Response of Zhadang Glacier runoff in Nam Co Basin,Tibet, to changes in air temperature and precipitation form

This paper describes 2007/2008 inter-annual changes in runoff from the Zhadang Glacier located on the northern slope of Nyainqêntanglha Range, Tibet, and analyzes their causes. Precipitation increased by 17.9% in summer months of 2008 compared with the same period in 2007, drainage basin runoff decreased by 33.3%, and glacial meltwater decreased by 53.8%. Change in positive accumulated air temperature explained approximately half of the inter-annual difference in glacial meltwater using a de-gree-day model. This suggests that the glacier is extremely sensitive to changes in air temperature. Energy balance analysis showed that change in glacier surface albedo, considered to be caused by difference in precipitation form, resulted in the large inter-annual difference in glacial meltwater. It was shown statistically that precipitation form in the summer months of 2007 was mainly rainfall which comprised 71.5% of total precipitation, while during the same period in 2008 rainfall accounted for 30.7%, with the majority of precipitation falling as snow. Precipitation form should be considered an independent factor when analyzing glacier sensitivity to climate change or forecasting the runoff from certain glaciers.     

Variations in equilibrium line altitude of the Qiyi Glacier,Qilian Mountains,over the past 50 years

Based on observations of the equilibrium line altitude (ELA) of the Qiyi Glacier in the Qilian Mountain, we established a statistical model between ELA and its major influencing factors, warm season air temperature (air temperature averages for September, July and August) and cold season precipitation (total precipitation in the period January through March). Warm season air temperature was the leading climatic factor influencing ELA variations. The glacier ELA ascends (descends) 172 m when warm season air temperature increases (decreases) by 1°C, and ascends (descends) 62 m when cold season precipitation decreases (increases) by 10%. In the period 1958–2008, the glacier ELA showed a general increasing trend, ascending 230 m and reaching its highest altitude in 2006 at 5131 m a.s.l., close to the glacier summit. If future climate is similar to that in the period 2001–2008, the Qiyi Glacier will not stabilize until it retreats by 2.08 km.     

Quick ice mass loss and abrupt retreat of the maritime glaciers in the Kangri Karpo Mountains,southeast Tibetan Plateau

The maritime glaciers are sensitive to climate change because of high annual precipitation and high air temperature in the region. A combined comprehensive study was carried out based on glacier mass balance observation, GPS-based glacier terminus position survey, glacier Ground Penetrating Radar, topography maps and RS satellite images in the Kangri Karpo Mountains, Southeast Tibet. The study revealed a strong ice mass loss and quick glacier retreat since the 1970s. Ata Glacier, one glacier from the south slope of the Kangri Karpo Mountains, has formed a 6-km-long terminal moraine zone at the end of the glacier since the 1970s, and the accelerating retreat is largely due to the strong glacier surface melting. Mass balance study on the other four glaciers on the northern side of the Kangri Karpo Mountains shows that they are in large negative mass balance and the glaciers had retreated 15--19 m from May 2006 to May 2007. The in-situ glacier observation also shows that the glacier retreat is more obvious in small glaciers. The enhanced ice mass deficit caused by climate warming and the ongoing extinction of many small glaciers in this region could seriously affect the water resources, environ- ments, local climate and regional sustainable development in the near future.     

Changes in physical features of Glacier No. 1 of the Tianshan Mountains in response to climate change

This study analyzes the changes in glacier zones and snow composition of Glacier No.1 in the Tianshan Mountains of China since 1961,and their possible relations with climate.It is found that precipitation dominated the snow composition and that air temperature and precipitation controlled the distribution of glacier zones,but interannual change in precipitation had a relatively large effect on glacier zones and snow composition during 1963–1981 (P10) and 1963–1989 (P11).However,during 1982–2007 (P20) and 19...     

Glacier changes during the last forty years in the Tarim Interior River basin, northwest China

By comparing digitized glacier outlines from the Chinese Glacier Inventory (CGI) during the 1960s–1970s and Landsat Enhance Thematic Mapper (ETM+) images from 1999 to 2001, we investigated changes for about 7665 alpine glaciers among 11665 glaciers in seven sub-basins of the Tarim Interior River basin (TIRB). The results showed that the total glacier area was reduced by 3.3% from the 1960s/ 1970s to 1999/2001 and area losses for 1–5 km2 glaciers accounted for 48.3% of the total glacier area loss in the TIRB. However, the glacier area reductions varied from 0.7% to 7.9% among the seven sub-basins of the TIRB during the study period. The glacier area changing with altitude showed that the maximum contribution of area shrinkage occurred at 4900–5400 m. Data from 25 meteorological stations in the TIRB showed increases in both the annual mean air temperature and annual precipitation during 1960–2000. This indicates that the glacier shrinkage in the TIRB over the last 40 years was largely due to regional climate warming that enhanced glacier ablation and overcame the effects of increased precipitation on the glacier mass balance.     

天山一号冰川地区气候要素的变化及其对冰川物质平衡的影响

通过对逐日气温、降水、流量和相对湿度等实测数据进行小波分析,提取了天山乌鲁木齐河源一号冰川地区近10年来的气候变化特征.在此基础上,运用灰熵关联分析方法进一步研究了冰川物质平衡量与不同气候要素的关联关系.结果显示:研究区气候要素在4d,16d,32d和64d尺度上的变化存在阶段性、周期性和弱趋势性三大特征;在较宽的时间尺度上,气温要素的极大值与极小值呈非对称性变化;1996-2004年期间,冰川物质平衡主要受气温类要素的影响;9-5月(物质平衡年)的降水量是冰川物质积累的重要来源.     

Numerical simulation of Urumqi Glacier No. 1 in the eastern Tianshan, central Asia from 2005 to 2070

Due to climate changes, most of the alpine glaciers have retreated dramatically during the past decades. Thus it is significant to predict the alpine glacier variability in the future for a better understanding of the impact of climate changes on water resource. In this paper, we perform the numerical simulation on Urumqi Glacier No.1 in the eastern Tianshan, central Asia (hereafter Glacier No.1 for short) by considering both the mass balance and ice flow. Given the shape of the Glacier No.1, the velocity of the glacier is obtained by solving a two-dimensional nonlinear Stokes equation and simulated result is in agreement with the observation. In order to predict the variability of Glacier No.1 in the next decades, a climatic scenario is constructed with a temperature rise rate as 0.17°C/10 a and precipitation as constant during the period of 2005-2070. The simulation shows that, the glacier terminus will retreat slowly and the glacier will thin dramatically before 2040, while after year 2040, the glacier terminus retreat will accelerate. This study confirms the increasing retreat rate of alpine glaciers under global warming.     

Variations in the equilibrium line altitude of Urumqi Glacier No.1, Tianshan Mountains, over the past 50 years

The glacier ELA is one of the important parameters reflecting climate change.Based on observations of the equilibrium line altitude(ELA) of Urumqi Glacier No.1 in the Tianshan Mountains,we established a statistical model between ELA and its major influencing factors,warm season air temperature(air temperature averages for May,June,July and August) and annual precipitation.Result showed that,warm season air temperature was the leading climatic factor influencing ELA variations.The glacier ELA ascends(descends) 61.7 m when warm season air temperature increases(decreases) by 1°C,and ascends(descends) 13.1 m when cold season precipitation decreases(increases) by 10%.In the period 1959-2008,the glacier ELA showed a general increasing trend,ascending108 m and reaching its highest altitude in 2008 at 4168 m a.s.l.,close to the glacier summit.If future climate is similar to that in the past 50 years,the ELA of Urumqi Glacier No.1 will still ascend with a speed of 2.16 m/a.However,If future climate is similar to that in the period 2000-2008,the ELA will still ascend with a speed of 6.5 m/a before it is stable.As a result of ELA variation,the accumulation area ratio(AAR) of the glacier showed a decreasing trend during the past 50 years.     

Characteristics of recent temperate glacier fluctuations in the Parlung Zangbo River basin,southeast Tibetan Plateau

Little is known about recent variation of temperate glaciers on the Tibetan Plateau, although they are of particular theoretical and practical interests in terms of climate change and water supply. The study of glacier mass balance and terminus variation for six temperate glaciers in the Parlung Zangbo River basin, southeast Tibetan Plateau, shows the facts of the overall negative mass balance and the continued terminus retreat from 2005/2006 to 2007/2008. The mass balances of smaller glaciers were more negative compared to larger glaciers. Referring the trend of glacier mass balance in the Hengduan Mountains, the Himalayas and glacier shrinkage in southeast Tibetan Plateau, the mass loss and recession of temperate glacier in this region are expected if the current climate condition continues.     

Recent area and ice volume change of Kangwure Glacier in the middle of Himalayas

This paper calculated and evaluated the area and ice volume changes of Kangwure Glacier in Mt. Xixiabangma, middle of Himalayas in the past 3 decades, based on the field survey of glacier boundary position by differential GPS and glacier depth by Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR), together with the topographic map and remote sense data. The studied data showed that the Kangwure Glacier has experienced significant mass deficit since the 1970s, with 34.2% of area loss, 48.2% of ice volume loss and 7.5 m of average thickness decrease. This result revealed that the ice volume loss of Himalayan glaciers was more serious than expected. Analysis of meteorological data from two weather stations in the region of Mt. Xixiabangma, shows that the air temperature of this region has risen from the middle of the 20th century to the beginning of the 21st century. Significant retreat of Himalayas glacier driven by climatic warming will have a remarkable impact on hydrology and ecosystem.     

A new type of ice formation zone found in the Himalayas

Ice formation was studied on the Dasuopu Glacier located in the Mount Xixabangma (28°23′ N, 85°43'E) in the Himalayas. Snow pits and shallow ice cores are analyzed to reveal ice formation process. The results show that the ice formation process, or in other words, the process of densitifica-tion, on the col (7 000 m a.s. I.) of the Dasuopu Glacier is a stable, slow and gradual process. The snow-ice transformation on the glacier is estimated to be 30-40 m below the surface. The temperature on the Dasuopu Glacier is very low (～ - 14℃ at 10 m) and similar to that in polar type ice cap. We, therefore, speculate that the process of snow-ice transformation is undertaken under snow pressure, and that there is a percolation zone on the Dasuopu Glacier. The high altitude of the col and monsoon snow fall accompnied by heavy cloud and high albedo favorite the percolation zone formation.     

Testing the ability of RIEMS2.0 to simulate multi-year precipitation and air temperature in China

RIEMS2.0 （Regional Integrated Environment Modeling System, Version 2.0） is now being developed starting from RIEMS1.0 by the Key Laboratory of Regional Climate Environment Research for Temperate East Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China. In order to test RIEMS2.0’s ability to simulate long-term climate and its changes, as well as provide a basis for further development and applications, we compare simulated precipitation and air temperature from 1980 to 2007 （simulation duration from Jan. 1, 1979 to Dec. 31, 2007） under different cumulus parameterization schemes with the observed data. The results show that RIEMS2.0 can reproduce the spatial distribution of precipitation and air temperature, but that the model overestimates precipitation with the rainfall center moving northwestward and underestimates air temperature for annual simulations. Annual and interannual variations in precipitation and air temperature for different climate subregions are well captured by the model. Further analysis of summer and winter simulations shows that precipitation is overestimated, except for the Jianghuai-Jiangnan subregions in the winter, and the air temperature bias in the summer is weaker than in the winter. There are larger biases for precipitation and air temperature in semiarid subregions. Anomalies in precipitation and air temperature are also well captured by the model. Although a similar distribution can be found between observed data and simulated results under different cumulus parameterization schemes, these show differences in intensity and location. In sum, RIEMS2.0 shows good stability and does well in simulating the long-term climate and its changes in China.     

1982－1998年中国不同地区地表反照率变化原因初探

本文使用1982－1998年NOAA/AVHRR数据与同期的温度和降水资料,分析了地表反照率的变化与温度和降水之间的相互关系.研究结果表明,中国区域年均地表反照率的空间分布与变化趋势有明显的地域差异;不同地区地表反照率与温度和降水均有较好的相关性,东北森林地区地表反照率与同期气温和降水的相关性最好,相关系数分别为0.7...     

基于无人机技术的藏东南帕隆4号冰川表面高程和运动速度变化研究

应用无人机技术，采用后差分测量（post processed kinematic，PPK）方法替代传统控制点的方法，对藏东南帕隆4号冰川消融区进行了航测，获得了2017—2018年3期高精度正射影像（DOM）、数字表面模型（DSM）和三维点云数据；分析了该冰川航测区内表面高程变化、运动速度空间差异和冰川微地貌特征等. 结果表明:PPK测量技术应用效果良好，无人机产品水平和垂直精度分别约为0.11和0.17 m；帕隆4号冰川消融区表面高程变化量呈现随海拔升高而降低的空间分布规律，冰川冰体整体减薄4.06 m；冰川表面运动速度随海拔升高而增大，呈现冰川中流线区域略快于两侧的空间分布特征；冰川表面地貌特征随海拔由高到低呈现趋于“平滑”的变化规律. 此外，还探究了无人机技术在冰川变化研究中的潜力，为未来利用无人机开展更大范围冰川变化的研究提供了有益经验.      

玛纳斯河流域的径流与洪水特征分析

为掌握玛纳斯河流域的径流与洪水特性，更好地发挥玛纳斯河在工农业生产和防洪工作的重要作用，本文根据玛纳斯河上游肯斯瓦特水文站多年水文观测资料，对玛纳斯河的径流与洪水特征进行了阐述与分析。结果表明，冰川是玛纳斯河流域径流的主要补给源，影响该流域径流年际、年内变化的主要因素是降水和气温，其径流年内分配集中在6～8月，径流过程略滞后于气温和降水过程。     

IR4通道反照率计算及其在降水过程分析中的应用

在推导IR4通道反照率反演公式的基础上, 将IR4通道亮温及其反照率计算结果用于北京地区夏季降水过程的个例分析。结果表明: IR4通道反照率在降水形成前会出现明显的先升后降的现象, 对降水的反馈早于红外长波(IR1)和水汽(WV)通道; 在强降水后的弱回波阶段, IR1和WV通道亮温会继续下降, 极值位置延迟于雷达最强回波位置, 而IR4通道亮温和反照率这一阶段的变化趋势与以上2个通道相反。     

高寒流域水文模拟与径流水源解析——以雅鲁藏布江帕隆藏布上游流域为例

为深入研究高寒流域河川径流的水源解析,选取雅鲁藏布江帕隆藏布上游流域为研究区,采用月流量、遥感积雪面积数据、实测冰川径流数据等多目标率定方法,改进单一依靠流量数据率定模型的方法,基于SPHY(Spatial Processes in Hydrology)水文模型开展水文模拟及径流组分研究,提高了总体建模质量.结果表明：在率定期和验证期Nash-Sutcliffe效率系数分别为0.95和0.94,模型具有较好的适用性.降雨径流、融雪径流、冰川径流和基流作为径流来源,占总径流的比例分别为10%、25%、45%和20%,冰川径流和融雪径流是最重要的补给来源.月尺度上,冰川径流在7-8月占比最大,融雪径流在4-6月占比最大,降雨径流在各月占比最小.冰川径流占比最高,短期内可提供更多水资源保障社会经济发展,长期而言冰川径流将逐渐减少,造成水资源短缺.因此,当地需提高应对径流变化潜在风险的策略.     

Semi-analytical analysis of the response of the air temperature over the land surface to the global vegetation distribution

Response of the air temperature over the land surface to the global vegetation distribution is investigated, using a three-dimensional governing equation to simulate the steady, large-scale, limited amplitude perturbation of the free, inviscid and adiabatic atmosphere. The adoption of the static equation leads to a temperature governing equation in the terrain following coordinate. With the prescribed temperature as the upper boundary condition and the radiation balance as the lower boundary condition, the semi-analytical solution of the global circulation temperature can be calculated. In this article, only the air temperature （at 2 m height） over the land surface is analyzed, and the result suggests that this model can simulate the air temperature pattern over the land surface reasonably. A better simulation occurs when a simple feedback of the albedo on the temperature is included. Two sensitivity experiments are analyzed through this model. One suggests that the air temperature over the land surface descends obviously when the land surface is covered with ice all over, while another suggests that the air temperature rises a little when the land surface is covered with forest except the ice-covered area. This model appears to be a good tool to study the response of the air temperature to the vegetation distribution. Limitations of the model are also discussed.     

三江平原沼泽湿地开垦后的热量平衡变化

三江平原沼泽湿地分布广泛且集中，沼泽湿地局地冷湿效应显著，但随着沼泽湿地开垦面积的增加，导致区域热平衡发生一系列的变化，最终会影响整个区域的生态环境。1997－1999年间、以三江平原沼泽湿地生态试验站为研究基地，从热平衡的角度出发，采用小气候自动观测仪器采集数据，研究区域沼泽湿地的热平衡状况。主要观测要素有：总辐射、净辐射、反射率等，并与开垦后的农田进行对比，探讨沼泽湿地生态系统演化的热平衡结构的变化规律。研究结果表明：沼泽湿地开垦后，地表反射率减少了16％左右，地表接受的太阳辐射增加了8％－10％，地表显热交换活跃，虽然这大大改善了土壤的热状况，有利于农田作物的生长，但明显改变了沼泽湿地原有的冷湿效应，减弱沼泽湿地特有的环境效应，随着湿地开垦面积的增加，必然导致区域生态平衡的变化。     

高温气流干燥氧化铝对流传热传质分析

基于两相流理论,提出了一个描述含湿氧化铝颗粒气流干燥过程的一维数学模型.模型考虑了干燥管内气固两相间的传热和传质、气固两相温度和含湿量的变化.利用Bird等所提出的努赛尔数经验公式对该气流干燥模型进行了数值计算,得到了含湿氧化铝颗粒在不同气流干燥条件下的干燥曲线.整个干燥过程的数值模拟结果与实验数据吻合得很好,可以用来预测含湿氧化铝颗粒的干燥湿度.另外,对固气比、气流温度以及气流速度对颗粒湿度沿干燥管高度变化的影响也作了计算和分析,结果表明固气比和气流温度对颗粒湿度的变化影响较大.低固气比、高气流入口温度,干燥过程颗粒湿度变化大,有利于颗粒干燥.而气流速度对颗粒湿度变化的影响则可忽略不计.