Estimating the Willingness-to-Pay for Urban Housing in Chinese Cities

The housing market, an important component of the urban economy, is closely integrated with urban development. Urban development attracts labor inflows which then increase the housing demand in the cities. Urban dwellers’ willingness-to-pay (WTP) for housing, as part of their living costs, depends on their incomes they can earn in the cities and the quality of life (QOL) they want to enjoy. Urban wage growth and quality of life improvements are always accompanied by increased demand and increased WTP. This ...     

基于非参数方法的土地价格空间分布拟合与分析

为了检验非参数估计方法在地价空间分布研究中的应用,该文基于北京市1993—2004年的土地出让数据,检验非参数估计法在地价估计与预测方面的有效性;同时,从地价的空间分布中分析和描述北京市城市空间结构的特征。结果表明:研究阶段,北京市仍呈现明显的单中心城市结构;非参数估计方法是一种估计和预测地价空间分布的有效方法,可以更形象地描述城市空间结构的特征,并进行城市主次中心的准确识别;基于非参数估计方法的地价空间分布可用于城市土地资产总价值的估算。     

基于非参数估计方法的土地价格空间分布拟合与分析

为了检验非参数估计方法在地价空间分布研究中的应用,该文基于北京市1993—2004年的土地出让数据,检验非参数估计法在地价估计与预测方面的有效性;同时,从地价的空间分布中分析和描述北京市城市空间结构的特征。结果表明:研究阶段,北京市仍呈现明显的单中心城市结构;非参数估计方法是一种估计和预测地价空间分布的有效方法,可以更形象地描述城市空间结构的特征,并进行城市主次中心的准确识别;基于非参数估计方法的地价空间分布可用于城市土地资产总价值的估算。     

中国城市住房保障覆盖范围的算法设计与应用

本文借鉴工程学和统计学领域构造双变量联合分布函数的方法,首先利用家庭收入和人均住房面积的分组数据分别对中国城镇家庭收入和人均住房面积的分布函数进行估计,然后利用Pearson相关系数法构造了家庭收入和人均住房面积的二维联合分布函数,并依此讨论了我国保障性住房体系中准入标准和保障范围之间的关系,对比分析了保障性住房供需端的匹配情况. 整体来看,地方现行的保障房申请条件能够覆盖12%～32%的城市家庭,且各城市间存在较大差异; 将这一保障范围与国家"十二五"期间3600万套保障房建设任务的分配进行对照,可以计算出7大地区中代表性城市的保障性住房的供需比在0.6～1.9之间变动,存在较为显著的供需不匹配现象. 本文在最后还提出了"保障范围无差异曲线"的分析工具.本文的测算方法和分析工具可以为相关政策进一步细化提供决策支持.     

基于居民偏好的城市公共服务综合质量指数构建方法

借助Hedonic住房价格分析所得到的居民对各类公共服务的偏好参数,该文提出了构建公共服务综合质量指数的方法,并将其应用于北京市公共服务的供需匹配分析。首先利用潜能模型量化分析北京市3类典型公共服务设施的空间分布情况,得出分项公共服务质量指数。其次,基于2010年城市家庭调查的北京市大样本数据的家庭及其住房价格信息,定量测算了居民对各类公共服务设施的偏好。最后,构建北京市公共服务综合质量指数,并将该指数与常住人口密度加以对比,分析了北京市主城区129个街道层面的公共服务供需匹配程度。研究发现北京市外围区域、南城和常住人口密集的街道存在着较为严重的公共服务供给不足问题。在南城52个街道中,87%(45个)的供需匹配指数低于全市平均水平(9.05);在人口最为密集的17个街道(常住人口密度大于30 000人/km2)中,仅有5个的供需匹配指数高于全市的平均水平。     

中国风险投资活动的城市与行业扩散机制

风险投资是促进高新技术产业发展的重要力量,对于推动产业升级和经济增长具有重要意义。然而,中国风险资本在城市间和行业间的分布不均衡现象突出,不利于落后地区和行业的发展。该文利用中国风险投资事件的微观数据,通过构建投资决策模型,分析风险资本投资初创企业的影响因素。研究结果表明:风险投资者的行业经验与城市经验、初创企业的发展成熟度、联合投资者的行业经验与城市经验都能够显著提高投资概率;同时,风险投资者经验和被投资企业的成熟度有助于推动风险资本进入新城市和新行业,而联合投资者的经验未能发挥预期作用。     

Determinants of Housing Liquidity in Chinese Cities： Does Market Maturity Matter？

Housing liquidity measures the ability to convert housing to cash as an important characteristic of housing stock. A simple model of buyer offers＇ distributions was used to theoretically explore the determinants of housing liquidity in a search process. An empirical ordinary least squares model of the time-on-market was developed using data collected in four Chinese cities （Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen）. The results show that in these four Chinese cities, market maturity dominates the variation of housing liquidity, with the effects of housing characteristics, seller＇s search cost, search strategy, and market conditions being less significant to the time-on-market equation. These empirical results indicate that the slow turn-over of housing stock may constrain the overall level of housing liquidity in major Chinese cities.     

Buyer Search and the Role of Broker in an Emerging Housing Market： A Case Study of Guangzhou

Introduction Housing markets have distinct characteristics that re- sult in a higher level of imperfect information than markets of other goods. Houses are unique and hetero- geneous, so buyers must gather enough information concerning the quality as well…     

Interaction Among Construction Investment, Other Investment and GDP in China

With Granger causality method, this paper examines the causal dynamics among three economic fundamentals: construction investment, other investment and the gross domestic product (GDP). Short-run and long-run interactive effects among these three time series are analyzed from 1981 to 2001. The empirical results show that construction investment has a stronger short-run effect on economic growth than other investment, and economic growth has a long-term effect on both construction and other investments. These findings indicate that construction investment is an important factor influencing short-term economic growth fluctuations, with its growth stimulating economic growth and its slumps leading to downside fluctuations. At the same time, investment growth cannot be sustained without the support of the national economy. These empirical results have important implications for economic policy makers in China.