over the East Asian monsoon region during the past millennium; compared the basic characteristics of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) circulation and precipitation in the present day, the Little Ice Age (LIA) and the Medieval Warm Period (MWP); and explored their links with solar irradiance and global climate change. The results indicate that over the last 150 years, the EASM circulation and precipitation, indicated by the temperature contrast between the East Asian mainland and adjacent oceans, had a significant decadal perturbation and have been weaker during the period of rapid global warming over the past 50 years. On the centennial time scale, the EASM in the MWP was strongest over the past 1000 years. Over the past 1000 years, the EASM was weakest in 1450-1570. When the EASM circulation was weaker, the monsoon rain belt over eastern China was generally located more southward, with there being less precipitation in North China and more precipitation in the Yangtze River valley; therefore, there was an anomalous pattern of southern flood/northern drought. From the 1900s to 1920s, precipitation had a pat- tern opposite to that of the southern flood/northern drought, with there being less precipitation in the Yangtze River valley and more precipitation in North China. Compared with the case for the MWP, there was a longer-time-scale southern flood/northern drought phenomenon in 1400-1600. Moreover, the EASM circulation and precipitation did not synchronously vary with the trend of global temperature. During the last 150 years, although the annual mean surface temperature around the world and in China has increased, the EASM circulation and precipitation did not have strengthening or weakening trends. Over the past 1000 years, the weakest EASM occurred ahead of the lowest Northern Hemispheric temperature and corresponded to the weakest solar irradiance.     

过去1 300年南海东岛生态环境对气候变化的响应

东岛牛塘为目前在西沙群岛少见的淡水型湖泊,其中保存完好的粪土沉积物记录了距今1 300年来东岛生态环境演化历史.对DY4粪土沉积柱的研究结果表明,在1 400 AD前,东岛海鸟数量较多,牛塘湖岸周围植被生长较为繁盛,而在1 400~1 850 AD期间,东岛海鸟数量和植被生长都处于低谷.通过综合对比研究区、中国乃至北半球降雨量、温度变化记录,发现1 400 AD前岛屿生物量较高的时期对应于暖干的中世纪温暖期,而低生物量时期与凉湿的小冰期一致,证明南海热带孤立岛屿生态系统对区域乃至全球气候环境变化响应非常灵敏.     

A comparison of the Medieval Warm Period, Little Ice Age and 20th century warming simulated by the FGOALS climate system model

To compare differences among the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), Little Ice Age (LIA), and 20th century global warming (20CW), six sets of transient and equilibrium simulations were generated using the climate system model FGOALS_gl. This model was developed by the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences. The results indicate that MWP warming is evident on a global scale, except for at mid-latitudes of the North Pacific. However, the magnitude of the warming is weaker than that in the 20th century. The warming in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere is stronger than that in the Southern Hemisphere. The LIA cooling is also evident on a global scale, with a strong cooling over the high Eurasian continent, while the cooling center is over the Arctic domain. Both the MWP and the 20CW experiments exhibit the strongest warming anomalies in the middle troposphere around 200?C300 hPa, but the cooling center of the LIA experiment is seen in the polar surface of the Northern Hemisphere. A comparison of model simulation against the reconstruction indicates that model??s performance in simulating the surface air temperature changes during the warm periods is better than that during the cold periods. The consistencies between model and reconstruction in lower latitudes are better than those in high latitudes. Comparison of the inter-annual variability mode of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) rainfall during the MWP, LIA and 20CW reveals a similar rainfall anomalies pattern. However, the time spectra of the principal component during the three typical periods of the last millennium are different, and the quasi-biannual oscillation is more evident during the two warm periods. At a centennial time scale, the external mode of the EASM variability driven by the changes of effective solar radiation is determined by the changes of large scale land-sea thermal contrast. The rainfall anomalies over the east of 110°E exhibit a meridional homogeneous change pattern, which is different from the meridional out-of-phase change of rainfall anomalies associated with the internal mode.