瑞典国际科技合作的经费投入与配置管理

本文依据最新的调查资料和统计数据，系统地分析了近年来瑞典各主要官方和半官方机构投入国际科技合作的经费总量以及各类国际科技合作计划的经费配置情况，同时，还分析了瑞典组织国际科技合作的管理机制与方法，以及开展国际科技合作的优先领域与国别分布。     

以色列国际科技合作的经费投入与管理机制

本文阐述了国际科技合作对于以色列的科技进步和高技术产业发展所发挥的重要作用，系统分析了以色列政府投入国际科技合作的经费构成以及双边科技合作基金的管理机制，对以色列开发国际科技合作的成功经验进行了总结，并针对我国筹建国际科技合作基金的需要，提出了若干对策建议。     

二战后美国科技政策的演变以及对我国的启示

本文分析了美国二战后科技政策的演变过程，认为可以分为五个阶段。文章介绍了每个阶段美国的科技政策及其背景，研究开发的技术重点，研究开发经费情况，与科技发展有关的重大计划，与科技政策有关的相关法律。重点介绍了美国现政府的科技政策及其对美国经济的影响，最后，文章还就美国科技政策及其演变过程对我国的启示进行了讨论。     

我国及世界科技强国的基础研究经费投入特点与启示

提升基础研究能力是建设世界科技强国的必然要求。本文详细阐述了经费投入对基础研究能力提升的重要性;进而分析了世界科技强国和国内先进省市基础研究投入的特点,包括保持基础研究经费在全社会研发经费中占比较高、建立以政府为主导各类主体参与的多元化投入体系、采取竞争性和稳定性相结合的支持方式、聚焦重大科学问题和重点学科领域集中投入等;最后,提出了加大基础研究投入、提升基础研究水平的几点建议。     

国际研发经费支出规律与现状分析

研发(R＆D)支出水平是国家科技实力比较与未来生产力发展趋势的一个重要指标.以国际上主要国家研发(R&D)支出数据为基础,客观分析了各国研发支出总体水平,R&D总支出占本国GDP比例,非国防研发经费支出水平,非国防研发经费占本国GDP比例等国际科技实力对比的主要参数,尤其分析了美国研发经费的来源与分配以及50年来的经费增长规律.     

高校科技投入与产出的关联模型研究

针对高校科技产出的特点与存在的问题，在分析过去10年高校科技投入和产出的数据的基础上，建立了高校科技投入和产出的多个关联模型，对于分析高校科技投入产出关系，提升高校科技投入产出效率，提供了决策支持。     

浅谈我国加大政府研发投入规模的必要性

本文以部分发达国家和新兴工业化国家为代表，对政府研发投入规模进行了国际比较。政府研发投入是带动整个国家研发投入，增强科技实力与经济增长的重要手段。国际经验表明，政府研发投入的规模决定了一国的科研投入水平，新兴工业化国家在科技追赶阶段，更需要政府投入的研发经费的超速增长。而我国目前政府研发投入的强度很低，与我国的经济实力乃至我国目前的经济社会发展战略很不相称。要实现产业结构的转型，提高政府研发投入强度已是迫在眉睫的任务。     

日本学术振兴会(JSPS)人才培养机制及其学科发展的平衡性

简要介绍了日本学术振兴会（JSPS）在国家科技政策中的重要作用.介绍了JSPS特别研究人员、海外研究人员和JSPS奖三种人才培养机制的人才的选拔方法及其学科分布特点.并基于经费投入比与论文产出比分析了基础研究中的学科发展平衡问题.日本已经认识到了学科发展的不平衡性,并采取措施促进学科的平衡发展.     

人口健康科技发展态势分析

健康科技是提升民众健康水平的重要基础.健康需求的不断提升、政府的支持、产业的推动促进健康科技迅速发展,新理论、新学科、新技术、新突破不断涌现.本文分析了 2019年健康科技的资助和布局重点,总结了健康科技发展的主要趋势和重要进展.从国家战略规划角度看,许多国家都将健康科技设立为科技发展的优先领域,持续投入大量经费.从健...     

我国与主要创新型国家基础研究投入比较研究

本文对中国和美、日、德、法、英、韩、俄七国近20年基础研究投入状况和发展趋势进行比较,发现我国基础研究投入有总量大、增速快的优势,也存在占研发总投入和GDP的比重低、经费来源相对单一、执行结构较为失衡等问题,并针对这些问题提出五点建议:遵循基础研究投入增长规律,紧扣建设社会主义现代化强国的战略安排,稳定增加基础研究投入;大力发挥中央财政资金的引导作用,建立多元化基础研究投入机制;努力发挥不同研发活动主体的优势和特色,构建各有侧重、协调互补的一体化基础研究体系;进一步健全和完善基础研究投入统计工作,详实反映我国基础研究经费投入的真实情况;营造重视基础研究的社会氛围。     

发达国家和新兴工业化国家政府财政研发投入研究

各国政府已经认识到研发(R＆D)投入对国家科技实力和经济发展的重要性，因此，它们不但采取措施刺激产业界和其它部门增加研发投入，而且直接增加用于研发的财政拨款。本文以主要发达国家(美国、日本、德国、法国和英国)和新兴工业化国家韩国的政府研发投入数据为基础，客观分析了近二三十年来各国政府研发投入主要参数的变化规律。主要参数包括：政府研发投入总额，政府研发投入占本国研发经费的比例，政府研发投入占本国国内生产总值的比例，政府研发投入占政府财政支出的比例，政府研发投入的流向。     

The evolutionary history ofDrosophila buzzatii. V. Differential survivorship onOpuntia betweenD. buzzatii andD. serido

Summary Survival time ofDrosophila buzzatii adults on anOpuntia (prickly pear) medium was significantly longer than that of its nearest relativeD. serido. A significant difference was also found betweenD. buzzatii adults from two experimental populations, one of them fed onOpuntia rots for more than two years and another one kept on standardDrosophila medium for the same period of time. These results suggest that adult selection may be taking place in cactiphilicDrosophila in their natural habitats and could be responsible for the niche differentiation betweenD. buzzatii andD. serido.This work has been supported by the Comisión Asesora de investigación Científica y Técnica, Spain, by funds to project 4514/79 awarded to the third author.     

Predicting the Direction of the Fed's Target Rate

Predicting the direction of central banks' target interest rates is important for various market participants. This paper advances procedures for predicting the direction of the federal funds target rate using a dynamic extension of the multinomial logit model. I find that the 6‐month Treasury bill spread relative to the federal funds rate, the unemployment rate and the real GDP growth rate have superior predictive content for the direction of the target a week to several months ahead. When these variables are employed, lagged target changes do not provide additional predictive power. This suggests that the apparent positive serial dependence of the target changes is due to the Fed's systematic response to autocorrelated macroeconomic variables. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The use of monthly indicators to forecast quarterly GDP in the short run: an application to the G7 countries

The delayed release of the National Account data for GDP is an impediment to the early understanding of the economic situation. In the short run, this information gap may be at least partially eliminated by bridge models (BM) which exploit the information content of timely updated monthly indicators. In this paper we examine the forecasting ability of BM for GDP growth in the G7 countries and compare their performance to that of univariate and multivariate statistical benchmark models. We run four alternative one‐quarter‐ahead forecasting experiments to assess BM performance in situations as close as possible to the actual forecasting activity. BM are estimated for GDP both for single countries (USA, Japan, Germany, France, UK, Italy and Canada), and area‐wide (G7, European Union, and Euro area). BM forecasting ability is always superior to that of benchmark models, provided that at least some monthly indicator data are available over the forecasting horizon. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

研究开发的全球化

继贸易全球化、生产全球化之后，研究开发全球化已经成为经济一体化的重要趋势。本文分析了研究开发全球化的背景、动机及主要方式，并介绍了日本、韩国在美国的研究开发及国外企业在华研究开发的情况。在此基础上，对我国企业“走出去”提出了一些建议。     

Mortality effects of economic fluctuations in selected eurozone countries

Socioeconomic status is commonly conceptualized as the social standing or well‐being of an individual or society. Higher socioeconomic status has long been identified as a contributing factor for mortality improvement. This paper studies the impact of macroeconomic fluctuations (having gross domestic product (GDP) as a proxy) on mortality for the nine most populous eurozone countries. Based on the statistical analysis between the time‐dependent indicator of the Lee and Carter (Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1992, 87(419), 659–671) model and GDP, and adaptation of the good features of the O'Hare and Li (Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 2012, 50, 12–25) model, a new mortality model including this additional economic‐related factor is proposed. Results for male and female from ages between 0 and 89, and similar for unisex data, are provided. This new model shows a better fitting and more plausible forecast among a significant number of eurozone countries. An in‐depth analysis of our findings is provided to give a better understanding of the relationship between mortality and GDP fluctuations.     

我国高校科研态势与科研体制改革对策

我国高校科研在全国科研体系中占有重要地位,同时在科研评价导向、协作机制、科研经费管理、大学功能与创新文化等方面存在不利于科研质量提升的问题。本文分析提出了为实现高校科技创新而应当采取的科研体制改革对策,主要包括：明晰高校新的功能定位;改进科研评价体系;加强高校内外的资源互补性合作;建立科研项目间接经费补偿机制;培育大学精神与创新文化。     

Integrating Quarterly Data into a Dynamic Factor Model of US Monthly GDP

This paper develops and estimates a dynamic factor model in which estimates for unobserved monthly US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are consistent with observed quarterly data. In contrast to existing approaches, the quarterly averages of our monthly estimates are exactly equal to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) quarterly estimates. The relationship between our monthly estimates and the quarterly data is therefore the same as the relationship between quarterly and annual data. The study makes use of Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo and data augmentation techniques to simulate values for the logarithms on monthly US GDP. The imposition of the exact linear quarterly constraint produces a non‐standard distribution, necessitating the implementation of a Metropolis simulation step in the estimation. Our methodology can be easily generalized to cases where the variable of interest is monthly GDP and in such a way that the final results incorporate the statistical uncertainty associated with the monthly GDP estimates. We provide an example by incorporating our monthly estimates into a Markov switching model of the US business cycle. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Composition and novel pattern of emission of defensive scent oils in the larva of the contton seed bugOxycarenus hyalinipennis (Costa) (Heteroptera: Lygaeidae)

Summary differences in composition and pattern of eiission in the scent oils from the two abdominal scent glands in the larva ofOxycarenus hyalinipennis are reported. The scent oils contain hex-2-enal, oct-2-enal, dec-2-enal and 4-oxo-oct-2-enal.We thank D. E. Games for access to mass spectral facilities, M. Rossiter for recording the mass spectra, the Bayero University Higher Degrees Committee for providing funds to T. O. Olagbemiro and PPF International for supply of sample materials.