对流解析区域气候模式对青藏高原降水模拟能力的研究

以中国科学院区域气候-环境重点实验室研制的区域环境集成系统模式(RIEMS 2.0)为基础,采用中国科学院资源与环境数据中心提供的植被类型数据和北京师范大学提供的中国土壤质地数据,以及美国地质调查局提供的月植被覆盖度资料,进行模式本地化,从而建成了青藏高原对流解析区域气候模式．利用该模式对青藏高原进行了2001—2018年连续积分模拟,重点考察了区域气候模式在水平分辨率为9 km条件下对青藏高原降水模拟能力,结果表明:1）模式能够较好地模拟年、雨季降水的空间分布特征以及不同区域降水年变化,同时,模式模拟降水较观测偏多,偏差为13.01%~39.95%;区域气候模式模拟青藏高原降水较国际耦合模式“比较计划第六阶段（CMIP6）”45个全球模式模拟试验结果的年降水空间分布和强度有明显提高,并且更加接近观测值．2）模式能够较好地模拟出年降水时间和4个不同等级降水事件空间分布,特别是5~10、10~20、>20 mm这3个不同等级降水时间接近观测值．3）模式能够较好地模拟出青藏高原不同区域候平均降水随时间演变,降水强度除半干旱藏南地区较观测明显偏多外,对其他地区模式模拟的降水都非常接近观测值,同时与观测值之间相关系数为0.901~0.981,都通过99%置信度检验,与观测值之间的均方根误差为0.37~0.99 mm·d?1,其中对于极度干旱的柴达木地区候平均降水也能够较好地模拟出来,相关系数达到0.919;对青藏高原西南的南羌塘地区模拟最好,相关系数达到0.981．4）该研究表明采用青藏高原对流解析区域气候模式进行动力降尺度后,解决青藏高原等地区缺乏长时间序列高时空分辨率的气象数据集的瓶颈问题,为青藏高原气候和环境未来变化、生态安全屏障建设等提供坚实可靠的科学数据基础．      

青藏铁路运营期间冻土路基裂缝问题研究

运营期青藏铁路冻土区路基工程最值得关注的变化是不同部位裂缝的发生和发展以及对线路安全运行的影响.通过对不同时期青藏铁路多年冻土区路基工程裂缝发生发展影响因素的分析,认为冻土区路基工程基底地温场的不对称以及基底土体冻融过程不同步是路基工程变形裂缝发生的主要原因,路基坡脚和周围冻土水热环境变化是裂缝发展的拉动力,路基填料性质也是不容忽略的因素;根据运营期间冻土路基热状态和工程状态分析,对运营期青藏铁路冻土路基工程状态进行了初步评价,并提出了减少或消除地温场的不对称及保护路基坡脚冻土环境,从而抑制冻土路基裂缝的工程对策.     

The Actualities and Countermeasures of Soil Erosion along the Tanggula to Lhasa Section of the Qinghai-Tibet Railway

IntheareawheretheTanggulatoLhasasectionoftheQinghai TibetRailwaypassesthrough,the naturalconditionsareuniqueandtheresourcesarerich,butthepopulationissparse,theeconomyislessdeveloped.Fortheeffectofthe naturalconditionsontheplateau,theecologicalenvironmentisveryfragileandisshowingthe tendencyofretrogression.Astheconstructionwouldlargelydisturbtheearthsurfaceandvegetationandwouldhavealargequantityofearth andstonedigging,theconstructionoftherailwayinthisareawouldcertainlyleadtoaseriesofquestions…     

青藏铁路工程对高寒草地生态系统的影响

分析了青藏铁路冻土区段高寒生态系统主要分布类型及其变化背景，利用对青藏公路工程的类比调查数据，研究了不同高寒生态系统对工程扰动的抗干扰能力和受损后的自然恢复能力，以及不同生态系统与冻土环境的相互关系。综合考虑干扰场地土壤环境，冻土条件以及不同生态系统对干扰的抵抗与恢复能力等要素，提出了评价青藏铁路对生态环境影响的综合干扰度方法和定量评价模型，基于未来不同气候演变情境及其与人类工程活动耦合下冻土环境变化及其对高寒生态系统的影响。结合青藏铁路施工方案，定量评价了青藏铁路工程对高寒生态系统的可能影响。结果表明：大部分严重干扰施工地带对高寒草甸草地只有中等程度影响，影响区高寒草地植被覆盖度将维持在50％以上，高寒草原区重工程扰动地带除了局部有明显影响外，大部分地区只有中等至轻度影响，而中度与轻度工程扰动区域，工程对高寒生态系统的影响轻微。     

基于人工神经网络的青藏公路铁路沿线生态系统风险研究

根据青藏公路铁路沿线（50 km缓冲区）生态系统特征,选取雪灾、旱灾、崩塌滑坡等7项指标,依托人工神经网络MLP（Multilayer Percetron）模型,构建青藏公路铁路沿线生态风险评价模型。评价结果显示：青藏公路铁路沿线生态系统所跨越的6个自然区的平均生态风险值居前3位的是：柴达木山地荒漠区（4.2585）,果洛那曲高寒灌丛草甸区（2.7640）、青东祁连山地草原区（2.7335）;沿线10种植被生态系统平均生态风险值居前3位的是：针叶林生态系统（4.3096）、荒漠生态系统（4.1174）和无植被地段（3.6182）。在影响各区、各植被生态系统风险值大小的因素中,自然因素为主要控制因素,人为因素影响相对较弱。依据评价结果,将青藏公路铁路沿线生态系统划分为4个区：柴达木盆地高风险区、西大滩至当雄中度风险区、青东祁连和青南2个轻度风险区。     

Changes in permafrost ecosystem under the influences of human engineering activities and its enlightenment to railway construction

~~disturbedhigh-coldmeadowarea,theoriginalvegetationisverydifficulttorestorealthoughitssurfacelandscapecanberestoredtoacertaindegree.Borrowpitsandpilinggroundshavegreatdestructiontothehigh-coldmeadow,thehigh-coldmeadowecosystemalmostcannotbere-storedbynaturalprocesses,therefore,greateffortsshouldbemadetoavoidsettingupborrowgroundinthehigh-coldmeadowregion.AcknowledgementsThisworkwassupportedbytheNationalNaturalScienceFoundationofChina(GrantNos.90102001and30270255)andtheKeyProjectionofKnowl…     

Stability of alpine meadow ecosystem on the Qinghai- Tibetan Plateau

THE QINGHAI-TIBETAN PLATEAU PLAYS AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN THE ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION AND REGIONAL MONSOON CLIMATE, WHICH HAS GREAT INFLUENCE ON THE REGIONAL AND GLOBAL CLIMATE. THUS, THE CHANGE OF THE QINGHAI-TIBETAN PLATEAU ECOSYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT …     

基于反演参数的多年冻土路基长期温度场预测

利用青藏铁路清水河试验段路基3 a的现场温度场及沉降监测数据,采用模拟退火算法改进的BP神经网络算法反演了冻土路基的热力学参数,并在反演参数的基础上应用有限元法模拟预测了冻土路基在不同保温处理方案下的长期温度场变化情况.结果表明:保温材料路基阴阳坡地的温度场差异小于素填土路基,多年冻土季节性活动层厚度也远低于素填土路基;保温材料路基施工后3 a内仍将发生冻融变形,形成路基病害,但破坏程度低于素填土路基;50 a后,保温材料路基将与青藏高原气候环境达到新的热平衡状态,施工对多年冻土造成的破坏可得到修复,路基稳定性良好,但素填土路基仍存在较厚的季节性活动层,这将会使路基发生严重的变形破坏;保温处理方案可较为有效地减少冻土路基的不均匀沉降.     

Study on the Technology of Restoration and Giving a New Lease of Life to the Alpine Grassland Vegetation in the Constuction of the Qinghai-Tibet Railway

1BasicBackgroundoftheExperi mentalStudy1.1TheBasisandPurposeoftheStudyTheconstructionoftheQinghai TibetRailwayistheensuranceoftheprosperityandsustainable developmentofQinghaiProvinceandTibetAutonomousRegion.Throughscientificandexperimentalstudyandtheapplicationofnew technology,strengtheningtheprotectionofecologicalenvironmentandtherestorationofthesurfacevegetationaftertheconstructionaretheimportantworkcontentofbuildingtheQinghai TibetRailwayintotherailwayofenvironmentalprotection.Ontheq…     

解决青藏铁路建设中冻土工程问题的思路与思考

围绕青藏铁路冻土工程地质、气候变化对冻土及铁路路基稳定性、生态环境变化与保护问题,分析了青藏铁路工程建设中存在的冻土工程技术问题,提出了青藏铁路建设中应对这些问题的新思路,采取积极保护多年冻土的主动冷却路基的思路和动态设计思路,并给出了青藏铁路建设中下一步应思考和研究的问题。     

Soil erosion rates and characteristics of typical alpine meadow using <Superscript>137</Superscript>Cs technique in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Alpine meadow is the predominant ecosystem in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.The firm turf of alpine meadow formed by sub-surface anfractuous roots can be effective in conserving water and soil.Alpine meadow is a primary contributor to the Chinese Water Tower.For quantitative assess anti-erosion ability of alpine meadow,this paper selected three typical meadow slopes with>60% vegetation coverage to evaluate soil erosion rates using 137Cs.The results showed that(1)soil erosion intensity of typical alpine meadow was slight to light.Erosion rates were 464 t km–2 a–1 in Malong Village,415 t km–2 a–1 in Yeniugou Town and 875 t km–2 a–1 in Zhenqin Town respectively;(2)soil erosion rates were correlated negatively with vegetation coverage,and the relationship was clearer at the slope scale than plot scale;(3)the relationship between soil erosion and vegetation coverage showed that vegetation coverage was a predominant factor in retaining soil and water on slopes.With complete turf and high vegetation coverage, alpine meadow was of great significance for soil conservation and prevention of soil erosion.     

川西高山高原过渡带植被对气候变化的响应

植被是陆地生态系统的主体,被认为是人类环境评价和监测的重要参数,利用遥感技术来监测植被生长及其对气候因子的响应成为当前全球变化研究的热点之一.川西高山高原区是我国地势最高一级的青藏高原向川西南山地和四川盆地的过渡地带,属生态环境脆弱区,对全球气候变化敏感.基于MODIS植被产品及气温、降水站点数据对2001-2010年川西高山高原过渡带的气温和降水的年际变化、NDVI的时空演变及其与气候因子的相关关系,较好的揭示了研究区的植被生长对气候因子变化的响应特点.研究结果表明:NDVI与降水量和气温均呈正相关关系.温度是春季植被生长的主要影响因素,降水量是秋季植被生长的主要影响因素.     

基于时间序列模型的青藏铁路路基变形预测

为分析青藏铁路路基高程不规则变形,通过建立高程—时间响应模型,基于Box-Jenkins建模方法,确定时间序列模型阶数,根据AIC准则,选取适合的时间序列模型,最后给出批量预测全部路基测点高程的算法步骤。研究了青藏铁路路基高程随时间变形规律问题。结果表明：以2010年—2018年每月青藏铁路K1425+050处左侧路基高程数据为例,建立了ARMA(2,1,1)模型,并以2019年数据作为验证集,模型通过了模型适应性检验,证明了模型的有效性和准确性;总结了青藏铁路沿线各测点至2023年12月预测值中可能出现重大变形以及测点左右两侧路基高程差值出现较大差值的10个危险点;在测点K1476+600附近,路基两侧出现明显长距离的差异。可见本模型能准确预测青藏铁路路基高程的变化,对于工程养护维修具有一定借鉴意义。     

Groundwater circulation relative to water quality and vegetation in an arid transitional zone linking oasis, desert and river

In groundwater-dependent ecosystems, groundwater circulation controls the overall water quality and ecosystem dynamics. Groundwater and vegetation across a 30-km groundwater transect linking oasis, desert and river in an extremely arid area were investigated with a series of soil profiles drilled into the unsaturated zone to understand groundwater circulation and its control on groundwater quality and surface vegetation in the extremely arid Lower Tarim River, NW China. Measurements have included water-table depth, water chemistry and water isotopes (2H, 18O, 3H) for 15 water samples, soil moisture and chloride content for 11 soil profiles, and vegetation investigation. Results show that the groundwater in desert zone is characterized by slow recharge rate (pre-modern water), great water-table depth (6.17-9.43 m) and high salinity (15.32-26.50 g/L), while that in oasis (uncultivated land) and riparian zone is characterized by relatively fast recharge rate (modern water), small groundwater-table depth (3.56-8.36 m) and low salinity (1.25-1.95 g/L). Stable isotopes show that secondary evaporation takes place during irrigation in oasis. The vegetation characteristics (coverage, richness, evenness and number of plants) are closely related to soil moisture and water-table depth. Groundwater recharge from irrigation in oasis and from river in riparian zone sustains a better ecosystem than that in the desert area, where lateral and vertical groundwater recharge is limited. The more evapotranspirative enrichment may occur in the vegetated and water-rich riparian zone as compared to desert. This study also demonstrates the effectiveness of environmental tracers in studying ecohydrological processes in arid regions.     

Effects of vegetation height and density on soil temperature variations

Reduction in vegetation cover caused by human activities has a great impact on soil temperature. It is important to assess how soil temperature responds to reduction of vegetation height and density. In this paper we first report the trends of mean annual soil surface and air temperatures recorded at the meteorological stations near the Ecological Research Station for Grassland Farming (ERSGF) from 1961 to 2007, then we setup an experiment using reed (Phragmites australis) stalks with different heights and densities to simulate effects of different vegetation height and density on soil and air temperatures. The warming rates of the mean annual soil and air temperatures were 0.043 and 0.041C a 1 , respectively. Changes of soil temperature were characterized by both increased mean annual maximum and minimum soil temperatures. At the experimental site, mean daily temperature, mean daily maximum soil and air temperatures increased significantly. In contrast, mean daily minimum soil temperature increased significantly while mean daily minimum air temperature decreased significantly as the height and density of reed stalks reduced during the experimental period. Mean diurnal soil temperature ranges were smaller than mean diurnal air temperature ranges. These results highlight that the importance of vegetation cover on soil and air temperatures.     

1990—2010年间我国北方农牧交错带植被覆盖度变化归因

以我国北方传统农牧交错带为研究区,以植被归一化指数(NDVI)表征地表植被覆盖度,对土地利用数据和降水量、气温等气象数据两大类影响因子进行相关性分析.研究发现:1990—2010年该地区主要土地利用类型发生了显著的相互转化,但占优势的仍是草地、耕地和林地,土地利用和景观结构未发生重大变化.研究期间,北方农牧交错带耕地、林地和未利用土地植被覆盖度均有所增加,草地植被覆盖度有所减少.植被覆盖度与年均降水量呈极显著相关性,1990—2010年农牧交错带降水呈减少趋势,植被覆盖度上升趋势明显.植被覆盖度与同期年均气温数据也呈现一定的正相关性,1990—2010年农牧交错带气温变化属于升温趋势,植被覆盖度上升趋势明显.研究表明北方农牧交错带植被覆盖度变化是在全球气候变化和人类活动的双重影响下发生的,土地利用变化和降水、气温气象数据两种因素对植被覆盖度的影响具有明显的地域性特征,土地利用变化因子的影响由于受政策和人类活动的参与而正逐渐占据着主导地位,而气候条件中,气温升高对植被覆盖度具有一定的正相关性,降水量因子在径流量充沛地区影响作用较弱,但在水源缺乏,人类活动干预较少农牧交错带西北地区仍然有着重要的影响作用.     

生态建设工程对坝上农用地土壤风蚀治理的后效——以河北省张家口市康保牧场为例

通过在农牧交错带河北省张家口市坝上高原康保牧场野外调查研究,采用标桩法测定土壤风蚀厚度,计算土壤年风蚀量,采用目测法测定样地植被盖度.将该地生态建设初期与生态建设10年后的土壤风蚀量作对比.结果表明:生态建设十年后土壤风蚀量比生态建设初期土壤风蚀量明显减少,植被盖度明显增加.并提出巩固生态工程建设成果的若干建议.     

青藏铁路沿线地震灾害风险分析

通过对青藏铁沿线区域地震地质调查和近百年地震资料整理,以此为基础建立震级-频度关系式.根据历史地震重演和构造类比分析的原理,并结合青藏铁路沿线地震构造带的分布情况,对青藏铁路沿线区域地震危险性进行预测.结果表明,青藏铁路沿线区域震级-频度关系中b值为0.72,最高震级上限为8.2级,8级地震平均发震周期约80年,未来百年内8级地震发生概率0.86,青藏铁路约有过半以上里程处于较高风险区.     

贵州喀斯特地区植被修复对土壤氮素的影响

喀斯特地区正开展一系列的生态恢复工程措施,研究生态修复过程与土壤氮循环过程的交互作用对喀斯特地区生态系统植被修复具有重要的科学意义。本研究以贵州草海保护区不同地貌(非喀斯特、喀斯特及植被修复)为研究对象,采用时空互代法研究地貌环境对土壤氮组分(全氮、碱解氮、硝态氮、铵态氮)分布特征的影响,并分析它们与土壤理化因子之间的关系。结果表明：(1)非喀斯特样带氮含量与喀斯特样带对比,前者土壤氮素累积呈现向上富集的规律,在土壤表层呈表聚现象,土壤硝态氮和铵态氮含量均高于喀斯特样带,铵态氮占无机氮主要部分;(2)喀斯特样带由于地质条件、植被覆盖度低、凋落物归还量少和土壤侵蚀导致活性有机碳较低,进而影响土壤氮素累积;植被恢复初始阶段,土壤中氮素供应强度会得到改善,土壤硝化和氨化速率均有显著提升,土壤侵蚀作用减弱,土壤对养分的固持能力加强,进而土壤硝态氮和铵态氮含量显著高于喀斯特样带。     

Convergence across biomes to a common rain-use efficiency

Water availability limits plant growth and production in almost all terrestrial ecosystems. However, biomes differ substantially in sensitivity of aboveground net primary production (ANPP) to between-year variation in precipitation. Average rain-use efficiency (RUE; ANPP/precipitation) also varies between biomes, supposedly because of differences in vegetation structure and/or biogeochemical constraints. Here we show that RUE decreases across biomes as mean annual precipitation increases. However, during the driest years at each site, there is convergence to a common maximum RUE (RUE(max)) that is typical of arid ecosystems. RUE(max) was also identified by experimentally altering the degree of limitation by water and other resources. Thus, in years when water is most limiting, deserts, grasslands and forests all exhibit the same rate of biomass production per unit rainfall, despite differences in physiognomy and site-level RUE. Global climate models predict increased between-year variability in precipitation, more frequent extreme drought events, and changes in temperature. Forecasts of future ecosystem behaviour should take into account this convergent feature of terrestrial biomes.