The interdecadal trend and shift of dry/wet over the central part of North China and their relationship to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO）

Based on monthly precipitation and monthly mean surface air temperature (SAT),the dry/wet trends and shift of the central part of North China and their relationship to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) from 1951 to 2005 have been analyzed through calculating surface wetness index (SWI). The results indicate that there was a prominent drying trend and an abrupt change in the analysis period. A per-sistent warming period with less precipitation from the mid and late 1970s to present was found,and a shift process exists from the wet to the dry in the central part of North China during 1951-2005. The transition is located in the mid to late 1970s,which should be related to the shift variation of large-scale climate background. The correlation analysis has brought about a finding of significant correlativity between PDO index (PDOI) and SAT,precipitation and SWI in this region. The correlation exhibits that the positive phase of PDOI (warm PDO phase) matches warming,less precipitation and the drought period,and the negative PDOI phase corresponds to low SAT,more precipitation and the wet period. The duration of various phases is more than 25 years. The decadal variation of sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Pacific Ocean is one of the possible causes in forming the decadal dry/wet trend and shift of the central part of North China.     

Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years

Theory and modelling predict that hurricane intensity should increase with increasing global mean temperatures, but work on the detection of trends in hurricane activity has focused mostly on their frequency and shows no trend. Here I define an index of the potential destructiveness of hurricanes based on the total dissipation of power, integrated over the lifetime of the cyclone, and show that this index has increased markedly since the mid-1970s. This trend is due to both longer storm lifetimes and greater storm intensities. I find that the record of net hurricane power dissipation is highly correlated with tropical sea surface temperature, reflecting well-documented climate signals, including multi-decadal oscillations in the North Atlantic and North Pacific, and global warming. My results suggest that future warming may lead to an upward trend in tropical cyclone destructive potential, and--taking into account an increasing coastal population--a substantial increase in hurricane-related losses in the twenty-first century.     

Modeling studies on the changes of the Subtropical High over the Western Pacific during the last 100 years

Intensity index series of Subtropical High over the Western Pacific was constructed according to modeling results by using of CCM3.6 atmospheric model with climatologically SST forcing for 30 years, and with observed SST forcing from 1900 to 2000. The index series constructed by modeling closely correlated to the observations for 1951-1999 (c.c. 0.72) and to the statistically reconstructed one for 1900-1950 (c.c. 0.51). The index series for 1900-1999 showed significant 80 a and 40 a periodicity. A minimum of persistence in seasonal variations of the index occurred in Autumn, which was called "Autumn Barrier". It may relate to the "Spring Barrier", found in the seasonal variations of SST over the Eastern Equatorial Pacific. The increasing trend shown in the index series for the 20th century may associate with the global warming caused by enhancement of greenhouse effect.     

The spring soil moisture and the summer rainfall in eastern China

The relation between the soil moisture in spring and the rainfall in summer in eastern China is investi- gated. Results show that the summer rainfall in eastern China is closely related to the spring soil moisture in the area from North China to the lower reaches of Yangtze River (NCYR). When spring soil moisture anomalies over NCYR are positive, the summer precipitation exhibits positive anomalies in Northeast China and the lower reaches of Yangtze River, and negative anomalies in southern China and North China. The higher soil moisture over NCYR cools land surface and reduces the land-sea tem- perature gradient, which weakens East Asian summer monsoon. The western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) is located to the south and shifts westward, resulting in more rainfall in the lower reaches of Yangtze River and less in southern China and North China.     

Arctic sea ice bordering on the North Atlantic and interannual climate variations

Variations of winter Arctic sea ice bordering on the North Atlantic are closely related to climate variations in the same region. When winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index is positive (negative) anomaly phase, Icelandic Low is obviously deepened and shifts northwards (southwards). Simultaneously, the Subtropical High over the North Atlantic is also intensified, and moves northwards (southwards). Those anomalies strengthen (weaken) westerly between Icelandic Low and the Subtropical High, and further result in positive (negative) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the mid-latitude of the North Atlantic, and increase (decrease) the warm water transportation from the mid-latitude to the Barents Sea, which causes positive (negative) mixed-layer water temperature anomalies in the south part of the Barents Sea. Moreover, the distribution of anomaly air temperature clearly demonstrates warming (cooling) in northern Europe and the subarctic regions (including the Barents Sea) and cooling (warming) in Baffin Bay/Davis Strait. Both of distributions of SST and air temperature anomalies directly result in sea ice decrease (increase) in the Barents/Kara Seas, and sea ice increase (decrease) in Baffin Bay/Davis Strait. :     

Relationship between real meridional volume transport and Sverdrup transport in the North Subtropical Pacific

The meridional volume transport (MVT) associated with the wind-driven gyre is an important index for ocean general circulations because it is closely related to the poleward oceanic heat transport. In particular, the mass transport by the subtropical gyre…     

The mean residence time of river water in the Canada Basin

Seawater was collected from the western Arctic Ocean for measurements of 18О, ^226Ra and ^228Ra. The fractions of river runoff and sea ice melt-water in water samples were estimated by using δ^18О-S-PО^＊ tracer system. The mean residence time of river water in the Canada Basin was calculated based on the relationship between ^228Ra/^226Ra）A.R. and the fractions of river runoff in the shelf and deep ocean. Our results showed that the river runoff fractions in the Canada Basin were significantly higher than those in the shelf regions, suggesting that the Canada Basin is a major storage region for Arctic river water. ^228Ra activity concentrations in the Chukchi shelf and the Beaufort shelf ranged from 0.16 to 1.22 Bq/m^3, lower than those reported for shelves in the low and middle latitudes, indicating the effect of sea ice melt-water. A good positive linear relationship was observed between ^228Ra/^226Ra）A.R. and the fraction of river runoff for shelf waters, while the ^228Ra/^226Ra）A.R. in the Canada Basin was located below this re-gressive line. The low ^228Ra/^226Ra）A.R. in the Canada Basin was ascribed to ^228Ra decay during shelf wa-ters transporting to the deep ocean. The residence time of 5.0-11.0 a was estimated for the river water in the Canada Basin, which determined the time response of surface freshening in the North Atlantic to the river runoff into the Arctic Ocean.     

Detection of human influence on sea-level pressure

Greenhouse gases and tropospheric sulphate aerosols--the main human influences on climate--have been shown to have had a detectable effect on surface air temperature, the temperature of the free troposphere and stratosphere and ocean temperature. Nevertheless, the question remains as to whether human influence is detectable in any variable other than temperature. Here we detect an influence of anthropogenic greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols in observations of winter sea-level pressure (December to February), using combined simulations from four climate models. We find increases in sea-level pressure over the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean, southern Europe and North Africa, and decreases in the polar regions and the North Pacific Ocean, in response to human influence. Our analysis also indicates that the climate models substantially underestimate the magnitude of the sea-level pressure response. This discrepancy suggests that the upward trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation index (corresponding to strengthened westerlies in the North Atlantic region), as simulated in a number of global warming scenarios, may be too small, leading to an underestimation of the impacts of anthropogenic climate change on European climate.     

Advancing decadal-scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector

The climate of the North Atlantic region exhibits fluctuations on decadal timescales that have large societal consequences. Prominent examples include hurricane activity in the Atlantic, and surface-temperature and rainfall variations over North America, Europe and northern Africa. Although these multidecadal variations are potentially predictable if the current state of the ocean is known, the lack of subsurface ocean observations that constrain this state has been a limiting factor for realizing the full skill potential of such predictions. Here we apply a simple approach-that uses only sea surface temperature (SST) observations-to partly overcome this difficulty and perform retrospective decadal predictions with a climate model. Skill is improved significantly relative to predictions made with incomplete knowledge of the ocean state, particularly in the North Atlantic and tropical Pacific oceans. Thus these results point towards the possibility of routine decadal climate predictions. Using this method, and by considering both internal natural climate variations and projected future anthropogenic forcing, we make the following forecast: over the next decade, the current Atlantic meridional overturning circulation will weaken to its long-term mean; moreover, North Atlantic SST and European and North American surface temperatures will cool slightly, whereas tropical Pacific SST will remain almost unchanged. Our results suggest that global surface temperature may not increase over the next decade, as natural climate variations in the North Atlantic and tropical Pacific temporarily offset the projected anthropogenic warming.     

Climate change in the North Pacific region over the past three centuries

The relatively short length of most instrumental climate records restricts the study of climate variability, and it is therefore essential to extend the record into the past with the help of proxy data. Only since the late 1940s have atmospheric data been available that are sufficient in quality and spatial resolution to identify the dominant patterns of climate variability, such as the Pacific North America pattern and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Here we present a 301-year snow accumulation record from an ice core at a height of 5,340 m above sea level-from Mount Logan, in northwestern North America. This record shows features that are closely linked with the Pacific North America pattern for the period of instrumental data availability. Our record extends back in time to cover the period from the closing stages of the Little Ice Age to the warmest decade in the past millennium. We find a positive, accelerating trend in snow accumulation after the middle of the nineteenth century. This trend is paralleled by a warming over northwestern North America which has been associated with secular changes in both the Pacific North America pattern and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.     

Weakening of tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation due to anthropogenic forcing

Since the mid-nineteenth century the Earth's surface has warmed, and models indicate that human activities have caused part of the warming by altering the radiative balance of the atmosphere. Simple theories suggest that global warming will reduce the strength of the mean tropical atmospheric circulation. An important aspect of this tropical circulation is a large-scale zonal (east-west) overturning of air across the equatorial Pacific Ocean--driven by convection to the west and subsidence to the east--known as the Walker circulation. Here we explore changes in tropical Pacific circulation since the mid-nineteenth century using observations and a suite of global climate model experiments. Observed Indo-Pacific sea level pressure reveals a weakening of the Walker circulation. The size of this trend is consistent with theoretical predictions, is accurately reproduced by climate model simulations and, within the climate models, is largely due to anthropogenic forcing. The climate model indicates that the weakened surface winds have altered the thermal structure and circulation of the tropical Pacific Ocean. These results support model projections of further weakening of tropical atmospheric circulation during the twenty-first century.     

Summertime Subtropical Countercurrent on isopycnals in the western North Pacific

Circulations on isopycnals (σrθ) in the western North Pacific were investigated by using P-vector method;the data were taken from the U.S. Navy's climatological temperature and salinity dataset (public domain) with 1/2°×1/2° resolution. Results not only show the main circulation systems on isopycnals in the western North Pacific such as the North Equatorial Current (NEC), Kuroshio and Kuroshio Countercurrent, but also reveal the Subtropical Countercurrent (STCC) clearly. In this note we pay attention to discussing the distribution of STCC in summer (in June).The STCC flows eastward along a winding road; on shallow isopycnals, the STCC originates from the area east of Bashi Strait at about 122.5°E; with the isopycnals increasing, the origin and flow core of STCC move to north and east, but the main part of STCC is still between 18° and 23.5°N, i.e.near the Tropic of Cancer. There exists STCC on all isopycnals between the sea surface and 25.8 σθThe current vectors of STCC on isopycnais are shown for the first time, and the distribution of the potential vorticity indicates that STCC is just overlying the southern boundary of the Subtropical Mode Water (STMW).``     

The effect of advection on the nutrient reservoir in the North Atlantic subtropical gyre

Though critically important in sustaining the ocean's biological pump, the cycling of nutrients in the subtropical gyres is poorly understood. The supply of nutrients to the sunlit surface layer of the ocean has traditionally been attributed solely to vertical processes. However, horizontal advection may also be important in establishing the availability of nutrients. Here we show that the production and advection of North Atlantic Subtropical Mode Water introduces spatial and temporal variability in the subsurface nutrient reservoir beneath the North Atlantic subtropical gyre. As the mode water is formed, its nutrients are depleted by biological utilization. When the depleted water mass is exported to the gyre, it injects a wedge of low-nutrient water into the upper layers of the ocean. Contrary to intuition, cold winters that promote deep convective mixing and vigorous mode water formation may diminish downstream primary productivity by altering the subsurface delivery of nutrients.     

Environmental precursors to rapid light carbon injection at the Palaeocene/Eocene boundary

The start of the Palaeocene/Eocene thermal maximum--a period of exceptional global warming about 55 million years ago--is marked by a prominent negative carbon isotope excursion that reflects a massive input of 13C-depleted ('light') carbon to the ocean-atmosphere system. It is often assumed that this carbon injection initiated the rapid increase in global surface temperatures and environmental change that characterize the climate perturbation, but the exact sequence of events remains uncertain. Here we present chemical and biotic records of environmental change across the Palaeocene/Eocene boundary from two sediment sections in New Jersey that have high sediment accumulation rates. We show that the onsets of environmental change (as recorded by the abundant occurrence ('acme') of the dinoflagellate cyst Apectodinium) and of surface-ocean warming (as evidenced by the palaeothermometer TEX86) preceded the light carbon injection by several thousand years. The onset of the Apectodinium acme also precedes the carbon isotope excursion in sections from the southwest Pacific Ocean and the North Sea, indicating that the early onset of environmental change was not confined to the New Jersey shelf. The lag of approximately 3,000 years between the onset of warming in New Jersey shelf waters and the carbon isotope excursion is consistent with the hypothesis that bottom water warming caused the injection of 13C-depleted carbon by triggering the dissociation of submarine methane hydrates, but the cause of the early warming remains uncertain.     

Sea surface temperature east of Australia： A predictor of tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific？

The relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) east of Australia and tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific (WNPTCF) is analyzed by use of observation data.The WNPTCF from June to October is correlated negatively to spring SST east of Australia.When the spring SST is in the positive phase,a cyclonic circulation anomaly in the upper troposphere and an anticyclonic circulation anomaly in the lower troposphere prevail over the western North Pacific from June to October,concurrent with an anomalous atmospheric subsidence and an enlarged vertical zonal wind shear.These conditions are unfavorable for tropical cyclone genesis,and thus WNPTCF decreases.The negative phase of the spring SST east of Australia leads to more tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific.The spring SST east of Australia may give rise to simultaneous change in tropical atmospheric circulation via the teleconnection wave train,and then subsequently affect atmospheric circulation variation over the western North Pacific.     

Decadal co-variability of the summer surface air temperature and soil moisture in China under global warming

The self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) is calculated using newly updated ground observations of monthly surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation in China. The co-variabilities of PDSI and SAT are examined for summer for the period 1961-2004. The results show that there exist decadal climate co-variabilities and strong nonlinear interactions between SAT and soil moisture in many regions of China. Some of the co-variabilities can be linked to global warming. In summer,sig-nificant decadal co-variabilities from cool-wet to warm-dry conditions are found in the east region of Northwest China,North China,and Northeast China. An important finding is that in the west region of Northwest China and Southeast China,pronounced decadal co-variabilities take place from warm-dry to cool-wet conditions. Because significant warming was observed over most areas of the global land surface during the past 20-30 years,the shift to cool-wet conditions is a unique phenomenon which may deserve much scientific attention. The nonlinear interactions between SAT and soil moisture may partly account for the observed decadal co-variabilities. It is shown that anomalies of SAT will greatly affect the climatic co-variabilities,and changes of SAT may bring notable influence on the PDSI in China. These results provide observational evidence for increasing risks of decadal drought and wet-ness as anthropogenic global warming progresses.     

1961-2016年河南省极端气温事件变化特征

以1961-2016年河南省17个气象站逐日最高、最低和日平均气温数据为研究对象,运用Sen’s倾向估计、Mann-Kendall检验、R/S分析和空间分析等方法,分析了河南省16个极端气温指数(冷指数和暖指数)的变化特征.结果表明:过去的56年,河南省极端气温冷指数和暖指数均呈暖化趋势.其中,霜冻日数、冷夜日数、暖夜日数和生物生长季暖化趋势最显著.空间上,河南省各地极端气温冷指数和暖指数均呈暖化趋势.其中,郑州、开封、新乡、三门峡等地暖化趋势最显著.极端冷指数开始变暖、显著变暖和变暖突变时间均早于暖指数,且冷指数变暖幅度大于暖指数,说明冷指数对全球变暖更敏感.河南省极端气温冷指数和暖指数可持续性均较强,意味着河南省极端气温指数暖化趋势将持续.     

Evidence for deep-water production in the North Pacific Ocean during the early Cenozoic warm interval

The deep-ocean circulation is responsible for a significant component of global heat transport. In the present mode of circulation, deep waters form in the North Atlantic and Southern oceans where surface water becomes sufficiently cold and dense to sink. Polar temperatures during the warmest climatic interval of the Cenozoic era (approximately 65 to 40 million years (Myr) ago) were significantly warmer than today, and this may have been a consequence of enhanced oceanic heat transport. However, understanding the relationship between deep-ocean circulation and ancient climate is complicated by differences in oceanic gateways, which affect where deep waters form and how they circulate. Here I report records of neodymium isotopes from two cores in the Pacific Ocean that indicate a shift in deep-water production from the Southern Ocean to the North Pacific approximately 65 Myr ago. The source of deep waters reverted back to the Southern Ocean 40 Myr ago. The relative timing of changes in the neodymium and oxygen isotope records indicates that changes in Cenozoic deep-water circulation patterns were the consequence, not the cause, of extreme Cenozoic warmth.     

The leading correlation of the winter Aleutian Low with surface air temperature during the subsequent summer over the Arctic and its possible mechanism

The variations of surface air temperature(SAT)over the Arctic are closely related to global climate change.Based on reanalysis datasets and a newly defined Aleutian Low intensity index,we found a good correlation between intensity of winter Aleutian Low and the SAT over the Arctic during the subsequent summer.Explanations were given using correlation analysis,composite analysis,and singular value decomposition methods.When intensity of winter Aleutian Low was weaker,sea surface temperature appeared higher in the North Pacific in the subsequent spring and summer,resulting in mean meridional circulation anomalies and 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies in spring and summer.Anomalous upward motion in mid-latitudes and downward motion in high latitudes(Ferrel cell weakening)transported the warmer air to the north from lower layer to the upper layer followed by increases in the SAT over the Arctic.Anomalous downward motion over about 75°N also caused consequent adiabatic warming and contributed to inhibit the heat transportation from surface to upper layer.Negative 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies existed in mid-latitudes and positive anomalies existed in high latitudes.The pattern(low-in-south and high-in-north)benefited from increasing the inflow volume flux of the Bering Strait,which also made the SAT over the Arctic increase.The results of this study reveal the process that the summer SAT over the Arctic was modulated by interannual variability of intensity of winter Aleutian Low.     

Spatial and temporal variations of light rain events over China and the mid-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere

Based on observed daily precipitation data, monthly gridded radiosonde upper air temperature and sea surface temperature data from the UK Met Office Hadley Centre, monthly surface air temperature from the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia and the NCEP/NCAR monthly reanalysis data, this study investigates the spatial and temporal variations of light rain events over China and the mid-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere during 1961-2010, and discusses the relationship between the change of light rain events and atmospheric stability, sea surface temperature and atmospheric circulation. The light rain events over East China display a decreasing trend of 3.0%/10 a in summer and winter half years. Over Northwest China, an increasing trend of 4.1%/10 a is found in winter half years, but there is no trend in summer half years. Using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, it is found that the first two principal components of light rain events over the mid-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere show long time scale variations in summer and winter half years. The first EOF modes (EOF1s) for summer and winter half years both depict a long-term increase in light rain events over North America and Southern Europe as well as Northwest China (except in summer half years), and a long-term decrease over most of the Eurasia (Central Europe, Eastern Europe, North Asia and East China). The second EOF mode (EOF2) for summer half year shows that light rain events increase over North America, Southern Europe and South China, but decrease over Eurasia north of 45°N from 1961 to early 1980s, while the trends reverse from late 1980s to 2010. The second EOF mode (EOF2) for winter half years indicates that light rain events increase over North America and South and North China, but decrease over Eurasia north of 40°N from 1961 to early 1980s, while the trends reverse from late 1980s to 2009. Correlation analysis and linear regression analysis suggest that EOF1s may be related to the change in atmospheric static stability associated with global warming, and EOF2s are possibly linked to the AMO.