地球的韵律——谈气候脉动的自然机制及影响

文章试图通过对太阳周期性变化影响下的各类气候事件、小冰期、冰期——间冰期周期性气候脉动规律的均衡趋势及全球气温均衡规律的研究,揭示全球变暖对于全球繁荣的积极意义,以及全球变冷对于造成全球萧条及更加严重的人类文明终结的事实.而文章试图阐述全球变冷的消极意义对于全球的危害更加严重.     

全球变暖，天气变冷

就在哥本哈根全球气候大会关注全球气候变暖这个话题不久之后,全球变暖的话题就遭遇到了全球变冷的研究挑战。你感觉到刻骨的寒风了吗？     

青藏高原：全球气候变化的驱动机与放大器──Ⅰ 新生代气候变化的基本特征

除周期性气候波动外，新生代气候变化的基本特征是阶梯状气候变冷、波动幅度的不断增加和气候波动周期的转变。深海氧同位素记录表明新生代曾发生至少三次快速变冷事件，它们分别发生在３６，１５和２．４ＭａＢＰ前后。根据来自北大西洋的深海氧同位素记录，第四纪气候变化的趋势是波动幅度增加、频率降低。Ｂ／Ｍ界限附近，气候波动周期由４１ｋａ转变为１００ｋａ。黄土高原上黄土地层与磁化率研究揭示，现代东亚季风出现于２．４Ｍａ前，并于１．１和０．６ＭａＢＰ前后两度加强，现在的季风环流形势形成于０．６ＭａＢＰ，米兰柯维奇理论不能解释上述新生代气候的阶梯状变冷、第四纪气候的阶段性和东亚季风的形成及加强，因此除轨道因素外，还有别的因素控制气候变化。     

全球变暖会导致气候严寒吗

文章对美国国防部“秘密报告”中全球变暖可能导致严寒的理论根据和现实可能性作了分析，指出由于气候变暖、极冰融化影响大洋的环流，进而影响全球气候；这样的事件在历史上曾有多次发生。但目前还不能说已经开始发生这样的过程。而且没有这样的先兆。因此，到2020年，发生“秘密报告”中所提出来的情景的可能性很小，但是不排除在更长时间发生某种气候受变的可能性，所以加强对气候突变的研究是非常必要的。     

气候模式 数据聚焦分析

气候模式指依据已知的气候资料,如大气运动、表面洋流、温盐环流、大气化学、植被及土壤的变化、以及大气-陆地-海洋交互作用等设计出来的数理模式。气候模式可用于气候的模拟、预测或预报,是研究气候变化最有效的工具之一。目前所用的气候模式,尽管已经非常复杂,但仍无法包含所有可能影响气候的机制。一般而言,空间尺度越大,气候模式模拟气候现象的能力越高,     

2200—2000BC的气候突变与古文明的衰落

综合分析了历史学、考古学及古气候学的证据.证明2200-2000 BC在尼罗河流域、两河流域、印度河流域及黄河流域均发生了向干旱转变的气候突变.这次突变以中纬度普遍的变冷为背景,是全新世进入大暖期以来的一次强冷事件.尼罗河文明的衰落发生于第一中间期(2181-2040 BC),两河流域文明的衰落从阿卡德王国解体开始,到古巴比伦王国建立为止,约2200-1900 BC.印度河文明于1800 BC突然衰落.2000 BC前后中华文明在中原以外有广泛的交替,而中原龙山文化演变为二里头文化.2070 BC建立了夏朝,揭开了中华文明的纪元.研究表明,热盐环流(THC)的变化可能是气候突变的直接原因.     

最近150年气温升高的新认识

气象观测数据和地质记录数据显示最近150年气温呈升高趋势.研究了不同时间尺度气候变化与太阳辐射量变化之间的关系.结果表明:太阳辐射量变化是控制地球上气候变化的重要因素.根据地球轨道参数估算出来太阳辐射量变化,现今及未来约1万年太阳辐射量具有逐渐减少趋势,意味着气候逐渐变冷.最近150年气温升高包括人为因素和自然因素,IPCC(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)夸大了人类活动导致全球变暖的结果.在万年时间尺度上,最近150年气温升高可以看作是逐渐变冷大背景下的次级波动,气候变暖是短暂的过程.     

全球变暖机理探索

本文讨论了1900年至今的全球气候变化与巨行星会聚周期对应的科学事实,认为地球的能量并非只从太阳获取,地球具有电能的再生机制。地球是个带负电的准带电星球,地球是个大电容。地核能量通过断裂带向海洋传输过程中,其传输速度与太阳及行星运行周期有关。近期的地球气候变暖与巨行星运行到星下点对应地球赤道断裂带有关。因天体运行的规律是有章可循的,故能预测到气候变暖是暂时的现象。本世纪20年代开始全球气候将有变冷趋势,60年代全球气候又将变暖,重复新一轮的全球变暖周期。     

未来极端降水预估研究进展

全球气候变暖各地极端气候事件频发,自然环境和人类生产生活受到重大影响,极端气候事件的变化发展及未来预估工作亟需开展,尤其是极端降水的变化与生活生产更是密切相关.该文在全球变暖大背景下基于未来各种排放情景,对极端降水的定义、预报方法以及演变趋势的研究成果进行归纳总结,以为后续研究提供参考.     

宇宙尘埃流入量与地球气候冷暖关系分析

宇宙尘埃流入量的多少具１０万年的周期变化。宇宙尘埃流入量增加，地球气候变暖，出现间冰期环境；当宇宙尘埃流入量减少，地球气候变冷，出现冰期环境，这是由于宇宙法埃对短波辐射和长波辐射的热效应不同所致。     

Abrupt climate change and collapse of ancient civilizations at 2200BC-2000BC

Plentiful evidence of historical, archaeological and palaeoclimatic studies proved that an abrupt change from wetter to drier climate occurred over the Nile Valley, the Mesopotamia, the Indus Valley and Huanghe River Valley at 2200BC-2000BC. The abrupt change was developed based on the general lowering of temperature in the middle latitudes, and was a strong cold event since the beginning of the Megathermal (8.5-3.0 kaBP). Collapse of Nile civilization appeared at the First Intermediate Period (2181BC-2040BC). Civilization of Mesopotamia began collapse following the disintegration of Akkadian Empire. This process lasted to the foundation of Babylon Kingdom from 2200BC to 1900BC. Indus civilization abruptly fell off at 1800BC. A widespread alternation of archaeological cultures happened in China at ca. 2000BC except only in its central part. Longsheng culture was replaced by the Erlitou culture, which is now acknowledged in China as Xia Culture. Foundation of Xia Dynasty at 2070BC opened a new chapter in the development of Chinese civilization. Studies indicated that abrupt climate change may be caused by the weakening of the Thermohaline Circulation (THC).     

Holocene abrupt climate shifts recorded in Gun Nuur lake core, northern Mongolia

A continuous 7.44 m lake core was successfully drilled at Gun Nuur Lake, northern Mongolia, and analyses on environment magnetic parameters, organic matter content and organic δ^13C were conducted in an attempt to retrieve the Holocene chronosequence of climatic changes based on 6 AMS ^14C dates. We found that the Holocene climate in northern Mongolia has been alternating between cold (or cool)/wet conditions and warm/arid conditions, and also punctuated with a series of abrupt climate shifts. The abrupt climate shifts occurred around 1750, 2800, 4000, 5200, 7200, and 9200 aBP (^14C age), being chronologically correlative to those abrupt climatic events recorded in the high-latitude North Atlantic Ocean. The correlation indicates that the climatic changes in northern Mongolia were linked with those in the North Atlantic Ocean probably via the North Atlantic Oscillation-affected westerly winds. The strength and position of westerly winds might have modulated the Siberian-Mongolian high pressure system (winter monsoon), directly influencing the climate in China.     

Abrupt changes in the Asian southwest monsoon during the Holocene and their links to the North Atlantic Ocean

During the last ice age, the Indian Ocean southwest monsoon exhibited abrupt changes that were closely correlated with millennial-scale climate events in the North Atlantic region, suggesting a mechanistic link. In the Holocene epoch, which had a more stable climate, the amplitude of abrupt changes in North Atlantic climate was much smaller, and it has been unclear whether these changes are related to monsoon variability. Here we present a continuous record of centennial-scale monsoon variability throughout the Holocene from rapidly accumulating and minimally bioturbated sediments in the anoxic Arabian Sea. Our monsoon proxy record reveals several intervals of weak summer monsoon that coincide with cold periods documented in the North Atlantic region--including the most recent climate changes from the Medieval Warm Period to the Little Ice Age and then to the present. We therefore suggest that the link between North Atlantic climate and the Asian monsoon is a persistent aspect of global climate.     

天山北麓一例黑风暴天气的成因

利用常规观测资料、地面气象自记记录和静止气象卫星云图资料对1998-04-18由南支冷锋爆发性发展生成的干飑线触发的天山北麓黑风暴天气过程进行了分析。结果表明：强沙尘暴和黑风暴过境时风、压、温、湿在短时间内出现突变,跃变幅度黑风暴远大于强沙尘暴,黑风暴嵌于强沙尘暴时变化幅度比强沙尘暴弱。沙尘壁具有等温性,水平厚度4～9km。影响黑风暴的天气因素中,地面大风形成主要源于冷锋的加强和锋后强冷平流,高空急流的加强及其形成的次级环流使高空动量有效下传到地面则是另一个重要原因。混合层是有利于黑风暴在干旱环境形成的大气层结特征,这次过程深厚混合层的形成是深厚干对流和黑风暴产生的主要原因,而它的形成则是长时间地面加热的结果。     

采用分支理论对急冷过程中多定态现象的研究

通过一个简单模型模拟了合金Pd82Si18的急冷过程,分析实验上难以测定的热传输指数对凝固过程中相关参数的影响.结果显示,当冷模温度足够慢地从900K下降到300K时,对应2.0×105～5.0×105W/(m2K)范围内的热传输指数,多定态现象发生.当多定态发生,冷模温度达到一个临界值时,固液界面上会产生剧烈的温度下降.随着该温度的突然下降,在液固界面上很可能会发生玻璃转变.     

High-resolution climate evolution derived from the sediment records of Erlongwan Maar Lake since 14 ka BP

Varve counts with AMS 14 C,137 Cs and 210 Pb dating of sediments(0-900 cm) from Erlongwan Maar Lake,NE China were used to establish a high-resolution chronology series for the late Quaternary.Dry density,total organic carbon(TOC) content,total nitrogen(TN) content,TOC/TN ratios and stable organic carbon isotope(13 C org) ratios were continuously analyzed on this sediment profile.On the basis of lithological characters,sporo-pollen assemblages and geochemical analyses,we identified 6 climate stages within the last 14 ka BP.The time before the Holocene(14-11.4 ka BP) represents a higher-order oscillation climatic transitional period(I).The entire Holocene climate development(from 11.4 ka BP to present) exhibited an increasing temperature trend,although there were cold and warm alternations(II-VI).The periods included were:II(11.4-9.05 ka BP) warm-wet stage,III(9.05-7.4 ka BP) cold and warm fluctuation stage,IV(7.4-4.2 ka BP) smoothly warming climate stage,V(4.2-1.67 ka BP) climate optimum stage,and VI(from 1.67 ka BP to present) cool and drier stage.Each climate stage began with a warming event and ended with an abrupt cooling event.This climate change cycle had unequal time spaces that were progressively shorter over time.Several abrupt climate shifts occurred at about 9.4-9.05,8.5-8.2,7.8-7.4,4.6-4.2,3.7-3.25,2-1.67 and 0.3-0.03 ka BP.Thus,it can be seen that the climate has been warming since 1920 AD,which indicates a new climate stage.     

Collapse and rapid resumption of Atlantic meridional circulation linked to deglacial climate changes

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is widely believed to affect climate. Changes in ocean circulation have been inferred from records of the deep water chemical composition derived from sedimentary nutrient proxies, but their impact on climate is difficult to assess because such reconstructions provide insufficient constraints on the rate of overturning. Here we report measurements of 231Pa/230Th, a kinematic proxy for the meridional overturning circulation, in a sediment core from the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean. We find that the meridional overturning was nearly, or completely, eliminated during the coldest deglacial interval in the North Atlantic region, beginning with the catastrophic iceberg discharge Heinrich event H1, 17,500 yr ago, and declined sharply but briefly into the Younger Dryas cold event, about 12,700 yr ago. Following these cold events, the 231Pa/230Th record indicates that rapid accelerations of the meridional overturning circulation were concurrent with the two strongest regional warming events during deglaciation. These results confirm the significance of variations in the rate of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation for abrupt climate changes.     

1970～2012年青海湖流域冷暖季气温变化特征及突变分析

本文以线性倾向估计、累积距平、小波分析、Mann-Kendall检验及滑动t检验等方法对青海湖流域1970~2012冷、暖季及年均气温变化趋势、周期性和突变性进行分析.结果表明:(1)青海湖流域冷、暖季气温及年平均气温均呈显著增长趋势,其中,冷季增长幅度最大(0.45℃/10a),暖季增长最平缓(0.22℃/10a);从各站点的年、季气温变化来看,恰不恰地区增温幅度最大,刚察增幅最小.(2)冷、暖季气温及年均温的累积距平值绝大多数为负值,变化趋势相对一致,以1997年为转折点,1997年之前气候偏冷,之后趋于变暖.其中,年均气温变化幅度最小,冷季变化幅度最大.(3)冷、暖季和全年均存在较为复杂的周期性变化,其中,年平均气温在整个时间序列上存在4a和15a的周期,以15a最为显著;冷、暖季平均气温在短时间尺度上周期性不显著,主要为17a和27a的长时间尺度周期,以17a的变化周期最显著.(4)青海湖流域冷、暖季气温和年平均气温经检验均发生了突变,其中,年平均气温发生于90年代前期,冷、暖季均发生于90年代中期,且均于90年代末进入显著增温阶段.     

Abrupt climate change：Debate or action

Global abrupt climate changes have been documented by various climate records, including ice cores, ocean sediment cores, lake sediment cores, cave deposits, loess deposits and pollen records. The climate system prefers to be in one of two stable states, i.e. interstadial or stadial conditions, but not in between. The transition between two states has an abrupt character. Abrupt climate changes are, in general, synchronous in the northern hemisphere and tropical regions. The timescale for abrupt climate changes can be as short as a decade. As the impacts may be potentially serious, we need to take actions such as reducing CO2 emissions to the atmosphere.     

冻融过程中重塑土水盐迁移试验研究

为探究盐渍土地基冻融过程中的水盐迁移规律,以内蒙古东部典型盐渍土为研究对象,通过改变土样冷端温度,初始含水率,干密度和含盐量等因素,进行室内重塑土单向冻结,双向融化试验。结果表明：试样温度的改变存在滞后性,离冷端越近,温度变化越敏感;在冻结过程中,土样初始含水率、干密度或者含盐量的增大,将造成冻结锋面的移动速度减小。试件水分迁移量随着初始含水率的增大而增大;当初始含水率较低时,冷端温度的变化对水分迁移影响较小,只有当初始含水率足够大时,迁移量才随着冷端温度的降低而增大;土溶液冻结和电导率突变存在关联性;含盐量的增加,会抑制水分迁移。试件整体盐分迁移量随着冷端温度的降低而增大;只有当冷端温度足够低时,盐分迁移量才会随着初始含水率的增大而增大;增大干密度会减少盐分迁移;含盐量的增多,使盐分往试件暖端方向汇聚。