Statistic characteristics and weather significance of infrared TBB during May―August in Beijing and its vicinity

In order to meet the demand of nowcasting convective storms in Beijing, the climatological characteristics of convective storms in Beijing and its vicinity were analyzed based on the infrared （IR） temperature of black body （TBB） data during May--August of 1997--2004. The climatological probabilities, the diurnal cycle and the spatial distribution of convective storms are given respectively in this paper. The results show that the climatological characteristics of convective storms denoted by TBB≤-52℃ are consistent with those statistic studies based on the surface and lightning observations. Furthermore, the climatological characteristics of May and June are very different from those of July and August, showing that there are two types of convective storms in this region. One occurs in the transient polar air mass on the midlatitude continent during the late spring and early summer. This type of convection arises with thunder, strong wind gust and hail over the mountainous area in the northern part of this region from afternoon to nightfall, the other occurs with heavy rainfall in the warm and moist air mass over the North China Plain and vicinity of Bohai Sea. This study also shows that the long-term data of IR TBB observed by geostationary satellite can complement the temporal and spatial limitation of the weather radar and surface observations.     

2003年淮河流域持续暴雨的云系特征及环境条件

用常规观测资料、NCEP分析资料与GOES-9卫星云图资料对2003年6月21日—7月22日淮河流域持续暴雨的降水概况、云系特征及大尺度环境条件与水汽来源进行了分析。从降水特征来看,持续暴雨可以划分为3个阶段,降水主要集中在第一阶段（6月21日—7月2日）。从云系特征来看,淮河流域为稳定维持的大尺度梅雨锋云系,在梅雨锋云系上有多个中尺度对流系统活动,红外亮温频率统计表明亮温低于-52℃的强对流是导致淮河流域强降水的重要天气系统。对6月21日—7月22日时段的卫星云图进行普查发现影响淮河流域的中尺度对流系统（MCS）共有34个,其中10个α中尺度对流系统（M-αCS）和24个β中尺度对流系统（M-βCS）;大多数MCS在淮河流域及其邻近地区产生与消亡,并未发现直接来自青藏高原地区的MCS。从水汽来源来看,淮河流域对流层低层有3股水汽输送带,第1股气流为越赤道气流,水汽的输送作用最强;第2股气流来自南海地区,水汽的输送作用最弱;第3股气流来自菲律宾以东的热带太平洋地区。     

我国副热带地区夏季深对流活动气候分布特征

利用1996?2007年(无2004 年) 11 年 6?8 月具有较高时、空分辨率与很好时、空完整性的静止卫星红外亮温(TBB) 资料, 给出了我国副热带地区(94 °?124 °E, 24 °?36°N) 夏季的深对流活动气候分布特征。该地区夏季深对流活动存在 3 个活跃中心: 青藏高原东部的川西高原及云南北部部分区域, 云贵高原东北部的云南、贵州交界区域以及广西北部区域, 浙江、福建与江西大部区域。深对流活动与地势分布、东亚夏季风和大气环流密切相关,不同区域的深对流活动具有不同的月际和候际变化特征, 深对流活动具有显著的间歇性发展特征。江淮流域的候变化特征清楚地反映了该区域的梅雨期降水和二度梅降水。深对流活动 日变化演变表 明川西高原、云贵高原、浙闽地区等不同地区的深对流活动具有不同的传播特征。这种深对流活动的日变化传播特征与区域地势分布密切相关。我国副热带地区存在单峰型和双峰型两类 日变化特征深对流, 但不同地区同类型日变化深对流也具有不同的日变化特点。川西高原、云贵高原与浙闽地区深对流日变化都为单峰型, 但川西高原与云贵高原深对流 比浙闽地区持续活跃时间更长。四川盆地东部、江淮流域、湖南与广西区域都属于双峰型深对流活动区域, 但 四川盆地东部深对流活动主峰在 日出前( 22 UTC) , 不同于江淮流域、湖南与广西在 日落时段( 09?10 UTC) 的深对流活动主峰。     

Large-scale atmospheric singularities and summer long-cycle droughts-floods abrupt alternation in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River

The summer droughts and floods in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley (MLYRV) have often been one of the basic contents of the pre- cipitation forecasting during the flooding period in China. Lots of studies suggest that summer rainfa…     

Climatic significance of δ18O records from precipitation on the western Tibetan Plateau

Analysis of daily precipitation samples for stable oxygen isotopes （δ^18O） collected at the Shiquanhe and Gerze （Gaize, Gertse） stations in the Ngari （Ali） region on the western Tibetan Plateau indicates that air temperature affects the δ^18O variations in precipitation at these stations. In summer, Shiquanhe and Gerze show strongly similar trends in precipitation δ^18O, especially in simultaneous precipitation events. Moreover, both stations experienced low δ^18O values in precipitation during the active monsoon period, resulting from the southwest monsoon （the summer phase of the Indian monsoon）. However, during the break monsoon period （during the summer rainy season, when the monsoon circulation is disrupted）, δ^18O values in summer precipitation remain relatively high and local moisture recycling generally controls the moisture sources. Air temperature correlations with δ^18O strengthen during the non-monsoon period （January--June, and October--December） due to continental air masses and the westerlies. In addition, evaporation also influences the δ^18O variations in precipitation. The observed temporal and spatial variations of δ^18O in precipitation on the western Tibetan Plateau and adjacent regions show that the late May and early June-the late August and early September time frame provides an important period for the transportation of moisture from various sources on the Tibetan Plateau, and that the region of the West Kunlun-Tanggula Ranges acts as a significant climatic divide on the Plateau, perhaps for all of western China.     

Regional characteristics of the interdecadal turning of winter/summer climate modes in Chinese mainland

Tomé and Miranda’s climate trend turning discriminatory model is used to identify the spatial-temporal characteristics of the interdecadal turning of winter/summer climate modes at stations and in eight sub-areas over Chinese mainland based on the 1961–2000 observations. It is found that the stations with close occurrence years of the interdecadal trend turning (ITT) and coincident trends after the ITT exhibit a zonal distribution. A view is accordingly proposed that the interdecadal turnings of climate modes in China have remarkably regional structures. The research results show that after the early 1980s, winter climate over Chinese mainland overall trends towards a “warm-wet” mode, while summer climate had an abrupt change into “warm wet” mode in the late 1980s, suggesting that the time of the “warm-wet” mode turning for winter climate is earlier than that for summer climate. The regional characteristics and test results of the ITTs in eight sub-areas suggest that winter climate exhibits a distinctive “warm-dry” trend in North China after the late 1970s, and a slight “warm-dry” trend in Northeast China, South China, and Southwest China after the late 1980s. A “warm-wet” trend appears in the rest four sub-areas (the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the Huaihe River Valley, briefly Jianghuai, the east of the Tibetan plateau, and the east and west of Northwest China) after the early 1980s. The summer climate trends towards a “warm-dry” mode in Northeast China, North China and the east of Northwest China after the late 1980s, but a “warm-wet” mode appears in Southwest China and the east of the Tibetan plateau after the middle 1970s, as well as in Jianghuai and the west of Northwest China after the early 1980s. Specially, summer climate in South China started a “cold-wet” trend in 1984.     

Mechanism of α-Cr precipitation and crystallographic relationships between α-Cr and δ phases in Inconel 718 alloy after long-time thermal exposure

To study the precipitation mechanism of α-Cr phase in Inconel 718 alloy, the samples after long-time aging at 650 and 677℃ were examined by microstructural observations and chemical phase analysis methods. Combining the thermodynamics and kinetics calculation results, α-Cr always precipitates in the vicinity of δ phase, because δ phase rejects Cr into the γ-matrix when growing. The selected area diffraction patterns confirm that the crystallographic relationships of α-Cr with δ phase are (010)_δ//(1 10)_α-Cr and [100]_δ//[111]_α-Cr. A graphic model is also presented to show the crystallographic relation between α-Cr and δ phases.     

Statistic characteristics of severe convective storm during Warm-Season in the Beijing-Tianjin region and its vicinity

This study analyzed the climatological characteristics of severe convective storms in the Beijing and Tianjin region and its vicinity based on the Doppler radar data of Tanggu during May-August of 2003-2007. The climatological characteristics, e.g. storm area, volume, top height, max reflectivity, life time and motion, are analyzed. The results include： 75% of all storms in the Beijing-Tianjin region last no more than 30 minutes, and most storms have a volume less than 400 kin3; most storms move from southwest to northeast while the speed is between 10-30 km/h; the mean storm top height is about 6 km, but some strong convective storms can have a top height larger than 15 kin; finally, storm area and volume have a similar geographical distribution character showing increasing trends from west to east. Compared with the statistic results based on the conventional surface meteorological observations, the results based on the radar data can present not only 3D spatial statistic results of convective storms （e.g., volume and top height）, but also the quantitative climatological characteristics, such as the lifetime and speed distributions. These statistical results are useful for studying the climatic characteristics of convective storms in the Beijing-Tianjin region and its vicinity.     

关联规则及其在灾害天气预测中的应用

对空间关联规则的有关概念和主要挖掘方法进行了介绍,在此基础上,结合日本地球静止气象卫星(GMS)记录的红外辐射亮温资料和国家卫星气象中心高分辨率有限区域分析预报系统产品中的数值格点预报资料(HLAFS)值,运用空间关联规则挖掘技术对青藏高原上MCS东移与其环境场之间的关系进行了研究,得到了一些有意义的结论．     

基于CALIOP资料的中国及周边地区云出现概率时空分布特征分析

云垂直结构是影响大气辐射的重要参数,其时空分布是影响全球气候变化的关键组成部分.本文利用星载激光雷达CALIOP的1 km云层产品,计算了中国及周边地区（0-55°N,70-140°E）云的出现概率,对不同地区、不同季节、不同高度单层云的出现概率做了对比分析.结果表明：云的出现概率表现出明显的地区差异,蒙古高原和印度半岛北部少云,热带海域和中国南方多云,多数地区夜间云出现概率略高于白天;除蒙古高原和印度半岛北部以外,多数地区单层云比多层云更常见;多数地区高云占单层云的比例最大,而中国大陆南部单层的中云较常见,西太平洋北部海域常被单层的低云覆盖;夏秋两季云出现概率普遍大于春冬两季,尤其印度半岛北部的云主要出现在夏季;蒙古高原和印度半岛北部单层云少于多层云,冬季尤其明显,而中国西南地区东部全年单层云更常见;夏季单层的高云占全年单层云的比例最大,青藏高原部分地区超过35%,这与其地形特征和夏季对流活动旺盛有关.     

Diurnal variations of summer precipitation in Beijing

Climatic characteristics and secular trends of diurnal variations of summer precipitation in Beijing are studied using hourly self-recording rain-gauge data during 1961-2004. The results show that both rainfall amount and rainfall frequency present high values from late afternoon to early morning and reach the minima around noon. Two separate peaks can be identified in the high value period, one in the late afternoon and the other in the early morning. Taking the rainfall duration into account, it is found that the rainfall during late afternoon to midnight mainly comes from the short-duration rainfall events （an event of 1-6 hours in duration）, while the rainfall during midnight to early morning is accumulated mostly by the long-duration rainfall events （an event that lasts longer than 6 hours）. In the recent 40 years, the summer precipitation in Beijing has been considerably restructured. The total rainfall amount of short-duration events has increased significantly, while the total rainfall amount of Iong-duration events has decreased.     

Oxygen isotope variation in the water cycle of the Yamzho lake Basin in southern Tibetan Plateau

Given the potential use of stable isotope in the paleoclimate reconstruction from lacustrine records as well as in the local hydrology cycle, it is crucial to understand the processes of stable isotope evolution in catchment in the Tibetan Plateau region. Here we present a detailed study on the water oxygen isotope based on 2 years observation including precipitation, river water and lake water in the Yamzho Lake, south of the Tibetan Plateau. Temporal variation of local precipitation 5180 shows an apparent ＂monsoon cycle＂. In monsoon season, 5180 in waters is lower. In non-monsoon season, δ^18O in precipitation and lake water is higher and higher river δ^18O exists in spring, probably reflecting the effect of land surface evaporation, together with the higher δ^18O values in spring precipitation. It is also found that the surface lake water δ^18O varies seasonally and annually. The lower lake water δ^18O in the late summer is apparently related to the summer monsoon precipitation. The mean δ^18O value of lake water in 2007 is 1.2‰ higher than that in 2004, probably due to the less monsoon precipitation in summer of 2007, as can be confirmed from the precipitation data at the Langkazi meteorological data. It is also found that an obvious shift of vertical lake water δ^18O reflects the fast mixture of lake water. δ^18O values of lake water are over 10‰ higher than those of precipitation and river water in this region due to the evaporation fractionation. The modeled results show that the evaporation process of the lake water is sensitive to relative humidity, and the present lake water δ^18O reflects a relative humidity of 51% in the Yamzho Lake. It shows that the lake will take 30.5 years to reach present lake water δ^18O given a large shift in the input water δ^18O. The modeled results also reveal that surface lake water temperature and inflow δ^18O have slight effect on the isotopic balance process of lake water in the Yamzho Lake.     

影响MCSs移动的环境物理量场提取

已有研究表明,暴雨的形成常常与中尺度对流系统(MCSs)的移动息息相关,而引起中尺度对流系统移动的成因十分复杂.该文利用日本地球静止气象卫星(GMS)记录的红外辐射亮温资料对1998年6-8月青藏高原上的MCSs进行了自动追踪。在此基础上,运用空间数据挖掘中的决策树方法建立了移出高原的MCSs与其环境物理量场之间的关系,结果表明,利用该法来预测MCSs未来的移动路径是切实可行的。     

青藏高原上中尺度对流系统东移的热力场特征

利用国家气象中心高分辨率有限区域分析预报系统产品(HLAFS)中的数值格点预报资料,运用空间数据挖掘中的聚类方法 (K 均值法和CLARANS法),对影响1998年夏季青藏高原上中尺度对流系统（MCSs）东移的热力场的空间分布特征进行了研究,得到了有利于MCSs移动和传播的热力学条件.结果表明,MCSs周边热力场中的温度场、湿度场以及水汽通量散度场空间分布特征的变化可以为MCSs发展和演变的预测提供重要线索,从而为探讨高原上MCSs的移动规律,揭示其发生和发展的机理提供了一种有效的新途径.     

Modeling impacts of East Asian Ocean-Land thermal contrast on spring southwesterly winds and rainfall in eastern China

Using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research （NCEP–NCAR） reanalysis dataset, the NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center’s merged analysis of precipitation, and the MM5v3 Meso-scale Model, the impacts of surface temperature differences between the East Asian land and its adjacent oceans on spring southwesterly winds and rainfall over eastern China are studied. The modeling results show that the temperature differences exert strong influence on the occurrence of the southwesterly winds and rainfall over southern China and their northward advances. When surface temperature increases over the land and decreases over the oceans, the temperature gradient with a winter feature earlier changes toward the gradient with a summer feature. Both the low-pressure system east of the Tibetan Plateau and the subtropical high-pressure system over the western Pacific strengthen, accompanying with the strengthening of the lower-tropospheric southwesterly winds over eastern China. Accordingly, the upward motion increases over the Yangtze-Huaihe River （YHR） valleys and decreases over southern China, leading to an increase of spring rainfall over the YHR valleys and a decrease over southern China. Thus, the rain belt over eastern China appears over the YHR valleys but not over southern China. Under a weaker condition of the spring thermal contrast, the rain belt does not occur over eastern China. When the spring thermal contrast pronouncedly strengthens, the rain belt over southern China may advance northward into the YHR valleys during spring, though there is no onset of the tropical monsoon over the South China Sea. This forms a rain belt similar to that of the YHR valleys during the summer Meiyu period.     

New evidence for effects of land cover in China on summer climate

The effects of land cover in different regions of China on summer climate are studied by lagged correlation analysis using NOAA/AVHRR normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data for the period of 1981-1994 and temperature,precipitation data of 160 meteorological stations in China,The results show that the correlation coeffi-cients between NDVI in previous season and summer precipitation are positive in most regions of China,and the lagged correlations show a significant difference between regions.The stronger correlations between NDVI in previous winter and precipitation in summer occur in Central Chian and the Tibetan Plateau,and the correlations between spring NDVI and summer precipitation in the eastern arid/semiarid region and the Tibetan Plateau are more significant .Vegetation changes have more sensitive feedback effects on climate in the three regions (eastern arid /semi-arid region,Central China and Tibetan Plateau),The lagged correlations between NDVI and precipitation suggest that,on interannual time scales,land cover affects summer precipitation to a certain extent,The correlations between NDVI in previous season and summer temperature show more comlex ,and the lagged responses of temperature to vegetation are weaker compared with precipitation .and they are possibly related to the global warming which partly cover up the correlations.     

Summertime Subtropical Countercurrent on isopycnals in the western North Pacific

Circulations on isopycnals (σrθ) in the western North Pacific were investigated by using P-vector method;the data were taken from the U.S. Navy's climatological temperature and salinity dataset (public domain) with 1/2°×1/2° resolution. Results not only show the main circulation systems on isopycnals in the western North Pacific such as the North Equatorial Current (NEC), Kuroshio and Kuroshio Countercurrent, but also reveal the Subtropical Countercurrent (STCC) clearly. In this note we pay attention to discussing the distribution of STCC in summer (in June).The STCC flows eastward along a winding road; on shallow isopycnals, the STCC originates from the area east of Bashi Strait at about 122.5°E; with the isopycnals increasing, the origin and flow core of STCC move to north and east, but the main part of STCC is still between 18° and 23.5°N, i.e.near the Tropic of Cancer. There exists STCC on all isopycnals between the sea surface and 25.8 σθThe current vectors of STCC on isopycnais are shown for the first time, and the distribution of the potential vorticity indicates that STCC is just overlying the southern boundary of the Subtropical Mode Water (STMW).``     

A physically-based statistical forecast model for the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley summer rainfall

A new approach to forecast the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley summer rainfall in June-August （JJA） is proposed in this paper. The year-to-year increment of the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley is forecasted and hence the summer precipitation could be predicted. In this paper, DY is defined as the difference of a variable between the current year and the preceding year （year-to-year increment）. YR denotes the seasonal mean precipitation rate of the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley summer rainfall. After analyzing the atmospheric circulation anomalies in winter and spring that were associated with the DY of YR, six key predictors for the DY of YR have been identified. Then the forecast model for the DY of YR is established by using the multi-linear regression method. The predictors for the DY of YR are Antarctic Oscillation, the meridional wind shear between 850hPa and 200hPa over the Indo-Australian region, and so on. The prediction model shows a high skill for the hindcast during 1997-2006, with the average relative root mean square error is at 18%. The model can even reproduce the upward and downward trends of YR during 1984--1998 and 1998--2006. Considering that the current operational forecast models of the summer precipitation over the China region have the average forecast scores at 60%--70% and that the prediction skill for the middle-lower reaches of Yangtze River Valley summer precipitation remains quite limited up to now, thus this new approach to predict the year-to-year increment of the summer precipitation over the Yangtze River Valley （and hence the summer precipitation itself） has the potential to significantly increase the operational forecast skill of the summer precipitation.     

华北夏季降水年代际变化与东亚夏季风、大气环流异常

利用华北夏季降水资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,对华北夏季降水、东亚夏季风年代际变化特征及大气环流异常进行研究,发现一些有意义的结果:华北夏季降水变化存在明显的8a、18a周期,东亚夏季风变化18a、28a周期性比较明显,二者年代际变化特征明显,但华北夏季降水变化和东亚夏季风变化的周期不完全一致.华北夏季降水量变化在60年代中期发生了突变,东亚夏季风变化在70年代中期发生了突变.华北夏季降水与东亚夏季风变化存在很好的相关关系,强夏季风年,华北夏季降水一般偏多,弱夏季风年,华北夏季降水一般偏少,但又不完全一致.东亚夏季风减弱是造成华北夏季降水减少的一个重要因素,但不是唯一因素,华北夏季降水减少还与环流异常密切相关.在地面上,青臧高原地区、华北地区气温下降造成华北低压系统活动减少,不利于降水.在850 hPa层上,东亚中纬度的西南季风和副热带高压南部的偏东风、西北部的西南风异常减弱,使得西南气流输送水汽很多难以到达30°N以北的地区,而副热带高压西部外围偏东南、偏南气流输送到华北地区的水汽也大量减少,水汽不足造成华北夏季降水偏少.在500 hPa高度场上,80年代欧亚遥相关型表现与50年代相反,变为欧洲( )、乌拉尔山(-)、中亚( )形势,这种环流使得乌拉尔山高压脊减弱,贝加尔湖至青藏高原高空槽变浅,纬向环流表现突出,不利于冷暖空气南北交换.同时在500 hPa气温场上,80年代,西伯利亚至青藏高原西北部的冷槽明显东移南压到蒙古至华北地区,锋区位于华北以东以南位置,使得华北地区冷暖空气交汇减少,降水也因此减少.华北夏季降水减少是由于东亚夏季风减弱和大气环流异常造成的.     

A note on characteristic generators of a free cyclic code and its dual

Let C be a free cyclic code over Z _n ^α and dim _p C = k. In the paper, we prove that if the k characteristic generators of C are p-linearly independent then the corresponding nα − k characteristic generators of C ^⊥ are p-linearly independent. We then show that to any trellis that can be constructed from k p-linearly independent characteristic generators of C, there exists a trellis for C ^⊥ with the same state-complexity profile, which generalizes the conjecture of Koetter and Vardy to a free cyclic code over Z _n ^α. Foundation item: Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(60673071)