Effect of remote sea surface temperature change on tropical cyclone potential intensity

The response of tropical cyclone activity to global warming is widely debated. It is often assumed that warmer sea surface temperatures provide a more favourable environment for the development and intensification of tropical cyclones, but cyclone genesis and intensity are also affected by the vertical thermodynamic properties of the atmosphere. Here we use climate models and observational reconstructions to explore the relationship between changes in sea surface temperature and tropical cyclone 'potential intensity'--a measure that provides an upper bound on cyclone intensity and can also reflect the likelihood of cyclone development. We find that changes in local sea surface temperature are inadequate for characterizing even the sign of changes in potential intensity, but that long-term changes in potential intensity are closely related to the regional structure of warming; regions that warm more than the tropical average are characterized by increased potential intensity, and vice versa. We use this relationship to reconstruct changes in potential intensity over the twentieth century from observational reconstructions of sea surface temperature. We find that, even though tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are currently at a historical high, Atlantic potential intensity probably peaked in the 1930s and 1950s, and recent values are near the historical average. Our results indicate that--per unit local sea surface temperature change--the response of tropical cyclone activity to natural climate variations, which tend to involve localized changes in sea surface temperature, may be larger than the response to the more uniform patterns of greenhouse-gas-induced warming.     

Magnitude and timing of temperature change in the Indo-Pacific warm pool during deglaciation

Ocean-atmosphere interactions in the tropical Pacific region have a strong influence on global heat and water vapour transport and thus constitute an important component of the climate system. Changes in sea surface temperatures and convection in the tropical Indo-Pacific region are thought to be responsible for the interannual to decadal climate variability observed in extra-tropical regions, but the role of the tropics in climate changes on millennial and orbital timescales is less clear. Here we analyse oxygen isotopes and Mg/Ca ratios of foraminiferal shells from the Makassar strait in the heart of the Indo-Pacific warm pool, to obtain synchronous estimates of sea surface temperatures and ice volume. We find that sea surface temperatures increased by 3.5-4.0 degrees C during the last two glacial-interglacial transitions, synchronous with the global increase in atmospheric CO2 and Antarctic warming, but the temperature increase occurred 2,000-3,000 years before the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets melted. Our observations suggest that the tropical Pacific region plays an important role in driving glacial-interglacial cycles, possibly through a system similar to how El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation regulates the poleward flux of heat and water vapour.     

Meteorology: hurricanes and global warming

Anthropogenic climate change has the potential for slightly increasing the intensity of tropical cyclones through warming of sea surface temperatures. Emanuel has shown a striking and surprising association between sea surface temperatures and destructiveness by tropical cyclones in the Atlantic and western North Pacific basins. However, I question his analysis on the following grounds: it does not properly represent the observations described; the use of his Atlantic bias-removal scheme may not be warranted; and further investigation of a substantially longer time series for tropical cyclones affecting the continental United States does not show a tendency for increasing destructiveness. These factors indicate that instead of "unprecedented" tropical cyclone activity having occurred in recent years, hurricane intensity was equal or even greater during the last active period in the mid-twentieth century.     

Coupling of surface temperatures and atmospheric CO2 concentrations during the Palaeozoic era

Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations seem to have been several times modern levels during much of the Palaeozoic era (543-248 million years ago), but decreased during the Carboniferous period to concentrations similar to that of today. Given that carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas, it has been proposed that surface temperatures were significantly higher during the earlier portions of the Palaeozoic era. A reconstruction of tropical sea surface temperatures based on the delta18O of carbonate fossils indicates, however, that the magnitude of temperature variability throughout this period was small, suggesting that global climate may be independent of variations in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. Here we present estimates of sea surface temperatures that were obtained from fossil brachiopod and mollusc shells using the 'carbonate clumped isotope' method-an approach that, unlike the delta18O method, does not require independent estimates of the isotopic composition of the Palaeozoic ocean. Our results indicate that tropical sea surface temperatures were significantly higher than today during the Early Silurian period (443-423 Myr ago), when carbon dioxide concentrations are thought to have been relatively high, and were broadly similar to today during the Late Carboniferous period (314-300 Myr ago), when carbon dioxide concentrations are thought to have been similar to the present-day value. Our results are consistent with the proposal that increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations drive or amplify increased global temperatures.     

Regional climate shifts caused by gradual global cooling in the Pliocene epoch

The Earth's climate has undergone a global transition over the past four million years, from warm conditions with global surface temperatures about 3 degrees C warmer than today, smaller ice sheets and higher sea levels to the current cooler conditions. Tectonic changes and their influence on ocean heat transport have been suggested as forcing factors for that transition, including the onset of significant Northern Hemisphere glaciation approximately 2.75 million years ago, but the ultimate causes for the climatic changes are still under debate. Here we compare climate records from high latitudes, subtropical regions and the tropics, indicating that the onset of large glacial/interglacial cycles did not coincide with a specific climate reorganization event at lower latitudes. The regional differences in the timing of cooling imply that global cooling was a gradual process, rather than the response to a single threshold or episodic event as previously suggested. We also find that high-latitude climate sensitivity to variations in solar heating increased gradually, culminating after cool tropical and subtropical upwelling conditions were established two million years ago. Our results suggest that mean low-latitude climate conditions can significantly influence global climate feedbacks.     

The relationship between sea surface temperature anomaly and wind energy input in the Pacific Ocean

The relationship between sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) and wind energy input in the Pacific Ocean over the period of 1949–2003 is studied by using daily-mean NOAA/NCEP wind stress and monthly mean Reynolds SST data. The results indicate the strong negative correlation between SSTA and local wind energy input to surface waves in most of the domain at low and middle latitudes. The SST is low (high) during the years with more (less) wind energy input. The correlation coefficients are high in the central and eastern tropical Pacific and the central midlatitude North Pacific at the decadal scale, and in the central tropical Pacific at the interannual scale. Vertical mixing processes in the upper ocean are closely associated with wind energy input, indicating that wind energy input may play an important role in interannual and decadal variability in the Pacific Ocean via regulating vertical mixing.     

Decline of surface temperature and salinity in the western tropical Pacific Ocean in the Holocene epoch

In the present-day climate, surface water salinities are low in the western tropical Pacific Ocean and increase towards the eastern part of the basin. The salinity of surface waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean is thought to be controlled by a combination of atmospheric convection, precipitation, evaporation and ocean dynamics, and on interannual timescales significant variability is associated with the El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation cycles. However, little is known about the variability of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system on timescales of centuries to millennia. Here we combine oxygen isotope and Mg/Ca data from foraminifers retrieved from three sediment cores in the western tropical Pacific Ocean to reconstruct Holocene sea surface temperatures and salinities in the region. We find a decrease in sea surface temperatures of approximately 0.5 degrees C over the past 10,000 yr, whereas sea surface salinities decreased by approximately 1.5 practical salinity units. Our data imply either that the Pacific basin as a whole has become progressively less salty or that the present salinity gradient along the Equator has developed relatively recently.     

Advancing decadal-scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector

The climate of the North Atlantic region exhibits fluctuations on decadal timescales that have large societal consequences. Prominent examples include hurricane activity in the Atlantic, and surface-temperature and rainfall variations over North America, Europe and northern Africa. Although these multidecadal variations are potentially predictable if the current state of the ocean is known, the lack of subsurface ocean observations that constrain this state has been a limiting factor for realizing the full skill potential of such predictions. Here we apply a simple approach-that uses only sea surface temperature (SST) observations-to partly overcome this difficulty and perform retrospective decadal predictions with a climate model. Skill is improved significantly relative to predictions made with incomplete knowledge of the ocean state, particularly in the North Atlantic and tropical Pacific oceans. Thus these results point towards the possibility of routine decadal climate predictions. Using this method, and by considering both internal natural climate variations and projected future anthropogenic forcing, we make the following forecast: over the next decade, the current Atlantic meridional overturning circulation will weaken to its long-term mean; moreover, North Atlantic SST and European and North American surface temperatures will cool slightly, whereas tropical Pacific SST will remain almost unchanged. Our results suggest that global surface temperature may not increase over the next decade, as natural climate variations in the North Atlantic and tropical Pacific temporarily offset the projected anthropogenic warming.     

Arabian Sea tropical cyclones intensified by emissions of black carbon and other aerosols

Throughout the year, average sea surface temperatures in the Arabian Sea are warm enough to support the development of tropical cyclones, but the atmospheric monsoon circulation and associated strong vertical wind shear limits cyclone development and intensification, only permitting a pre-monsoon and post-monsoon period for cyclogenesis. Thus a recent increase in the intensity of tropical cyclones over the northern Indian Ocean is thought to be related to the weakening of the climatological vertical wind shear. At the same time, anthropogenic emissions of aerosols have increased sixfold since the 1930s, leading to a weakening of the southwesterly lower-level and easterly upper-level winds that define the monsoonal circulation over the Arabian Sea. In principle, this aerosol-driven circulation modification could affect tropical cyclone intensity over the Arabian Sea, but so far no such linkage has been shown. Here we report an increase in the intensity of pre-monsoon Arabian Sea tropical cyclones during the period 1979-2010, and show that this change in storm strength is a consequence of a simultaneous upward trend in anthropogenic black carbon and sulphate emissions. We use a combination of observational, reanalysis and model data to demonstrate that the anomalous circulation, which is radiatively forced by these anthropogenic aerosols, reduces the basin-wide vertical wind shear, creating an environment more favourable for tropical cyclone intensification. Because most Arabian Sea tropical cyclones make landfall, our results suggest an additional impact on human health from regional air pollution.     

Warming magnitude of Indonesian Throughflow during the penultimate deglaciation (Termination II) and its relationship with climate change in high-latitude regions

The tropical oceans are important source areas for global heat and water vapor transport, and changes in tropical sea surface tem-perature (SST) will have important impacts on high-latitude and global climate change. It is crucial to establish the precise phase relationship between tropical and high-latitude climate variability to gain insight into the mechanisms of global climate change. Here, we present multi-proxy records across the penultimate deglaciation (Termination II) from sediment Core SO18459, which is located in the outflow area of the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) of the Timor Sea. These proxy records include planktonic and benthic foraminifera δ¹⁸O, planktonic foraminifera G. ruber Mg/Ca-derived SST, and δ¹⁸O_w of sea surface water. The Mg/Ca-SST records indicate a warming of 4.1°C in the Timor Sea over Termination II, which is in phase with decrease in planktonic and benthic δ¹⁸O. Our results suggest that at millennial timescales, climate change of the tropical oceans is synchronous with high-latitude ice volume changes. Furthermore, warming of the Timor Sea is almost simultaneous with warming of the Antarctic, suggesting a rapid heat transfer from the tropics to the Antarctic via the atmosphere and/or ocean circulations. The G. ruber δ¹⁸O and SST records of Core SO18459 show a marked YD-like event during Termination II, which is probably caused by decrease in Australian rainfall or strengthening of the Western Pacific Warm Pool. However, a similar YD-like event is not observed in East Asian rainfall records. This discrepancy indicates that different tropical climate systems may have different responses to the same forcing, such as El Niño Southern Oscillation. A similar YD-like event is observed in the global benthic foraminiferal δ¹⁸O records during Termination II, implying teleconnection of millennial scale climate change between the tropical regions and high latitudes.     

Eastern Pacific cooling and Atlantic overturning circulation during the last deglaciation

Surface ocean conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean could hold the clue to whether millennial-scale global climate change during glacial times was initiated through tropical ocean-atmosphere feedbacks or by changes in the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. North Atlantic cold periods during Heinrich events and millennial-scale cold events (stadials) have been linked with climatic changes in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and South America, as well as the Indian and East Asian monsoon systems, but not with tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures. Here we present a high-resolution record of sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific derived from alkenone unsaturation measurements. Our data show a temperature drop of approximately 1 degrees C, synchronous (within dating uncertainties) with the shutdown of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation during Heinrich event 1, and a smaller temperature drop of approximately 0.5 degrees C synchronous with the smaller reduction in the overturning circulation during the Younger Dryas event. Both cold events coincide with maxima in surface ocean productivity as inferred from 230Th-normalized carbon burial fluxes, suggesting increased upwelling at the time. From the concurrence of equatorial Pacific cooling with the two North Atlantic cold periods during deglaciation, we conclude that these millennial-scale climate changes were probably driven by a reorganization of the oceans' thermohaline circulation, although possibly amplified by tropical ocean-atmosphere interaction as suggested before.     

海洋动力系统数值模式体系及海浪-环流耦合理论

从系统科学的观点出发,把海洋运动按照时空尺度分解成小尺度(以海浪为代表)子系统、中尺度(以内波为代表)子系统、大尺度(以大洋波动和环流为代表)子系统,并把海洋和大气之间通过近海面海洋大气层进行相互作用的部分称为近海面海洋大气边界层子系统。考虑各子系统之间的相互作用,提出了从海洋动力系统观点出发发展海洋数值模式体系的科学思路。通过考虑海浪对环流的垂向混合作用,将海浪的运动混合作用解析表达为可以通过海浪数值模式直接计算的海浪谱形式,建立了海浪-环流耦合理论。这一理论不仅将普林斯顿环流模式全球上100米的模拟海温与Levitus资料之间的平均相关系数从0.58提高到了0.76,而且加深了我们对中国近海海洋环流系统的理解,同时对气候模式热带偏差这一共性问题有显著改善。该理论对海洋环境预报和全球气候变化预测具有重要意义。     

大西洋热盐环流减弱对热带太平洋气候平均态及年际变率的影响

利用一个完全耦合的海气模式, 通过对比分析两组试验中海表温度、盐度、风应力等气候态变化特征以及ENSO强度和频率的变化, 研究热带太平洋气候平均态及年际变率对热盐环流减弱的响应。在北大西洋高纬地区注入1 Sv淡水后, 大西洋经向翻转流(AMOC)减弱约90%, 这直接导致向北的经向热量输送减少, 使北大西洋有明显降温, 南大西洋略有升温。这些变化会经过大气和海洋的远程传播以及局地海气反馈作用, 影响热带太平洋气候平均态: 赤道东西太平洋的SST都略有增温, 但纬向温度梯度和纬向风应力并没有太大变化, 赤道太平洋温跃层的深度和倾斜度也基本保持不变。相应地, ENSO强度和频率也没有明显变化。由此得出结论: 热盐环流减弱会引起全球气候平均态的变化, 但对热带太平洋的年际变率没有太大影响。     

Stable sea surface temperatures in the western Pacific warm pool over the past 1.75 million years

About 850,000 years ago, the period of the glacial cycles changed from 41,000 to 100,000 years. This mid-Pleistocene climate transition has been attributed to global cooling, possibly caused by a decrease in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. However, evidence for such cooling is currently restricted to the cool upwelling regions in the eastern equatorial oceans, although the tropical warm pools on the western side of the ocean basins are particularly sensitive to changes in radiative forcing. Here we present high-resolution records of sea surface temperatures spanning the past 1.75 million years, obtained from oxygen isotopes and Mg/Ca ratios in planktonic foraminifera from the western Pacific warm pool. In contrast with the eastern equatorial regions, sea surface temperatures in the western Pacific warm pool are relatively stable throughout the Pleistocene epoch, implying little long-term change in the tropical net radiation budget. Our results challenge the hypothesis of a gradual decrease in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations as a dominant trigger of the longer glacial cycles since 850,000 years ago. Instead, we infer that the temperature contrast across the equatorial Pacific Ocean increased, which might have had a significant influence on the mid-Pleistocene climate transition.     

Evidence for decoupling of atmospheric CO2 and global climate during the Phanerozoic eon

Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations are believed to drive climate changes from glacial to interglacial modes, although geological and astronomical mechanisms have been invoked as ultimate causes. Additionally, it is unclear whether the changes between cold and warm modes should be regarded as a global phenomenon, affecting tropical and high-latitude temperatures alike, or if they are better described as an expansion and contraction of the latitudinal climate zones, keeping equatorial temperatures approximately constant. Here we present a reconstruction of tropical sea surface temperatures throughout the Phanerozoic eon (the past approximately 550 Myr) from our database of oxygen isotopes in calcite and aragonite shells. The data indicate large oscillations of tropical sea surface temperatures in phase with the cold-warm cycles, thus favouring the idea of climate variability as a global phenomenon. But our data conflict with a temperature reconstruction using an energy balance model that is forced by reconstructed atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. The results can be reconciled if atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations were not the principal driver of climate variability on geological timescales for at least one-third of the Phanerozoic eon, or if the reconstructed carbon dioxide concentrations are not reliable.     

Attribution of observed surface humidity changes to human influence

Water vapour is the most important contributor to the natural greenhouse effect, and the amount of water vapour in the atmosphere is expected to increase under conditions of greenhouse-gas-induced warming, leading to a significant feedback on anthropogenic climate change. Theoretical and modelling studies predict that relative humidity will remain approximately constant at the global scale as the climate warms, leading to an increase in specific humidity. Although significant increases in surface specific humidity have been identified in several regions, and on the global scale in non-homogenized data, it has not been shown whether these changes are due to natural or human influences on climate. Here we use a new quality-controlled and homogenized gridded observational data set of surface humidity, with output from a coupled climate model, to identify and explore the causes of changes in surface specific humidity over the late twentieth century. We identify a significant global-scale increase in surface specific humidity that is attributable mainly to human influence. Specific humidity is found to have increased in response to rising temperatures, with relative humidity remaining approximately constant. These changes may have important implications, because atmospheric humidity is a key variable in determining the geographical distribution and maximum intensity of precipitation, the potential maximum intensity of tropical cyclones, and human heat stress, and has important effects on the biosphere and surface hydrology.     

Closing of the Indonesian seaway as a precursor to east African aridification around 3-4 million years ago

Global climate change around 3-4 Myr ago is thought to have influenced the evolution of hominids, via the aridification of Africa, and may have been the precursor to Pleistocene glaciation about 2.75 Myr ago. Most explanations of these climatic events involve changes in circulation of the North Atlantic Ocean due to the closing of the Isthmus of Panama. Here we suggest, instead, that closure of the Indonesian seaway 3-4 Myr ago could be responsible for these climate changes, in particular the aridification of Africa. We use simple theory and results from an ocean circulation model to show that the northward displacement of New Guinea, about 5 Myr ago, may have switched the source of flow through Indonesia-from warm South Pacific to relatively cold North Pacific waters. This would have decreased sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean, leading to reduced rainfall over eastern Africa. We further suggest that the changes in the equatorial Pacific may have reduced atmospheric heat transport from the tropics to higher latitudes, stimulating global cooling and the eventual growth of ice sheets.     

Intense hurricane activity over the past 5,000 years controlled by El Niño and the West African monsoon

The processes that control the formation, intensity and track of hurricanes are poorly understood. It has been proposed that an increase in sea surface temperatures caused by anthropogenic climate change has led to an increase in the frequency of intense tropical cyclones, but this proposal has been challenged on the basis that the instrumental record is too short and unreliable to reveal trends in intense tropical cyclone activity. Storm-induced deposits preserved in the sediments of coastal lagoons offer the opportunity to study the links between climatic conditions and hurricane activity on longer timescales, because they provide centennial- to millennial-scale records of past hurricane landfalls. Here we present a record of intense hurricane activity in the western North Atlantic Ocean over the past 5,000 years based on sediment cores from a Caribbean lagoon that contain coarse-grained deposits associated with intense hurricane landfalls. The record indicates that the frequency of intense hurricane landfalls has varied on centennial to millennial scales over this interval. Comparison of the sediment record with palaeo-climate records indicates that this variability was probably modulated by atmospheric dynamics associated with variations in the El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation and the strength of the West African monsoon, and suggests that sea surface temperatures as high as at present are not necessary to support intervals of frequent intense hurricanes. To accurately predict changes in intense hurricane activity, it is therefore important to understand how the El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation and the West African monsoon will respond to future climate change.     

Evidence for enhanced mixing over rough topography in the abyssal ocean

The overturning circulation of the ocean plays an important role in modulating the Earth's climate. But whereas the mechanisms for the vertical transport of water into the deep ocean--deep water formation at high latitudes--and horizontal transport in ocean currents have been largely identified, it is not clear how the compensating vertical transport of water from the depths to the surface is accomplished. Turbulent mixing across surfaces of constant density is the only viable mechanism for reducing the density of the water and enabling it to rise. However, measurements of the internal wave field, the main source of energy for mixing, and of turbulent dissipation rates, have typically implied diffusivities across surfaces of equal density of only approximately 0.1 cm2 s(-1), too small to account for the return flow. Here we report measurements of tracer dispersion and turbulent energy dissipation in the Brazil basin that reveal diffusivities of 2-4 cm2 s(-1) at a depth of 500 m above abyssal hills on the flank of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, and approximately 10 cm2 s(-1) nearer the bottom. This amount of mixing, probably driven by breaking internal waves that are generated by tidal currents flowing over the rough bathymetry, may be large enough to close the buoyancy budget for the Brazil basin and suggests a mechanism for closing the global overturning circulation.     

Aerosols implicated as a prime driver of twentieth-century North Atlantic climate variability

Systematic climate shifts have been linked to multidecadal variability in observed sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean. These links are extensive, influencing a range of climate processes such as hurricane activity and African Sahel and Amazonian droughts. The variability is distinct from historical global-mean temperature changes and is commonly attributed to natural ocean oscillations. A number of studies have provided evidence that aerosols can influence long-term changes in sea surface temperatures, but climate models have so far failed to reproduce these interactions and the role of aerosols in decadal variability remains unclear. Here we use a state-of-the-art Earth system climate model to show that aerosol emissions and periods of volcanic activity explain 76 per cent of the simulated multidecadal variance in detrended 1860-2005 North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. After 1950, simulated variability is within observational estimates; our estimates for 1910-1940 capture twice the warming of previous generation models but do not explain the entire observed trend. Other processes, such as ocean circulation, may also have contributed to variability in the early twentieth century. Mechanistically, we find that inclusion of aerosol-cloud microphysical effects, which were included in few previous multimodel ensembles, dominates the magnitude (80 per cent) and the spatial pattern of the total surface aerosol forcing in the North Atlantic. Our findings suggest that anthropogenic aerosol emissions influenced a range of societally important historical climate events such as peaks in hurricane activity and Sahel drought. Decadal-scale model predictions of regional Atlantic climate will probably be improved by incorporating aerosol-cloud microphysical interactions and estimates of future concentrations of aerosols, emissions of which are directly addressable by policy actions.