振动方程的线性多步法数值求解

详细分析了工程中常用的振动问题数值解法Newmark及Wilson-θ法。并在此基础之上本文提出一种新的计算方法，即在计算t＋Δt时刻的状态时，不仅用到t时刻的各值，而且还将用到f-Δt，t-2Δt等各时刻的值。这样就可以提高数值积分时所用多项式的阶数，使得加速度在积分区间At内可以为时间的二次及三次函数；从而大大提高了解法的数值精度及解的稳定性，并且基本上不增加计算量。该法在数值计算上讲属于线性多步法。     

解三维空腔辐射传输问题的一种半随机模拟数值方法

ＩＣＦ最重要问题之一是计算内爆小球周围辐射场的不均匀度，为了精确地计算此类问题，提出一种把ＭｏｎｔｅＣａｒｌｏ方法与迭代方法耦合计算的数值模拟方法。对计算格式进行了详细讨论，并给出若干数值例子。     

多时间步长结冰数值模拟方法研究

时间步长是影响飞机结冰数值模批精度的重要参数之一。本文通过求解雷诺时均N-S方程，湍流模型采用k-ε两方程模型，获得空气流场，求解水滴运动轨迹方程获得水滴撞击特性，基于Messinger热力学模型求解能量和质量守恒方程计算冰形。并采用扇形分区法，更新机翼前缘结冰区网格，保持网格拓扑结构不变，实现多时间步长结冰数值计算。比较了采用单时间步长法争多时间步长法对翼型表面结冰增长数值模拟的计算结果，并与冰风洞试验数据及LEWICE预测数据进行对比。在此基础上，计算分析了不同时间步长对部件表面的结冰冰形的影响。结果表明，只有采用多时间步长法进行飞机结冰数值模拟方是有效的，并且存在一个合适的时间步长，既满足计算精度要求，又能提高计算效率。     

非线性常微分方程的计算不确定性原理--Ⅰ.数值结果

在大多数解初值问题的长时间数值积分计算中很少考虑由于机器的有限精度所导致的舍入误差，利用２９种标准的数值方法，通过大量的数值试验深入考察了舍入误差的影响，发现在有限的机器精度下数值求解非线性常微分方程初值问题存在对机器精度强的依赖性（是与对初值敏感依赖性不同的一种新的依赖性）提出一种计算有限精度下数值方法的最大有效计算时间和最优步长的最优搜索法，得到最大有效计算时间和最优步长与数值方法的阶数及机器     

复杂环境下的浅埋暗挖洞室监测及数值计算研究

以深圳地铁3号线老街站东端站台扩建工程为例，通过对复杂环境下进行浅埋暗挖临时洞室开挖及长期使用过程中的现场监测，得到洞室围岩的位移以及地面沉降量的大小。基于FLAC3D有限差分软件中的Morh-Coulomb准则，对浅埋暗挖洞室引起的围岩变形进行数值计算。将数值计算结果与监测结果进行对比，证明了FLAC3D在此方面的可行性；为现场施工提供了合理的依据。     

百叶窗式翅片散热器的数值模拟和实验研究

先对百叶窗式翅片散热器进行了理论计算；然后对其物理模型进行合理的简化处理，利用ANSYS软件，采用SIMPLE算法和标准k-ε湍流模型，通过求解三维N-S方程和能量方程模拟了散热器的散热过程；最后进行了试验研究。试验测试和理论计算、数值模拟三者数据基本吻合，说明数值模拟方法能真实反映百叶窗式翅片散热器的传热特性，为散热器的设计和改进提供理论依据。     

耦合多水动力过程的二维山坡产汇流数值模型及其在壤中流模拟中的应用

基于物理性水分运动方程的山坡产汇流数值模型是进行降雨产流机制和规律研究的重要工具，当前还缺乏耦合地表水、土壤水和地下水多水动力过程的、具有较高计算效率和稳定性的二维山坡产汇流数值模型．本研究耦合地表水流动的圣维南方程组、变饱和土壤水分运动的Richards方程，采用有限差分法，对边界条件进行了改进，建立了THRM模型，对实验山坡实测壤中流过程有很好的模拟效果，通过数值试验揭示了边界条件、网格大小、初始含水率等对计算稳定性和计算效果的影响规律，所建模型对于山坡产流研究有应用价值，分析结论对壤中流数值模拟有参考意义．     

熔液法晶体生长流场的数值模拟

本文给出了对二种熔液法生长晶体的液相流场进行的计算机模拟的结果，对ＣＺ法晶体生长的一常流场数值计算，采用了二阶迎风ＱＵＩＣＫ差分格式的有限控制体积法，通过对１２种不同参数的流场情况所作的计算表明，二阶ＱＵＩＣＫ格式具有更高的计算精度和数值稳定性。     

新型进料喷嘴雾化性能数值模拟及冷态实验研究

为了改善喷嘴的雾化效果和研究其喷雾过程，对干气雾化进料喷嘴的雾化粒度及均匀性进行了数值仿真和冷态实验研究。利用相位多普勒粒子分析仪，在不同流量下，对喷雾场内不同点的算术平均直径、面积平均直径、体积平均直径、索太尔平均直径以及粒子速度在空间内的分布进行了测量。采用计算流体力学（CFD）方法对冷态喷雾流场进行了数值仿真。通过实验研究和理论计算两种手段，初步探讨了喷嘴的雾化性能的优劣。经过对比分析，实验研究实验结果与数值模拟结果基本一致。结果表明，实验研究和数值仿真的结果均可为喷嘴的设计和优化提供一定依据和参考。同时，本文简述了进料喷嘴的结构和采用的关键技术、冷态试验装置、测量设备和应用前景。     

结构随机响应计算的一种数值方法

摘要应用降维数值积分和C型Gram．Charlier级数展开方法，基于有限元理论讨论了随机结构响应概率分布的计算问题．首先依据正交多项式权函数与随机变量概率密度函数的关系，给出了随机响应统计矩计算的降维数值积分公式；进而应用C型Gram—Charlier级数逼近获得了随机响应的概率密度函数；提出了基于有限元方法求取结构随机响应概率分布的计算流程．数值算例中介绍了平面十杆桁架结构最大位移的概率分布、由随机参数表征的某型车架固有频率计算和弯管结构随机VonMises应力分析问题，所得结果同蒙特卡罗数值模拟结果进行了对比验证．结果表明：文中计算流程能够获得较为准确的随机响应概率分布，特别是对概率分布尾部的估计精度达到10^-44-10^-3数量级，为机械结构安全性分析与设计打下基础；同时，算法的计算效率较高，与传统的数值模拟方法相比通常能够节约计算资源消耗两个数量级以上；第三，算法流程实现简单，不需要计算结构响应对基本随机参数的梯度和二阶灵敏度信息，也不需要对结构有限元矩阵的修改，因此可以充分发挥现有成熟有限元程序的优点，在个人计算机上实现工程随机问题的分析与计算．     

交会对接载人组合体热管理技术研究

组合体热管理是优化交会对接载人组合体热控设计,实现长期载人热环境控制的重要手段.在对目标飞行器和载人飞船组合体热特性分析的基础上,提出了以舱段间通风为技术手段的交会对接载人组合体热管理方案,并结合热平衡试验数据,建立了组合体热管理系统分析模型.仿真结果、地面热平衡试验数据和在轨飞行数据表明,组合体密封舱内空气流速分布满足要求,温度在19~26°C可调,空气相对湿度在30%~70%范围内,验证了交会对接载人组合体热管理设计的正确性.最后对空间站等复杂组合体热管理设计提出了建议.     

Elaboration of an in vivo model, in half life size, for aeronautical purposes]

Toxic effects of combustion products originating from plane cabin constituents are studied, in vivo, in Rats. The model associates an important combustion room, and an experience room containing eight revolving cages for Rats; these cages allow a remote control of the movements of the Rats which can be electrically stimulated and ejected. Such a device permits to study the incapacitance, i.e. the inability to move. For the combustion of a seat, without ventilation, incapacitation appears in 2 to 6 min. Biochemical screening demonstrates on increase of pCO2, carboxyhemoglobin and glycemia and a decrease of pO2.     

大型客机座舱快速制冷／加温计算方法研究

以某大型客机座舱为例，取座舱空气为控制对象，在考虑舱壁、座椅及设备热容的基础上，通过建立座舱传热控制方程，对地面停机工况时极热／板冷条件下的座舱快速制冷／加温过程进行了计算研究，并分析了供气温度、供气流量和附加干扰等因素的影响。研究工作对于大型客机环境控制系统初步方案的选择、优化设计具有参考价值。     

Parsimonious modeling and forecasting of corporate yield curve

This paper investigates the sensitivity of out‐of‐sample forecasting performance over a span of different parameters of l in the dynamic Nelson–Siegel three‐factor AR(1) model. First, we find that the ad hoc selection of l is not optimal. Second, we find a substantial difference in factor dynamics between investment‐grade and speculative‐grade corporate bonds from 1994:12 to 2006: 4. Third, we suggest that the three‐factor model is sufficient to explain the main variations of corporate yield changes. Finally, the parsimonious Nelson–Siegel three‐factor AR(1) model remains competitive in the out‐of‐sample forecasting of corporate yields. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

斜齿三星轮装载机构的谐响应分析

为了研究斜齿三星轮装载机构的动力学行为,利用更新的拉格朗日法建立了钭齿三星轮的力学模型、用Ansys软件创建了星轮机构的模型,由谐响应分析给出了不同激振频率下的星轮等效应力云图以及星轮机构位移响应随频率变化的曲线,由此得到了星轮机构的最大应力,确定了发生应力集中的位置和星轮稳定运行的转速,为研究斜齿三星轮的动力学性质以及改进该型星轮装载机构的设计奠定了基础.     

Modeling and forecasting time series with a general non-normal distribution

We propose a model for time series with a general marginal distribution given by the Johnson family of distributions. We investigate for which Johnson distributions forecasting using the model is likely to be most effective compared to using a linear model. Monte Carlo simulation is used to assess the reliability of methods for determining which of the three Johnson forms is most appropriate for a given series. Finally, we give model fitting and forecasting results using the modeling procedure on a selection of simulated and real time series.     

Co-integration,error correction and improved medium-term regional VAR forecasting

This study investigates possible improvements in medium-term VAR forecasting of state retail sales and personal income when the two series are co-integrated and represent an error-correction system. For each of North Carolina and New York, three regional vector autoregression (VAR) models are specified; an unrestricted two-equation model consisting of the two state variables, a five-equation unrestricted model with three national variables added and a Bayesian (BVAR) version of the second model. For each state, the co-integration and error-correction relationship of the two state variables is verified and an error-correction version of each model specified. Twelve successive ex ante five-year forecasts are then generated for each of the state models. The results show that including an error-correction mechanism when statistically significant improves medium-term forecasting accuracy in every case.     

History of the Lenz-Ising Model 1920–1950: From Ferromagnetic to Cooperative Phenomena

I chart the considerable changes in the status and conception of the Lenz-Ising model from 1920 to 1950 in terms of three phases: In the early 1920s, Lenz and Ising introduced the model in the field of ferromagnetism. Based on an exact derivation, Ising concluded that it is incapable of displaying ferromagnetic behavior, a result he erroneously extended to three dimensions. In the next phase, Lenz and Isings contemporaries rejected the model as a representation of ferromagnetic materials because of its conflict with the new quantum mechanics. In the third phase, from the early 1930s to the early 1940s, the model was revived as a model of cooperative phenomena. I provide more detail on this history than the earlier accounts of Brush (1967) and Hoddeson, Schubert, Heims, and Baym (1992) and question some of their conclusions. Moreover, my account differs from these in its focus on the development of the model in its capacity as a model. It examines three aspects of this development: (1) the attitudes on the degree of physical realism of the Lenz-Ising model in its representation of physical phenomena; (2) the various reasons for studying and using it; and (3) the effect of the change in its theoretical basis during the transition from the old to the new quantum mechanics. A major theme of my study is that even though the Lenz-Ising model is not fully realistic, it is more useful than more realistic models because of its mathematical tractability. I argue that this point of view, important for the modern conception of the model, is novel and that its emergence, while perhaps not a consequence of its study, is coincident with the third phase of its development.     

铝锂合金高速铣削表面完整性实验研究

铝锂合金密度低、比强度高、比刚度高等优良特性使得其成为新一代航空航天飞行器的主要结构材料.飞机蒙皮作为维持飞机外形的主要结构件,在飞机起飞降落过程中承受舱内外压差变化所引起的交变载荷作用,因此对于蒙皮结构零件的疲劳强度要求十分苛刻.零件的疲劳裂纹萌生往往是从表面的微观缺陷开始,并且表层以及亚表层的力学状态将影响裂纹萌生以及扩展速度.表面完整性包括表面的几何轮廓、显微硬度、金相组织、残余应力等,这些因素综合影响着零件的疲劳性能.与此同时,表面完整性表征参数与被加工材料属性、热处理状态以及加工工艺等具有密切的联系.研究了铝锂合金的机械铣削加工工艺对于其表面完整性的影响.传统蒙皮结构加工往往采用化学铣削的方法进行,占用厂房面积大,污染严重,废液处理费用高等,不符合现代可持续绿色制造的理念.目前对于铝锂合金的超塑成形工艺研究较多却鲜见有相关铝锂合金切削表面完整方面的相关研究.研究在干切情况与液氮冷却情况下切削三要素以及上一道滚压工艺对于表面完整性的影响,通过正交试验的方法全面考察了工艺参数对于表面形貌各个指标、表层亚表层金相组织以及残余应力的影响权重,并且验证了其显著性.比较了干切与液氮低温切削情况下表面形貌以及残余应力状态的异同点,验证了液氮冷却切削对于铝锂合金表面完整性提升的有效性,为提高铝锂合金疲劳性能提供了实验依据.     

Modeling multivariate co integrated systems: Insights from non-linear dynamics

Johansen's test for co integration is applied to Litterman's original six-variable Bayesian vector auto regression (BVAR) model to obtain vector error correction mechanism (VECM) and Bayesian error correction (BECM) versions of the model. The Brock, Dechert, and Scheinkman (BDS) test for independence from the non-linear dynamics literature is then applied to the error structures of each estimated equation of the BECM and VECM models, plus two BVAR versions of the model. The results show that none of the models produce independent and identically distributed (IID) errors for all six equations. However, the BDS results suggest the elimination of the Bayesian prior from the BECM model, given that the univariate VECM errors are IID in five equations, compared to only two or three equations under the three Bayesian restricted models. These results combined with previous evidence regarding the superior forecasting performance of BECM over ECM models suggest future experimentation with less restrictive BVAR priors, BECM models corrected for heteroscedasticity, or hybrid specifications based on the nonlinear dynamics literature.