Forecasting regional house price inflation: a comparison between dynamic factor models and vector autoregressive models

This paper uses the dynamic factor model framework, which accommodates a large cross‐section of macroeconomic time series, for forecasting regional house price inflation. In this study, we forecast house price inflation for five metropolitan areas of South Africa using principal components obtained from 282 quarterly macroeconomic time series in the period 1980:1 to 2006:4. The results, based on the root mean square errors of one to four quarters ahead out‐of‐sample forecasts over the period 2001:1 to 2006:4 indicate that, in the majority of the cases, the Dynamic Factor Model statistically outperforms the vector autoregressive models, using both the classical and the Bayesian treatments. We also consider spatial and non‐spatial specifications. Our results indicate that macroeconomic fundamentals in forecasting house price inflation are important. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Multilevel Innovation in Remote Networked Schools

Small remote rural schools in Quebec face an ongoing challenge to provide similar quality educational services than bigger schools. Since 2002, the Remote Network Schools (RNS) initiative afforded schools the opportunity to reinvent their practice by using online tools to experience collaborative learning activities with other remote schools. Teachers and students experienced quality learning and demonstrated agency by implementing the RNS in their context. Measures include: diversity of learning activities, quality of online classroom interactions, changes in teacher beliefs, and shifts in teacher and student roles. Our results show that it is a viable operating method for such schools and that other schools could contemplate implementing such innovative practices.     

COMPARISON OF TWO METHODS OF OPERATING THEATRE PLANNING： APPLICATION IN BELGIAN HOSPITAL

Operating Theatre is the centre of the hospital management＇s efforts. It constitutes the most expensive sector with more than 10% of the intended operating budget of the hospital. To reduce the costs while maintaining a good quality of care, one of the solutions is to improve the existent planning and scheduling methods by improving the services and surgical specialty coordination or finding the best estimation of surgical case durations. The other solution is to construct an effective surgical case plan and schedule. The operating theatre planning and scheduling is the two important steps, which aim to make a surgical case programming with an objective of obtaining a realizable and efficient surgical case schedule. This paper focuses on the first step, the operating theatre planning problem. Two planning methods are introduced and compared. Real data of a Belgian university hospital ＂Tivoli＂ are used for the experiments.     

MODELING COMMERCIAL PROCESSES AND CUSTOMER BEHAVIORS TO ESTIMATE THE DIFFUSION RATE OF NEW PRODUCTS

1. Introduction In his famous seminal book (Rogers 1962), Rogers introduced and popularized a generic framework for analyzing and describing how the mechanism of diffusion of innovations works inside a given population. In this general approach, “innovation” can of course be understood in a large way: it may indeed referto various contexts such as the learning of a new practice, the use of a new tool, the launch of a new product, etc. The strength of Rogers' point of view comes from the fac…     

Systematic documentation and analysis of human genetic variation in hemoglobinopathies using the microattribution approach

We developed a series of interrelated locus-specific databases to store all published and unpublished genetic variation related to hemoglobinopathies and thalassemia and implemented microattribution to encourage submission of unpublished observations of genetic variation to these public repositories. A total of 1,941 unique genetic variants in 37 genes, encoding globins and other erythroid proteins, are currently documented in these databases, with reciprocal attribution of microcitations to data contributors. Our project provides the first example of implementing microattribution to incentivise submission of all known genetic variation in a defined system. It has demonstrably increased the reporting of human variants, leading to a comprehensive online resource for systematically describing human genetic variation in the globin genes and other genes contributing to hemoglobinopathies and thalassemias. The principles established here will serve as a model for other systems and for the analysis of other common and/or complex human genetic diseases.     

Direct observation of Anderson localization of matter waves in a controlled disorder

In 1958, Anderson predicted the localization of electronic wavefunctions in disordered crystals and the resulting absence of diffusion. It is now recognized that Anderson localization is ubiquitous in wave physics because it originates from the interference between multiple scattering paths. Experimentally, localization has been reported for light waves, microwaves, sound waves and electron gases. However, there has been no direct observation of exponential spatial localization of matter waves of any type. Here we observe exponential localization of a Bose-Einstein condensate released into a one-dimensional waveguide in the presence of a controlled disorder created by laser speckle. We operate in a regime of pure Anderson localization, that is, with weak disorder-such that localization results from many quantum reflections of low amplitude-and an atomic density low enough to render interactions negligible. We directly image the atomic density profiles as a function of time, and find that weak disorder can stop the expansion and lead to the formation of a stationary, exponentially localized wavefunction-a direct signature of Anderson localization. We extract the localization length by fitting the exponential wings of the profiles, and compare it to theoretical calculations. The power spectrum of the one-dimensional speckle potentials has a high spatial frequency cutoff, causing exponential localization to occur only when the de Broglie wavelengths of the atoms in the expanding condensate are greater than an effective mobility edge corresponding to that cutoff. In the opposite case, we find that the density profiles decay algebraically, as predicted in ref. 13. The method presented here can be extended to localization of atomic quantum gases in higher dimensions, and with controlled interactions.     

Clay minerals in surface sediments of the Pearl River drainage basin and their contribution to the South China Sea

Clay minerals have played a significant role in the study of the East Asian monsoon evolution in the South China Sea by being able to track oceanic current variations and to reveal contemporaneous paleoclimaUc changes prevailing in continental source areas. As one of the most important rivers inputting terrigenous matters to the northern South China Sea, the Pearl River was not previously paid attention to from the viewpoint of clay mineralogy. This paper presents a detailed study on clay minerals in surface sediments collected from the Pearl River drainage basin （including all three main channels, various branches, and the Lingdingyang in the estuary） by using the X-ray diffraction （XRD） method. The results indicate that the clay mineral assemblage consists dominantly of kaolinite （35%-65%）, lesser abundance of chlorite （20%-35%） and illite （12%-42%）, and very scare smectite occurrences （generally 〈5%）. Their respective distribution does not present any obvious difference throughout the Pearl River drainage basin. However, downstream the Pearl River to the northern South China Sea, the clay mineral assemblage varies significantly： kaolinite decreases gradually, smecUte and illite increase gradually. Additionally, illite chemistry index steps down and illite crystallinity steps up. These variations indicate the contribution of major kaolinite, lesser illite and chlorite, and very scarce smecUte to the northern South China Sea from the Pearl River drainage basin. The maximum contribution of clay minerals from the Pearl River is 72% to the northern margin and only 15% to the northern slope of the South China Sea. In both glacials and interglacials, kaolinite indicates that the ability of mechanical erosion occurred in the Pearl River drainage basin.