独蒜兰优质种苗快速培育研究

建立独蒜兰优质种苗快繁体系,为实现独蒜兰植物工业化育苗、保护野生植物资源和发展人工育种技术提供新的途径.本研究从不同基本培养基对独蒜兰种子萌发影响、丛生芽诱导增殖培养和无根苗生根壮苗等方面开展研究.筛选出影响独蒜兰种子萌发的最佳基本培养基为B5,培养30 d统计种子萌发率为92％;丛生芽诱导增殖的最佳培养基为B5+TDZ 2.0 mg/L+KT 0.5 mg/L+200.0 mg/L肌醇+2.0 g/L活性炭+20.0 g/L蔗糖,培养60 d丛生芽率诱导率为98.00％,平均产生丛生芽数为6.80个;最佳生根壮苗培养基为1/2MS+IBA 0.2 mg/L+6-BA 0.1 mg/L+2.0 g/L活性炭+30.0 g/L土豆泥+20.0 g/L蔗糖,培养60 d后统计生根率为100％,平均生根数为3.20条,平均鲜重为21.11 g.     

A New Method of Portfolio Optimization Under Cumulative Prospect Theory

In this paper,the portfolio selection problem under Cumulative Prospect Theory(CPT) is investigated and a model of portfolio optimization is presented.This model is solved by coupling scenario generation techniques with a genetic algorithm.Moreover,an Adaptive Real-Coded Genetic Algorithm(ARCGA) is developed to find the optimal solution for the proposed model.Computational results show that the proposed method solves the portfolio selection model and that ARCGA is an effective and stable algorithm.We compare the portfolio choices of CPT investors based on various bootstrap techniques for scenario generation and empirically examine the effect of reference points on investment behavior.     

A Novel Routing Method for Social Delay-Tolerant Networks

The lack of continuous connectivity and a complete path from source to destination makes node communication quite difficult in Delay-Tolerant Networks(DTNs). Most studies focus on routing problems in idealized network environments without considering social properties. Communication devices are carried by individuals in many DTNs; therefore, DTNs are unique social networks to some extent. To design efficient routing protocols for DTNs, it is important to analyze their social properties. In this paper, a more accurate and comprehensive metric for detecting the quality of the relationships between nodes is proposed, by considering the contact time, contact frequency, and contact regularity. An overlapping hierarchical community detection method is designed based on this new metric, and a tree structure is built. Furthermore, we exploit the overlapping community structure and the tree structure to provide message-forwarding paths from the source node to the destination node.The simulation results show that our Routing method based on Overlapping hierarchical Community Detection(ROCD) achieves better delivery rate than SimBet and Bubble Rap, the classic routing protocols, without affecting the average delay.     

统一碳税和差异化碳税下的再制造绩效评价

分别在无碳税、统一碳税和差异化碳税三种政策下,构建了垄断制造商的利润最大化决策模型,研究实施不同碳税政策对制造商的再制造生产决策、碳排放和社会福利的影响.研究表明:相比于无碳税政策,政府征收碳税减少了制造商的利润和碳排放,在一定条件下有利于提高社会福利;实施碳税政策有利于鼓励更多类型的制造商参与再制造,并且差异化碳税比统一碳税具有更大的灵活性.进一步地,结合理论比较和数值试验,研究了政府在统一碳税的基础上分别做单向和双向差异化碳税调整后的绩效变化情况,结论表明:统一碳税与差异化碳税不存在绝对占优的碳税形式.政府应根据再制造品特点、单位环境污染损失、统一碳税基准水平和调整幅度等特点,采取合理的碳税调整方式以优化社会福利.     

2021年经济景气形势监测、分析和预测

我国经济增长在遭遇前所未有的疫情冲击后进入为期一年的超常快速扩张期，并于2021年2月形成扩张高峰，此后转入经济周期收缩阶段。2020年11月至2021年7月经济运行已恢复至“正常”景气区间，但需求端的恢复弱于供给端。2021年3季度的综合警情指数明显下滑，发出“偏冷”预警信号，且4季度可能继续下行,但物价总体保持稳定。预计全年GDP增长8.1%左右（两年平均增长5.2%左右），全年CPI上涨0.9%左右。建议宏观调控应做好跨周期设计，注意处理好稳增长、防风险和节能环保的关系，提高疫情应对的精准性，适度加大稳增长力度，努力保持经济在合理区间的平稳运行。     

基于Kramers Kronig关系的油纸绝缘直流电导计算方法

针对区分介电谱中电导和极化过程的方法较为缺乏,等效模型中表征电导的参数唯一性计算方法不足的问题.以油纸绝缘介质的电导过程为研究对象,在实验条件下制备不同水分含量的油纸绝缘样品,并测量频域响应谱线.基于Kramers-Kronig关系对测量复极化率实部谱线进行数值积分,获得弛豫损耗谱线,进而得到电导损耗谱线;并使用最小二乘法对电导损耗谱线进行拟合,计算出电导值.研究结果表明,使用Kramers-Kronig变换可以从测量复极化率虚部谱线中有效分离弛豫损耗谱线和电导损耗谱线,进而得到直流电导值;随着油纸绝缘样品含水率增加,介电谱的损耗峰特征逐渐消失,电导过程增强.     

基于观点动力学的水库移民文化适应机制研究

从观点动力学的全新视角出发,首先厘清非自愿移民文化适应概念框架,然后据此构建出“社会心理建模+复杂网络分析+多Agent仿真”的文化演化计算模型,最后通过模拟实验量化分析了水库移民文化适应的影响因素和发生机制。结果表明:移民身份认同中的文化容忍度和易感性能加速文化适应进程;扩大移民在安置区的社交范围和精英移民的引导,能辅助其与原住民间的文化交互;政策满意度比文化环境的营造更为重要,能通过调节文化冲击方式来改变移民文化观念的更替速率,进而影响移民文化适应过程的平稳性与极化趋势。     

Variable Selection via Generalized SELO-Penalized Cox Regression Models

The seamless-L_0(SELO) penalty is a smooth function that very closely resembles the L_0 penalty, which has been demonstrated theoretically and practically to be effective in nonconvex penalization for variable selection. In this paper, the authors first generalize the SELO penalty to a class of penalties retaining good features of SELO, and then develop variable selection and parameter estimation in Cox models using the proposed generalized SELO(GSELO) penalized log partial likelihood(PPL) approach. The authors show that the GSELO-PPL procedure possesses the oracle property with a diverging number of predictors under certain mild, interpretable regularity conditions. The entire path of GSELO-PPL estimates can be efficiently computed through a smoothing quasi-Newton(SQN) with continuation algorithm. The authors propose a consistent modified BIC(MBIC) tuning parameter selector for GSELO-PPL, and show that under some regularity conditions, the GSELOPPL-MBIC procedure consistently identifies the true model. Simulation studies and real data analysis are conducted to evaluate the finite sample performance of the proposed method.     

Post李超代数结构的性质

通过post李超代数的定义, 讨论post李超代数结构的基本性质, 给出post李超代数的一些存在性结果, 并利用post李超代数可构造LR超代数和左对称超代数, 给出交换post李超代数结构的相关结果.     

基于积分分离式PID控制的耕深调节系统研究

耕作过程中保持耕深稳定是提高耕作质量的重要措施之一.以小型耕耘机的后悬挂旋耕部件为研究对象,提出了一种基于积分分离式PID控制的耕深自动测量和调节的系统,采用双倾角传感器检测耕深,消除了田块自身与绝对水平面倾角的误差影响,通过在误差信号的处理中使用积分分离式PID控制算法,利用Simulink中的SimHydraulic模块对耕深控制系统进行动态仿真研究,与未加入PID控制算法时的仿真结果进行比较,发现几乎消除了系统的耕深超调现象.同时,将响应时间由4.0s左右缩短到1.4s左右,使耕深控制系统的动态响应达到较好的效果.田间试验结果表明,当耕深设定为10cm和16cm时,实测耕深稳定性变异系数分别为6.05%和3.54%,均低于10%,达到了农业机械作业标准所规定的旋耕作业农艺要求.