Using the Omnibus Survey to test questions on emigration

It is important that migration is measured accurately, for example to inform population estimates and projections. However, current sources of information make it difficult to produce robust estimates of emigration from Great Britain. Several other countries, including Ireland, make use of household surveys in their estimates of migration. To investigate the feasibility of obtaining information on emigration from those resident in Great Britain, three questions were included in the Omnibus Survey for two months. Respondents were asked whether they had plans to emigrate or whether anyone in their family had recently emigrated or intended to shortly. This article reports on the results of this pilot, providing evidence on response levels, comparison with the International Passenger Survey and feedback from interviewers on the questions asked.     

The changing demographic picture of the UK: national statistician's annual article on the population

The population of the UK is currently growing at its fastest rate since the 1960s, increasing by two and a half per cent between mid-2001 and mid-2006. While life expectancy continues to increase, fertility rates have also been increasing in the last five years and are currently at their highest level since 1980. In addition, international migration has led to the UK population growing by an average of 500 people per day over the last five years. The population is also becoming increasingly diverse and mobile, and these factors make it increasingly challenging to measure population change accurately. This is the first of a series of annual reports on the population of the UK; these reports will provide an overview of the latest statistics on the population and will also focus on one specific topic - for this report the topic is fertility and, in particular, the impact of migration on fertility, but different topics will be covered in future years. The reports will also highlight the key strands of work being taken forward within the National Statistics Centre for Demography in order to improve UK population statistics. More detailed information on the populations of Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland are available in the annual demographic reports produced by the respective devolved administrations.'     

The Researcher as Change Agent

This paper examines the challenges facing researchers working on projects with industry. There has been considerable previous investigation into the need for academic research to have more impact, particularly for industry. Community action research (CAR) examines how practitioners, consultants, and researchers can work together to create new knowledge. However, research has shown that CAR is difficult due to fragmentation within the knowledge creating system. This paper examines how fragmentation can occur from the experience of a researcher working on a large-scale longitudinal change project over three and a half years. The results identify ten lessons learned and five recommendations for improving the capacity of researchers to have impact as change agents within a CAR group.     

Estimates of the population by ethnic group for areas within England

This article describes, and provides some initial analysis of, the experimental population estimates by ethnic group for areas within England published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) in January 2006. The article considers growth and the population structure of each of the ethnic groups identified in the 2001 Census; subnational patterns of change; population turnover; and measures of diversity and segregation, and also provides a comparison of the estimates and corresponding sample-based estimates from the Labour Force Survey.     

Teenage births to ethnic minority women

This article analyses British age-specific fertility rates by ethnic group, with a special interest in child-bearing by women below the age of 20. Birth statistics are not analysed by ethnic group, and teenage birth rates have been estimated from the dates of birth of mothers and children in the Labour Force Survey. The method appears to be robust. Caribbean, Pakistani and especially Bangladeshi women were much more likely to have been teenage mothers than white women, but Indian women were below the national average. Teenage birth rates have been falling in all three South Asian communities.     

Higher qualifications,first-birth timing,and further childbearing in England and Wales

This article examines how strong the association is between the obtaining of higher educational qualifications and later entry to motherhood, and how these are associated with levels and pace of second and subsequent childbearing. Data from the ONS Longitudinal Study are used to estimate these associations for women born in England and Wales between 1954 and 1958. Average age of entry to motherhood is found to be five years later for women with higher qualifications than for those without. Increasing age of motherhood is always associated with a lower likelihood of going on to have another child, but the decline with age is less pronounced for women with a higher qualification. Moreover, for any given age of childbearing, mothers with a higher qualification are more likely than those without to have another child, and are more likely to do so quickly.     

Mothers with living children and children with living mothers: the role of fertility and mortality in the period 1911-2050

Whether an individual has one or more surviving children at a given age and/or a surviving parent depends both on fertility (not only number of children, but also timing of childbearing) and mortality. We consider the contribution of changes in mortality and fertility to past and likely future trends on availability of such kin. The proportion of people aged 60 with a mother alive will more than double between those born in 1911 and 1970, and the figure will increase for at least the next 30 years. While there are increasing concerns about the availability of informal care for elderly people from children in the next quarter century or so, in fact we conclude that a higher proportion of elderly people are likely to have a surviving child than for any generation ever born in Britain, and will have more than any foreseeable future cohort.     

泊松信息披露与具有关联违约风险的债券定价

在信息非完全的情形下研究了简约化模型中具有关联违约风险的债券定价问题,假设关于初级公司是否违约的信息披露服从泊松过程,得到了5种参数情况下次级公司零息票债券价格公式.分析表明,当信息流的到达率趋于零时,初级公司是否违约对次级公司没有影响;当信息流的到达率趋于无穷时,定价公式类似于完全信息情形;同时讨论了不同情形下信息披露和关联违约对公司债券定价的影响.最后通过具体的计算实例,进一步揭示了信息流的到达率对次级公司债券价格的影响.     

国外最终需求对我国碳排放的诱发效应:基于中间品贸易渠道的考察

考虑到中间品贸易带来的复杂国际分工特征,本文构建全球区域间投入产出模型考察了1996-2009年各国最终需求通过直接途径和间接途径对我国碳排放的诱发量和诱发系数,并对整体诱发量变化区分生产端和需求端的五类影响因素变动进行了分时段分国别的结构分解分析.研究发现:国外最终需求通过中间品贸易渠道而间接诱发的中国碳排放越来越大,且欧美和东亚国家最终需求有不同特征的诱发效应.期间,可反映生产环节和消费环节中间品贸易隐含碳的经济技术效应和国外最终需求结构效应是整个诱发量变动的最大推手.分国别看欧盟和美国的贡献最大,分阶段看入世后各效应变化更为显著.     

应用支持向量机预测公交车运行时间

采用一种新颖的神经网络-支持向量机(SVM),来预测公交车的到站时间,其目的是要验证SVM在运行时间预测领域的可行性.该模型采用了时间段、天气、路段以及当前路段的运行时间和下一路段的最新运行时间5个输入变量.最后,应用大连市开发区4路公交线对该模型进行了校验,并得到若干结论.     

1998-based national population projections for the United Kingdom and constituent countries

The 1998-based national population projections, carried out by the Government Actuary in consultation with the Registrars General, show the population of the United Kingdom rising from 59.2 million in 1998 to over 63.5 million by 2021. Longer-term projections suggest the population will peak around 2036 and then gradually start to fall. The population will become gradually older with the median age expected to rise from 36.9 years in 1998 to nearly 42 years by 2021. In 1998, there were 1.4 million (13 per cent) more children aged under 16, than people of pensionable age. However, by 2008, the population of pensionable age is projected to exceed the number of children.     

Social inequalities in later life: the socio-economic position of older people from ethnic minority groups in Britain

There are now nearly a quarter of a million individuals aged 60 years or over belonging to ethnic minority groups living in Britain. As the ethnic minority groups in Britain continue to age, information regarding their circumstances in later life will be of increasing importance for the development of appropriate services and policy. This article uses data from the General Household Survey (1991-96) to investigate the household living arrangements, lifestyle, socio-economic status, economic resources and experience of multiple deprivation in later life amongst older people from ethnic minority groups in Britain. The findings indicate that there are significant differences both between and within ethnic minority groups in access to material and social resources, which need to be taken into account by policy makers and planners.     

2002-based national population projections for the United Kingdom and constituent countries

The 2002-based national population projections, carried out by the Government Actuary in consultation with the Registrars General, show the population of the United Kingdom rising from 59.2 million in 2002 to nearly 65 million by 2031. Longer-term projections suggest the population will peak around 2050 at over 65 million and then gradually start to fall. The population will become gradually older with the median age expected to rise from 38.2 years in 2002 to 43.3 years by 2031. In 2002, there were around 850 thousand (8 per cent) more children aged under 16, than people of state pensionable age. However, from 2007, the population of pensionable age is projected to exceed the number of children.     

印度洋黄鳍金枪鱼渔业资源开发策略评价

运用单位补充量模型和Schaefer剩余产量模型,对印度洋黄鳍金枪鱼渔业的开发策略进行了评价。单位补充量模型指示的生物学参考点Fmax、F0.1、F20％SPR、F40％SPR分别为0．76、0．44、0．56、0．32,相应的产量控制参考值分别为36．7万t、34．6万t、36．1万t和34．2万t。随着捕捞死亡系数增加,未来10a的相对渔获量将逐渐增加,但相对剩余亲体量却逐渐下降。捕捞死亡系数控制在0．3以内,未来10a内相对剩余亲体量下降20％以下的概率将低于10％;捕捞死亡系数在0．6以上时,发生该事件的概率达到90％以上。当总许可捕捞产量分别为30万t、35万t、40万t和45万t时,未来10a内的黄鳍金枪鱼资源量将分别呈增长、稳定、缓慢下降和快速下降趋势。从模拟的结果来看,应把捕捞死亡系数降低到0．5以下、总产量控制在35万t以内,才能保证渔业产量的长期稳定。图2,表4,参27。     

2000-based national population projections for the United Kingdom and its constituent countries

The 2000-based national population projections, carried out by the Government Actuary at the request of the Registrars General, show the population of the United Kingdom rising from 59.8 million in 2000 to nearly 65 million by 2025. Longer-term projections suggest the population will peak at nearly 66 million around 2040 and then gradually start to fall. The population will become gradually older with the median age expected to rise from 37.4 years in 2000 to 42.4 years by 2025. In 2000, there were 1.3 million (12 per cent) more children aged under 16, than people of state pensionable age. However, by 2007, the population of state pensionable age is projected to exceed the number of children.     

Interim 2003-based national population projections for the United Kingdom and constituent countries

The 2003-based national population projections, carried out by the Government Actuary in consultation with the Registrars General, and using essentially the same underlying assumptions as for the previous 2002-based projections, show the population of the United Kingdom rising from 59.6 million in 2003, passing 60 million during 2005, to reach 65.7 million by 2031. Longer-term projections suggest the population will peak around 2050 at nearly 67 million and then very gradually start to fall. The population will become older with the median age expected to rise from 38.4 years in 2003 to 43.3 years by 2031. In 2003, there were around 700 thousand (six per cent) more children aged under 16, than people of state pensionable age. However, from 2007, the population of pensionable age is projected to exceed the number of children.     

基于外部环境视角下的我国中小企业生命周期<SPAN style=

在研究我国中小企业生命周期现象的基础上,基于深圳、广州、长沙、郑州、成都等五城市在2000-2007年间注销的中小企业数据信息,对五城市中小企业生命周期与中小企业外部环境的关系展开评价和比较分析,揭示了中小企业生命周期与其外部环境的关系与内在机理,并分别从政府与企业的角度提出如何延长我国中小企业生命周期的相关对策建议.     

Life Cycle of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises Based on External Environmental Perspective—Empirical Research that Takes 5 Metropolises Including Shenzhen as Samples

Based on the research of small and medium-sized enterprises' life cycle, plus the data and the information that acquired from cancelled small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Changsha, Zhengzhou, Chengdu five metropolises during 2000-2007 period, this paper evaluated and comparatively analyzed the relation between the life cycle of SMEs in the five metropolises and the external environment that SMEs sit in, revealed the relation and the internal mechanism of SMEs and their external environmental situation. Further more, the countermeasures how to prolong the life cycle of SMEs in our country is proposed from perspective both of government and corporation.     

The feasibility of making short-term migration estimates

Short-term migration, that is stays of less than 12 months, has received particular attention recently from both national and local level users of population statistics. This interest is part of the wider interest shown in increasing levels of long-term migration statistics in recent years. This article is an initial assessment by ONS of the potential to produce short-term migration estimates for England and Wales, and the challenges faced in doing so. Central to these challenges is the question of how short-term migration should be defined. In addition, illustrative estimates of short-term migration based on the International Passenger Survey (IPS) are provided. These illustrative estimates, along with associated standard errors, are provided at both national and regional levels using a number of definitional bases.     

New estimates of trends in births by birth order in England and Wales

A greater understanding of past, present and future trends in fertility can be gained from analysing trends in birth order; that is whether a birth is a first, second, third or higher order birth. However, under current legislation, birth order information is not collected at registration for births outside marriage and birth order recorded within marriage is not the true birth order. This article presents revised and updated estimates of true birth order. It discusses the construction of the new estimates and presents analysis relating the births by true birth order to the population of women by parity on both a period (fertility in a particular year) and cohort (fertility of women born in a particular year) basis. The new true birth order figures are also compared to the previous set of estimates.