基于背景插值的空空导弹攻击区在线模拟方法

针对空战态势迅速变化对空空导弹攻击区模拟实时性的需求,提出基于背景插值的攻击区在线模拟方法。首先预测下一采样时刻态势,并针对预测态势模拟解算攻击区信息;当下一采样时刻到来时,利用攻击区预测值和先前两次攻击区模拟信息及相应的态势记录插值估计攻击区真实值。背景插值方法将攻击区模拟解算放到先前计算周期中,实时性高。理论分析证明了背景插值误差随着采样时间的减小收敛于零。仿真结果表明,背景插值模拟方法的误差与传统攻击区模拟方法相当,而前者平均可在7.16×10^-6s内给出结果,后者平均计算耗时为0.290 s。     

Neural network structure identification in inflation forecasting

Neural networks (NNs) are appropriate to use in time series analysis under conditions of unfulfilled assumptions, i.e., non‐normality and nonlinearity. The aim of this paper is to propose means of addressing identified shortcomings with the objective of identifying the NN structure for inflation forecasting. The research is based on a theoretical model that includes the characteristics of demand‐pull and cost‐push inflation; i.e., it uses the labor market, financial and external factors, and lagged inflation variables. It is conducted at the aggregate level of euro area countries from January 1999 to January 2017. Based on the estimated 90 feedforward NNs (FNNs) and 450 Jordan NNs (JNNs), which differ in variable parameters (number of iterations, learning rate, initial weight value intervals, number of hidden neurons, and weight value of the context unit), the mean square error (MSE), and the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) are calculated for two periods: in‐the‐sample and out‐of‐sample. Ranking NNs simultaneously on both periods according to either MSE or AIC does not lead to the selection of the ‘best’ NN because the optimal NN in‐the‐sample, based on MSE and/or AIC criteria, often has high out‐of‐sample values of both indicators. To achieve the best compromise solution, i.e., to select an optimal NN, the preference ranking organization method for enrichment of evaluations (PROMETHEE) is used. Comparing the optimal FNN and JNN, i.e., FNN(4,5,1) and JNN(4,3,1), it is concluded that under approximately equal conditions, fewer hidden layer neurons are required in JNN than in FNN, confirming that JNN is parsimonious compared to FNN. Moreover, JNN has a better forecasting performance than FNN.     

Redefinition of Nipponbathynella based on the four new species from East Asia (Crustacea: Bathynellacea: Parabathynellidae)

Four new species of the parabathynellid genus Nipponbathynella Schminke, 1973 are described from South Korea (Nipponbathynella leesookyungae sp. nov., Nipponbathynella donggangensis sp. nov. and Nipponbathynella wanjuensis sp. nov.) and Japan (Nipponbathynella shigaensis sp. nov.), raising the number of known species to seven. Nipponbathynella leesookyungae is characterized by the convex ventral surface of the labrum and the rich ornamentation (with three spinules and two teeth) of the exopod of male thoracopod VIII; N. donggangensis by the distal spine on the distal maxillular segment with many dentils; N. wanjuensis by the endopod of the male thoracopod VIII with one seta (instead of two) and the serrated endopodal spur of the uropod; and N. shigaensis by the basipod of thoracopods II–VII carrying strong hairs on their outer margin. The three new and one known (Nipponbathynella pectina) South Korean species share a bur-like inner lobe of the male thoracopod VIII, suggesting their close relationship. Based on the one-segmented exopod on thoracopod I and two-segmented exopod on the thoracopods II–VII, the bell-shaped male thoracopod VIII and the uropod with sympod carrying a large distal spine in addition to several proximal spines of smaller size, with endopod drawn into a spur and with exopod carrying a seta, a close phylogenetic relationship between Nipponbathynella and Arisubathynella Park and Eun, 2012 is proposed.

http://zoobank.org/urn:lsid:zoobank.org:pub:9650379F-C249-473C-AAA4-B3D638B96322     

基于有符号移位序列的零相关区互补序列集交织构造方法

提出有符号的移位序列,将移位序列分为移位和符号两部分,并基于此提出一种零相关区互补序列集的交织构造方法.该方法利用完备互补序列对作为初始序列,根据初始序列与移位序列长度的关系分2种情况构造移位序列.第1种情况,二者长度互素,分析并证明移位序列中未引入与引入1个、2个负号后新序列对相关函数的分布情况,提出当移位序列长度为3时,获得完备互补序列集的方法;第2种情况,移位序列长度被初始序列长度整除,当移位序列长度为偶数时,提出获得完备互补序列集的方法.实例仿真证明了以上构造的有效性.     

热输入对Q420FRE钢焊接热影响区组织和力学性能的影响

采用全自动埋弧焊法研究不同热输入对智能型耐火钢Q420FRE焊接热影响区微观组织和力学性能的影响。结果表明,随着焊接热输入的增大,熔合线及粗晶区组织没有明显粗化,组织类型及组成也没产生明显变化,均由粒状贝氏体和少量针状铁素体组成;细晶区组织为铁素体和珠光体;未相变区组织为粒状贝氏体和针状铁素体。随着热输入的增加,在热影响区Q420FRE钢表现出一定程度的软化,软化区域向母材方向推移并稍有扩大。热影响区Q420FRE钢的高温屈服强度和拉伸强度以及低温冲击韧性随焊接热输入的增加而降低,而其低温冲击韧性在-40℃低温下仍保持在240~330J的高水平。     

低合金超高强度钢跨尺度疲劳失效行为分析

为了研究40CrNi2Si2MoVA低合金超高强度钢的跨尺度疲劳失效行为,以约束应力区描述材料的损伤过程,以跨尺度应变能密度因子作为疲劳裂纹扩展的控制参量,建立宏微观跨尺度疲劳裂纹扩展统一模型。采用上述模型,利用光滑试样(应力集中系数Kt=1)的试验S-N曲线,拟合出疲劳模型中的材料参数。当考虑材料微结构对疲劳寿命的影响时,该模型可精确再现出疲劳试验数据的发散特性。利用该模型对不同应力集中系数下(Kt=2,3)含缺口试样的疲劳寿命进行了预测,理论计算结果与试验结果吻合良好。研究结果表明,合金钢材料的初始缺陷及微结构的演化特性,对疲劳寿命有显著影响,是疲劳试验数据发散的主要原因。     

卷筒小行星齿轮断裂失效分析

卷筒小行星齿轮在运转中发生异常断齿。为了查明断裂原因,运用宏观及微观分析方法,对断裂齿轮进行了分析。结果表明:齿轮断裂为多源疲劳断裂,且多数未断齿根部位亦发现裂纹;齿轮基材存在贝氏体及铁素体组织,说明淬火时冷却速度不足;表面淬火也不均匀。这些工艺问题导致齿轮综合机械性能下降。在循环工作应力及应力集中作用下,齿根部位产生多处疲劳裂纹源,并不断扩展,最终导致齿轮断裂失效。     

采动影响型地下煤火诱发地表裂隙率的时空分布模型

基于随机介质移动理论,构建了采动影响型地下煤火诱发地表裂隙率的时空统一分布模型,并实例分析了矩形火区引发地表线(张)裂隙率、面裂隙率以及剪裂隙率的分布及动态变化规律。地表线(张)裂隙率、面裂隙率和剪裂隙率的极大值分别分布在采(燃)空区边界内侧约20 m (约为煤层厚度的3~4倍)的位置、四周边界线的四个中点位置和四个边角端点所对应的地表区域。随着煤层燃烧,垂直于煤火发展方向上的线裂隙率以及空区边界处对应的地表面裂隙率均呈半正态曲线形式变化并最终稳定于最大值;而剪裂隙率、煤火发展方向上的线裂隙率及空区内部对应的地表面裂隙率均呈正态曲线形式变化。     

不同含水率下滑带土抗剪强度特性研究

利用环剪试验仪可以研究土体在较大剪切位移下抗剪强度的变化规律。试验以三峡库区黄土滑坡滑带土为研究对象,研究了在不同法向压力和含水率下该滑带土抗剪强度的特性。试验结果表明:滑带土的抗剪强度与轴向应力的大小呈现出较强的线性关系,并随有效轴向应力的增大而增大;试样在剪切过程中呈现出应变软化的特征,当轴向应力一致时,低含水率的滑带土其抗剪强度峰后软化现象表现的越明显;不同含水率滑带土试样之间的c、值降幅百分比基本一致,c、值减小范围比较同步,塑限含水率可作为影响滑带土抗剪强度增降百分比的重要分界点。     

利用SS前驱波研究纳斯卡–南美俯冲带周边上地幔间断面起伏及其动力学意义

利用USArray的远震记录资料, 对1万多条地震记录的SS前驱波进行共反射点叠加分析(叠加范围是半径为5°的球冠), 得到纳斯卡板块南部及南美板块西部(120°W—60°W, 30°S—5°N)上地幔间断面的起伏形态。由于数据很好地覆盖了研究区域, 叠加范围更小, 因此比以往的结果具有更高的空间分辨率。在Galapagos, Easter和 San Felix这3个热点下方观测到的间断面起伏形态符合地幔深部存在高温异常的假设。还观测到: 在东太平洋洋隆南段下方, 410 km间断面深度增加; 在俯冲带下方, 410 km和 660 km间断面深度增加。