WRF模式微物理方案对强降水预报的影响

本文利用新一代中尺度非静力模式WRF(V2.1.2版本),采用单向两重嵌套方案,粗细网格距分别为12km、4km,对我国江淮流域2003年7月4日～5日一次典型强降水天气过程进行微物理方案的敏感性试验。从降水落区、降水中心位置和强度方面对总降水预报性能进行了对比,同时结合卫星资料、地面自动站雨量等非常规观测资料,对比分析了模拟的滁州地区降水随时间的变化及1小时降水率的空间分布,研究不同分辨率下模式微物理方案对强降水预报的影响。所得的结论对于我国夏季强降水预报和中尺度模式微物理过程在业务和研究方面有一定的参考价值。     

台风期间台湾岛周边海域海面风场特征的卫星遥感研究

利用1999~2005年QuikSCAT卫星遥感资料,对台风期间三种台风路径下台湾岛周边海域海面风场变化特征及成因进行了分析.结果表明,尽管台风强度被不同程度低估,台风中心附近风向反演受降雨影响明显,但遥感海面风场的大致形态仍较为合理.地形对风场特征的形成有着显著作用,它导致了台湾海峡内大风(>10 m/s)天气提前出现、中央山脉两侧背风槽(或诱生低压)形成、中央山脉两端下风面“角流”形成等现象.海峡内大风天气是否提前出现与台风中心的位置有关.不同台风路径下,“角流”和背风槽的位置和范围不同.     

中国及其邻近地区中尺度对流系统的普查和时空…

将中尺度对流系统（ＭＣＳ）的普查工作从数量较少的中尺度对流复合体（ＭＣＣ）扩大到更为普遍的中－α尺度（ＭαＣＳ）和中－β尺度（ＭβＣＳ）的中尺度对流系统，通过对１９９３￣１９９５年３年夏季ＧＭＳ卫星红外云图的普查，共获得２３４个ＭαＣＳ和５８５个ＭβＣＳ，并给出了代表性较好的ＭＣＳ的地理分布。发现黄河和长江中下游地区也是ＭαＣＳ的多发区以及ＭαＣＳ存在两种不同的生命史，一种和ＭＣＣ相同，发生于夜间     

一次春季暴雨不稳定条件和对流触发机制的数值模拟研究

2003 年 4 月中旬发生在山东一带的中尺度对流系统引发了一次罕见的春季大暴雨。在不稳定的大尺度环境中,触发条件决定了对流系统在何时、何地发生。触发条件通常位于近地面层中,水平尺度也很小,常规资料无法揭示出来。为此,采用数值模拟和数值模拟敏感性试验并结合客观分析对它的发生机理进行了诊断。结果表明,此次暴雨是由 MCS（中尺度对流系统）的两次发展造成的。第 1 次是比较典型的华北 MCC（中尺度对流复合体）过程,它是由地形强迫抬升触发了初始对流。第 2 次初始对流是由午后的边界层辐合线触发的,从华北平原南下的浅薄冷空气也起了重要作用。另外,最大对流有效位能（MCAPE）对初始对流的发生位置有很好的指示意义。     

登陆台风中的中尺度对流系统的数值研究

应用Penn State/NCAR高分辨率中尺度模式MM5,成功模拟出1996-08-03 到 05 Herb(1996)台风登陆后,发生在河北及周边地区台风低压暴雨中的两个连续发展的中α尺度对流系统的演变和结构,它们与降水量实况有很好地对应。由此根据模式输出结果分析了这两个中尺度对流系统(MCS)的中尺度结构和特点,最后给出了登陆台风低压暴雨的MCS结构模型;在MCS成熟期,低层大尺度的低空急流(LLJ)中出现中尺度扰动,即中尺度低空急流(mLLJ), mLLJ的左前方产生强辐合和上升运动,在上升气流的高空出流区域产生中尺度高空急流(mULJ),这种mULJ在常规观测资料中被验证。mULJ的右后方有强辐散发生。     

模式湿物理过程的组合对一次南京大暴雨降水模拟的影响分析

以第五代中尺度模式（MM5）为基础,本文对一次南京大暴雨个例进行了三组数值模拟试验,研究了模式湿物理过程参数化方案的组合对梅雨暴雨降水预报的影响.试验结果表明：模式的积云对流参数化方案的选用对南京大暴雨的预报至关重要,积云对流参数化方案的选用比边界层参数化对暴雨数值预报的影响大;对20km模式分辨率而言,采用单一的积云...     

2008年残奥会一次预报失败天气个例的数值模拟不确定性研究

2008年9月14日一个飑线袭击北京, 城区发生了短时雷雨和大风天气, 而当时的天气预报失败。利用WRF (weather research and forecasting)模式和ARPS (advanced regional prediction system)模式的资料分析系统ADAS (ARPS data analysis system), 研究了模式水平分辨率, 不同观测资料(风云2C卫星资料、MICAPS数据、GTS (global telecommunication system)数据)同化所产生的初始场对这次飑线过程模拟的敏感性。结果表明, 15 km模式分辨率不能模拟出北京的降雨过程, 而5 km水平分辨率模式均能模拟出北京的降雨过程, 只是降雨落区和强度有所不同。不用资料同化的对照试验不能模拟出城区主要降水区。使用资料同化系统ADAS后, 降水落区均有改善。MICAPS资料中河套地区一个探空站的加入, 使得初值中河套地区的东北风比控制试验强, 模拟的飑线比控制试验偏南, 和实况更加接近。     

1998年6月“两湖”降水过程的数值模拟

运用中尺度η坐标暴雨模式(简称MEM),采用常规报文资料获得初始场,运用包络地形方法获得模式所需的地形资料,对1998年6月“两湖”降水过程进行了数值模拟。结果表明,该模式对形势场的模拟较好,MEM的TS评分结果明显高于国内目前业务运用中的主要模式,模式对暴雨有较强的模拟能力。无地形试验表明地形对降水预报有显著的作用,尤其中尺度地形对暴雨预报和模拟有重要的作用。     

卫星遥测纬向剖面地形谱分析--青藏高原背风侧地区地形扰动与西风扰动的耦合模态

遥感地形资料具有空间离散分布特点,因此根据离散谱空间变换中谱能不变性约束下的谱分析方法,研究了遥感地形谱空间域分布基本特征和地形强迫对大气受迫运动的作用机制．并通过定义地形扰动和地形扰动特征尺度的概念,发现位于青藏高原背风侧的我国中东部地区纬向(东西向)剖面地形扰动特征尺度在454.5km,即该地区地形扰动可以定义为中α尺度扰动(比照大气尺度分类);地形扰动尺度与该地区主要致灾天气系统MαCS(Meso-α Convective System,中α尺度对流系统)尺度上的一致性揭示了地形对于MαCS的触发作用．进一步通过对卫星遥感离散地形场测度进行分形学分析,计算出该区域纬向剖面分数维为1.26,说明该地区地形的基本分形元是Koch三角生成元,即青藏高原背风侧地区剖面地形强迫作用机制本质上是基本西风气流与三角形元组合型山脉剖面障碍物相互作用的结果．这种相互作用的物理图象表现为：在我国青藏高原背风侧地区,冬季和夏季700hPa纬向平均风速扰动谱最强峰与地形扰动谱最强峰存在着明显的地形-纬向风速偶合关系,地形-纬向风速共振模态是该地区冬季纬向环流扰动的典型触发机制;而夏季,地形一纬向风速偶合模态转变为向小尺度漂移的高阻尼模态．同时,地形和纬向风速的分形分析表明,关于地形强迫下的受迫扰动的偶合模态和强迫机制的结论,具有尺度的串级和自相似性,可外推到未观测到的更精细的尺度上．     

单多普勒雷达VAP方法反演水平风场的检验

利用长江中下游外场实验的多普勒雷达联合观测资料,检验使用VAP（Velocity-Azimuth Process）方法反演中-β尺度（20～200km）水平风场的可靠性。局地均匀风假定的合理 性分析表明,在125km以内VAP方法反演的水平风场的分辨率可以满足中-β尺度(20～200km)分辨率的需求。多种方式检验表明,单多普勒雷达VAP方法反演出的水平风场可以正确地反映风场中的中-β尺度结构,作为分析中尺度风场信息的依据。     

浙江地形对台风Khanun影响的数值试验和机理分析

以2005年严重影响我国华东地区的登陆台风Khanun为研究对象,利用MM5模式对其登陆浙江过程进行了数值模拟,通过模拟结果和实况的对比表明,模式对台风路径和降水的模拟是成功的,在台风移向移速、暴雨强度和落区上与实况十分吻合,但在台风强度模拟上则较实况偏小.在控制试验比较成功的基础上,本文还设计了3个敏感性试验,分析了浙江地形对台风路径、强度和降水的影响及其机理,它们分别为地形加倍、减半和无地形试验.试验结果表明,浙江地形对台风Khanun移动路径没有显著影响,这可能与浙江地形高度较低和环境场强引导气流有关.在降水强度上,浙江地形对暴雨的增幅作用十分显著,由地形强迫产生的降水和地形走向相一致.迎风坡由于地形动力抬升作用有利于上升运动加强,使得对流发展旺盛,降雨量增加,背风坡降雨量减少,浙江中北部沿海地区由于地形强迫产生了与台风环流同位向的扰动使得台风环流明显增强,形成暴雨中心.有无地形影响下的螺旋度对比显示,暴雨增幅区与低层正螺旋度差值区和高层负螺旋度差值区相对应,螺旋度差这种高低层耦合是触发和维持台风暴雨的动力机制,有利于台风螺旋结构的维持和强降水的发生.     

Numerical simulation on mesoscale convective system along Mei-Yu front in Southern China

A mesoscale convective system (MCS) was generated over the South China Sea at around 115°E, 21°N on 0000 UTC 7 June 1998. Riding along the Mei-Yu front, the system moved through the Taiwan Strait and finally hit the southern part of the Taiwan Island, produced over 300 mm of rainfall over parts of Taiwan in the next 24 hours. It was found that the Penn State-NCAR Mesoscale Model Version 5 (MM5) did quite well in simulating the evolution of the MCS. Diagnostic studies on the mesoscale structure of MCS, moisture concentration process and the momentum budget were based on the model output. The concept model of the MCS in the mature phase can be concluded as the following: At the 850 hPa level, the mesoscale low level jet (mLLJ) was found to the southwest of the MCS, which was also associated with a mesoscale low generated by convection, the mesoscale upper level jet (mULJ) was found due east of the MCS (and an upper-level mesoscale high) at the 300 hPa level. Horizontal advection of momentum acted to accelerate the exit of the mLLJ but decelerate the entrance of the mLLJ where the pressure gradient force acted to compensate this lost and maintain its strength. For maintenance of the mULJ, vertical advection of momentum and the pressure gradient force were both found to be important.     

Model evaluations for winter orographic clouds with observations

The Real-Time Four-Dimensional Data Assimilation (RT-FDDA) system is used for orographic snowpack enhancement.The model has three nested domains with the grid spacing of 18,6 and 2 km.To evaluate the simulations of winter orographic clouds and precipitation,comparisons are made between model simulations and observations to determine how the model simulates the cloud distribution,cloud height,cloud vertical profiles and snow precipitation.The simulated results of the 02:00 UTC cycling with 2-km resolution are used in the comparison.The observations include SNOTEL,ceilometer,sounding and satellite data,from the ground to air.The verification of these observations indicates that the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) RT-FDDA system provides good simulations.It is better to use data within the forecast period of 2-16 h simulations.Although the horizontal wind component near the ground has some bias,and the simulated clouds are a little higher and have a little more coverage than observed,the simulated precipitation is a little weaker than observed.The results of the comparison show that the WRF RT-FDDA model provides good simulations and can be used in orographic cloud seeding.     

Numerical study on structure of meso-β scale rainstorm system during IOP523 of HUAMEX

One of the scientific goals of HUAMEX (Torrential Rainfall Experiment over Both Sides of the Taiwan Strait and Adjacent Area), a special project in th e National "863" Scientific Project, is to reveal meso- scale structure of heavy rainfall. However, limited by the observational instruments, the resolution of the data attained from the outfield scientific observation network cannot reveal the meso-scale structure. A 36-h numerical simulation of heavy rainfall case from May 23 to May 24, 1998 during IOP523 of HUAMEX was performed by the mesosc ale numerical model of PSU/NCAR MM5, and the meso- scale structure of convective system was examined based on the model output in this note. The results point out that the meso- scale features of the heavy rainfall are clear considerably at low, middle and upper levels, respectively. There is a strong ageostrophic feature between the geopotential height field and the wind field on the upper leve l. The vertical cross sections of 54 km coarse grid and 18 km fine grid both sho w the vertical circulation cells of the rainstorm clearly, which include a desce nding middle-level rear inflow and strong ascending low-level inflow. More impor tantly, the 18 km fine grid vertical section reveals another shallow vertical ci rculation cell in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) below 900 hPa, which relate s to the draggle flow resulting from the falling raindrops.     

Numerical simulation of topography effects on the "00.7" severe rainfall in Beijing

In an effort to study the severe rainfall event of 4-5th July 2000 in Beijing (with 24h accumulated precipitation of 240 mm), we perform numerical simulations to investigate this event using the MM5v3.6 model. The model is initialized with the MM5/WRF 3DVAR analysis, which incorporates the ground-based GPS precipitable water vapor, automatic and conventional meteorological observations in its assimilation step. For 24 h accumulated precipitation forecast, the threat scores are 0.72, 0.76, 0.67 and 0.63, for thresholds of 1, 5, 10, and 20 mm, respectively. Holding other factors unchanged, sensitivity experiments were conducted with different topographic resolutions of 110, 50 and 3.7 km to investigate the topographic effects on precipitation over the Beijing area. In these sensitivity experiments, we attempt to preserve the realistic orographic distribution in the model topography under the condition of keeping the dynamic-thermodynamic consistency of the initial model atmosphere to the extent possible. Results indicate that the unique topographic distribution and variations in the Beijing area play an important role in determining the location, distribution and intensity of heavy precipitation.     

Numerical simulation of topography effects on the “00.7” severe rainfall in Beijing

In an effort to study the severe rainfall event of 4?5th July 2000 in Beijing (with 24h accumulated precipitation of 240 mm), we perform numerical simulations to investigate this event using the MM5v3.6 model. The model is initialized with the MM5/WRF 3DVAR analysis, which incorporates the ground-based GPS precipitable water vapor, automatic and conventional meteorological observations in its assimilation step. For 24 h accumulated precipitation forecast, the threat scores are 0.72, 0.76, 0.67 and 0.63, for thresholds of 1, 5, 10, and 20 mm, respectively. Holding other factors unchanged, sensitivity experiments were conducted with different topographic resolutions of 110, 50 and 3.7 km to investigate the topographic effects on precipitation over the Beijing area. In these sensitivity experiments, we attempt to preserve the realistic orographic distribution in the model topography under the condition of keeping the dynamic-thermodynamic consistency of the initial model atmosphere to the extent possible. Results indicate that the unique topographic distribution and variations in the Beijing area play an important role in determining the location, distribution and intensity of heavy precipitation.     

一次短历时特大暴雨系统的高分辨率卫星图像

利用水平分辨率为1.25km的FY2-C地球同步卫星的可见光云图,对2005年8月14日发生在北京北部山区一次百年一遇的短历时特大暴雨进行了云图分析,发现高分辨率的可见光云图可以在一个多小时前就识别出水平尺度只有几公里的初始对流,并可利用它在地面上的阴影判别其垂直发展的强度。暴雨发生前水平尺度发展到数十公里,其云顶上的暗影表明强烈的对流已突破对流层顶。     

宁夏一次大到暴雨过程成因分析

利用地面、高空常规观测资料、数值预报物理量场以及卫星、雷达、自动站等资料,综合分析了2009年8月18日发生在宁夏的全区性大到暴雨过程．分析表明,台风“环高”的生成发展与西太平洋副高（简称副高）之间的相互作用,形成了有利宁夏降水的“东高西低”的环流形势,在副高东退过程中宁夏出现明显降水．500hPa短波槽和700hPa低涡是造成降水的天气系统．降水期间,中低层有明显的水汽和不稳定能量输送,且存在层结不稳定条件;云图中有多个中小尺度对流云团先后影响;雷达回波图上,此次降水过程表现为混合性降水,强降水由多个强度35～40dBz的强回波块影响造成,出现强降水的站点附近有“逆风区”或明显的气流辐合区存在,有明显的中小尺度上升运动,在雷达反演的风廓线可分析出“低层暖平流,高层冷平流”的配置．     

2010年云南“6.25”特大暴雨中尺度特征及成因的数值模拟分析

 使用1°×1°NCEP再分析资料、TBB黑体亮温资料和自动站逐时降水资料,应用MM5V3.6中尺度数值模式对2010年6月25日发生在云南曲靖马龙罕见的特大暴雨进行数值模拟,主要从动力结构和不稳定机制研究本次特大暴雨的中尺度特征及其成因.研究表明：降水发生期间中低层有较强的水汽辐合柱存在,强降水发生前中低层积累了较大的对流不稳定能量,近地层辐合线的形成诱发中低层辐合的产生,强烈的垂直上升运动促使对流不稳定能量迅速释放,触发强对流降水,高层辐散中低层辐合形成的“抽吸作用”以及利于垂直上升运动和降水的维持.地形敏感试验表明,近地层辐合线出现的位置与云南地形有很大的关系,从而影响强对流暴雨的落区.