Constructing and evaluating core inflation measures from component‐level inflation data

This paper undertakes a comprehensive examination of 10 measures of core inflation and evaluates which measure produces the best forecast of headline inflation out‐of‐sample. We use the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index as our measure of inflation. We use two sets of components (17 and 50) of the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index to construct these core inflation measures and evaluate these measures at the three time horizons (6, 12 and 24 months) most relevant for monetary policy decisions. The best measure of core inflation for both sets of components and over all time horizons uses weights based on the first principal component of the disaggregated (component‐level) prices. Interestingly, the results vary by the number of components used; when more components are used the weights based on the persistence of each component is statistically equivalent to the weights generated by the first principal component. However, those forecasts using the persistence of 50 components are statistically worse than those generated using the first principal component of 17 components. The statistical superiority of the principal component method is due to the fact that it extracts (in the first principal component) the common source of variation in the component level prices that accurately describes trend inflation over the next 6–24 months.     

基于老厂房改造的景观规划设计

随着城市化高速发展，老厂房再利用的问题日益急迫.上海是中国近代工业起源地,也是率先着手对彰显城市文脉的工业遗产进行调查和保护的历史文化名城.本文以上海典型案例入手，分析了具有代表性的老厂房改造的项目特点，并在此基础上，对常州大成三厂这一民国时期的纺织业遗留地块进行改造设计手法进行介绍，从设计理念、设计内容和节点设计3个方面，体现了文化传承和生态技术相融合理念.     

城市治理首要应加强市民的思想道德建设——以湛江市治理交通秩序为例

交通混乱既影响城市形象,又制约经济发展。本文通过对湛江市区交通混乱现象进行深入调查研究,认为要从根本上改变这一现状,取得长效成果,除了采取行政立法、经济处罚、改善交通基础设施等治理措施外,还应着重加强市民的道德建设,提高其思想道德素质,培养市民良好的社会道德行为习惯。文章旨在为加强湛江市民道德建设,解决湛江及其它城市突出交通问题提供参考。     

搪瓷用钢抗鳞爆性能研究进展

搪瓷制品鳞爆缺陷已经成为国内外研究重点。为提高搪瓷用钢的抗鳞爆性能,非常有必要了解搪瓷层的鳞爆机理。综述了国内外研究鳞爆机理以及氢扩散影响因素的现状。     

Variations on a theme: Clifford’s parallelism in elliptic space

In 1873, W. K. Clifford introduced a notion of parallelism in the three-dimensional elliptic space that, quite surprisingly, exhibits almost all properties of Euclidean parallelism in ordinary space. The purpose of this paper is to describe the genesis of this notion in Clifford’s works and to provide a historical analysis of its reception in the investigations of F. Klein, L. Bianchi, G. Fubini, and E. Bortolotti. Special emphasis is placed upon the important role that Clifford’s parallelism played in the development of the theory of connections.     

“二三结合”开发模式渗流特征研究

L油田B区块开展"二三结合"实验区,"二三结合"开发模式渗流特征对区块的合理高效开发具有重要意义。为了明确其渗流特征,利用油藏数值模拟软件Eclipse建立代表意义的油藏数值模型,研究区块"二三结合"开发模式下原射孔层和补孔层的渗流特征,分析了"二三结合"开发模式下,不同开发阶段综合含水率、采出程度、井底压力、地层压力及含水饱和度的变化特征。研究表明,"二三结合"开发模式先通过水驱开发挖潜原射孔层剩余油,提高厚油层顶部剩余油的采出程度,再通过聚合物驱进一步提高开发效果,通过水驱与聚驱的综合作用,最终得到较好的开发效果。     

避孕压力为啥由女性承担

<正>也不是没人研究过男性避孕药,只是面对这"野火烧不尽,春风吹又生"的精子们,科学家们绞尽脑汁却依旧所获不多。避孕,是男女两个人的事,但在选择避孕方式上,女性安装宫内节育器的比例要比男性做输精管结扎术的比例大得多,市面上的避孕药品也几乎都偏向于女性。像宫内节育器这样的避孕措施对女性的伤害还真不小。最可怕的是有很多女性即使带上宫内节育器还会有怀孕的情况,而这样的情况往往会导致宫外孕。     

迹为整数的3×3阶正交矩阵的谱

讨论了3×3阶正交矩阵的特征值和迹的关系,证明了迹为整数的3×3阶正交矩阵的谱可由迹确定,为应用广泛的3×3阶正交矩阵的谱的计算提供了简单实用的方法.     

彩虹黑弦的热力学性质

双重相对论(DSR)是描述平直时空中的量子引力的一个有效模型.当试图将该模型纳入到弯曲时空中考虑时,一种被称为"彩虹引力"的理论可帮助实现这一推广,此时背景时空依赖于探测粒子的能量.事实上受粒子能量影响的度规的形式依赖于正交系的选取.本文主要考虑了自由落体参考系下的彩虹静态柱对称黑洞(彩虹黑弦).得到了取一阶近似的彩虹黑弦的霍金温度和熵,这种修正来源于考虑的彩虹引力效应.