基于多变量相重构的混沌时间序列预测

提出了一种基于多变量相重构的混沌时间序列预测方法.该预测方法从非线性动力学系统中获取与待预测时间序列相关的信息组成多变量时间序列,首先进行多变量相空间重构,然后利用局域多元线性回归模型在相空间中进行预测,最后从预测出的高维相点中分离出时间序列的预测值.由于考虑了动力学系统中多个变量之间相互耦合的关系,从而增加了重构相空间的系统信息量,使得相空间的相点轨迹更加逼近原系统的动力学行为.与采用单变量进行预测的方法相比,基于多变量相重构的预测方法无论是单步预测还是多步预测,都能有效地提高预测精度,且具有嵌入维数的选择对预测精度影响较小的优点.通过对Lorenz混沌信号进行预测,实验结果验证了方法的有效性.     

基于最优结构多维泰勒网的含噪声非线性时变系统辨识

针对具有噪声干扰的非线性时变系统建模时存在的困难,建立了一种具有最优结构和最佳泛化能力的多维泰勒网模型,以实现对该系统的辨识.首先,为了能够快速反映系统输入/输出的变化,以多维泰勒网的连接权系数作为时变参数,并由带可变遗忘因子的递推最小二乘算法对其进行训练,进而讨论了辨识方案的稳定性.然后,为了避免维数灾难并满足实时性要求,给出了选择多维泰勒网有效回归项的改进权衰减法,以使多维泰勒网同时具有最小结构和最佳的泛化能力.最后,通过算例说明基于最优结构的多维泰勒网在含噪声非线性时变系统辨识问题中应用的方法,算例结果验证了该方法的有效性.     

基于卡尔曼滤波的混沌系统辨识

通过建立一种对混沌时间序列进行有效预测的方法构架,试图实现尽可能长期的混沌预测,并重构序列的主动态方程,以便于进一步的分析研究,根据非线性系统的一般框架,首先基于所观测时间序列的基本混沌特性寻找一典型混沌方程作为参考的系统动态方程;然后利用扩展卡尔曼滤波递推得到一动态方程式来逼近系统特性,重构混沌相空间吸引子,仿真结果表明,该方法可以实现较高精度的多步预测并有效地重构系统方程。     

基于SVM的瓦斯体积分数混沌时间序列预测

文章针对瓦斯体积分数时间序列的非线性和不确定性特征,提出了一种基于SVM的混沌时间序列预测方法.该方法采用改进的最大Lyapunov指数法识别时间序列的混沌特性,通过多次试验选取合适的参数构造SVM预测模型,最后使用优化的预测模型对φ瓦斯的变化趋势进行预测.仿真结果表明,该模型能够较好地解决φ瓦斯时间序列的预测问题,与RBF神经网络模型相比,具有较高的预测精度.     

并网型大型风电场风力发电功率-时间序列的混沌属性分析

为了合理调度大型并网型风力发电系统中的供电系统,降低供电系统的旋转备用容量和运行成本,对风力发电容量进行预测.利用非线性动力学的理论方法对并网型风力发电系统的发电容量-时间序列进行分析,以检验其是否存在混沌属性.通过对风力发电容量-时间序列进行低维非线性动力学建模,分析该时间序列呈现的混沌特性,该结果为基于混沌时间序列的风力发电容量预测奠定了基础.     

混沌时间序列的自适应正交小波神经网络预测

针对非线性混沌时间序列预测问题,提出一种基于正交小波神经网络的自适应预测算法.根据来自非线性序列模型的期望输入输出数据,利用小波框架理论建立初始的小波神经网络.采用正交化逐步选择方法对于初始小波神经网络进行结构优化,从而建立最精简的网络模型.同时引入在线学习算法在线修改网络权值和小波神经元的参数,从而提高模型的自适应能力和泛化能力.通过对时滞Mackey-Glass超时间序列和时变Lorenz混沌序列的预测,证明了算法的有效性.     

遗传算法在经济混沌组合预测中的应用

经济混沌是由确定性的经济系统产生具有随机性的动态行为。虽然经济系统产生的时间序列不具有长期预测性，但在短期内可有较为精确的预测，可以为其建立确定性的预测模型。为了探求经济时间序列中的混沌特性，文中在Wolf提出的相空间重构的基础上，提出了一种基于遗传算法的经济混沌组合预测方法，在该方法中采用自适应并行遗传算法确定组合模型中权系数，这样可以较好地解决传统经济混沌预测大多数都是使用单一模型以至影响了观测精度等问题，最后以实例检验了提出的算法。     

一种联合优化算法及其在混沌时间序列预测中的应用

为了提高混沌时间序列预测精度,利用相空间重构和预测模型参数间的相互联系,提出一种基于遗传算法的混沌时间序列参数联合优化方法.该方法首先将相空间重构和预测模型参数作为遗传算法的个体,混沌时间序列预测精度作为适应度函数,通过选择、交叉和变异等遗传操作获得最优参数,最后利用混沌时间序列实例对联合优化方法进行验证性测试.实验结果表明:相对于传统参数优化方法,联合优化方法大幅度提高混沌时间序列的预测精度,为混沌时间序列预测提供一种新的思路.     

基于混沌不稳定周期方法的风速时间序列预测

结合相空间重构理论,针对具有混沌特性的风速时间序列提出一种基于不稳定周期的预测方法.采用互信息法计算给定时间序列的延迟时间参数,根据时间序列运行轨迹的重合度,构造不稳定周期优化函数.通过对该函数的优化计算,得到嵌入维数参数及最佳不稳定周期值.根据所得延迟时间和嵌入维数等参数对风速时间序列进行相空间重构.利用前一不稳定周期轨迹附近的数值实现对未来风速时间序列的预测分析.仿真实验结果表明,该方法能够有效提高风速时间序列的预测性能,并可实现风速序列的多步预测分析.与持续法等传统预测方法相比,当预测步长增加时,该方法具有更稳定的预测性能.     

一种基于多维混沌时间序列的相空间重组技术(英文)

对给定的标量时间序列,利用Takens嵌入定理展开时间序列到高维并重构未知系统的吸引子,是从时间序列寻找决定性混沌证据的常用方法.在传统的一维时间序列重构技术基础上,提出一种更有效的多维时间序列相空间重构技术.对一些已知混沌系统如洛伦兹系统、陈系统、罗莎系统、罗宾系统和罗莎超混沌系统进行了重构.结果表明,与传统的重构技术相比,多维重构技术计算出的最大李雅普洛夫指数更精确,对于非混沌系统和附加噪音的混沌系统,多维重构技术也表现出一定的优势.     

Markedness and its Interpretation in Language Use

Language markedness is a common phenomenon in languages, and is reflected from hearing, vision and sense, i.e. the variation in the three aspects such as phonology, morphology and semantics. This paper focuses on the interpretation of markedness in language use following the three perspectives, i.e. pragmatic interpretation, psychological interpretation and cognitive interpretation, with an aim to define the function of markedness.     

Lower Paleozoic oil relationships within Williston Basin, Canada

The Williston Basin is a significant petroleum province, containing oil production zones that include the Middle Cambrian to Lower Ordovician, Upper Ordovician, Middle Devonian, Upper Devonian and Mississippian and within the Jurassic and Cretaceous. The oils of the Williston Basin exhibit a wide range of geochemical characteristics defined as "oil families", although the geochemical signature of the Cambrian Deadwood Formation and Lower Ordovician Winnipeg reservoired oils does not match any "oil family". Despite their close stratigraphic proximity, it is evident that the oils of the Lower Palaeozoic within the Williston Basin are distinct. This suggests the presence of a new "oil family" within the Williston Basin. Diagnostic geochemical signatures occur in the gasoline range chromatograms, within saturate fraction gas chromatograms and biomarker fingerprints. However, some of the established criteria and cross-plots that are currently used to segregate oils into distinct genetic families within the basin do not always meet with success, particularly when applied to the Lower Palaeozoic oils of the Deadwood and Winnipeg Formation.     

An Analysis of Catherine＇s Character——Wuthering Heights

Wuthering Heights, Emily Bronte＇s only novel, was published in December of 1847 under the pseudonym Ellis Bell. The book did not gain immediate success, but it is now thought one of the finest novels in the English language. Catherine is the key character of this masterpiece, because everybody and everything center on her though she had a short life. We can understand this masterpiece better if we know Catherine well.     

Characterization of Ordovician carbonate reservoirs, southeastern Saskatchewan, Canada

The discovery of the prolific Ordovician Red River reservoirs in 1995 in southeastern Saskatchewan was the catalyst for extensive exploration activity which resulted in the discovery of more than 15 new Red River pools. The best yields of Red River production to date have been from dolomite reservoirs. Understanding the processes of dolomitization is, therefore, crucial for the prediction of the connectivity, spatial distribution and heterogeneity of dolomite reservoirs.The Red River reservoirs in the Midale area consist of 3～4 thin dolomitized zones, with a total thickness of about 20 m, which occur at the top of the Yeoman Formation. Two types of replacement dolomite were recognized in the Red River reservoir: dolomitized burrow infills and dolomitized host matrix. The spatial distribution of dolomite suggests that burrowing organisms played an important role in facilitating the fluid flow in the backfilled sediments. This resulted in penecontemporaneous dolomitization of burrow infills by normal seawater. The dolomite in the host matrix is interpreted as having occurred at shallow burial by evaporitic seawater during precipitation of Lake Almar anhydrite that immediately overlies the Yeoman Formation. However, the low δ18O values of dolomited burrow infills (-5.9‰～ -7.8‰, PDB) and matrix dolomites (-6.6‰～ -8.1‰, avg. -7.4‰ PDB) compared to the estimated values for the late Ordovician marine dolomite could be attributed to modification and alteration of dolomite at higher temperatures during deeper burial, which could also be responsible for its 87Sr/86Sr ratios (0.7084～0.7088) that are higher than suggested for the late Ordovician seawaters (0.7078～0.7080). The trace amounts of saddle dolomite cement in the Red River carbonates are probably related to "cannibalization" of earlier replacement dolomite during the chemical compaction.     

Design and analysis of generic LBS application developing platform

Location based services is promising due to its novel working style and contents.A software platform is proposed to provide application programs of typical location based services and support new applications developing efficiently. The analysis shows that this scheme is easy implemented, low cost and adapt to all kinds of mobile nework system.     

橡胶颗粒沥青混合料低温抗裂性试验研究

以AC-13级配为基础,将橡胶颗粒代替部分集料掺入混合料中,以低温弯曲试验为评价方法对不同橡胶颗粒掺量下沥青混合料的低温抗裂性进行研究,并引入应变能密度值对混合料的低温抗裂性进行综合评价.试验结果表明:橡胶颗粒沥青混合料试件的破坏微应变均超过2 300,满足冬寒区的技术指标;无论是否掺加橡胶颗粒,随着温度的下降,沥青混合料破坏时的最大弯拉强度增大,弯拉应变降低,劲度模量增大;弯曲应变能密度在胶粒掺量为1%左右时具有较大的弯曲应变能密度值,此时橡胶颗粒沥青混合料具有较好的低温抗裂性.     

A computer generator for randomly layered structures

AcomputergeneratorforrandomlylayeredstructuresYUJia shun1,2,HEZhen hua2(1.TheInstituteofGeologicalandNuclearSciences,NewZealand;2.StateKeyLaboratoryofOilandGasReservoirGeologyandExploitation,ChengduUniversityofTechnology,China)Abstract:Analgorithmisintrod…     

低渗透非均质砂岩油藏启动压力梯度研究

理论推导与室内实验相结合,建立了低渗透非均质砂岩油藏启动压力梯度确定方法。首先借助油藏流场与电场相似的原理,推导了非均质砂岩油藏启动压力梯度计算公式。其次基于稳定流实验方法,建立了非均质砂岩油藏启动压力梯度测试方法。结果表明:低渗透非均质砂岩油藏的启动压力梯度确定遵循两个等效原则。平面非均质油藏的启动压力梯度等于各级渗透率段的启动压力梯度关于长度的加权平均;纵向非均质油藏的启动压力梯度等于各渗透率层的启动压力梯度关于渗透率与渗流面积乘积的加权平均。研究成果可用于有效指导低渗透非均质砂岩油藏的合理井距确定,促进该类油藏的高效开发。     

On Tragic Consciousness In The Works By Ernest Hemingway

As an American modern novelist who were famous in the literary world, Hemingway was not a person who always followed the trend but a sharp observer. At the same time, he was a tragedy maestro, he paid great attention on existence, fate and end-result. The dramatis personae's tragedy of his works was an extreme limit by all means tragedy on the meaning of fearless challenge that failed. The beauty of tragedy was not produced on the destruction of life, but now this kind of value was in the impact activity. They performed for the reader about the tragedy on challenging for the limit and the death.     

Quantitative trait loci （QTLs） for quality traits related to protein and starch in wheat

Quality traits in wheat （Triticum aestirum L.） were studied by quantitative trait locus （QTL） analysis in a recombinant inbred line （RIL） population, a set of 131 lines derived from Chuan 35050 × Shannong 483 cross （ChSh）. Grains from RILs were assayed for 21 quality traits related to protein and starch. A total of 35 putative QTLs for 19 traits with a single QTL explaining 7.99-40.52% of phenotypic variations were detected on 10 chromosomes, 1D, 2A, 2D, 3B, 3D, 5A, 6A, 6B, 6D, and 7B. The additive effects of 30 QTLs were positive, contributed by Chuan 35050, the remaining 5 QTLs were negative with the additive effect contributed by Shannong 483. For protein traits, 15 QTLs were obtained and most of them were located on chromosomes 1 D, 3B and 6D, while 20 QTLs for starch traits were detected and most of them were located on chromosomes 3D, 6B and 7B. Only 7 QTLs for protein and starch traits were co-located in three regions on chromosomes 1D, 2A and 2D. These protein and starch trait QTLs showed a distinct distribution pattern in certain regions and chromosomes. Twenty-two QTLs were clustered in 6 regions of 5 chromosomes. Two QTL clusters for protein traits were located on chromosomes 1D and 3B, respectively, three clusters for starch traits on chromosomes 3D, 6B and 7B, and one cluster including protein and starch traits on chromosome 1D.