Characteristics of recent temperate glacier fluctuations in the Parlung Zangbo River basin,southeast Tibetan Plateau

Little is known about recent variation of temperate glaciers on the Tibetan Plateau, although they are of particular theoretical and practical interests in terms of climate change and water supply. The study of glacier mass balance and terminus variation for six temperate glaciers in the Parlung Zangbo River basin, southeast Tibetan Plateau, shows the facts of the overall negative mass balance and the continued terminus retreat from 2005/2006 to 2007/2008. The mass balances of smaller glaciers were more negative compared to larger glaciers. Referring the trend of glacier mass balance in the Hengduan Mountains, the Himalayas and glacier shrinkage in southeast Tibetan Plateau, the mass loss and recession of temperate glacier in this region are expected if the current climate condition continues.     

Holocene Southern Ocean surface temperature variability west of the Antarctic Peninsula

The disintegration of ice shelves, reduced sea-ice and glacier extent, and shifting ecological zones observed around Antarctica highlight the impact of recent atmospheric and oceanic warming on the cryosphere. Observations and models suggest that oceanic and atmospheric temperature variations at Antarctica's margins affect global cryosphere stability, ocean circulation, sea levels and carbon cycling. In particular, recent climate changes on the Antarctic Peninsula have been dramatic, yet the Holocene climate variability of this region is largely unknown, limiting our ability to evaluate ongoing changes within the context of historical variability and underlying forcing mechanisms. Here we show that surface ocean temperatures at the continental margin of the western Antarctic Peninsula cooled by 3-4 °C over the past 12,000 years, tracking the Holocene decline of local (65° S) spring insolation. Our results, based on TEX(86) sea surface temperature (SST) proxy evidence from a marine sediment core, indicate the importance of regional summer duration as a driver of Antarctic seasonal sea-ice fluctuations. On millennial timescales, abrupt SST fluctuations of 2-4 °C coincide with globally recognized climate variability. Similarities between our SSTs, Southern Hemisphere westerly wind reconstructions and El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation variability indicate that present climate teleconnections between the tropical Pacific Ocean and the western Antarctic Peninsula strengthened late in the Holocene epoch. We conclude that during the Holocene, Southern Ocean temperatures at the western Antarctic Peninsula margin were tied to changes in the position of the westerlies, which have a critical role in global carbon cycling.     

Glacier variations and climate warming and drying in the central Himalayas

Repeat measurements of glacier terminus positions show that glaciers in the central Himalayas have been in a continuous retreat situation in the past decades. The average retreat rate is 5.5-8.7 m/a in Mt. Qomolangma(Everest) since the 1960s and 6.4 m/a in Mt. Xixiabangma since the 1980s. In recent years, the retreat rate is increasing.Ice core studies revealed that the accumulation rate of glaciers has a fluctuating decrease trend in the last century with a rapid decrease in the 1960s and a relatively steady low value afterwards. Meteorological station record indicates that the annual mean temperature has a slow increase trend but summer temperature had a larger increase in the past 30 a. All these suggest that the glacier retreat results from precipitation decrease in combination with temperature increase,and hence glacier shrinkage in this region will speed up if the climatic warming and drying continues.     

New ages for human occupation and climatic change at Lake Mungo,Australia

Australia's oldest human remains, found at Lake Mungo, include the world's oldest ritual ochre burial (Mungo III) and the first recorded cremation (Mungo I). Until now, the importance of these finds has been constrained by limited chronologies and palaeoenvironmental information. Mungo III, the source of the world's oldest human mitochondrial DNA, has been variously estimated at 30 thousand years (kyr) old, 42-45 kyr old and 62 +/- 6 kyr old, while radiocarbon estimates placed the Mungo I cremation near 20-26 kyr ago. Here we report a new series of 25 optical ages showing that both burials occurred at 40 +/- 2 kyr ago and that humans were present at Lake Mungo by 50-46 kyr ago, synchronously with, or soon after, initial occupation of northern and western Australia. Stratigraphic evidence indicates fluctuations between lake-full and drier conditions from 50 to 40 kyr ago, simultaneously with increased dust deposition, human arrival and continent-wide extinction of the megafauna. This was followed by sustained aridity between 40 and 30 kyr ago. This new chronology corrects previous estimates for human burials at this important site and provides a new picture of Homo sapiens adapting to deteriorating climate in the world's driest inhabited continent.     

Numerical simulation of Urumqi Glacier No. 1 in the eastern Tianshan, central Asia from 2005 to 2070

Due to climate changes, most of the alpine glaciers have retreated dramatically during the past decades. Thus it is significant to predict the alpine glacier variability in the future for a better understanding of the impact of climate changes on water resource. In this paper, we perform the numerical simulation on Urumqi Glacier No.1 in the eastern Tianshan, central Asia (hereafter Glacier No.1 for short) by considering both the mass balance and ice flow. Given the shape of the Glacier No.1, the velocity of the glacier is obtained by solving a two-dimensional nonlinear Stokes equation and simulated result is in agreement with the observation. In order to predict the variability of Glacier No.1 in the next decades, a climatic scenario is constructed with a temperature rise rate as 0.17°C/10 a and precipitation as constant during the period of 2005-2070. The simulation shows that, the glacier terminus will retreat slowly and the glacier will thin dramatically before 2040, while after year 2040, the glacier terminus retreat will accelerate. This study confirms the increasing retreat rate of alpine glaciers under global warming.     

Quick ice mass loss and abrupt retreat of the maritime glaciers in the Kangri Karpo Mountains,southeast Tibetan Plateau

The maritime glaciers are sensitive to climate change because of high annual precipitation and high air temperature in the region. A combined comprehensive study was carried out based on glacier mass balance observation, GPS-based glacier terminus position survey, glacier Ground Penetrating Radar, topography maps and RS satellite images in the Kangri Karpo Mountains, Southeast Tibet. The study revealed a strong ice mass loss and quick glacier retreat since the 1970s. Ata Glacier, one glacier from the south slope of the Kangri Karpo Mountains, has formed a 6-km-long terminal moraine zone at the end of the glacier since the 1970s, and the accelerating retreat is largely due to the strong glacier surface melting. Mass balance study on the other four glaciers on the northern side of the Kangri Karpo Mountains shows that they are in large negative mass balance and the glaciers had retreated 15--19 m from May 2006 to May 2007. The in-situ glacier observation also shows that the glacier retreat is more obvious in small glaciers. The enhanced ice mass deficit caused by climate warming and the ongoing extinction of many small glaciers in this region could seriously affect the water resources, environ- ments, local climate and regional sustainable development in the near future.     

Late Holocene methane rise caused by orbitally controlled increase in tropical sources

Considerable debate surrounds the source of the apparently 'anomalous' increase of atmospheric methane concentrations since the mid-Holocene (5,000?years ago) compared to previous interglacial periods as recorded in polar ice core records. Proposed mechanisms for the rise in methane concentrations relate either to methane emissions from anthropogenic early rice cultivation or an increase in natural wetland emissions from tropical or boreal sources. Here we show that our climate and wetland simulations of the global methane cycle over the last glacial cycle (the past 130,000?years) recreate the ice core record and capture the late Holocene increase in methane concentrations. Our analyses indicate that the late Holocene increase results from natural changes in the Earth's orbital configuration, with enhanced emissions in the Southern Hemisphere tropics linked to precession-induced modification of seasonal precipitation. Critically, our simulations capture the declining trend in methane concentrations at the end of the last interglacial period (115,000-130,000?years ago) that was used to diagnose the Holocene methane rise as unique. The difference between the two time periods results from differences in the size and rate of regional insolation changes and the lack of glacial inception in the Holocene. Our findings also suggest that no early agricultural sources are required to account for the increase in methane concentrations in the 5,000?years before the industrial era.     

末次冰盛期青藏高原冰川变化对亚洲气候的影响

以末次冰盛期(约2.6~1.9万年前)的气候为背景, 利用大气模式CAM4耦合陆面模式CLM4, 对青藏高原冰川规模扩大对气候产生的影响进行研究。结果表明, 末次冰盛期青藏高原冰川对北半球夏季的气候影响较显著, 除在冰川分布区引起显著的降温外, 通过遥相关作用, 还使得白令海峡附近显著升温。另外, 冰川产生的扰动会显著地增强南亚夏季风, 增加南亚地区降水。对比末次冰盛期与工业革命前时期不同气候态下青藏高原冰川规模扩大对气候的影响, 发现工业革命前时期的影响显著小于末次冰盛期, 说明青藏高原冰川对气候的影响与背景气候态有关。     

Mass change study on Arctic glacier Pedersenbreen, during 1936–1990–2009

Pedersenbreen is a small polythermal valley glacier, located in Svalbard, which has been one of the two glaciers monitored by Chinese Arctic expedition members since 2004. This study estimates its area and volume and analyzes its change during 1936-1990-2009, using field collected GPS/GPR data in 2009 and historical topographic maps published by the Norwegian Polar Institute. We have found that Pedersenbreen is just like many other valley glaciers in Svalbard, having experienced a significant recession since the end of Little Ice Age in the early 20th century. The glacier tongue has retreated more than 0.6 km, while ice volume has decreased by approximately 13%. The overall thinning rate of Pedersenbreen has shown acceleration during the recent decades. Further analysis shows that the ice tongue in the downstream area of Pedersenbreen is melting at the highest rate, while a simultaneous accumulation occurred in the upstream. However, as global temperatures increase, the accumulation area is reducing year by year.     

High-latitude influence on the eastern equatorial Pacific climate in the early Pleistocene epoch

Many records of tropical sea surface temperature and marine productivity exhibit cycles of 23 kyr (orbital precession) and 100 kyr during the past 0.5 Myr (refs 1-5), whereas high-latitude sea surface temperature records display much more pronounced obliquity cycles at a period of about 41 kyr (ref. 6). Little is known, however, about tropical climate variability before the mid-Pleistocene transition about 900 kyr ago, which marks the change from a climate dominated by 41-kyr cycles (when ice-age cycles and high-latitude sea surface temperature variations were dictated by changes in the Earth's obliquity) to the more recent 100-kyr cycles of ice ages. Here we analyse alkenones from marine sediments in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean to reconstruct sea surface temperatures and marine productivity over the past 1.8 Myr. We find that both records are dominated by the 41-kyr obliquity cycles between 1.8 and 1.2 Myr ago, with a relatively small contribution from orbital precession, and that early Pleistocene sea surface temperatures varied in the opposite sense to local annual insolation in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. We conclude that during the early Pleistocene epoch, climate variability at our study site must have been determined by high-latitude processes that were driven by orbital obliquity forcing.     

Estimation on the response of glaciers in China to the global warming in the 21st century

Glaciers in China can be categorized into 3 types, i.e. the maritime (temperate) type, sub-continental (sub-polar) type and extreme Continental (polar) type, which take 22%, 46% and 32% of the total existing glacier area (59 406 km2) respectively. Researches indicate that glaciers of the three types show different response patterns to the global warming. Since the Maxima of the Little Ice Age (the 17th century), air temperature has risen at a magnitude of 1.3℃on average and the glacier area decreased corresponds to 20% of the present total glacier area in western China. it is estimated that air temperature rise in the 2030s, 2070s and 2100s will be of the order of 0.4-1.2, 1.2-2.7 and 2.1-4.0 K in western China. With these scenarios, glaciers in China will suffer from further shrinkage by 12%, 28% and 45% by the 2030s, 2070s and 2100s. The uncertainties may account for 30%-67% in 2100 in China.     

Contrasting patterns of early twenty-first-century glacier mass change in the Himalayas

Glaciers are among the best indicators of terrestrial climate variability, contribute importantly to water resources in many mountainous regions and are a major contributor to global sea level rise. In the Hindu Kush-Karakoram-Himalaya region (HKKH), a paucity of appropriate glacier data has prevented a comprehensive assessment of current regional mass balance. There is, however, indirect evidence of a complex pattern of glacial responses in reaction to heterogeneous climate change signals. Here we use satellite laser altimetry and a global elevation model to show widespread glacier wastage in the eastern, central and south-western parts of the HKKH during 2003-08. Maximal regional thinning rates were 0.66?±?0.09 metres per year in the Jammu-Kashmir region. Conversely, in the Karakoram, glaciers thinned only slightly by a few centimetres per year. Contrary to expectations, regionally averaged thinning rates under debris-mantled ice were similar to those of clean ice despite insulation by debris covers. The 2003-08 specific mass balance for our entire HKKH study region was -0.21?±?0.05?m?yr(-1) water equivalent, significantly less negative than the estimated global average for glaciers and ice caps. This difference is mainly an effect of the balanced glacier mass budget in the Karakoram. The HKKH sea level contribution amounts to one per cent of the present-day sea level rise. Our 2003-08 mass budget of -12.8?±?3.5 gigatonnes (Gt) per year is more negative than recent satellite-gravimetry-based estimates of -5?±?3?Gt?yr(-1) over 2003-10 (ref. 12). For the mountain catchments of the Indus and Ganges basins, the glacier imbalance contributed about 3.5% and about 2.0%, respectively, to the annual average river discharge, and up to 10% for the Upper Indus basin.     

Carbonate verse silicate Sr isotope in lake sediments and its response to Little Ice Age

The ^87Sr/^86Sr ratios of silicate (acid-insoluble,AI,) and carbonate (acid-soluble,AS) of the lake sediments from the Daihai Lake ,Inner Mongolia since the last 500 years are measured respectively ,indicationg that chemical weathering of silicate minerals was in an early stage since the Little Ice Age within the Daihai watershed by combination with mineral constitute,Rb/Sr ratio and CaCO3 content in the sediments,During the Little Ice Age maximum,an evident peak in the ^87 Sr/^86Sr ratios of both silicate and carbonate in sediments suggests that a cold climate condition is unfavorable to dissolving radiogenic stontium from silcate minerals ,Meanwhile,the variation of ^87 Sr/^86Sr ratios of silicate and carbonate also reflects a projected warming climate favorable to intensifying chemical weathering after the Little Ice Age ,Consequently,the ^87 Sr/^86Sr ratio of both silicate and carbonate in inland lake sediment can be used as an effective proxy of the past climate in single watershed.     

Abrupt changes in the Asian southwest monsoon during the Holocene and their links to the North Atlantic Ocean

During the last ice age, the Indian Ocean southwest monsoon exhibited abrupt changes that were closely correlated with millennial-scale climate events in the North Atlantic region, suggesting a mechanistic link. In the Holocene epoch, which had a more stable climate, the amplitude of abrupt changes in North Atlantic climate was much smaller, and it has been unclear whether these changes are related to monsoon variability. Here we present a continuous record of centennial-scale monsoon variability throughout the Holocene from rapidly accumulating and minimally bioturbated sediments in the anoxic Arabian Sea. Our monsoon proxy record reveals several intervals of weak summer monsoon that coincide with cold periods documented in the North Atlantic region--including the most recent climate changes from the Medieval Warm Period to the Little Ice Age and then to the present. We therefore suggest that the link between North Atlantic climate and the Asian monsoon is a persistent aspect of global climate.     

Regional climate shifts caused by gradual global cooling in the Pliocene epoch

The Earth's climate has undergone a global transition over the past four million years, from warm conditions with global surface temperatures about 3 degrees C warmer than today, smaller ice sheets and higher sea levels to the current cooler conditions. Tectonic changes and their influence on ocean heat transport have been suggested as forcing factors for that transition, including the onset of significant Northern Hemisphere glaciation approximately 2.75 million years ago, but the ultimate causes for the climatic changes are still under debate. Here we compare climate records from high latitudes, subtropical regions and the tropics, indicating that the onset of large glacial/interglacial cycles did not coincide with a specific climate reorganization event at lower latitudes. The regional differences in the timing of cooling imply that global cooling was a gradual process, rather than the response to a single threshold or episodic event as previously suggested. We also find that high-latitude climate sensitivity to variations in solar heating increased gradually, culminating after cool tropical and subtropical upwelling conditions were established two million years ago. Our results suggest that mean low-latitude climate conditions can significantly influence global climate feedbacks.     

帕隆藏布流域（波密-然乌段）冰川动态变化遥感分析

帕隆藏布流域位于中国海洋性冰川最为发育的藏东南地区,近年来随着全球温室效应加剧,帕隆藏布流域冰川变化极为显著。采用多期遥感影像,对1994～2015年间帕隆藏布流域波密至然乌段的冰川变化趋势、原因及其影响进行研究。结果表明:(1)20余年间冰川总面积减少了451. 72 km2,各冰川每年大约退缩2. 48%～2. 95%,气温升高以及降雨量减少是导致冰川面积持续退缩的主要原因。(2)由于帕隆藏布江南岸山坡所接收的太阳辐射热量更少,但降水却更加充沛,使得帕隆藏布江南岸冰川分布面积及覆盖率远大于北岸,而冰川退缩速率远小于北岸。(3)冰川的不断退缩使得沟道上游大量冻融松散物源在冰雪融水的外动力条件下,进入沟道形成松散堆积物源,导致流域内大规模发育冰川泥石流。由于帕隆藏布江南岸冰川规模更大,导致帕隆藏布江南岸冰川泥石流更为发育。(4)冰川变化动态监测对冰川泥石流机理分析以及预警研究工作有着重要的参考指导价值。     

Early onset and tropical forcing of 100,000-year Pleistocene glacial cycles

Between 1.5 and 0.6 Myr ago, the period of the Earth's glacial cycles changed from 41 kyr, the period of the Earth's obliquity cycles, to 100 kyr, the period of the Earth's orbital eccentricity, which has a much smaller effect on global insolation. The timing of this transition and its causes pose one of the most perplexing problems in palaeoclimate research. Here we use complex demodulation to examine the phase evolution of precession and semiprecession cycles--the latter of which are phase-coupled to both precession and eccentricity--in the tropical and extratropical Atlantic Ocean. We find that about 1.5 Myr ago, tropical semiprecession cycles (with periods of about 11.5 kyr) started to propagate to higher latitudes, coincident with a growing amplitude envelope of the 100-kyr cycles. Evidence from numerical models suggests that cycles of about 10 kyr in length may be required to explain the high amplitude of the 100-kyr cycles. Combining our results with consideration of a modern analogue, we conclude that increased heat flow across the equator or from the tropics to higher latitudes around 1.5 Myr ago strengthened the semiprecession cycle in the Northern Hemisphere, and triggered the transition to sustained 100-kyr glacial cycles.     

Millennial-scale storminess variability in the northeastern United States during the Holocene epoch

For the purpose of detecting the effects of human activities on climate change, it is important to document natural change in past climate. In this context, it has proved particularly difficult to study the variability in the occurrence of extreme climate events, such as storms with exceptional rainfall. Previous investigations have established storm chronologies using sediment cores from single lakes, but such studies can be susceptible to local environmental bias. Here we date terrigenous inwash layers in cores from 13 lakes, which show that the frequency of storm-related floods in the northeastern United States has varied in regular cycles during the past 13,000 years (13 kyr), with a characteristic period of about 3 kyr. Our data show four peaks in storminess during the past 14 kyr, approximately 2.6, 5.8, 9.1 and 11.9 kyr ago. This pattern is consistent with long-term changes in the average sign of the Arctic Oscillation, suggesting that modulation of this dominant atmospheric mode may account for a significant fraction of Holocene climate variability in North America and Europe.     

海螺沟冰川成因浅析

贡嘎山地区发育有71条冰川,其中长5公里以上的有五条,海螺沟冰川是其规模最大海拔最低的一条。根据冰川的分布、形状和规模,它属山岳冰川类型,从成因上看,则属暧型动力变质冰川。 海螺沟冰川形成于16万年前,地处青藏高原东缘。冰川在纵向上,粒雪盆高置、冰舌低伸,其间,为特有高悬的大冰瀑布相联。冰川的形成与存在,主要与挽近时期的造山运动有关,并与有利的贡嘎山南北向构造山系地质背景、区域自然地理环境、南面的南北向横断山系及南部海域东南季风影响相联系。海螺沟冰川现处于强消融退缩时期,这与区域性气候以几十年期的振荡变化有关,与“温室效应”无关。冰川景观不会因目前的退缩而在可以预见的时期消失。     

Inference of human population history from individual whole-genome sequences

The history of human population size is important for understanding human evolution. Various studies have found evidence for a founder event (bottleneck) in East Asian and European populations, associated with the human dispersal out-of-Africa event around 60 thousand years (kyr) ago. However, these studies have had to assume simplified demographic models with few parameters, and they do not provide a precise date for the start and stop times of the bottleneck. Here, with fewer assumptions on population size changes, we present a more detailed history of human population sizes between approximately ten thousand and a million years ago, using the pairwise sequentially Markovian coalescent model applied to the complete diploid genome sequences of a Chinese male (YH), a Korean male (SJK), three European individuals (J. C. Venter, NA12891 and NA12878 (ref. 9)) and two Yoruba males (NA18507 (ref. 10) and NA19239). We infer that European and Chinese populations had very similar population-size histories before 10-20?kyr ago. Both populations experienced a severe bottleneck 10-60?kyr ago, whereas African populations experienced a milder bottleneck from which they recovered earlier. All three populations have an elevated effective population size between 60 and 250?kyr ago, possibly due to population substructure. We also infer that the differentiation of genetically modern humans may have started as early as 100-120?kyr ago, but considerable genetic exchanges may still have occurred until 20-40?kyr ago.