Exchange rate forecasting and the performance of currency portfolios

We examine the potential gains of using exchange rate forecast models and forecast combination methods in the management of currency portfolios for three exchange rates: the euro versus the US dollar, the British pound, and the Japanese yen. We use a battery of econometric specifications to evaluate whether optimal currency portfolios implied by trading strategies based on exchange rate forecasts outperform single currencies and the equally weighted portfolio. We assess the differences in profitability of optimal currency portfolios for different types of investor preferences, two trading strategies, mean squared error‐based composite forecasts, and different forecast horizons. Our results indicate that there are clear benefits of integrating exchange rate forecasts from state‐of‐the‐art econometric models in currency portfolios. These benefits vary across investor preferences and prediction horizons but are rather similar across trading strategies.     

Senescence surveillance of pre-malignant hepatocytes limits liver cancer development

Upon the aberrant activation of oncogenes, normal cells can enter the cellular senescence program, a state of stable cell-cycle arrest, which represents an important barrier against tumour development in vivo. Senescent cells communicate with their environment by secreting various cytokines and growth factors, and it was reported that this 'secretory phenotype' can have pro- as well as anti-tumorigenic effects. Here we show that oncogene-induced senescence occurs in otherwise normal murine hepatocytes in vivo. Pre-malignant senescent hepatocytes secrete chemo- and cytokines and are subject to immune-mediated clearance (designated as 'senescence surveillance'), which depends on an intact CD4(+) T-cell-mediated adaptive immune response. Impaired immune surveillance of pre-malignant senescent hepatocytes results in the development of murine hepatocellular carcinomas (HCCs), thus showing that senescence surveillance is important for tumour suppression in vivo. In accordance with these observations, ras-specific Th1 lymphocytes could be detected in mice, in which oncogene-induced senescence had been triggered by hepatic expression of Nras(G12V). We also found that CD4(+) T cells require monocytes/macrophages to execute the clearance of senescent hepatocytes. Our study indicates that senescence surveillance represents an important extrinsic component of the senescence anti-tumour barrier, and illustrates how the cellular senescence program is involved in tumour immune surveillance by mounting specific immune responses against antigens expressed in pre-malignant senescent cells.     

A common variant associated with prostate cancer in European and African populations

With the increasing incidence of prostate cancer, identifying common genetic variants that confer risk of the disease is important. Here we report such a variant on chromosome 8q24, a region initially identified through a study of Icelandic families. Allele -8 of the microsatellite DG8S737 was associated with prostate cancer in three case-control series of European ancestry from Iceland, Sweden and the US. The estimated odds ratio (OR) of the allele is 1.62 (P = 2.7 x 10(-11)). About 19% of affected men and 13% of the general population carry at least one copy, yielding a population attributable risk (PAR) of approximately 8%. The association was also replicated in an African American case-control group with a similar OR, in which 41% of affected individuals and 30% of the population are carriers. This leads to a greater estimated PAR (16%) that may contribute to higher incidence of prostate cancer in African American men than in men of European ancestry.     

Antibody neutralization and escape by HIV-1

Neutralizing antibodies (Nab) are a principal component of an effective human immune response to many pathogens, yet their role in HIV-1 infection is unclear. To gain a better understanding of this role, we examined plasma from patients with acute HIV infection. Here we report the detection of autologous Nab as early as 52 days after detection of HIV-specific antibodies. The viral inhibitory activity of Nab resulted in complete replacement of neutralization-sensitive virus by successive populations of resistant virus. Escape virus contained mutations in the env gene that were unexpectedly sparse, did not map generally to known neutralization epitopes, and involved primarily changes in N-linked glycosylation. This pattern of escape, and the exceptional density of HIV-1 envelope glycosylation generally, led us to postulate an evolving 'glycan shield' mechanism of neutralization escape whereby selected changes in glycan packing prevent Nab binding but not receptor binding. Direct support for this model was obtained by mutational substitution showing that Nab-selected alterations in glycosylation conferred escape from both autologous antibody and epitope-specific monoclonal antibodies. The evolving glycan shield thus represents a new mechanism contributing to HIV-1 persistence in the face of an evolving antibody repertoire.     

A common inversion under selection in Europeans

A refined physical map of chromosome 17q21.31 uncovered a 900-kb inversion polymorphism. Chromosomes with the inverted segment in different orientations represent two distinct lineages, H1 and H2, that have diverged for as much as 3 million years and show no evidence of having recombined. The H2 lineage is rare in Africans, almost absent in East Asians but found at a frequency of 20% in Europeans, in whom the haplotype structure is indicative of a history of positive selection. Here we show that the H2 lineage is undergoing positive selection in the Icelandic population, such that carrier females have more children and have higher recombination rates than noncarriers.     

Fbxw7/Cdc4 is a p53-dependent, haploinsufficient tumour suppressor gene

The FBXW7/hCDC4 gene encodes a ubiquitin ligase implicated in the control of chromosome stability. Here we identify the mouse Fbxw7 gene as a p53-dependent tumour suppressor gene by using a mammalian genetic screen for p53-dependent genes involved in tumorigenesis. Radiation-induced lymphomas from p53+/- mice, but not those from p53-/- mice, show frequent loss of heterozygosity and a 10% mutation rate of the Fbxw7 gene. Fbxw7+/- mice have greater susceptibility to radiation-induced tumorigenesis, but most tumours retain and express the wild-type allele, indicating that Fbxw7 is a haploinsufficient tumour suppressor gene. Loss of Fbxw7 alters the spectrum of tumours that develop in p53 deficient mice to include a range of tumours in epithelial tissues such as the lung, liver and ovary. Mouse embryo fibroblasts from Fbxw7-deficient mice, or wild-type mouse cells expressing Fbxw7 small interfering RNA, have higher levels of Aurora-A kinase, c-Jun and Notch4, but not of cyclin E. We propose that p53-dependent loss of Fbxw7 leads to genetic instability by mechanisms that might involve the activation of Aurora-A, providing a rationale for the early occurrence of these mutations in human cancers.     

Autoinhibition of TBCB regulates EB1-mediated microtubule dynamics

Tubulin cofactors (TBCs) participate in the folding, dimerization, and dissociation pathways of the tubulin dimer. Among them, TBCB and TBCE are two CAP-Gly domain-containing proteins that together efficiently interact with and dissociate the tubulin dimer. In the study reported here we showed that TBCB localizes at spindle and midzone microtubules during mitosis. Furthermore, the motif DEI/M-COO^? present in TBCB, which is similar to the EEY/F-COO^? element characteristic of EB proteins, CLIP-170, and α-tubulin, is required for TBCE–TBCB heterodimer formation and thus for tubulin dimer dissociation. This motif is responsible for TBCB autoinhibition, and our analysis suggests that TBCB is a monomer in solution. Mutants of TBCB lacking this motif are derepressed and induce microtubule depolymerization through an interaction with EB1 associated with microtubule tips. TBCB is also able to bind to the chaperonin complex CCT containing α-tubulin, suggesting that it could escort tubulin to facilitate its folding and dimerization, recycling or degradation.     

A variant of the gene encoding leukotriene A4 hydrolase confers ethnicity-specific risk of myocardial infarction

Variants of the gene ALOX5AP (also known as FLAP) encoding arachidonate 5-lipoxygenase activating protein are known to be associated with risk of myocardial infarction. Here we show that a haplotype (HapK) spanning the LTA4H gene encoding leukotriene A4 hydrolase, a protein in the same biochemical pathway as ALOX5AP, confers modest risk of myocardial infarction in an Icelandic cohort. Measurements of leukotriene B4 (LTB4) production suggest that this risk is mediated through upregulation of the leukotriene pathway. Three cohorts from the United States also show that HapK confers a modest relative risk (1.16) in European Americans, but it confers a threefold larger risk in African Americans. About 27% of the European American controls carried at least one copy of HapK, as compared with only 6% of African American controls. Our analyses indicate that HapK is very rare in Africa and that its occurrence in African Americans is due to European admixture. Interactions with other genetic or environmental risk factors that are more common in African Americans are likely to account for the greater relative risk conferred by HapK in this group.     

A phosphatase cascade by which rewarding stimuli control nucleosomal response

Dopamine orchestrates motor behaviour and reward-driven learning. Perturbations of dopamine signalling have been implicated in several neurological and psychiatric disorders, and in drug addiction. The actions of dopamine are mediated in part by the regulation of gene expression in the striatum, through mechanisms that are not fully understood. Here we show that drugs of abuse, as well as food reinforcement learning, promote the nuclear accumulation of 32-kDa dopamine-regulated and cyclic-AMP-regulated phosphoprotein (DARPP-32). This accumulation is mediated through a signalling cascade involving dopamine D1 receptors, cAMP-dependent activation of protein phosphatase-2A, dephosphorylation of DARPP-32 at Ser 97 and inhibition of its nuclear export. The nuclear accumulation of DARPP-32, a potent inhibitor of protein phosphatase-1, increases the phosphorylation of histone H3, an important component of nucleosomal response. Mutation of Ser 97 profoundly alters behavioural effects of drugs of abuse and decreases motivation for food, underlining the functional importance of this signalling cascade.