超微粒子－有机聚合物薄膜的研究

我们用离子团束－飞行时间质谱（ＩＣＢ－ＴｏＦＭＳ）系统制备了金（Ａｕ）超微粒子－聚乙烯（ＰＥ）薄膜和Ｃ＿（６０）－聚乙烯薄膜。用透射电子显微镜（ＴＥＭ）分析了所制备的样品。它们的结构是Ａｕ超徽粒子镶嵌在多晶的ＰＥ薄膜中，其中Ａｕ原子团呈球形，直径分布在２．０－５．０ｎｍ窄范围内，当沉积基底温度为９０℃时，Ａｕ原子团相互靠近，几乎连接起来，但仍保持原来大小。基底温度为１４０℃蒸积的Ｃ＿（６０）－ｐＥ薄膜具有晶态结构，其晶格常数为１．４５４ｎｍ。     

谈综采生产系统的有效度及对经济效果的影响

本文根据可靠性理论讨论了综采生产系统的有效度问题,并就有效度对经济效果的影响程度进行了分析。     

Forecasting recessions using the yield curve

We compare forecasts of recessions using four different specifications of the probit model: a time invariant conditionally independent version; a business cycle specific conditionally independent model; a time invariant probit with autocorrelated errors; and a business cycle specific probit with autocorrelated errors. The more sophisticated versions of the model take into account some of the potential underlying causes of the documented predictive instability of the yield curve. We find strong evidence in favour of the more sophisticated specification, which allows for multiple breakpoints across business cycles and autocorrelation. We also develop a new approach to the construction of real time forecasting of recession probabilities. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

岩土体渗透变形在坝基工程中的危害及防治

介绍了渗透变形的特征，危害及其影响因素，阐述了渗透变形的预测和防治方法。     

应用等维新息双向差分灰色模型进行趋势分析的新发现

本建立了最佳等维新息双向差分灰色模型，不仅拓宽了灰色预测的适用范围，而且还通过维数选择确定了最佳维数；使用最新数学工具软件MATLAB进行编程，同时通过对上证周指进行趋势分析，该等维新息预测能较准确地预测未来随机时间序列的涨、跌幅度。     

Why the Afshar experiment does not refute complementarity

A modified version of Young's experiment by Shahriar Afshar demonstrates that, prior to what appears to be a “which-way” measurement, an interference pattern exists. Afshar has claimed that this result constitutes a violation of the Principle of Complementarity. This paper discusses the implications of this experiment and considers how Cramer's Transactional Interpretation easily accommodates the result. It is also shown that the Afshar experiment is analogous in key respects to a spin one-half particle prepared as “spin up along x”, subjected to a nondestructive confirmation of that preparation, and post-selected in a specific state of spin along z. The terminology “which-way” or “which-slit” is critiqued; it is argued that this usage by both Afshar and his critics is misleading and has contributed to confusion surrounding the interpretation of the experiment. Nevertheless, it is concluded that Bohr would have had no more problem accounting for the Afshar result than he would in accounting for the aforementioned pre- and post-selection spin experiment, in which the particle's preparation state is confirmed by a nondestructive measurement prior to post-selection. In addition, some new inferences about the interpretation of delayed choice experiments are drawn from the analysis.     

我国工业重大灾害的Delphi预测方法及其应用──重大危险源辨识的德尔菲（Delphi）专家系统设计

文章针对我国工业企业重大灾害频繁发生的现实，运用Ｄｅｌｐｈｉ方法对人－机－环境系统中大量无法定量的危险源作出概率估算和危险度分级，为建立重大危险源辨识的定量与定性分析相结合的专家系统等做一些初步探讨。     

灰色预测和时序预测的探讨

本文讨论了灰色模型,特别是GM(1,1)模型的特点和适用范围,并将GM(1,1)模型和时序AR(n)模型结合起来(称为组合模型),对我国轻工业产量发展指数等三个项目分别进行了组合模型预测。结果表明,在一般GM模型中引入AR模型可显著提高预测的准确度;在非平稳时序建模中引入GM模型,可作为提取趋势项的另一种方法。文中还从预测的角度将灰色模型和时序模型进行了比较和分析,对“灰”的物理概念进行了初步探讨。     

邯邢冶金矿山管理局物资管理信息系统的研究

简要介绍了《邯邢冶金矿山管理局物资管理信息系统》的研制开发情况,系统的主要功能和特点。     

含信号调制噪声和频率波动的时滞分数阶振子的随机共振

本文研究了含信号调制噪声和频率波动的小时滞线性分数阶振子的随机共振. 利用分数阶Shapiro-Loginov公式和Laplace变换技巧,本文首先推导了系统响应的一阶稳态矩和稳态响应振幅增益（Output Amplitude Gain, OAG）的解析表达式,然后讨论了分数阶、时滞及噪声参数对OAG的影响. 结果显示,各参数对OAG的影响均呈现出非单调变化的特点,表明系统出现广义随机共振. 特别地,分数阶与时滞的协同作用可能诱导随机共振的多样化,这就为在一定范围内调控随机共振提供了可能.