Glacier changes during the last forty years in the Tarim Interior River basin, northwest China

By comparing digitized glacier outlines from the Chinese Glacier Inventory (CGI) during the 1960s–1970s and Landsat Enhance Thematic Mapper (ETM+) images from 1999 to 2001, we investigated changes for about 7665 alpine glaciers among 11665 glaciers in seven sub-basins of the Tarim Interior River basin (TIRB). The results showed that the total glacier area was reduced by 3.3% from the 1960s/ 1970s to 1999/2001 and area losses for 1–5 km2 glaciers accounted for 48.3% of the total glacier area loss in the TIRB. However, the glacier area reductions varied from 0.7% to 7.9% among the seven sub-basins of the TIRB during the study period. The glacier area changing with altitude showed that the maximum contribution of area shrinkage occurred at 4900–5400 m. Data from 25 meteorological stations in the TIRB showed increases in both the annual mean air temperature and annual precipitation during 1960–2000. This indicates that the glacier shrinkage in the TIRB over the last 40 years was largely due to regional climate warming that enhanced glacier ablation and overcame the effects of increased precipitation on the glacier mass balance.     

Quick ice mass loss and abrupt retreat of the maritime glaciers in the Kangri Karpo Mountains,southeast Tibetan Plateau

The maritime glaciers are sensitive to climate change because of high annual precipitation and high air temperature in the region. A combined comprehensive study was carried out based on glacier mass balance observation, GPS-based glacier terminus position survey, glacier Ground Penetrating Radar, topography maps and RS satellite images in the Kangri Karpo Mountains, Southeast Tibet. The study revealed a strong ice mass loss and quick glacier retreat since the 1970s. Ata Glacier, one glacier from the south slope of the Kangri Karpo Mountains, has formed a 6-km-long terminal moraine zone at the end of the glacier since the 1970s, and the accelerating retreat is largely due to the strong glacier surface melting. Mass balance study on the other four glaciers on the northern side of the Kangri Karpo Mountains shows that they are in large negative mass balance and the glaciers had retreated 15--19 m from May 2006 to May 2007. The in-situ glacier observation also shows that the glacier retreat is more obvious in small glaciers. The enhanced ice mass deficit caused by climate warming and the ongoing extinction of many small glaciers in this region could seriously affect the water resources, environ- ments, local climate and regional sustainable development in the near future.     

基于RAMMS的冰湖溃决型泥石流演进模拟及危害性

冰湖溃决型泥石流作为目前西藏境内最主要的地质灾害之一，对下游工程的建设与运营造成潜在威胁。本文以西藏洛隆县冻错曲冰湖为例，基于现场调查、遥感解译、特征值计算和数值模拟方法，对冻错曲冰湖泥石流孕灾条件、动力学特征及溃决演进过程进行研究，分析其对下游工程建设的影响。采用无量纲堵塞指数（DBI）方法对冻错曲冰湖堰塞体稳定性进行评价，结果表明该堰塞体位于非稳定区与稳定区之间，存在发生溃决的风险。基于三维动态模拟软件RAMMS的Voellmy-Salm单相流模型，模拟分析了冻错曲冰湖泥石流在2种溃决模式下的演进过程。模拟结果显示：冻错曲冰湖泥石流溃决演进过程可归纳为初始溃决、加速运动、减速运动、沟口停淤4个阶段；2种溃决模式下冰湖溃决影响范围都经过拟建工程位置，潜在威胁区泥石流平均深度分别为4.87 m、8.26 m；在瞬时全部溃决场景下，冰湖溃决泥石流在拟建工程处最大流速为5.74 m/s，最大流量为2 843.38 m3/s。研究成果有助于评价冰湖溃决型泥石流的危害性，并为工程防治设计提供参考。     

阿尼玛卿山多次冰川滑塌链式灾害过程梳理与展望

冰川滑塌是近年来涌现的一种新形式冰川灾害．21世纪以来，青藏高原地区发生10多起冰川滑塌事件，其中高原东北部阿尼玛卿山晓玛沟冰川分别在2004、2007、2016和2019年连续发生4次．利用多序列遥感影像和现有资料的整合统计对近35年来晓玛沟冰川形态、流速特征等进行分析，厘清了4次冰川滑塌事件发生的诱因以及潜在的隐患点．结果表明，4次冰川滑塌发生前期的冰川跃动或末端前进、冰川后缘冰-岩崩、异常高温降水、易于滑动产生的基岩性质等与冰川滑塌事件的发生密切相关．观察到冰川后缘陡坡区在2000—2011年间发生4次规模较大的冰-岩崩，为多次冰川滑塌的发生提供了物质和动力基础．未来几年内再次发生冰川滑塌的可能性极大．2019年冰川滑塌发生后，晓玛沟冰川再次向前滑动；近年来，冰川后缘新发育的不稳定斜坡冰裂隙发育明显增多；斜坡冰流速的变化与下部冰川稳定性之间存在内在联系，在冰川滑塌发生的相关年份斜坡冰流速明显较快．根据对阿尼玛卿山4次冰川滑塌诱因的分析以及新隐患点的判定，提出结合遥感影像和临近气象站点资料的便易手段，加强对晓玛沟内冰川形态和运动特征等的监测，以及时关注和预测未来灾害的发生．      

Late Pleistocene glaciation of the Changbai Mountains in northeastern China

The Changbai Mountains （2749 m a.s.l.） in northeastern China are one of the typical mountain regions with glaciation since late Pleistocene as evidenced by well-preserved erosive and accumulative landforms at elevations above 2000 m a.s.l, formed by glaciers around the crater lake, Tianchi Lake. Cirque glaciers developed on both the inner and outer sides of the volcanic cone. Well-preserved cirques, glacial trough valleys, glacial threholds, polished surfaces of the glacial erratics and the moraine ridges indicate that several glaciation processes took place during the last glacial period in this region. Resuits of optically stimulated luminescence （OSL） dating on the moraine sediments, and the K/Ar, thermal ionization mass spectrometry （TIMS）, electronic spinning resonance （ESR） dating on the volcanic rocks suggest two periods of glacier advances. One is named the Black Wind Mouth glacier advance taking place on the west and north slopes of the volcanic cone at an elevation of 2000-2100 m a.s.l., which is dated to about 20 ka, being the result of the Last Glacial Maximum （LGM）. The other is named the Meteorological Station glacier advance at the elevation of 2400-2600 m a.s.l., dated to 11 ka during the late glacial period, and is tentatively correlated to the Younger Dryas stage. The scope of the former glacier advance is larger than that of the latter. Regional comparisons showed that the glacial sequences in the Changbai Mountains are similar to other glaciated areas in eastern Asia during the later part of the last glacial cycle.     

Glacier variations and climate warming and drying in the central Himalayas

Repeat measurements of glacier terminus positions show that glaciers in the central Himalayas have been in a continuous retreat situation in the past decades. The average retreat rate is 5.5-8.7 m/a in Mt. Qomolangma(Everest) since the 1960s and 6.4 m/a in Mt. Xixiabangma since the 1980s. In recent years, the retreat rate is increasing.Ice core studies revealed that the accumulation rate of glaciers has a fluctuating decrease trend in the last century with a rapid decrease in the 1960s and a relatively steady low value afterwards. Meteorological station record indicates that the annual mean temperature has a slow increase trend but summer temperature had a larger increase in the past 30 a. All these suggest that the glacier retreat results from precipitation decrease in combination with temperature increase,and hence glacier shrinkage in this region will speed up if the climatic warming and drying continues.     

海螺沟冰川成因浅析

贡嘎山地区发育有71条冰川,其中长5公里以上的有五条,海螺沟冰川是其规模最大海拔最低的一条。根据冰川的分布、形状和规模,它属山岳冰川类型,从成因上看,则属暧型动力变质冰川。 海螺沟冰川形成于16万年前,地处青藏高原东缘。冰川在纵向上,粒雪盆高置、冰舌低伸,其间,为特有高悬的大冰瀑布相联。冰川的形成与存在,主要与挽近时期的造山运动有关,并与有利的贡嘎山南北向构造山系地质背景、区域自然地理环境、南面的南北向横断山系及南部海域东南季风影响相联系。海螺沟冰川现处于强消融退缩时期,这与区域性气候以几十年期的振荡变化有关,与“温室效应”无关。冰川景观不会因目前的退缩而在可以预见的时期消失。     

Estimation on the response of glaciers in China to the global warming in the 21st century

Glaciers in China can be categorized into 3 types, i.e. the maritime (temperate) type, sub-continental (sub-polar) type and extreme Continental (polar) type, which take 22%, 46% and 32% of the total existing glacier area (59 406 km2) respectively. Researches indicate that glaciers of the three types show different response patterns to the global warming. Since the Maxima of the Little Ice Age (the 17th century), air temperature has risen at a magnitude of 1.3℃on average and the glacier area decreased corresponds to 20% of the present total glacier area in western China. it is estimated that air temperature rise in the 2030s, 2070s and 2100s will be of the order of 0.4-1.2, 1.2-2.7 and 2.1-4.0 K in western China. With these scenarios, glaciers in China will suffer from further shrinkage by 12%, 28% and 45% by the 2030s, 2070s and 2100s. The uncertainties may account for 30%-67% in 2100 in China.     

Variations in the equilibrium line altitude of Urumqi Glacier No.1, Tianshan Mountains, over the past 50 years

The glacier ELA is one of the important parameters reflecting climate change.Based on observations of the equilibrium line altitude(ELA) of Urumqi Glacier No.1 in the Tianshan Mountains,we established a statistical model between ELA and its major influencing factors,warm season air temperature(air temperature averages for May,June,July and August) and annual precipitation.Result showed that,warm season air temperature was the leading climatic factor influencing ELA variations.The glacier ELA ascends(descends) 61.7 m when warm season air temperature increases(decreases) by 1°C,and ascends(descends) 13.1 m when cold season precipitation decreases(increases) by 10%.In the period 1959-2008,the glacier ELA showed a general increasing trend,ascending108 m and reaching its highest altitude in 2008 at 4168 m a.s.l.,close to the glacier summit.If future climate is similar to that in the past 50 years,the ELA of Urumqi Glacier No.1 will still ascend with a speed of 2.16 m/a.However,If future climate is similar to that in the period 2000-2008,the ELA will still ascend with a speed of 6.5 m/a before it is stable.As a result of ELA variation,the accumulation area ratio(AAR) of the glacier showed a decreasing trend during the past 50 years.     

Fractures as the main pathways of water flow in temperate glaciers

Understanding the flow of water through the body of a glacier is important, because the spatial distribution of water and the rate of infiltration to the glacier bottom is one control on water storage and pressure, glacier sliding and surging, and the release of glacial outburst floods. According to the prevailing hypothesis, this water flow takes place in a network of tubular conduits. Here we analyse video images from 48 boreholes drilled into the small Swedish glacier Storglaci?ren, showing that the glacier's hydrological system is instead dominated by fractures that convey water at slow speeds. We detected hydraulically connected fractures at all depths, including near the glacier bottom. Our observations indicate that fractures provide the main pathways for surface water to reach deep within the glacier, whereas tubular conduits probably form only in special circumstances. A network of hydraulically linked fractures offers a simple explanation for the origin and evolution of the englacial water flow system and its seasonal regeneration. Such a fracture network also explains radar observations that reveal a complex pattern of echoes rather than a system of conduits. Our findings may be important in understanding the catastrophic collapse of ice shelves and rapid hydraulic connection between the surface and bed of an ice sheet.     

慕士塔格峰冰川变化遥感研究

以位于新疆维吾尔族自治区西南部的慕士塔格峰冰川为例,利用研究区1965年经航片校对的地形图和2001年5月的ASTER遥感影像为信息源,通过遥感图像处理技术和专家指导下的人工解译得到1965,2001年两期冰川边界图,用GIS统计该地区冰川面积,并分析冰川变化总趋势.结果表明,近36年来,慕士塔格峰冰川整体呈现退缩趋势,冰川面积减少了1.11%,而山峰西侧和南侧的部分冰川有前进的现象.     

Variations in equilibrium line altitude of the Qiyi Glacier,Qilian Mountains,over the past 50 years

Based on observations of the equilibrium line altitude (ELA) of the Qiyi Glacier in the Qilian Mountain, we established a statistical model between ELA and its major influencing factors, warm season air temperature (air temperature averages for September, July and August) and cold season precipitation (total precipitation in the period January through March). Warm season air temperature was the leading climatic factor influencing ELA variations. The glacier ELA ascends (descends) 172 m when warm season air temperature increases (decreases) by 1°C, and ascends (descends) 62 m when cold season precipitation decreases (increases) by 10%. In the period 1958–2008, the glacier ELA showed a general increasing trend, ascending 230 m and reaching its highest altitude in 2006 at 5131 m a.s.l., close to the glacier summit. If future climate is similar to that in the period 2001–2008, the Qiyi Glacier will not stabilize until it retreats by 2.08 km.     

喜马拉雅山亚东?康马段现代冰川平衡线高度、分布特征及影响因素

利用《中国第二次冰川编目》的数据和卫星图, 结合野外地貌观测, 探讨喜马拉雅山亚东?康马段的冰川平衡线高度(ELA)、分布特征及影响因素。结果表明, 研究区现代冰川平均ELA 为5717 m, 库拉岗日地区稍高, 为5840~5957 m, 白马林岗日地区较低, 为5333~5373 m, 反映气候与地形大势对冰川ELA的控制。此外, 山脉的走向、坡向、冰川地形坡度以及冰川表面冰碛覆盖、雪崩等对冰川ELA有不同程度的影响。     

基于SAR影像估计慕士塔格峰地区冰川速度场

冰川速度是冰川学研究中的一个重要参数,遥感方法为获取冰川表面速度提供了一种有效的手段。由于慕士塔格峰地区常年有云覆盖,不能为速度提取提供足够多数量的光学影像。但是,基于SAR影像对偏移量的提取算法为该地区冰川流速的测量提供了一个有效的途径。分别获取两幅雷达影像(ALOS/PALSAR)距离向和方位向的偏移,通过信噪比和相关系数选择可信点,然后通过整体拟合的方法去除雷达图像整体偏移,得到与冰川运动相关的偏移信号,首次得到了慕士塔格峰地区冰川表面完整的速度分布情况,依据该地区的速度大小分布特点,对慕士塔格峰四周冰川进行了划分。并进一步分别分析了该地区冰川在距离向和方位向速度大小与地形的关系,表明速度的大小与地形具有直接的相关性。结果表明,基于SAR影像对的偏移量测量为冰川研究提供了一个有效的方法和手段。     

Large fluctuations in speed on Greenland's Jakobshavn Isbrae glacier

It is important to understand recent changes in the velocity of Greenland glaciers because the mass balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet is partly determined by the flow rates of these outlets. Jakobshavn Isbrae is Greenland's largest outlet glacier, draining about 6.5 per cent of the ice-sheet area, and it has been surveyed repeatedly since 1991 (ref. 2). Here we use remote sensing data to measure the velocity of Jakobshavn Isbrae between 1992 and 2003. We detect large variability of the velocity over time, including a slowing down from 6,700 m yr(-1) in 1985 to 5,700 m yr(-1) in 1992, and a subsequent speeding up to 9,400 m yr(-1) by 2000 and 12,600 m yr(-1) in 2003. These changes are consistent with earlier evidence for thickening of the glacier in the early 1990s and rapid thinning thereafter. Our observations indicate that fast-flowing glaciers can significantly alter ice discharge at sub-decadal timescales, with at least a potential to respond rapidly to a changing climate.     

基于无人机技术的藏东南帕隆4号冰川表面高程和运动速度变化研究

应用无人机技术，采用后差分测量（post processed kinematic，PPK）方法替代传统控制点的方法，对藏东南帕隆4号冰川消融区进行了航测，获得了2017—2018年3期高精度正射影像（DOM）、数字表面模型（DSM）和三维点云数据；分析了该冰川航测区内表面高程变化、运动速度空间差异和冰川微地貌特征等. 结果表明:PPK测量技术应用效果良好，无人机产品水平和垂直精度分别约为0.11和0.17 m；帕隆4号冰川消融区表面高程变化量呈现随海拔升高而降低的空间分布规律，冰川冰体整体减薄4.06 m；冰川表面运动速度随海拔升高而增大，呈现冰川中流线区域略快于两侧的空间分布特征；冰川表面地貌特征随海拔由高到低呈现趋于“平滑”的变化规律. 此外，还探究了无人机技术在冰川变化研究中的潜力，为未来利用无人机开展更大范围冰川变化的研究提供了有益经验.      

Recent area and ice volume change of Kangwure Glacier in the middle of Himalayas

This paper calculated and evaluated the area and ice volume changes of Kangwure Glacier in Mt. Xixiabangma, middle of Himalayas in the past 3 decades, based on the field survey of glacier boundary position by differential GPS and glacier depth by Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR), together with the topographic map and remote sense data. The studied data showed that the Kangwure Glacier has experienced significant mass deficit since the 1970s, with 34.2% of area loss, 48.2% of ice volume loss and 7.5 m of average thickness decrease. This result revealed that the ice volume loss of Himalayan glaciers was more serious than expected. Analysis of meteorological data from two weather stations in the region of Mt. Xixiabangma, shows that the air temperature of this region has risen from the middle of the 20th century to the beginning of the 21st century. Significant retreat of Himalayas glacier driven by climatic warming will have a remarkable impact on hydrology and ecosystem.     

Use of a multi-temporal grid method to analyze changes in glacier coverage in the Tibetan Plateau

This paper describes a multi-temporal grid method for quantifying changes in glacier coverage. A multi-temporal grid synthesizes spatial, attribute and process components of glacier information by sequentially combining spatial data from satellite images or maps. It enables us to identify glacier retreat and advance areas in individual grid cells for three or more periods of data sets. Discrepancies among the sequential data sets were detected graphically and numerically, including noise from geo-location error, misclassification, or different interpretation results in various pixel resolutions. Noise was detected and corrected to a large extent by visualization of the synthetic grid. The paper compares the results with that from a common method based on individual data sets, focusing on the Mt. Naimona'Nyi and Mt. Qomolangma regions at the northern slopes of the Himalayas. Results show that the identified noise (e.g. by 2.5 km2 in the Mt. Naimona'Nyi region) is much larger than measurement uncertainty calculated by sensor resolution and co-registration error (e.g. by 0.015 km2 in the Mt. Naimona'Nyi region). After noise removal, we notice that glacier recession clearly accelerates. The multi-temporal grid method results in a better quantification of glacier variation. It shows that glaciers in the Himalayas have both retreated and advanced during the last several decades, with retreat dominating and accelerating. Glaciers on the northern slope of Mt. Qomolangma in the middle Himalayas retreat more extensively and faster than those in the Mt. Naimona'Nyi region in the western Himalayas.     

Planetary science: are there active glaciers on Mars?

Head et al. interpret spectacular images from the Mars Express high-resolution stereo camera as evidence of geologically recent rock glaciers in Tharsis and of a piedmont ('hourglass') glacier at the base of a 3-km-high massif east of Hellas. They attribute growth of the low-latitude glaciers to snowfall during periods of increased spin-axis obliquity. The age of the hourglass glacier, considered to be inactive and slowly shrinking beneath a debris cover in the absence of modern snowfall, is estimated to be more than 40 Myr. Although we agree that the maximum glacier extent was climatically controlled, we find evidence in the images to support local augmentation of accumulation from snowfall through a mechanism that does not require climate change on Mars.     

Numerical simulation of Urumqi Glacier No. 1 in the eastern Tianshan, central Asia from 2005 to 2070

Due to climate changes, most of the alpine glaciers have retreated dramatically during the past decades. Thus it is significant to predict the alpine glacier variability in the future for a better understanding of the impact of climate changes on water resource. In this paper, we perform the numerical simulation on Urumqi Glacier No.1 in the eastern Tianshan, central Asia (hereafter Glacier No.1 for short) by considering both the mass balance and ice flow. Given the shape of the Glacier No.1, the velocity of the glacier is obtained by solving a two-dimensional nonlinear Stokes equation and simulated result is in agreement with the observation. In order to predict the variability of Glacier No.1 in the next decades, a climatic scenario is constructed with a temperature rise rate as 0.17°C/10 a and precipitation as constant during the period of 2005-2070. The simulation shows that, the glacier terminus will retreat slowly and the glacier will thin dramatically before 2040, while after year 2040, the glacier terminus retreat will accelerate. This study confirms the increasing retreat rate of alpine glaciers under global warming.