A new twist to the No Miracles Argument for the success of science

J. D. Trout has recently developed a new defense of scientific realism, a new version of the No Miracles Argument. I critically evaluate Trout's novel defense of realism. I argue that Trout's argument for scientific realism and the related explanation for the success of science are self-defeating. In the process of arguing against the traditional realist strategies for explaining the success of science, he inadvertently undermines his own argument.     

Little-known and phylogenetically obscure South African estuarine microgastropods (Mollusca: Truncatelloidea) as living animals

Areas of the Knysna estuarine bay in the Western Cape are dominated by three endemic South African truncatelloid microgastropods, temporarily known as ‘Hydrobia’ knysnaensis (Krauss), ‘Assiminea’ capensis (Sowerby) and ‘Assiminea’ globulus Connolly. Although first described 80–170 years ago and present in abundance (up to 100,000 m^?2), they remain surrounded by confusion and still await taxonomic assignment, largely because they appear most atypical members of their groups by virtue of anatomy and/or biogeography and/or habitat. This study contributes in-life perspectives to morphological and phylogenetic analyses known to be on-going. At Knysna, they are syntopic: at least two occurring in >85% and all three in >40% of individual 0.0026 m² samples from their region of dominance. Nevertheless, they tend to greater abundance in divergent microhabitats; ‘A.’ globulus dominating higher tidal levels, and ‘A.’ capensis and ‘Hydrobia’ lower ones; the former especially unvegetated sediment, the latter, if anything, seagrass. Interspecific feeding interactions appear unlikely to be responsible for these patterns, other evidence suggesting that all are maintained below carrying capacity. Field biology of ‘H.’ knysnaensis generally appears equivalent to that of northern-hemisphere intertidal hydrobiids and that of ‘A.’ globulus is typically assimineid, albeit at atypically low shore height. Unlike assimineids, however, ‘A.’ capensis is truly aquatic. The success of these truncatelloids in unusual circumstances may be consequent on the absence from South Africa of other microgastropod groups that fill their niches elsewhere in the southern hemisphere.     

Constructing and evaluating core inflation measures from component‐level inflation data

This paper undertakes a comprehensive examination of 10 measures of core inflation and evaluates which measure produces the best forecast of headline inflation out‐of‐sample. We use the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index as our measure of inflation. We use two sets of components (17 and 50) of the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index to construct these core inflation measures and evaluate these measures at the three time horizons (6, 12 and 24 months) most relevant for monetary policy decisions. The best measure of core inflation for both sets of components and over all time horizons uses weights based on the first principal component of the disaggregated (component‐level) prices. Interestingly, the results vary by the number of components used; when more components are used the weights based on the persistence of each component is statistically equivalent to the weights generated by the first principal component. However, those forecasts using the persistence of 50 components are statistically worse than those generated using the first principal component of 17 components. The statistical superiority of the principal component method is due to the fact that it extracts (in the first principal component) the common source of variation in the component level prices that accurately describes trend inflation over the next 6–24 months.     

兰州黄河岸边卵石层大吨位桩基自平衡法试验研究

对兰州深安黄河大桥进行桩基自平衡法试验。在对黄河岸边的岩土层进行桩基试验时,对桩基的极限侧阻力和端阻力标准值的取值提出建议,并在兰州地区进行自平衡法桩基试验时,对桩基侧摩阻力的取值提出建议。     

和谐边疆构建下的宗教渗透问题研究——基于对云南跨境民族的田野调查

通过对云南跨境民族地区的田野调查,该区域宗教渗透不仅没有停止,反而呈现出多样性、隐蔽性等特点。宗教渗透对跨境民族的国家政治认同等造成了严重破坏,对云南边疆社会的稳定构成了较大的威胁,成为了云南边疆地区非传统安全问题中最敏感、最复杂、最难解决的问题之一。抵御宗教渗透不仅要完善政府宗教管理能力、改善经济条件等,更要调动作为文化主体者的跨境民族自身的"文化自觉",以主动抵御宗教渗透。只有如此才是最有效的抵御宗教渗透举措,才最终有利于和谐边疆的构建。     

Empirical Test for Earnings Management of Top Managers＇ Change in Listed Companies

Top managers play a significant role on business decision in listed companies. The frequency of top managers＇ change is rather high all along. Whether those listed companies which top managers changed can really improve performances？ In this paper, we will discuss whether listed companies improve the financial index through earning management and give some advice on top managers＇ change in listed companies in China.     

望江矶雨花台砾石层工程地质特性及形成机理

根据野外考察与实验资料，对南京雨花区望江矶的雨花台砾石层的工程地质性质作出初步评价认为该砾石层具有一定的固结性，较好的水稳性，较强的抗剪性，中低压缩性不同于现代松散的砂砾石堆积体，作者还运用沉积原理及风化理论对影响其工程地质性质的作用因素进行了探讨。     

Micro VAXⅡ超级微型机上一种简便的图形输出

介绍了用IBM PC机作为超级微型机Micro VAXⅡ的图形输入/输出控制设备,借助于IBM PC机上AutoCAD高级绘图软件,在Micro VAXⅡ不扩展高级语言绘图功能的情况下输出图形的方法。