Using administrative data sources in the estimation of emigration

It is important that migration is measured accurately, for example to inform population estimates and projections. However, current sources of information present challenges in producing robust estimates of emigration from Great Britain. This article reports on work carried out by the Office for National Statistics to investigate the potential for using administrative data sources to contribute to the measurement of emigration.     

The sizes and characteristics of the minority ethnic populations of Great Britain--latest estimates

This article presents estimates of the minority ethnic populations of Great Britain in 2000 and describes the regional distributions of the different groups. It also discusses changes in the sizes of the different minority ethnic populations during the 1990s. The paper provides information on some key demographic features of these populations at the end of the 1990s--age and sex structures, proportions born in the United Kingdom and whether children lived with their natural parents.     

Changing economic and social roles: the experience of four cohorts of mid-life individuals in Britain, 1985-2000

Men and women in Great Britain are increasingly involved in a variety of economic and social roles, particularly during their mid-life period. This article examines the changes in role occupancy across four birth cohorts passing throughout mid-life over the period 1985-2000. Data from the General Household Survey is used to investigate the occupancy of four key roles: 'partner', 'parent', 'carer' and 'paid worker', analyzing separate and multiple role occupancies and level of commitment to a particular role. The implications of the findings for health and employment policies is also discussed.     

One-parent families--and the dependent children living in them--in Great Britain

This article provides updated final estimates of the number of one-parent families, and of the number of dependent children living in them, from 1995 to 1997, inclusive, together with provisional estimates for 1998 to 2000. The existing methodology has been extended so that additional alternative estimates have been generated from which to assess the "best estimates". The number of one-parent families in Great Britain is provisionally estimated at 1.75 million in 2000, and the number of deppendent children living in those families as 2.9 million.     

Social inequalities in later life: the socio-economic position of older people from ethnic minority groups in Britain

There are now nearly a quarter of a million individuals aged 60 years or over belonging to ethnic minority groups living in Britain. As the ethnic minority groups in Britain continue to age, information regarding their circumstances in later life will be of increasing importance for the development of appropriate services and policy. This article uses data from the General Household Survey (1991-96) to investigate the household living arrangements, lifestyle, socio-economic status, economic resources and experience of multiple deprivation in later life amongst older people from ethnic minority groups in Britain. The findings indicate that there are significant differences both between and within ethnic minority groups in access to material and social resources, which need to be taken into account by policy makers and planners.     

Geographic variations in conceptions to women aged under 18 in Great Britain during the 1990s

This article examines geographic variations in conceptions to women aged under 18. It presents data on conception rates and the percentage leading to abortion for the three countries of Great Britain, the Government Office Regions of England and local authorities within Great Britain. It provides an overview of variations between areas at each of the three geographic levels and examines whether this variation is associated with the social and demographic characteristics of local authority areas. This article is the first occasion on which conception rates for Scotland have been published on a comparable basis to England and Wales and also the first use of the revised ONS classification to examine conceptions to women aged under 18.     

The decline of intensive intergenerational care of older people in Great Britain, 1985-1995

There are increasing concerns about the future availability of informal care for older people, particularly care by their children. This article explores past trends in the provision of informal care by children/children-in-law to their older parents/parents-in-law between 1985 and 1995 in Great Britain, using successive General Household Survey data. The article suggests that, during this period, there was a decline in co-resident intergenerational care and that this was associated with a decline in highly intensive intergenerational care. The article explores possible factors underlying these trends, in particular, demographic changes and changes in patterns of formal care for older people.     

The feasibility of making short-term migration estimates

Short-term migration, that is stays of less than 12 months, has received particular attention recently from both national and local level users of population statistics. This interest is part of the wider interest shown in increasing levels of long-term migration statistics in recent years. This article is an initial assessment by ONS of the potential to produce short-term migration estimates for England and Wales, and the challenges faced in doing so. Central to these challenges is the question of how short-term migration should be defined. In addition, illustrative estimates of short-term migration based on the International Passenger Survey (IPS) are provided. These illustrative estimates, along with associated standard errors, are provided at both national and regional levels using a number of definitional bases.     

Immigration, emigration and the ageing of the overseas-born population in the United Kingdom

This article uses data from the 1971 and 2001 Censuses, the 1999-2003 Labour Force Survey and the 1977 to 2002 International Passenger Survey to investigate the migration processes contributing to the age structure and ageing of the UK's overseas-born population. Overall almost half of recent decades' immigrants to the UK emigrate again within five years of arrival, but with large variation by overseas country of birth. Between half and two thirds of the immigrants born in the continental European Union, North America and Oceania emigrate again within five years, while 15 per cent of those born in the Indian subcontinent do so. Significant cumulative emigration more than five years after arrival is seen among earlier immigrants from the Indian subcontinent, the Caribbean Commonwealth and Europe. Large country-of-origin variations in the ratio of pension-age population to working-age population primarily reflect the country composition of immigration streams 30 or more years before.     

The ethnic minority populations of Great Britain--latest estimates

This article looks at the latest estimates of the ethnic minority populations living in private households in Great Britain. It also highlights differences between the various ethnic groups in relation to geographical distribution, sex and age structure, people living alone and people born in the UK.     

Families, groups and clusters of local and health authorities: revised for authorities in 1999

This is the second of two articles describing the revision of The ONS classification of local and health authorities of Great Britain to take account of area changes in the 1990's. It presents local authorities in Great Britain as at April 1999 in terms of Families, Groups and Clusters, based on 37 socio-economic and demographic variables from the 1991 Census. Health authorities are presented in terms of Families and Groups only, based on the same variables. The previous article (in Population Trends 98) presented, for each local and health authority, up to four other authorities to which it is 'most similar'.     

Which authorities are alike?

This article describes the first results from the recent revision to The ONS classification of local and health authorities of Great Britain to allow for boundary changes. For each local and health authority of Great Britain as at April 1999 it presents 'most similar' authorities as measured by a selection of 37 socioeconomic and demographic variables from the 1991 Census. These results will assist local and health authorities in identifying other appropriate authorities for comparative studies. A second article, to be published in Population Trends 99, will present the results of the analysis to identify groups of authorities in a hierarchy of new Clusters, Groups and Families for the revised classification.     

The use of patient registers to estimate migration

This article presents information discussed at the recent regional seminars on population statistics. It describes a new data source for estimating internal migration between local and health authorities in England and Wales, discusses the way that the data have been collected and processed, and how limitations in the raw data have been addressed. It then goes on to explain the way that the new internal migration estimates have been used in the calculation of population estimates for local and health authorities. This is a change to the method of estimating migration in the calculation of population estimates.     

Local marriage markets in Great Britain: how diverse?

Estimates are made of the number of potential marriage partners available for unmarried men and women, by age, in Great Britain in 1991 and how this varies across local districts. The preferences of men and women in relation to partner ages are taken into account in the estimates. Average partner supply declines by age for women and increases with age for men. Marriage markets differ between local areas but the differentiation is not as substantial as in many other aspects of local demography and is a good deal less than the variation that occurs through time. Young women and older men have advantageous marriage markets almost everywhere while young men and older women are at a disadvantage in almost all areas.     

人口迁移导致区域两极分化的动力学分析

为揭示利益驱动下的人口迁移,由人均收入、公共服务资源人均占有量和平均年龄构造一个区域广义势。当某区域广义势高于各区域的平均时,该区域将有迁出者;那些广义势比平均广义势较低的区域将是这些迁出者的迁入区;向不同区域迁入的人则由依赖于两地间广义势之差的迁移概率决定。结果表明,净迁入(迁出)人口随时间指数衰减,迁出(迁入)区总人口、人均收入、公共服务资源人均占有量均呈现近似为指数方式衰减("反指数"方式增长),最后达到三者相互匹配的相对稳定态。信息熵、人口分布与斑图演化均显示一个两极化的有序化过程。     

A new area classification for understanding internal migration in Britain

This article details the development of a new area classification for Britain based on internal migration variables taken from the 2001 Census. An explanation of why general-purpose area classifications already in existence are not ideal for internal migration analysis is provided, before an account of the construction of the new classification is given. The latter involves justification of the choice of variables, explanation of the methodology adopted and presentation of the final typology.     

Short-term international migration trends in England and Wales from 2004 to 2009

Short-term migration estimates for England and Wales are the latest addition to the Office for National Statistics (ONS) migration statistics. This article discusses definitions of short-term migration and the methodology that is used to produce the estimates. Some of the estimates and the changes in the estimates over time are then discussed. The article includes previously unpublished short-term migration statistics and therefore helps to give a more complete picture of the size and characteristics of short-term international migration for England and Wales than has previously been possible. ONS have identified a clear user requirement for short-term migration estimates at local authority (LA) level. Consequently, attention is also paid to the progress that has been made and future work that is planned to distribute England and Wales short-term migration estimates to LA level.     

Family building intentions in England and Wales: trends,outcomes and interpretations

This article presents and analyses women's childbearing intentions collected in the General Household Survey (GHS). Data from the 21 surveys from 1979 to 2001 show that over that period there has been a fall in women's intended numbers of births. However the latest data (from the 1998, 2000 and 2001 surveys) show that the average number of children intended is still around two, somewhat higher than the average number of children current fertility rates suggest women will have. The questions of whether this difference can be interpreted as possible unmet need for children, whether past intentions have been good predictors of fertility, and how current intentions may be used to inform projections assumptions are discussed. In relation to the last question, fertility intentions by ethnic group are also presented.     

New estimates of trends in births by birth order in England and Wales

A greater understanding of past, present and future trends in fertility can be gained from analysing trends in birth order; that is whether a birth is a first, second, third or higher order birth. However, under current legislation, birth order information is not collected at registration for births outside marriage and birth order recorded within marriage is not the true birth order. This article presents revised and updated estimates of true birth order. It discusses the construction of the new estimates and presents analysis relating the births by true birth order to the population of women by parity on both a period (fertility in a particular year) and cohort (fertility of women born in a particular year) basis. The new true birth order figures are also compared to the previous set of estimates.