山西省重点实验室评估政策研究

省重点实验室是地方科技创新平台的重要组成部分,发挥着为地方集聚人才、提升基础研究和应用基础研究能力的重要作用,重点实验室评估政策的制定和实施应以推动实验室提质增效、发挥科技创新平台效用为基础.在阐述实验室体系、评估意义及重点实验室定位、作用的基础上,结合国内外考核评估相关政策、山西省现有实验室建设情况,提出了山西省重点实验室评估政策的建议.     

融媒体环境下的受众计算:途径与挑战

融媒体改革是传统媒体应对传媒经济平台化和传媒平台智能化浪潮的一项重要措施.传统机构在融媒体环境中利用数据驱动的计算传播学方法“重新”认识受众、量化传播效果,既是时代的必然,又是时代的需要.本文论述融媒体环境中受众计算的“为什么”和“怎么做”问题,将受众分析分解为三个纵向数据维度(文本、网络和时空数据)和两个横向方法维度(统计分析和机器学习).最后,我们着重讨论融媒体受众计算所面临的困难和挑战,并提出可能的解决方案.     

小行星35633和135356的历表研制及密近交会前后的轨道演化

在已知(349)Dembowska高精度质量的情况下,通过考虑密近交会改进了小行星35633和135356的历表.本文由蒙特卡罗方法给出了改进历表的不确定度,并利用姚安高精度望远镜的观测数据验证了历表改进的可靠性.与未考虑密近交会因素的JPL历表比较的结果表明,两种轨道之间瞬时根数的差值在密近交会时刻附近快速变化,这体现了(349)Dembowska在交会中对天体轨道演化的影响.尽管这种影响在一定时间内并不会产生显著的观测效应,但在历表研制中不予以考虑会显著降低外推历表位置的精度.     

原位孔内剪切试验在路基边坡支护设计中的应用

为了对边坡的合理设计提供严密的参考依据,采用原位孔内剪切试验测试了某路基边坡填土的抗剪强度,对不同工况下的边坡支护效果开展数值模拟分析.结果表明,该路基边坡填土压实质量欠佳,呈现轻微的应变硬化特征,其内摩擦角为24°,黏聚力为12 kPa.采用桩基托梁挡墙支护后,边坡最大横向位移可以降低76.5％～84.5％,且随着桩长的增加,边坡变形逐渐减小,但减小幅度呈下降趋势;边坡全局应变水平相比支护前也有所减小,局部最大剪应变明显降低,滑弧特征被削弱.因此,可采用原位孔内剪切试验较为准确地获取边坡填土的强度参数,使得边坡支护设计更合理.     

De Casteljau Algorithm and Degree Elevation of Toric Surface Patches

De Casteljau algorithm and degree elevation of Bézier and NURBS curves/surfaces are two important techniques in computer aided geometric design. This paper presents the de Casteljau algorithm and degree elevation of toric surface patches, which include tensor product and triangular rational Bézier surfaces as special cases. Some representative examples of toric surface patches with common shapes are illustrated to verify these two algorithms. Moreover, the authors also apply the degree elevation of toric surface patches to isogeometric analysis. And two more examples show the effectiveness of proposed method.     

融媒体背景下传统民营科技型企业的互联网转型:协同进化视角

借助隐喻手段,基于融媒体发展背景,以协同进化为理论依据,剖析传统民营科技型企业的互联网转型过程,总结机理与路径,提出协同进化式转型的理论模型.以千城智联(上海)网络科技有限公司为案例企业,分析其与地方电视台的协同进化过程,研究发现:①基因改变意味着组织认知模式的变化,具体表现是互联网思维的建立以及从单式思维到链式思维的转变;②协同进化基本路径为企业基因改变→企业行为转变→合作方基因改变→合作方行为转变→企业与合作方性状变化;③协同进化的标志是生态位改变,后者由协同关系的转变来衡量,分别经历了买卖关系、资源共享关系、价值共创与共享关系三种状态;④协同关系的演进激发平台网络效应的形成.     

Methods for backcasting,nowcasting and forecasting using factor‐MIDAS: With an application to Korean GDP

We utilize mixed‐frequency factor‐MIDAS models for the purpose of carrying out backcasting, nowcasting, and forecasting experiments using real‐time data. We also introduce a new real‐time Korean GDP dataset, which is the focus of our experiments. The methodology that we utilize involves first estimating common latent factors (i.e., diffusion indices) from 190 monthly macroeconomic and financial series using various estimation strategies. These factors are then included, along with standard variables measured at multiple different frequencies, in various factor‐MIDAS prediction models. Our key empirical findings as follows. (i) When using real‐time data, factor‐MIDAS prediction models outperform various linear benchmark models. Interestingly, the “MSFE‐best” MIDAS models contain no autoregressive (AR) lag terms when backcasting and nowcasting. AR terms only begin to play a role in “true” forecasting contexts. (ii) Models that utilize only one or two factors are “MSFE‐best” at all forecasting horizons, but not at any backcasting and nowcasting horizons. In these latter contexts, much more heavily parametrized models with many factors are preferred. (iii) Real‐time data are crucial for forecasting Korean gross domestic product, and the use of “first available” versus “most recent” data “strongly” affects model selection and performance. (iv) Recursively estimated models are almost always “MSFE‐best,” and models estimated using autoregressive interpolation dominate those estimated using other interpolation methods. (v) Factors estimated using recursive principal component estimation methods have more predictive content than those estimated using a variety of other (more sophisticated) approaches. This result is particularly prevalent for our “MSFE‐best” factor‐MIDAS models, across virtually all forecast horizons, estimation schemes, and data vintages that are analyzed.     

Attack and Defense Strategies in Complex Networks Based on Game Theory

To investigate the attack and defense strategies in complex networks, the authors propose a two-player zero-sum static game model with complete information which considers attack and defense strategies simultaneously. The authors assume that both the attacker and defender have two typical strategies: Targeted strategy and random strategy. The authors explore the Nash equilibriums of the attacker-defender game and demonstrate that when the attacker's attack resources are not so significantly abundant as the defender's resources, there exists a pure-strategy Nash equilibrium in both model networks and real-world networks, in which the defender protects the hub targets with large degrees preferentially, while the attacker prefers selecting the targets randomly. When the attack resources are much higher than defense resources, both the attacker and the defender adopt the targeted strategy in equilibriums. This paper provides a new theoretical framework for the study of attack and defense strategies in complex networks.     

中国式过马路治理数学模型

基于对"中国式过马路"问题的调研数据,运用波利亚安全模型原理,建立适合我国国情的治理"中国式过马路"陋习的数学模型,为交通管理部门这方面的治理提供了理论依据.