一类数列极限存在性的证明及其求法

讨论了一类数列极限存在性的证明与其值的求法,通过考研真题和其他实例验证了提出的证明方法是有效、实用的.     

基于水资源合作的水资源短缺区域水资源优化配置

为提高水资源短缺区域的水资源利用效率，实现区域水资源初始配置后的有效再配置，提出三阶段水资源短缺区域水资源优化配置方法：阶段1，利用高效的“优先规则”构建部门间水资源合作清晰联盟的用水收益支付函数，对联盟成员水资源共用、获益方式进行了合理刻画；阶段2，基于Choquet积分形式的模糊合作博弈、阶段1中的清晰联盟支付函数，构建部门间水资源模糊联盟支付函数；阶段3，基于上述成果，构建水资源短缺区域水资源优化配置模型，求解得到用水部门最优水资源合作联盟，并将求得的最优模糊联盟视为大联盟，通过求解其核仁解获得最优模糊联盟的收益分配。以京津冀区域水资源优化配置问题为例，算例结果表明：①基于Choquet积分形式模糊合作博弈的三阶段水资源优化配置模型能够最大化区域整体用水收益水平，实现水资源短缺区域中的水资源优化配置，并使区域中用水部门有机会分得更多的获益；②本文模型无需引入模糊Shapley值等分配方法作为约束条件即可求得最优联盟，模型不影响不同收益分配方法分配结果的有效性；③采用将最优模糊水资源合作联盟视为大联盟，并求联盟收益的核仁解的方法分配最优联盟收益，无论最优联盟的核心是否为空，都能保证联盟收益分配结果满足个体理性和集体理性要求，即能保证最优联盟中各成员不会“叛逃”最优联盟、联盟稳定存在，且保证获得的分配方案为确定分配值而非分配区间。即本问题中该分配方法优于Shapley值、模糊最小核、弱最小核方法。所构建的水资源短缺区域水资源优化配置模型及最优水资源合作联盟收益分配方法对水资源短缺区域的水资源优化配置问题有较好的适用性，能够为我国京津冀区域等水资源短缺区域的水资源优化配置工作提供参考。     

考虑公平偏好和产品纵向差异化的产品定价

针对双寡头市场中两竞争性的企业考虑有限理性的公平偏好时的最优定价策略问题进行了研究。这两个竞争性的企业分别销售高质量产品和低质量产品。与传统完全理性的企业决策不同的是，两企业在决策时考虑了经典的公平偏好因素。结论表明：当单个企业考虑公平偏好时，两个企业均会采取降价策略来吸引更多的消费者；此外，处于不利不公平时企业的降价幅度大于处于有利不公平时企业的降价幅度。当两个企业考虑公平偏好时，双方都会降价，且它们降价的幅度比单个企业考虑公平偏好情形时的要大。在这种情况下，高质量企业的反应降价程度比低质量企业强烈，且总的降价额度与各感知参数和心理预期市场比例有关。     

The ecological rationality of explanatory reasoning

There is growing evidence that explanatory considerations influence how people change their degrees of belief in light of new information. Recent studies indicate that this influence is systematic and may result from people’s following a probabilistic update rule. While formally very similar to Bayes’ rule, the rule or rules people appear to follow are different from, and inconsistent with, that better-known update rule. This raises the question of the normative status of those updating procedures. Is the role explanation plays in people’s updating their degrees of belief a bias? Or are people right to update on the basis of explanatory considerations, in that this offers benefits that could not be had otherwise? Various philosophers have argued that any reasoning at deviance with Bayesian principles is to be rejected, and so explanatory reasoning, insofar as it deviates from Bayes’ rule, can only be fallacious. We challenge this claim by showing how the kind of explanation-based update rules to which people seem to adhere make it easier to strike the best balance between being fast learners and being accurate learners. Borrowing from the literature on ecological rationality, we argue that what counts as the best balance is intrinsically context-sensitive, and that a main advantage of explanatory update rules is that, unlike Bayes’ rule, they have an adjustable parameter which can be fine-tuned per context. The main methodology to be used is agent-based optimization, which also allows us to take an evolutionary perspective on explanatory reasoning.     

Predicting exchange rates in Asia: New insights on the accuracy of survey forecasts

By linking measures of forecast accuracy as well as testing procedures with regard to forecast rationality this paper investigates aggregated survey forecasts with forecast horizons of 3, 12, and 24 months for the exchange rates of the Chinese yuan, the Hong Kong dollar, the Japanese yen, and the Singapore dollar vis-à-vis the US dollar and, hence, for four different currency regimes. The rationality of the exchange rate predictions is initially assessed utilizing tests for unbiasedness and efficiency which indicate that the investigated forecasts are irrational in the sense that the predictions are biased. As one major contribution of this paper, it is subsequently shown that these results are not consistent with an alternative, less restrictive, measure of rationality. Investigating the order of integration of the time series as well as cointegrating relationships, this empirical evidence supports the conclusion that the majority of forecasts are in fact rational. Regarding forerunning properties of the predictions, the results are rather mediocre, with shorter term forecasts for the tightly managed USD/CNY FX regime being one exception. As one additional important and novel evaluation result, it can be concluded, that the currency regime matters for the quality of exchange rate forecasts.     

证券市场中大股东“掏空”策略的演化博弈分析及调控

随着所有权从分散走向集中,大股东的行为在公司治理问题中的地位日益重要。针对此种情况,笔者从公司治理角度对大股东行为问题的现实背景进行分析,在此基础上通过建立演化博弈模型从有限理性的角度分析大、小股东博弈双方的演化稳定策略（ESS）,并且在博弈矩阵中引入监管力度因子,说明各参数变化对均衡结果的影响,从而为规范证券市场中大股东的行为提供决策参考。     

带有渐近条件奇异微分方程的有界解

应用Schauder不动点定理考虑一类带有渐近条件的二阶奇异微分方程, 证明其有界解的存在性, 从而将北极环流模型有界解的结论推广到一般的二阶奇异微分方程中.     

教师资源配置合理性分析与对策研究

阐述了教师资源合理配置的重要性,分析了教师资源配置不合理的表现,探讨了城乡教师资源配置均衡化的对策。     

动态影响力下网络舆论传播的计算实验研究

基于以往研究较少考虑影响力的即时动态更新,对于网络舆论传播的某些现象,可以融入这一因素进行分析.借鉴Krause有界信任的思想,引入Festinger的认知不一致理论对观点交互条件进行改进,并对信任阈值的作用进行了重新认识.本文认为,信任阈值并非判定个体是否交互的分界线,而是决定影响力增大或减小的分割线.进一步,对影响力的动态性进行了深入研究,引入短记忆过程和惩罚机制,从而构建动态影响力下的网络舆论传播模型,进行了计算实验分析.结果表明:随着群体信任闽值的提高,观点分化程度降低.群体观点演化也受初始影响力分布影响,初始影响力较高,网络群体更容易形成稳定的观点,且收敛速度更快.而投入干预个体的影响作用与群体信任阈值负相关,与干预个体所占的比例正相关.     

积分算子的线性性和有界性

积分算子在数学中是作用在函数上的作用子,根据其核函数的不同,可以得到不同的积分算子;研究了积分算子的线性性及有界性等算子的代数性质,得出了积分算子是线性算子,并且在某些特定情况下还是有界算子,从而是连续的线性算子的结论.