车用锂离子动力电池剩余寿命非线性组合预测研究

针对单一预测模型难以准确预测锂电池的剩余寿命（remaining useful life, RUL）难题,提出了非线性组合预测方法;利用相空间重构,对实验采集到的数据进行重构,将重构后的数据对改进Elman神经网络和非线性自回归（nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous input,NARX）神经网络这2个单项预测模型进行训练和预测;采用RBF神经网络对2个单项模型的预测值进行非线性组合,获得最终的RUL预测值．结果表明:非线性组合预测方法的均方根误差比PCA-NARX方法提高了近1%,比NARX方法提高了近2%,比改进Elman方法提高了近3%;非线性组合预测方法具有较高的精度及泛化能力,采用相空间重构技术有利于提高非线性组合方法的预测精度．      

人工神经网络在潮汐预测中应用研究

海洋环境中,精确预测潮汐是关系到建筑物和人类活动的重要工作.利用人工神经网络进行单测站潮位和多测站对应潮位预测,并结合潮汐现象的特点,提出了在预测之前有针对性的数据处理分析方法--周期分析概念,并将其应用到实际的潮位预测当中,实例证明这种方法可以解决潮位预测中存在的时滞问题,提高了预测的精度.同时根据不同测站潮汐数据之间的相关性,以及潮汐数据规律性较强这一特点,进行了不同潮位测站之间的对应潮位预测,取得了很好的结果.     

基于非线性有源自回归神经网络的路面不平度识别

针对传统方法在识别路面不平度时需要消耗大量的人力物力且识别精度不理想等问题,该文提出一种基于非线性有源自回归(NARX)神经网络识别路面不平度的方法。使用ADAMS软件建立某SUV车型的整车模型。以左前与右后悬架动挠度、车身绕质心俯仰角位移、车身绕质心侧倾角速度、左前与右后车轮垂直加速度以及车身质心垂直加速度共7个车辆响应的数据样本点作为NARX神经网络的输入,以对应的路面不平度作为NARX神经网络的输出,建立NARX神经网络模型。通过仿真得到相关系数为97.577%,均方根误差为0.003 7。另取A、B、C、D 4种不同等级路面下的车辆响应,带入训练好的NARX神经网络。结果表明,NARX神经网络对4种等级的路面识别的相关系数均在90%以上。     

基于CEEMDAN算法及NARX神经网络的短期负荷预测

为了提高电力负荷预测精度,提出一种基于自适应噪声的完全集成经验模态分解(complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise,简称CEEMDAN)算法和外部输入非线性自回归(nonlinear auto regressive with exogenous inputs,简称NARX)神经网络的短期负荷预测模型.首先,通过CEEMDAN算法对电力负荷原始信号进行分解,得到若干个本征模态函数分量和1个残差分量;然后,将得到的若干个本征模态函数分量和1个残差分量输入NARX神经网络进行预测;最后,将各分量的预测结果进行叠加得到短期负荷预测的最终结果.实验结果表明:CEEMDAN算法与NARX神经网络相结合的负荷预测模型有较强的收敛性能,能减少噪声对预测结果的不良影响、有效提高预测精度.     

基于潮汐调和分析的全球定位系统-多路径反射测量技术潮位预报

基于全球定位系统的多路径反射(GPS-MR)测量技术的潮位监测已经成为验潮站监测的有效补充,但较少学者利用GPS-MR反演潮位进行潮汐调和分析和预报.为了验证GPS-MR潮位预报的可能性,利用美国大陆板块边缘观测组织(PBO)提供的GPS信噪比数据进行潮位反演,将该反演结果重采样为等间隔潮位序列,利用该潮位序列计算各分潮的调和常数,并进行潮汐预报.通过与美国海洋与大气局(NOAA)提供的实测验潮数据进行对比,结果表明:GPS-MR反演潮位与验潮站实测潮位具有一致性,相关系数为0.94,均方根误差为0.16 m;经样条函数拟合后的1 h GPS-MR潮位序列预测结果同采用验潮站潮位进行预测结果精度相当,同验潮站实测潮位的均方根误差为0.14 m,相关系数为0.97.可见,利用GPS-MR技术进行潮位监测和预报是可行的.     

两种改进的GM(2,1)模型及其在船舶横摇预报中的应用

实时准确地预报船舶横摇运动是目前船舶运动研究的一个重要课题,对于提高船舶的耐波性和适航性具有重要的意义.灰色GM(2,1)模型有2个指数分量,能反映出序列摆动的运动情况,但预测精度仍然不足.因此在GM(2,1)模型对非线性复杂横摇运动进行建模及预测的基础上,基于误差补偿的思想,用周期外延和神经网络2种方法分别对灰色模型进行改进.仿真结果表明,灰色-周期外延组合预测模型和灰色-BP神经网络组合预测模型均能准确有效地预报船舶横摇运动,进一步提高灰色模型的预测精度,为船舶减摇控制打下了良好基础,具有实用价值.     

基于模块化神经网络的船舶航迹航速预测

为提高船舶航迹航速预测精度,提出一种模块化神经网络MNN(modular neural network)船舶航迹航速预测方法。首先,利用归一化互信息与专家知识确定预测目标的辅助变量从而分解任务;然后,将RBF(radial basis function)神经网络和Elman神经网络用于子网络搭建,使用减法聚类算法确定初始子网络结构,在此基础上提出误差反馈方法将RBF神经网络训练的最大误差所对应的样本作为隐含层新增神经元并通过粒子群算法PSO(particle swarm optimization)优化RBF神经网络学习参数,运用性能函数动态调整Elman神经网络隐含层神经元数目以此构造模块化神经网络对目标进行预测;最后,实验结果表明模块化神经网络预测精度与网络结构均优于传统BP与RBF神经网络,证明了所提方法的有效性。     

潮汐发电中调和分析与人工神经网络预测潮位

潮汐电站发电量与每日潮差的大小有关,通过对潮水位的预测,可以预估潮汐电站的发电量以及编制适合的发电计划。对现有的经典调和分析法和新兴起的人工神经网络潮位预测方法进行了比较分析,总结了两种方法的发展现状和存在的问题。分析表明,人工神经网络方法预测精度更高,和实测数据对比其具有更小的误差;调和分析误差稍大,但是满足国家海洋局规定的允许误差。调和分析法和人工神经网络法的预测结果均可应用于潮汐发电当中。     

基于PCA与RBF的建筑能耗预测建模

由于建筑能耗因子间存在非线性和高度冗余特性,传统预测方法很难消除数据之间冗余和捕捉非线性特征,导致预测精度较低.为了提高建筑能耗预测精度,提出一种将主成分分析(principal component analysis,PCA)和径向基函数(radial basic function,RBF)神经网络相结合的建筑能耗预测方法(PCA-RBF).利用PCA消除建筑能耗高维变量数据的相关性,并按累积贡献率提取主成分,将主成分作为RBF神经网络的输入进行训练学习.通过PCA避免了模型过多的输入导致的训练耗时长及预测精度较低的不足.通过将PCA-RBF模型方法应用于某办公建筑能耗的预测中,并与RBF神经网络及BP神经网络模型相比,实验结果表明PCARBF模型方法能有效提高建筑能耗预测精度.     

基于贝叶斯神经网络的带钢厚度预测与控制

采用贝叶斯统计学原理改进传统神经网络算法,通过在神经网络的目标函数中引入表示网络结构复杂性的约束项,避免网络的过拟合以提高网络的泛化能力.将改进的神经网络应用于济钢1700mm热连轧机带钢厚度预测中,其预报精度、训练时间和网络稳定性均优于传统神经网络预测;然后应用贝叶斯神经网络预测带钢塑性系数;最后将出口带钢厚度和带钢塑性系数的实时预测值综合应用于带钢热连轧厚度控制系统,改进了传统的厚度控制方式,进一步提高带钢质量.     

Markedness and its Interpretation in Language Use

Language markedness is a common phenomenon in languages, and is reflected from hearing, vision and sense, i.e. the variation in the three aspects such as phonology, morphology and semantics. This paper focuses on the interpretation of markedness in language use following the three perspectives, i.e. pragmatic interpretation, psychological interpretation and cognitive interpretation, with an aim to define the function of markedness.     

Lower Paleozoic oil relationships within Williston Basin, Canada

The Williston Basin is a significant petroleum province, containing oil production zones that include the Middle Cambrian to Lower Ordovician, Upper Ordovician, Middle Devonian, Upper Devonian and Mississippian and within the Jurassic and Cretaceous. The oils of the Williston Basin exhibit a wide range of geochemical characteristics defined as "oil families", although the geochemical signature of the Cambrian Deadwood Formation and Lower Ordovician Winnipeg reservoired oils does not match any "oil family". Despite their close stratigraphic proximity, it is evident that the oils of the Lower Palaeozoic within the Williston Basin are distinct. This suggests the presence of a new "oil family" within the Williston Basin. Diagnostic geochemical signatures occur in the gasoline range chromatograms, within saturate fraction gas chromatograms and biomarker fingerprints. However, some of the established criteria and cross-plots that are currently used to segregate oils into distinct genetic families within the basin do not always meet with success, particularly when applied to the Lower Palaeozoic oils of the Deadwood and Winnipeg Formation.     

An Analysis of Catherine＇s Character——Wuthering Heights

Wuthering Heights, Emily Bronte＇s only novel, was published in December of 1847 under the pseudonym Ellis Bell. The book did not gain immediate success, but it is now thought one of the finest novels in the English language. Catherine is the key character of this masterpiece, because everybody and everything center on her though she had a short life. We can understand this masterpiece better if we know Catherine well.     

Characterization of Ordovician carbonate reservoirs, southeastern Saskatchewan, Canada

The discovery of the prolific Ordovician Red River reservoirs in 1995 in southeastern Saskatchewan was the catalyst for extensive exploration activity which resulted in the discovery of more than 15 new Red River pools. The best yields of Red River production to date have been from dolomite reservoirs. Understanding the processes of dolomitization is, therefore, crucial for the prediction of the connectivity, spatial distribution and heterogeneity of dolomite reservoirs.The Red River reservoirs in the Midale area consist of 3～4 thin dolomitized zones, with a total thickness of about 20 m, which occur at the top of the Yeoman Formation. Two types of replacement dolomite were recognized in the Red River reservoir: dolomitized burrow infills and dolomitized host matrix. The spatial distribution of dolomite suggests that burrowing organisms played an important role in facilitating the fluid flow in the backfilled sediments. This resulted in penecontemporaneous dolomitization of burrow infills by normal seawater. The dolomite in the host matrix is interpreted as having occurred at shallow burial by evaporitic seawater during precipitation of Lake Almar anhydrite that immediately overlies the Yeoman Formation. However, the low δ18O values of dolomited burrow infills (-5.9‰～ -7.8‰, PDB) and matrix dolomites (-6.6‰～ -8.1‰, avg. -7.4‰ PDB) compared to the estimated values for the late Ordovician marine dolomite could be attributed to modification and alteration of dolomite at higher temperatures during deeper burial, which could also be responsible for its 87Sr/86Sr ratios (0.7084～0.7088) that are higher than suggested for the late Ordovician seawaters (0.7078～0.7080). The trace amounts of saddle dolomite cement in the Red River carbonates are probably related to "cannibalization" of earlier replacement dolomite during the chemical compaction.     

Design and analysis of generic LBS application developing platform

Location based services is promising due to its novel working style and contents.A software platform is proposed to provide application programs of typical location based services and support new applications developing efficiently. The analysis shows that this scheme is easy implemented, low cost and adapt to all kinds of mobile nework system.     

橡胶颗粒沥青混合料低温抗裂性试验研究

以AC-13级配为基础,将橡胶颗粒代替部分集料掺入混合料中,以低温弯曲试验为评价方法对不同橡胶颗粒掺量下沥青混合料的低温抗裂性进行研究,并引入应变能密度值对混合料的低温抗裂性进行综合评价.试验结果表明:橡胶颗粒沥青混合料试件的破坏微应变均超过2 300,满足冬寒区的技术指标;无论是否掺加橡胶颗粒,随着温度的下降,沥青混合料破坏时的最大弯拉强度增大,弯拉应变降低,劲度模量增大;弯曲应变能密度在胶粒掺量为1%左右时具有较大的弯曲应变能密度值,此时橡胶颗粒沥青混合料具有较好的低温抗裂性.     

A computer generator for randomly layered structures

AcomputergeneratorforrandomlylayeredstructuresYUJia shun1,2,HEZhen hua2(1.TheInstituteofGeologicalandNuclearSciences,NewZealand;2.StateKeyLaboratoryofOilandGasReservoirGeologyandExploitation,ChengduUniversityofTechnology,China)Abstract:Analgorithmisintrod…     

低渗透非均质砂岩油藏启动压力梯度研究

理论推导与室内实验相结合,建立了低渗透非均质砂岩油藏启动压力梯度确定方法。首先借助油藏流场与电场相似的原理,推导了非均质砂岩油藏启动压力梯度计算公式。其次基于稳定流实验方法,建立了非均质砂岩油藏启动压力梯度测试方法。结果表明:低渗透非均质砂岩油藏的启动压力梯度确定遵循两个等效原则。平面非均质油藏的启动压力梯度等于各级渗透率段的启动压力梯度关于长度的加权平均;纵向非均质油藏的启动压力梯度等于各渗透率层的启动压力梯度关于渗透率与渗流面积乘积的加权平均。研究成果可用于有效指导低渗透非均质砂岩油藏的合理井距确定,促进该类油藏的高效开发。     

Quantitative trait loci （QTLs） for quality traits related to protein and starch in wheat

Quality traits in wheat （Triticum aestirum L.） were studied by quantitative trait locus （QTL） analysis in a recombinant inbred line （RIL） population, a set of 131 lines derived from Chuan 35050 × Shannong 483 cross （ChSh）. Grains from RILs were assayed for 21 quality traits related to protein and starch. A total of 35 putative QTLs for 19 traits with a single QTL explaining 7.99-40.52% of phenotypic variations were detected on 10 chromosomes, 1D, 2A, 2D, 3B, 3D, 5A, 6A, 6B, 6D, and 7B. The additive effects of 30 QTLs were positive, contributed by Chuan 35050, the remaining 5 QTLs were negative with the additive effect contributed by Shannong 483. For protein traits, 15 QTLs were obtained and most of them were located on chromosomes 1 D, 3B and 6D, while 20 QTLs for starch traits were detected and most of them were located on chromosomes 3D, 6B and 7B. Only 7 QTLs for protein and starch traits were co-located in three regions on chromosomes 1D, 2A and 2D. These protein and starch trait QTLs showed a distinct distribution pattern in certain regions and chromosomes. Twenty-two QTLs were clustered in 6 regions of 5 chromosomes. Two QTL clusters for protein traits were located on chromosomes 1D and 3B, respectively, three clusters for starch traits on chromosomes 3D, 6B and 7B, and one cluster including protein and starch traits on chromosome 1D.     

On Tragic Consciousness In The Works By Ernest Hemingway

As an American modern novelist who were famous in the literary world, Hemingway was not a person who always followed the trend but a sharp observer. At the same time, he was a tragedy maestro, he paid great attention on existence, fate and end-result. The dramatis personae's tragedy of his works was an extreme limit by all means tragedy on the meaning of fearless challenge that failed. The beauty of tragedy was not produced on the destruction of life, but now this kind of value was in the impact activity. They performed for the reader about the tragedy on challenging for the limit and the death.