华北地区1972年和1997年干旱特征及其影响系统分析

利用华北地区实测的月降水量资料,美国NCAR/NCEP 850 hPa的矢量风5、00 hPa和850 hPa的位势高度等再分析资料,分析了华北地区1972年和1997年这2个干旱年干旱的空间分布、强度分布和持续时间,以及西太平洋副热带高压变化、季风进退和欧亚大气环流异常情况.结果表明:1972年是季风正常年,但该年亚洲大陆高压偏强且持续存在、西太平洋副热带高压持续偏弱,导致了干旱的发生与持续;而1997年由于持续偏强的亚洲大陆高压、持续偏弱的季风和西太平洋副热带高压造成该地区严重干旱.     

冬春海温异常对东亚初夏季风环流的影响

用ＯＳＵ的两层大气环流模式进行了热带西太平洋冬春海温异常对东亚初夏（５月）季风环流影响的数值试验．结果表明：①海温的负距平引起西太平洋副热带高压脊南落和西伸，东亚热带季风环流减弱，我国西南和华南地区的降水增加；②海温的正距平引起西太平洋副热带高压明显减弱，西太平洋的赤道西风加强，我国西南和华南地区的降水减少     

前季风环流变化特征及与西南地区降水的关系

利用NCEP/NCAR1948-2010年再分析资料,采用小波分析,M-K突变检验及相关性检验等方法,研究了青藏高原南侧10°-30°N低层前季风环流的气候、结构特点、突变及周期等特征,以及与西南地区降水的关系.结果表明:该环流4月最强,且为低纬地区冬季Hadley环流型和夏季季风环流型间的一种过渡.该环流第一主周期为23a,同时还存在4,7,13a的主周期.20世纪80年代该环流的减弱是一突变现象,具体是从1982年开始的.前季风环流强度与西南地区大部4月平均降水量呈正相关,且四川东部、重庆西部、贵州中部通过了99%的信度检验.     

南亚高压和云南雨季降水关系的初步探讨

南亚高压是夏季南亚上空对流层上部的一个强大而稳定的行星尺度环流系统。它的季节性变化规律、东西振荡机理,它的周期性、整体性、持续性、超前性以及与众多的天气尺度和大、中尺度的天气系统的相互联系,为南亚地区某些重要的天气过程的发生、发展和消亡提供了一个环流背景,与我国降水过程存在着显著相关。笔者运用1980～1982年的资料对南亚高压的强度、云南雨季降水和季风环流圈作动率谱和交叉谱分析,对不同系统和不同年份的情况进行了讨论,结果表明:南亚变压通过季风环流圈对云南降水产生影响,云南降水受东亚季风环流系统和印度环流系统、热带和副热带天气系统的综合影响,具有较显著的准一周和准双周的中期振荡周期。     

2009/2010年初夏拉萨干旱成因及影响分析

文章从2009/2010年初夏（5/6月）环流指数特征、月平均环流场特征、500hpa环流场以及气象要素变化特征等方面分析了初夏干旱的基本成因。结果表明,造成初夏干旱的主要原因有：青藏高原属高压控制型,即西太平洋热带高压强度偏强,其位置明显偏西,控制高原,高原上盛行偏西气流或偏北气流;高压控制的印度西北部抑制了水汽输送;伊朗高压呈东北西南向,此时西太平洋副热带高压脊线在25毅N左右,位置偏南或强度偏弱。     

亚非夏季风年代际变化强度指数

根据海陆热力差异驱动季风的原理,利用夏季印度洋与欧亚大陆的地表面温度差定义了一个亚非夏季风年代际变化强度指数.该季风指数能很好地表征亚非夏季风强度的年代际变化,并且在年代际时间尺度上与亚非干旱半干旱过渡地区夏季降水量具有明显的反位相相关关系.亚非夏季风指数低位相时期,干旱半干旱地区从日本经我国华北、印度西北和北非Sahel地区是一条多雨带,亚洲大陆季风低压较强;亚非夏季风指数高位相时期,以上地区为少雨带,亚洲大陆季风低压较弱.弱夏季风时期与强夏季风时期相比,亚非季风区上空有辐合异常,不利于低空对流辐合上升.     

季风研究 数据聚焦分析

季风是由海陆分布、大气环流、大陆地形等因素造成的,以一年为周期的大范围风向对流现象。在季风气候条件下,夏季暖热潮湿多雨,冬季寒冷干燥少雨。夏季雨热同期,对发展农业十分有利。冬季气温低,气温年较差大,对减少病虫害起到一定作用。但在季风气候条件下,由于降水量的季节变化和年际变化大,水旱灾害频繁,造成衣业减产,对人们生产和生活极为不利。据统计,占世界总人1：760％的人类活动受季风影响,亚洲地区是世界上最著名的季风区。因此,提高对季风的认识及预测水平,减少灾害天气带来的损失,对促进人类社会发展和进步有重要意义。     

青藏高原：全球气候变化的驱动机与放大器──Ⅲ．青藏高原隆起对气候变化的影响

新生代出现的几次重大气候变化事件与青藏高原形成过程中经历的几次强烈构造运动在发生年代上的良好对应关系表明两者存在紧密的联系．或许正是青藏高原的隆起导致了气候的巨大变化和现代东亚季风的形成及加强．高大的高原对大气系统有两个重要影响，热力作用和动力作用．它们在亚洲冬季形成蒙古高压、夏季形成印度低压，从而导致东亚季风出现．青藏高原越高，其对大气的作用越显著，形成的蒙古高压、印度低压和东亚季风越强大．因此，东亚季风的形成和加强是青藏高原隆起的结果．东亚季风的加强和高原动力作用使西风带波动增加，造成冰期极地冷空气不断南侵、气候波动变大．青藏高原抬升和季风造成的化学风化增强还使大气ＣＯ２含量降低、气候变冷．因此，青藏高原隆起是控制新生代气候变化的重要因素．     

西北地区暴雨时空变化及异常年夏季环流特征

利用中国西北地区248个观测站1981-2010年逐日降水量资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,对西北地区暴雨的时空变化及环流异常特征进行了分析.结果表明:暴雨主要出现在陕西、甘肃东南部、宁夏东南部,暴雨出现次数依次由东南向西北减少.暴雨的年际差异较大,年内主要集中在7-8月,两个月的暴雨日数占全年的64%,7月最多,8月次之,区域性暴雨7月下旬最多.西北地区大范围暴雨过程偏多年份夏季(7月和8月),西太平洋副热带高压偏强,西脊点伸到110?E附近,亚洲中高纬度多低值系统活动,低层(700 hPa)来自南海的偏东气流与青藏高原南侧的偏西气流合并为偏南气流向北伸展到西北地区东部,将充沛的水汽输送到这一区域,到达35?N附近与西北气流相遇;反之,西北地区大范围暴雨过程偏少年份夏季(7月和8月),西太平洋副热带高压偏弱,远离大陆,亚洲高纬度多高值系统活动,低层是一支偏北气流控制西北地区东部.     

北部湾环流研究述评

针对北部湾环流的季节变化和琼州海峡水体输送的传统观念,根据近20多年的海流、底质、浮游生物的实地调查资料,对众多的研究结果进行对比和评述。认为:从平均态来说,琼州海峡水体输送全年都是从东向西,冬季多于夏季;冬季北部湾环流是气旋式,夏季,北部湾北部环流是气旋式,南部是反气旋式,其中分界线大致在19°30′N处。北部湾存在多处上升流区域,不计越南沿岸,仅靠近我国大陆,就有广西沿海铁山港和北海的上升流区;海南省西部,从八所—莺歌海的上升流区;海南省南部上升流区。虽然,北部湾环流研究已取得长足进步,但是,还存在许多不足之处,如潮汐余流的研究:未能在充分考虑水体边界、实际风场、真实地形、潮汐余流、密度流等诸多要素情况下,计算出北部湾真实环流。     

青藏高原冬季积雪异常对东、南亚夏季风影响的初步数值模拟研究

利用一个耦合了简化的简单生物圈模式的大气环流谱模式（ＳＳｉＢ－ＧＣＭ），初步探讨了青藏高原冬季积雪异常对东、南亚夏季风环流和降水的影响及其机理。结果表明，高原地区冬季积雪增加将使随后的夏季东、南亚季风明显减弱，主要表现为东、南亚季风区降水减少，索马里急流、印度季风槽和印度西南气流减弱。另外，还提出欧亚大陆雪盖与整个高原雪盖和高原东部雪盖对东、南亚夏季风影响的敏感性问题。与欧亚大陆雪盖相比，高原雪盖是影响东、南亚季风的更敏感区，冬季高原以外雪盖增加，有可能使亚洲季风增强；当高原东部雪盖增加时，高原以东地区及印支半岛降水减少，印度东部、南部和孟加拉湾西北部降水反而增加     

Modeling the climate effects of different subregional uplifts within the Himalaya-Tibetan Plateau on Asian summer monsoon evolution

Considering the different uplifting time of different subregions of the Himalaya-Tibetan Plateau(TP),a series of numerical simulations have been conducted with the Community Atmosphere Model(CAM4) developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research to explore the effects of the phased tectonic uplift of the Himalaya-TP on the evolution of Asian summer monsoons.The results show that the uplifts of the Himalaya and northern TP significantly affect the evolutions of South Asian summer monsoon and northern East Asian summer monsoon respectively.That is,the tectonic uplift of the Himalaya intensifies the South Asian summer monsoon circulation and increases the precipitation in South Asia,whereas the uplift of the northern TP intensifies the northern East Asian summer monsoon circulation and increases the precipitation in northern East Asia.Compared with previous simulations,current comparative analyses of modeling results for different subregional uplifts within the Himalaya-TP help deepen our understanding of the evolutionary history of Asian monsoons.     

南亚季风环流与臭氧时空分布变化关系的特征分析

利用2005年1月至2017年12月搭载在美国环境监测Aura卫星上的臭氧监测仪（Ozone Monitoring Instrument, OMI）数据和NCEP气象资料,在夏季风环流指数定义方法的基础上,重新定义了南亚区域冬季风环流指数,并分别计算了南亚夏季风和冬季风环流指数. 结合冬夏两季环流的强弱变化采用相关分析、合成分析和奇异值分解（Singular Value Decomposition, SVD）等方法,探讨了环流异常形势下臭氧的时空变化特征. 结果表明:①南亚夏季纬向环流与经向环流的强度变化存在一致性,冬季经向环流与纬向环流的强度变化差异较大. ②南亚臭氧柱总量的季节变化明显,且近13年来臭氧柱总量整体呈上升趋势. ③夏季（冬季）风环流指数与对流层中低（中高）层和平流层中低层臭氧的相关性显著,但夏季平流层和对流层的相关趋势相反. ④夏季风环流增强对应青藏高原?伊朗高原上空及南侧区域的上升运动增强,对臭氧的输送作用是造成对流层臭氧分布呈现差异的原因. ⑤冬季风环流强弱期的垂直上升和下沉运动中心的移动,以及南北向、东西向气流交汇区的差异是造成臭氧分布不同的原因.     

A very strong summer monsoon event during 30-40 kaBP in the Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) Plateau and its relation to precessional cycle

Guliya ice core records, high lake-level records in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and at its north side as well as vegetation succession records indicated that during the period of 30-40 kaBP, namely the later age of the megainterstadial of last glacial period, or the marine oxygen isotope stage 3, the climate of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau was exceptionally warm and humid, the temperature was 2-4℃ higher than today and the precipitation was 40% to over 100% higher than the current average, all these suggested the existence of an exceedingly strong summer monsoon event. It has been inferred that the occurrence of such an event was attributed, on the one hand, to the stronger summer low pressure over the Plateau, which strengthened the attraction to the summer monsoon; on the other hand, to the vigorous evaporation of the tropic ocean surface, which promoted the moisture-rich southwest monsoon to flow over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. The background responsible for the formation of the very strong summer monsoon was that the period of 30-40 kaBP was just in the strong insolation stage of the 20ka precessional cycle, when the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau received extraordinary strong solar radiation and thus enlarged the thermodynamical contrast between the Plateau and the mid-south part of the Indian Ocean.     

Lag influences of winter circulation conditions in the tropical western Pacific on South Asian summer monsoon

<正>By means of monthly mean NCEP/NCAR data analyses, this note investigates the lag influences of winter circulation conditions in the tropical western Pacific on South Asian summer monsoon through the methods of composite, correlation and statistical confident test. The results indicate clearly that winter climate variations in the equatorial western Pacific would produce significant influences on the following South Asian summer monsoon, and with the lapse of time the lag influences show clearly moving northward and extending westward features. When winter positive (negative) sea level pressure anomalies occupy the equatorial western Pacific, there is an anticyclonic (cyclonic) circulation anomaly appearing in the northwestern Pacific. With the lapse of time, the anticyclonic (cyclonic) circulation anomaly gradually moves to northeast, and its axis in the west-east directions also stretches, therefore, easterly (westerly) anomalies in the south part of the anticyclonic (cyclonic) circulation anomaly continuously expand westward to the peninsula of India. Undoubtedly, the South Asian summer monsoon is weak (strong).     

A very strong summer monsoon event during 30–40 kaBP in the Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) Plateau and its relation to precessional cycle

Guliya ice core records, high lake-level records in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and at its north side as well as vegetation succession records indicated that during the period of 30–40 kaBP, namely the later age of the megainterstadial of last glacial period, or the marine oxygen isotope stage 3, the climate of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau was exceptionally warm and humid, the temperature was 2–4°C higher than today and the precipitation was 40% to over 100% higher than the current average, all these suggested the existence of an exceedingly strong summer monsoon event. It has been inferred that the occurrence of such an event was attributed, on the one hand, to the stronger summer low pressure over the Plateau, which strengthened the attraction to the summer monsoon; on the other hand, to the vigorous evaporation of the tropic ocean surface, which promoted the moisture-rich southwest monsoon to flow over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau. The background responsible for the formation of the very strong summer monsoon was that the period of 30–40 kaBP was just in the strong insolation stage of the 20ka precessional cycle, when the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau received extraordinary strong solar radiation and thus enlarged the thermodynamical contrast between the Plateau and the midsouth part of the Indian Ocean.     

"昆仑-黄河运动"与我国自然地理格局的形成

"昆仑-黄河运动"是发生在早、中更新世之交的一次强烈的构造运动.这次构造运动不仅影响到了整个青藏高原,把高原面抬升至3000～3500 m,局部地区的山地上升到4500～5000 m的高度,导致青藏高原进入冰冻圈,而且影响大气环流型式,形成了东亚季风的现代格局.冬季风加强和夏委风减弱使得我国北方干旱化加剧,沙漠面积扩大,湖泊消退,亚热带植物从秦岭以北南撤到南方,而且使得黄土堆积范围得到扩展,黄土堆积速度加快.这次构造运动后基本形成了我国自然地理的现代格局.     

Responses of South and East Asian summer monsoons to different land-sea temperature increases under a warming scenario

We used outputs from climate models that participated in the fourth assessment (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to evaluate the responses of the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) and the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) circulations to different warming over land and ocean under a medium warming scenario, SRES A1B. Our results suggest that, even though near-surface warming over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is greater than that over the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) and the northwestern Pacific (NWP), the upper-tropospheric land-sea thermal contrasts between the TP and the TIO (TP-TIO) and between the TP and the NWP (TP-NWP) will decrease. At interdecadal and longer time scales, the change in the SASM circulation is consistent with the TP-TIO upper-troposphere thermal contrast. Conversely, the change in the EASM circulation is consistent with the TP-NWP lower-troposphere thermal contrast. However, at the interannual time scale, both changes in the EASM and SASM are significantly correlated with the upper-troposphere thermal contrast. Further analyses suggest that increases in moisture and changes in cloud cover induced by global warming may cause amplified upper-tropospheric warming over the TP and the oceans resulting in inconsistent changes in the vertical temperature distribution over these regions. Because the warming over the TIO and NWP is greater than that over the TP, the TP-TIO meridional and TP-NWP zonal thermal contrasts will both decrease. However, at the lower layer, the difference in thermal capacity between land and sea result in a larger thermal effect in the near-surface region of the TP than those over the surrounding oceans. We showed that a range of factors that affect thermal conditions will likely cause changes in the Asian monsoon across a range of time scales under a warming scenario. These changes reflect differences in the influence of the greenhouse effect and natural variability.     

华北夏季降水年代际变化与东亚夏季风、大气环流异常

利用华北夏季降水资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,对华北夏季降水、东亚夏季风年代际变化特征及大气环流异常进行研究,发现一些有意义的结果:华北夏季降水变化存在明显的8a、18a周期,东亚夏季风变化18a、28a周期性比较明显,二者年代际变化特征明显,但华北夏季降水变化和东亚夏季风变化的周期不完全一致.华北夏季降水量变化在60年代中期发生了突变,东亚夏季风变化在70年代中期发生了突变.华北夏季降水与东亚夏季风变化存在很好的相关关系,强夏季风年,华北夏季降水一般偏多,弱夏季风年,华北夏季降水一般偏少,但又不完全一致.东亚夏季风减弱是造成华北夏季降水减少的一个重要因素,但不是唯一因素,华北夏季降水减少还与环流异常密切相关.在地面上,青臧高原地区、华北地区气温下降造成华北低压系统活动减少,不利于降水.在850 hPa层上,东亚中纬度的西南季风和副热带高压南部的偏东风、西北部的西南风异常减弱,使得西南气流输送水汽很多难以到达30°N以北的地区,而副热带高压西部外围偏东南、偏南气流输送到华北地区的水汽也大量减少,水汽不足造成华北夏季降水偏少.在500 hPa高度场上,80年代欧亚遥相关型表现与50年代相反,变为欧洲( )、乌拉尔山(-)、中亚( )形势,这种环流使得乌拉尔山高压脊减弱,贝加尔湖至青藏高原高空槽变浅,纬向环流表现突出,不利于冷暖空气南北交换.同时在500 hPa气温场上,80年代,西伯利亚至青藏高原西北部的冷槽明显东移南压到蒙古至华北地区,锋区位于华北以东以南位置,使得华北地区冷暖空气交汇减少,降水也因此减少.华北夏季降水减少是由于东亚夏季风减弱和大气环流异常造成的.     

Sr-Nd isotope geochemistry of eolian dust of the arid-semiarid areas in China： Implications for loess provenance and monsoon evolution

Strontium (Sr) is a divalent alkaline earth element. Its ionic radius (0.113 nm) is slightly larger than that of calcium (0.099 nm), and Sr thus substitutes isomor- phously for Ca in many minerals. Neodymium (Nd) is a rare earth element. Its chemical prop…