产业集群的核结构与指标体系

产业集群是由产业间关联、机构间关系耦合而成的网络,是研究区域竞争力、增长和创新扩散的重要领域.集群构成要素间的关系结构是产业集群研究的关键内容,但这一领域的研究成果,特别是定量研究成果较少.本文依据产业网络理论,从产品关联层面将产业集群描述为产业部门之间的关系网络,并以此为基础定义了产业集群中的一类特殊结构——产业集群的核结构,提出了产业集群的核结构的定量指标体系,主要包括聚集系数、辐射系数和中心性系数等.计算实例表明,这一指标体系能够描述不同区域的集群结构特点,反映区域间竞争力差异,是一类利用集群结构解释竞争力的有效方法.     

关键部门判别的部门弹性法

根据投入产出表中对增加值系数的描述,提出了四种增加值弹性指标来判定关键部门,弹性指标考虑部门规模,更具有可比性,且用最终使用变动影响的GDP及劳动者报酬、税收、营业盈余变动比率来测度部门重要性,使关键部门判别与国民经济GDP指标更好地结合起来,更具有政策意义.在此基础上,用此法对1997年中国做了实证分析,给出1997年关键部门的判定结果.     

基于非线性Granger因果检验的中国大陆和世界其他主要股票市场之间的信息溢出

采用线性及非线性Granger因果检验的方法,对中国大陆股票市场和世界其他主要股票市场之间不同阶段的信息溢出现象进行了实证研究.通过比较Granger (1969)线性因果检验和 Hiemstra and Jones(1994)非线性因果检验, 发现中国大陆市场和世界其他主要股票市场之间存在非线性信息溢出效应;随着中国大陆市场改革的深入和全球经济一体化的发展,信息溢出的程度也在提升; 在建立风险预警机制时,需要充分考虑其他市场的信息.     

产业结构演变对工业和服务业就业的影响——基于58个国家的实证检验

基于面板平滑转移模型,本文采用58个国家面板数据,通过全局最优的模拟退火法(SA)和非线性最小二乘法回归,实证分析产业结构变化对工业和服务业就业的影响.研究发现:城镇化是实现产业结构工业就业效应的有效机制,城镇化通过第二产业发展和产业集聚促使劳动力由农业转向工业;企业规模是产业结构变化推动服务业就业的有效内在机制,企业生产扩张和竞争力提高使服务业就业得到优化配置.第二产业对工业就业,第三产业对服务业就业均有正向促进作用,但产业间的总体就业溢出效应为负向;产业结构调整引起的就业弹性较小,就业结构并不能跟随产业结构演变而发生质变.此外,发达国家的产业间就业溢出为负,表明在产业结构的成熟阶段,第二产业与第三产业发展存在一定的替代效应;而发展中国家的产业间就业溢出为正,表明还处于产业结构的调整阶段,拥有剩余的人力资源,可以实现工业和服务业就业"齐头并进".     

计算实验金融的思想基础与研究范式

计算实验金融作为实验经济学的发展和补充已经有了二十多年的发展,虽然其研究方法已经逐渐成熟,但是关于其思想基础和研究范式目前还存在一定的争议和挑战. 本文从金融研究需求的视角讨论了计算实验金融的起源与发展,对常见的计算实验金融模型的建模方法与类型进行了评述与总结,进而对目前比较典型的一些挑战性问题进行了讨论,从中展现出计算实验金融的思想基础和研究范式,并重点讨论了其相对于传统研究方法在金融市场异象、市场微观结构、行为金融学、以及交易机制设计等研究领域的优势.     

Management of Waste Electrical and Electronic Equipment in Brazilian Public Education Institutions: Implementation Through Action Research on a University Campus

One of the problems facing public education institutions in Brazil is the question of the correct handling and treatment of waste electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE). Being that these institutions are part of the public sector, they should adhere to Decree no. 99,658/1990 for the disposal of their goods. However, this decree is not completely in accordance with the Brazilian National Solid Waste Policy (PNRS), especially when considering the regulations for disposal of public goods. Thus, these institutions have no WEEE management model which encompasses not only the Decree but also the PNRS. An example of this situation can be found at the Federal University of Itajubá (UNIFEI) in Minas Gerais, Brazil. Due to the lack of such a management model, the university warehouse is at full capacity and unable to receive additional electronic equipment. Therefore, the objective of this study is to create a management model for WEEE to be used at public education institutions using the guidelines set forth in both the Decree and the PNRS. An action research investigation was performed at UNIFEI which relied upon two improvement and learning cycles to deal with all the WEEE found at the university. The first was undertaken at the university warehouse and the second at other sectors within the institution. In addition to the practical results obtained by properly disposing of 474 WEEE products, this study showed that action research is an adequate management tool for public institutions looking to deal with problems of this nature, being that these institutions are almost always subject to bureaucratic controls with respect to their public property, and expected to follow rigorous legislation that is often times controversial.     

系统重要性股权质押上市公司的识别——股权质押违约的系统性风险贡献度视角

股权质押风险一旦爆发呈联动效应，影响范围将迅速波及多个市场，极有可能衍生出系统性风险，对整个金融市场和实体经济带来极大危害。本文围绕股权质押违约风险在股票市场和基金市场传染的核心问题，借鉴网络科学研究工具，从关联市场视角下探索股权质押风险跨市场传染的路径和规律。首先描述了股权质押二部图网络的构建方法，利用关联网络的阈值传染模型描述证券市场和基金市场之间股权质押违约风险传染动力学；进一步收集整理2017年底沪深两市A股市场未解压股权质押数据和基金产品持股数据构建了真实的网络；最后，采用蒙特卡洛模拟技术仿真股权质押风险的传染过程，验证清盘抛售概率、平仓价等参数对风险传染范围的影响，计算每一家股权质押上市公司作为风险传染源的系统性风险贡献度，辨识出系统重要性股权质押公司。     

基于东亚对华FDI的技术进步对我国农业的影响研究

通过理论分析并运用可计算的一般均衡模型(CGE)模拟基于外国直接投资(FDI)的技术进步对我国农业的影响. 结果表明：随着东亚区域经济合作,基于自由贸易区的对华FDI逐步增加;农业及其要素生产部门技术进步会促进农业部 门及其出口不同程度的增加,蔬菜和肉奶等产品出口增幅较大,同时实际工资水平和居民消费总值的降低;基于农业要 素生产部门技术进步的各经济指标对其弹性相对较大;农业部门技术进步越大,地区产出增长差异越大,而农业要素生产 部门相对农业部门的技术进步造成的地区发展不平衡更大.     

An eco- and inno-product design system applying integrated and intelligent qfde and triz methodology

The green environmental laws and regulations are legislated, implemented, and enforced in many countries and economic regions. The provision of green products and services are the fast growing trend in global consumer markets. Therefore, introducing new products with environmental considerations becomes critical for global brand manufacturers. This research depicts an integrated and intelligent eco- and inno-product design methodology to support environmental friendly green product development. The methodology adopts approaches, such as life cycle assessment (LCA), quality function deploymnet for environement (QFDE), theory of inventive problem solving (TRIZ) and back-propagation network (BPN) to achieve eco- and inno-design objectives. LCA evaluates and compares the environmental impacts of production. QFDE transforms high-level concerns of environment into design requirements. When there are many historical QFDE data, the BPN prediction model is trained and deployed to automate the specifications of green design improvement. TRIZ is to support the creation of innovative product design ideas effectively and efficiently during the concept design stage. Finally, this paper presents two eco-design cases of power adaptor to demonstrate the proposed methodology.     

New product design strategies with subsidy policies

Industrial development can enrich people’s lives,but it also causes environmental pollution,which is an area of significant concern among governments,consumers,and companies.Governments formulate some environmental policies,which motivate industry by providing greater incentives for green product development.Consumers are classified into two groups - ordinary and green market segments - according to their environmental awareness and attitudes.In this regard,companies need to reconsider their primary product design strategies.By investigating the interactions among customers’ preferences,firms’ product strategies,and government subsidy policies,this paper presents a theoretical model for new product design strategies.After detailed theoretical analysis of such strategies,we found that to motivate firms to choose environmentally friendly product design strategies, governments should inaugurate effective subsidy policies.After simultaneously considering environmental issues and firms’ benefits,we designed a subsidy policy.With such a policy,firms can change their primary product design strategies and develop both green and ordinary products,thereby increasing the firms’ profits and improving the total environmental quality.     

面对相同供应商时市场进入决策的博弈分析

论文研究了两个销售商在拥有各自销售市场并面对相同供应商情况下的市场进入策略. 分析了单个企业进入对方市场和两个企业同时互相进入对方市场的情况, 得出了在不同情况下供应商的最优定价策略, 以及销售商们的采购数量和销售商们在各市场上输出的产品数量. 研究发现在大多数情况下销售商们的纳什均衡解为互相进入对方市场. 但是当两个市场的市场规模和价格弹性相近的时候, 销售商们面临'囚徒困境'---虽然互相进入对方的市场是市场进入博弈的纳什均衡, 但销售商的利润值均低于各自选择不进入对方市场时的收益.     

Motivations of Chinese outward direct investment: The sector perspective

From the sector perspective of mining,manufacturing and services,the motivations of Chinese outward direct investment(further ODI)are discussed during the period from 2001 to 2012,acknowledging different host countries and firms’ownership structures.The estimated results justify that the location determinants of Chinese ODI differ between sectors,which implies the motivation behind such investment may vary.As expected,resource-seeking is the most important motivation for Chinese ODI in mining sector;market-and strategic asset-seeking motivations are possessed by both manufacturing and services sectors.The probability of the host country receiving Chinese FDI,as well as high FDI openness and frequent bilateral trade with China is favorable for doing business.Results also suggest that the factors increasing the probability of a country being chosen as a location for Chinese ODI vary between different host countries,as do different ownership structures.     

A Method to Visualize the Skeleton Industrial Structure with Input-Output Analysis and Its Application in China,Japan and USA

The paper established a double filtering method (DFM) to visualize the skeleton industrial structure (SIS) of one economy and find its evolution rule. Different with the previous researches, this method is from a new view of industrial conjunctions combined by leading sectors to depict the industrial structure. It was proved that the leading sector selected by DFM must be key sector selected by Hirschman-Rasmussen method. Applied DFM to input-output tables of China, Japan and USA and MFA to Japan and USA, the results analysis showed that DFM could overtake the two main shortcomings of minimum flow analysis (MFA), scratch SIS of each economy with its own characteristics, visualize the general evolution rules of the industrial structure with crisscrossed conjunctions among leading sectors.     

空间维视角下中国建筑产业竞争力形成机理差异化研究

针对中国区域建筑产业在发展过程中存在着明显差异性的现状, 在充分借鉴原有研究成果的基础上, 将DEA-DA模型与PLS结构模型结合, 实证研究了中国建筑产业竞争力形成机理在空间上存在的差异. 研究发现, 区域经济发展和生产要素投入两个指标在各区域中均极大地促进了竞争力的提升, 但其影响程度却存在着一定的差异; 建筑辅助产业、创新状况和产业组织三个指标, 对于不同区域中建筑产业竞争力的提升影响机理不尽相同; 竞争力度量的两个方面, 生产效益与生产效率, 在不同区域之间产生了不同的关系. 研究实现了产业竞争力在空间维上的理论与方法创新, 为后续面向中国建筑产业协同发展的产业规制研究奠定了必要的基础.     

A design for environment methodology for evaluation and improvement of derivative consumer electronic product development

Increasing environmental awareness and stringent environmental regulations have motivated many companies to incorporate ecodesign into product development.To assist companies to address the challenge,this research presents a design for environment(DfE) methodology to evaluate and improve derivative consumer electronic product development using a back-propagation neural network(BPNN) model and a technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution(TOPSIS) method.Based on use of a BPNN,the life cycle assessment(LCA) models are developed to estimate quantities of hazardous chemical substances and energy consumption for a derivative consumer electronic product throughout the product life cycle.A performance evaluation and improvement model for DfE is then devised based on the TOPSIS method to analyze the ecodesign performance and provide concrete improvement strategies.With the aforementioned analysis of environmental performance,an enterprise can profoundly understand and significantly enhance the relative DfE performance of a new product compared to the similar competitive products.Finally,we apply an optical mouse development project as a case to elaborate and demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.These analytical results can let us understand the DfE performance ranking and acquire the maximum reduced quantity of each DfE criterion for each module of a new product.Meanwhile,to enhance the green competitiveness of the new product,we recommend that the engineers should decrease the area of the circuit board of the new product.In addition,the material of the USB cable for the new product should be switched from the PVC material to the PE material.     

Design of a System Dynamics Model to Analyze the Styrene Demand in the Brazilian Market

The growth of the petrochemical industry is based on end-user applications such as the automotive and construction sectors, which are the main drivers of the styrene market. However, the use of substitutes for petrochemicals is a reality and creates a competition in the applications of petroleum products. In this sense, this research aimed to design a system dynamics model to evaluate different scenarios, observing the behavior of the styrene demand over time. In the first phase of the project, a greater understanding of the issue was created and a closed loops diagram was elaborated. It was used during the second phase to design an explanatory regression validation model for the styrene demand. In phase three, a visualizing model and scenarios were designed. The scenarios themselves and the results of each scenario were evaluated. The designed and simulated scenarios aimed to evaluate the impact that the use of substitute materials and the variations in gross domestic product cause to the styrene market. The use of system dynamics together with scenario planning was efficient as different strategies for the market could be evaluated based on the simulated scenarios. A critical analysis of the model’s contribution to the decision-making within organizations concludes the study.     

Enriching Service-Learning by Developing e-Tutoring in Foster Homes

In view of the learning divide between the children in ordinary families and those in foster homes, online one-to-one tutoring has been provided by university students as a service-learning option. Through the synchronous e-tutoring system platform, the goal of this study is to develop a service learning mode for creating campus-community partnerships and mutual learning experiences. Thus the study applies Ramsden’s theory of university teaching (2003) into an action research project for investigating (i) how e-tutoring can solve the problems occurring in face-to-face tutoring in foster homes; (ii) the effects of e-tutoring; (iii) the new issues identified; and (iv) new strategies for future iterations of the program. For explaining a social phenomenon through a theoretical framework, grounded theory analysis was applied and eight themes were identified in the qualitative data of 10 observation reports, 28 interviews, and 140 weekly journals from both ends of two foster homes and one university. Eight subcategories (content and learning, practical learning, tutoring concerns, knowledge gains, competency gains, adult guidance, e-tutoring approaches, and transformative development) are categorized along with Ramsden’s hierarchy theory—teaching as telling or transmission, teaching as organizing student activity, and teaching as making learning possible. With transformative development of the campus-community partnership the consensus goal among university faculty, directors of foster homes and relevant personnel of e-tutoring (Enos and Morton 2003), the study discussed future improvements for the e-tutoring program. The action research strongly suggests that e-tutoring should emphasize more reflective listening rather than subject-mattered achievement and turn service-learning into an opportunity of achieving the sustainable integration of community resources and social welfare institutions.     

安徽省水稻产业竞争力研究

以安徽省水稻种植、稻米加工、生产成本与收益情况分析为基础,阐述国际和国内水稻生产与贸易状况,分析影响安徽省水稻生产竞争力因素,提出提高安徽省水稻产业竞争力的对策。表2,参7。     

Construction of Social Development Index as a Theoretical Research Practice in Action Research by Using Soft Systems Methodology

This paper provides an illustration of the application of Soft Systems Methodology to construct social development index, based on a sociological concept of development proposed by Wirutomo et al. (Pengembangan Indeks Pembangunan Sosial (IPS) Bagi Sektor Informal di Perkotaan: Menuju Kebijakan Inklusif bagi Usaha Kecil, 2011). An action research (AR) is conducted in the field of street vendor promotion program perceived to be representing the social development practice. While the improvement of fundamental elements of societal life, i.e., social structure, culture, and social process can be identified in the field of street vendor promotion program, it is believed that the same development aspects can be explored at many other development sectors. A preliminary social development index is conctructed by using a single sector development program. It is expected that through a further research agenda, a comprehensive social development profile equipped with its related index can be presented. The findings of this SSM-based AR can be considered ??as primary ??thesis?? derived from ??messes?? or ??surprising facts?? of a real world problematic situation?? as described by Stephens et al. (Syst Pract Action Res 22:463?C474, 2009). As an AR practice, this research is a research interest, instead of a problem solving interest in AR (McKay and Marshall, Inf Technol People 14:46?C59, 2001); it is also a theoretical research practice, instead of a business change practice/empirical research practice and regular business practice (Cronholm and Goldkuhl, The 2nd European Conference on Research Methods in Business and Management (ECRM 2003), 2003), and it is an interpretative actions and theory development actions as mentioned by Cronholm and Goldkuhl (The 2nd European Conference on Research Methods in Business and Management (ECRM 2003), 2003). This paper also provides an illustration of a variant relationship between P and A as introduced by McKay and Marshall (Inf Technol People 14:46?C59, 2001), which is ??there are some elements of P that overlap with some elements of A??.     

考虑消费者有机产品偏好的生鲜农产品供应链均衡研究

针对普通农产品和有机农产品同时生产销售的现实状况,利用变分不等式理论构建了考虑消费者有机产品偏好的生鲜农产品供应链网络均衡模型,并通过数值算例探讨了消费者有机产品偏好及其他影响因素对供应链网络成员生产销售决策及利润的影响.研究结果表明,随着消费者有机产品偏好的提升,生产和销售有机农产品有助于生产商和零售商实现增收,但生产商可能会经历波折;降低有机农产品生产成本能够有效促进有机农业的发展;树立有机农产品的良好品牌形象增强其价格竞争力对供应链各方均有利;产量变化及需求波动都将对市场和各方利润造成较大影响.研究结论对相关企业的决策和相关领域的研究有一定借鉴意义.