Neural network structure identification in inflation forecasting

Neural networks (NNs) are appropriate to use in time series analysis under conditions of unfulfilled assumptions, i.e., non‐normality and nonlinearity. The aim of this paper is to propose means of addressing identified shortcomings with the objective of identifying the NN structure for inflation forecasting. The research is based on a theoretical model that includes the characteristics of demand‐pull and cost‐push inflation; i.e., it uses the labor market, financial and external factors, and lagged inflation variables. It is conducted at the aggregate level of euro area countries from January 1999 to January 2017. Based on the estimated 90 feedforward NNs (FNNs) and 450 Jordan NNs (JNNs), which differ in variable parameters (number of iterations, learning rate, initial weight value intervals, number of hidden neurons, and weight value of the context unit), the mean square error (MSE), and the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) are calculated for two periods: in‐the‐sample and out‐of‐sample. Ranking NNs simultaneously on both periods according to either MSE or AIC does not lead to the selection of the ‘best’ NN because the optimal NN in‐the‐sample, based on MSE and/or AIC criteria, often has high out‐of‐sample values of both indicators. To achieve the best compromise solution, i.e., to select an optimal NN, the preference ranking organization method for enrichment of evaluations (PROMETHEE) is used. Comparing the optimal FNN and JNN, i.e., FNN(4,5,1) and JNN(4,3,1), it is concluded that under approximately equal conditions, fewer hidden layer neurons are required in JNN than in FNN, confirming that JNN is parsimonious compared to FNN. Moreover, JNN has a better forecasting performance than FNN.     

Neuroleptic-induced prolactin rise: Influence of pharmacological alterations of different neurotransmitter systems

Summary Oral administration of 2 neuroleptic drugs, haloperidol and LR511 induced in male rats a marked, dose-dependent and sustained rise of plasma prolactin.     

Postcranial evidence from early Homo from Dmanisi, Georgia

The Plio-Pleistocene site of Dmanisi, Georgia, has yielded a rich fossil and archaeological record documenting an early presence of the genus Homo outside Africa. Although the craniomandibular morphology of early Homo is well known as a result of finds from Dmanisi and African localities, data about its postcranial morphology are still relatively scarce. Here we describe newly excavated postcranial material from Dmanisi comprising a partial skeleton of an adolescent individual, associated with skull D2700/D2735, and the remains from three adult individuals. This material shows that the postcranial anatomy of the Dmanisi hominins has a surprising mosaic of primitive and derived features. The primitive features include a small body size, a low encephalization quotient and absence of humeral torsion; the derived features include modern-human-like body proportions and lower limb morphology indicative of the capability for long-distance travel. Thus, the earliest known hominins to have lived outside of Africa in the temperate zones of Eurasia did not yet display the full set of derived skeletal features.     

Natural history of mesenchymal stem cells,from vessel walls to culture vessels

Mesenchymal stem/stromal cells (MSCs) can regenerate tissues by direct differentiation or indirectly by stimulating angiogenesis, limiting inflammation, and recruiting tissue-specific progenitor cells. MSCs emerge and multiply in long-term cultures of total cells from the bone marrow or multiple other organs. Such a derivation in vitro is simple and convenient, hence popular, but has long precluded understanding of the native identity, tissue distribution, frequency, and natural role of MSCs, which have been defined and validated exclusively in terms of surface marker expression and developmental potential in culture into bone, cartilage, and fat. Such simple, widely accepted criteria uniformly typify MSCs, even though some differences in potential exist, depending on tissue sources. Combined immunohistochemistry, flow cytometry, and cell culture have allowed tracking the artifactual cultured mesenchymal stem/stromal cells back to perivascular anatomical regions. Presently, both pericytes enveloping microvessels and adventitial cells surrounding larger arteries and veins have been described as possible MSC forerunners. While such a vascular association would explain why MSCs have been isolated from virtually all tissues tested, the origin of the MSCs grown from umbilical cord blood remains unknown. In fact, most aspects of the biology of perivascular MSCs are still obscure, from the emergence of these cells in the embryo to the molecular control of their activity in adult tissues. Such dark areas have not compromised intents to use these cells in clinical settings though, in which purified perivascular cells already exhibit decisive advantages over conventional MSCs, including purity, thorough characterization and, principally, total independence from in vitro culture. A growing body of experimental data is currently paving the way to the medical usage of autologous sorted perivascular cells for indications in which MSCs have been previously contemplated or actually used, such as bone regeneration and cardiovascular tissue repair.