SARS研究进展

本文对SARS病原学、流行病学、预防和治疗的研究进展进行了综述。     

代谢综合征的流行病学调查与分析

目的：了解20岁以上成年人代谢综合征的发生率；对比分析其相关的危险因素及保护因素。方法：(1)通过1026名20岁以上成人体检，应用修订的代谢综合征的美国诊断标准，凡具备以下5项标准中3项及3项以上，即①体质指数(BMI)≥24，②甘油三酯ρ(TG)≥150mg／dL，③高密度脂蛋白胆固醇ρ(HDL—C)男＜40mg／dL、ρ(HDL—C)女＜50mg／dL，④空腹血糖ρ(FBC)≥110mg／dL，⑤收缩期血压(SBP)≥130mmHg或舒张期血压(DBP)≥85mmHg或SBP／DBP≥130mmHg／85mmHg(1mmHg＝0．133kPa)，诊断为代谢综合征，共检出136名为病例组。(2)从既往无高血压、糖尿病、冠心病及血脂异常史，且本次筛检未纳入代谢综合征的人群中，抽取与病例组性别、年龄相当的136名进行配对调查分析，计算其相关因素的χ^2值、P值、机会比(OR)值，以及机会比值的95％可信限(OR 95％CI)。结果：(1)从1026名中共检出代谢综合征136名，其发生率为13．26％；(2)调查分析发现摄入过量和长时间处于坐位而又缺乏运动两项可能为代谢综合征的危险因素；而运动可能是代谢综合征的保护因素。结论：(1)本次广东地区部分人群筛查20岁以上成人代谢综合征的发生率为13．26％，虽较美国人为低，但中年组为17．48％，老年组高达29．27％，必须引起重视；(2)坚持终身运动和合理膳食可能是预防代谢综合征的切实可行、经济、有效的措施。     

运动性猝死研究综述

应用文献资料法,对运动性猝死的流行病学和病因学特征进行了探讨和分析。运动性猝死发生率虽低,但发展迅速,其发生与运动项目、运动强度之间没有明显关系,多发在30-60岁,男性多于女性。运动性猝死大多为心源性猝死和脑性猝死,其中冠状动脉粥样硬化是运动性猝死的主要原因。对运动性猝死发生的可能机制进行了探讨并提出了预防措施。     

具有种群动力学和非线性接触率的SIRS流行病模型

建立易感染类中具有 L ogistic种群增长和非线性接触率的 SIRS流行病模型 ;分析该模型的正不变集和平衡位置的存在性 ,研究了疾病消除平衡位置和地方病平衡位置的稳定性 ,最后给出一些数值模拟结果     

The outbreak pattern of the SARS cases in Asia

The severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) caused tremendous damage to many Asia countries, especially China. The transmission process and outbreak pattern of SARS is still not well understood. This study aims to find a simple model to describe the outbreak pattern of SARS cases by using SARS case data commonly released by governments. The outbreak pattern of cumulative SARS cases is expected to be a logistic type because the infection will be slowed down due to the increasing control effort by people and/or due to depletion of susceptible individuals. The increase rate of SARS cases is expected to decrease with the cumulative SARS cases, as described by the traditional logistical model, which is widely used in population dynamic studies. The instantaneous rate of increases were significantly and negatively correlated with the cumulative SARS cases in mainland of China (including Beijing, Hebei, Tianjin, Shanxi,the Autonomous Region of Inner Mongolia) and Singapore. The basic reproduction number R0 in Asia ranged from 2.0 to 5.6 (except for Taiwan, China). The R0 of Hebei and Tianjin were much higher than that of Singapore, Hongkong, Beijing, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, indicating SARS virus might have originated differently or new mutations occurred during transmission. We demonstrated that the outbreaks of SARS in many regions of Asia were wall described by the logistic model, and the control measures implemented by governments are effective. The maximum instantaneous rate of increase, basic reproductive number, and maximum cumulative SARS cases were also calculated by using the logistic model.     

Molecular epidemiology and evolution of worldwide enterovirus 71 strains isolated from 1970 to 2004

Human enterovirus 71 （EV71） is one of the major etiological agents of the hand-foot-and-mouth disease （HFMD） that often causes severe neurological complications. Recently, its outbreaks mainly take place in the torrid zone of the Asia-Pacific region. To study the evolution and genetic variability, we collected 532 EV71 strains with almost complete or complete VP1 sequences （891 nt） isolated worldwide from 1970 to 2004. The pairwise homologies and genetic distances were analyzed. Most strains belong to previously identified genotype B and C. However, a unique strain R13223-1ND-01 appears not to fall into current three genotypes （A, B and C）, and probably represents a new genotype D. Some orphan strains were observed in the genotypes B and C, and their significance in the EV71 evolution was discussed. Moreover, there is a significant co-variance of 6 discrete positions on VP1 （amino acid 43, 58, 164, 184, 240 and 249）. This high co-variability is tightly related with the subgenotypes.     

鸭致病性大肠杆菌中耶尔森菌强毒力岛的分子流行病学调查

为了解耶尔森菌强毒力岛(HPI)在鸭致病性大肠杆菌中的流行情况,根据HPI结构基因irp2和fyuA参考序列设计了引物,用PCR方法对从成都等地分离的64株鸭致病性大肠杆菌和28株健康雏鸭泄殖腔拭子分离的大肠杆菌基因进行了扩增和检测,并对5个菌株相关基因进行了克隆和序列分析.结果表明,irp2和fyuA携带率在鸭大肠杆菌病分离株分别为40.6%(26/64)和39.1%(25/64),在健康鸭泄殖腔大肠杆菌分离株分别25.0%(7/28)和21.4%(6/28).鸭大肠杆菌病分离株携带fyuA和irp2的阳性率显著高于健康鸭大肠杆菌分离株(P<0.05),HPI毒力岛的携带率与菌株的致病性呈明显的正相关.分析表明相关基因与GenBank中参考序列的同源性高达98%以上.     

复杂网络理论在互联网病毒传播研究中的应用

为了更好地应对互联网上计算机病毒肆虐这一严峻形势，制定出相应的策略，有必要对互联网上计算机病毒的传播作深入的研究。本文综述了近几年复杂网络理论在互联网病毒传播研究中的应用。首先介绍了互联网的结构特征，然后从临界值的角度介绍了计算机病毒在不同拓扑结构网络中的传播性质，讨论了相应的免疫机制，并对电子邮件病毒的传播行为进行了系统分析。研究表明，互联网络拓扑结构对计算机病毒的传播行为有着重要的影响。