Impact of ERP Investment on Company Performance: Evidence from Manufacturing Firms in China

Information Technology (IT) investments, especially Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) systems, are critical for the survival and development of companies. Therefore, understanding the impact of ERP investment is of great importance to managers and researchers. As a corporate performance indicator, Tobin’s Q has some inherent advantages compared to other accounting indicators, and it can better reflect the contribution of ERP investment to company performance. This study employs multiple regression models to examine the impact of ERP investment on Tobin’s Q. The sample consists of 126 manufacturing companies listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges from 1999 to 2007. Empirical results show that in the first three years after ERP implementation, there is no significant change in Tobin’s Q; however, in the fourth year, Tobin’s Q increases significantly. The results indicate that, as a strategic long-term investment accompanied by large-scale business process reengineering and organizational learning, ERP implementation has time-lagged effects; nonetheless, it eventually produces significant benefits.     

Correlations between North Atlantic Oscillation Index in winter and eastern China Flood/Drought Index in summer in the last 530 years

The time series of winter North Atlantic Oscillation Index （NAOI） in the period of 1429-1983 developed by Glueck and summer Flood/Drought Index （FDI） of eastern China in the period of 1470-1999 from I00 stations are used in this paper to study the potential impact of North Atlantic Oscillation on the climate in China. The analysis has explored some significant lag correlations between FDI and NAOI. The maximum positive correlation coefficients between NAOI and area-mean FDI in eastern and northern China lagging 2-3 years reach at 0.001 significance level, and while there are also negative correlation between NAOI and FDI in central and southern China at significance level of 0.05-0.01. The correlation between FDI and NAOI is time-dependent, i.e. the correlation coefficients between two indices vary from period to period. The highest correlation appeared in the period of 1636-1742, around the Little Ice Age, with the significant level of far above 0.001. The second significant period was from 1951 to 1999, at the level of 0.005-0.002. Both the power spectrum analysis and Morlet wavelet transformation have presented an interesting phenomenon： the area-mean FDIs in eastern and northern China share almost the same oscillation periods with NAOI in the inter-annual, decadal and centurial scales＇ oscillations, i.e. 4-5, about I0, 20-30, around 50 and 80-100 years, etc. The Mann-Kendall Rank Statistic test reveals the significant trend and decadal abrupt changes in the series of area-mean FDIs in eastern and northern China in the past 530 years, while the NAOI in the past 400 years, did not show such trend at the significance level, but presented more frequent changes than those of FDI in China. This difference is perhaps due to the fact that the amplitude of the extremes of reconstructed NAOI series is less than that from instrumental records.     

Recent climate changes recorded by sediment grain sizes and isotopes in Erhai Lake

By careful sampling and accurate analysis of recent sediments, the time series of sediment grain sizes and 6" 1B0, S 13C of carbonates in recent 700 years are successfully established, based on which the evolutionary history of the regional climate and environment in Erhai Lake is reconstructed. The results show that the climatic succession type in the region of Erhai Lake is warm-dry and cold-humid alternatively, and there exist 200 and 400 years of quasi-periodical changes in temperature and 100, 200 and 400 years of quasi-periodical changes in aridity/humidity regime. The two coldest periods in recent 700 years occurred in the 14th century and the duration of 1550—1800 AD. The latter period may be the imprint left of the Little Ice Age.     

Gradient Analysis of Urbanization Pattern Based on Class-level Landscape Metrics for Shanghai Region

The spatial pattern of urbanization in the Shanghai metropolitan area is quantified with GIS-based land use data set and gradient analysis of landscape metrics. A number of landscape metrics were computed along a 64 km long and 6 km wide west-east transect and another 66 km long and 6 km wide south-north transect. The results of transect analysis with class-level metrics showed that the spatial pattern of urbanization could be reliably quantified using landscape metrics with a gradient analysis approach, and the location of the urbanization center could be identified precisely and consistently with multiple indices of the landscape metrics used in this study. Different land use types exhibited distinctive, but not necessarily unique, spatial signatures that were dependent on specific landscape metrics. These results seemed to characterize the urban core of the Shanghai metropolitan area rather accurately and precisely: Agriculture patches were abundant and less fragmented; the urban land use types were extensive, having many small patches and highly fragmented.     

An integrative estimation model of summer rainfall-band patterns in China

Three variation indices are defined to objectively and quantitatively represent fluctuations of three rainfall-band patterns in summers in China for the period from 1951 to 2005, and the variation features of these indices are analyzed on both of interdecadal and interannual scales. A new method is proposed to establish an integrative estimation model based on the analysis of rainfall-band indices, and the model is applied to air, ocean factors to estimate their roles on variations of three rainfall-band patterns on different time-scales. The tests of estimation effects show that the fluctuations of three rainfall-band patterns are composed of variations on both significant inter-decadal and interannual scales, of which the interannual variation is mainly influenced by the Elnino/Lanina events, the East Asia monsoon and the ridge locations of subtropical high pressures in western pacific, while the interdecadal variation is mainly controlled by the Pacific decadal oscillation and interdecadal oscillations of the Arctic oscillation, ENSO, Nino3 sea surface temperature and summer monsoon. The estimated results from the integrative estimation model of rainfall-band patterns suggest that the way of estimation first according to each time scale of both the interdecadal and interannual scales, then estimating with an integration, which is proposed in this paper, has an obvious improvement on that without separation of time scales.     

An integrative estimation model of summer rainfall-band patterns in China

Three variation indices are defined to objectively and quantitatively represent fluctuations of three rainfall-band patterns in summers in China for the period from 1951 to 2005, and the variation features of these indices are analyzed on both of interdecadal and interannual scales. A new method is proposed to establish an integrative estimation model based on the analysis of rainfall-band indices, and the model is applied to air, ocean factors to estimate their roles on variations of three rainfall-band patterns on different time-scales. The tests of estimation effects show that the fluctuations of three rainfall-band patterns are composed of variations on both significant inter-decadal and interannual scales, of which the interannual variation is mainly influenced by the Elnino/Lanina events, the East Asia monsoon and the ridge locations of subtropical high pressures in western pacific, while the interdecadal variation is mainly controlled by the Pacific decadal oscillation and interdecadal oscillations of the Arctic oscillation, ENSO, Nino3 sea surface temperature and summer monsoon. The estimated results from the integrative estimation model of rainfall-band patterns suggest that the way of estimation first according to each time scale of both the interdecadal and interannual scales, then estimating with an integration, which is proposed in this paper, has an obvious improvement on that without separation of time scales.     

Vulnerability assessment of areas affected by Chinese cryospheric changes in future climate change scenarios

Using the definition of vulnerability provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,this paper assesses the vulnerability of areas affected by Chinese cryospheric changes from 2001 to 2020 and from 2001 to 2050 in A1 and B1scenarios.Seven indices are used in the vulnerability assessment:glacial area fraction,interannual variability of permafrost depth,interannual variability of surface snow area fraction,interannual variability of surface runoff,interannual variability of surface temperature,interannual variability of vegetation growth,and interannual variability of the human development index.Assessment results show that the overall vulnerability of the studied areas in China increases from east to west.The areas in the middle and eastern parts of China are less vulnerable compared with western parts and parts of the Tibetan Plateau.The highest vulnerability values are found from 1981 to 2000,and the least ones are found from 2001 to 2050.The vulnerable areas increase from the period of 1981 to 2000 to the period of 2001 to 2050,and the less vulnerable areas decrease.The highly vulnerable areas increase from the period of 1981 to 2000 to the period of 2001 to 2020 and then decrease from the period of 2001 to 2020 to the period of 2001 to 2050.This decrease in vulnerability is attributed to the decrease in exposure and sensitivity to Chinese cryospheric changes along with a concomitant increase in adaptation.     

Periodicity of sunspot activity in the modern solar cycles

Sunspot number, sunspot area and sunspot unit area are usually used to show sunspot activity. In this paper,periodicity of sunspot activity of modern solar cycles has been investigated through analyzing the monthly mean values of the three indices in the time interval of May 1874 to May 2004 by use of the wavelet transform. Their global power spectra and local power spectra are given while the statistical tests of these spectra are taken into account. The main results are (1) the local wavelet power spectrum of the sunspot number seems like that of the sunspot area, indicating that the periodicity of the both indices is similar. The local power spectrum of the sunspot unit area resembles the local power spectra of the previous two indices, but looks more complicated. (2) the possible periods in sunspot activity are about 10.6 (or 10.9 years for the sunspot unit area), 31,and 42 years, and the period of about 10.6 years is statistically significant in the considered time. For the periods of about 31 and 42 years, their power peaks are under the 95% confidence level line but over the mean red-noise spectral line, and for the other rest periods, their power peaks are even under the mean red-noise spectral line, which are statistically insignificant. (3) the local power of the three periods is higher in the late stage than in the early stage of the considered time. (4) the period characteristics of the three indices, shown in the global power spectra and the local power spectra, are similar but there is difference in detail.     

Knowledge Map Mining of Financial Data

The Knowledge Map (KM) concept, which was derived from the Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM), is used to describe and manage knowledge. KM provides insight into the interdependencies and uncertainties contained in the system. This paper uses a model-free method to mine KMs in historical data to analyze component stock corporations of the Shanghai Stock 50 index. The analyses use static and time-domain analyses. The results indicate that a knowledge map is useful for representing knowledge and for monitoring the health of companies. Furthermore, sudden changes of the key features of the KMs should be taken seriously by policymakers as an alarm of a crisis.     

Genetic diversity in Penaeus chinensis shrimp as revealed by RAPD technique

The random amplified polymorphic DNA analysis was used to estimate genetic diversity in one successively cultivated stock and three wild stocks of Penaeus chinensis shrimp, two of which were collected from the spawning and wintering grounds in the west coast of Korean Peninsula, and one from the feeding ground in the China coast of the Yellow Sea. A random primer kit was employed to scan the genomic DNA in 20 individuals of each index stock. A total of 110 reproducible RAPD markers were obtained, 68.2 % of which showed a sound eonformability within all the individuals detected, implying that the genetic variability in P. chinensis is relatively low. The proportions of polymorphic loci among these four stocks ranged from 20% to 33.3%, while the degrees of genetic polymorphisms varied from 0.0093 to 0.0307. The genetic variability of inter-stocks was higher than that of intra-stock. The genetic diversity in different stocks differed from each other; that is, a less genetic differentiation in the spawning and wintering stocks from the west coast of Korean Peninsula was revealed and their genetic diversities were higher than that of the spawning stock in the Bohai Sea and the China coast of the Yellow Sea. As detected, the genetic diversity in the successively cultivated stock was the lowest among these four stocks. Through genetic distance analysis between a random pair of individuals, a dendrogram of the above-mentioned four stocks was constructed by unweighted pair group method with arithmetic mean. The results based on cluster analysis well fitted with the geographical distribution of P. chinensis in the Bohai and Yellow Seas.     

基于小波分析的中国A,B股市场相关性研究

考虑市场波动的时变性,采用小波分析的方法研究中国沪、深两市A,B股市场的相关性,利用小波函数的多尺度变化与不同持有期相对应,将中国沪、深两市A,B股市场之间的相关系数进行了多尺度分解.结果表明:B股股价的波动性明显大于A股股价,随着时间尺度的增加,小波方差和股价波动性逐渐减小;构成中国A股市场的沪市与深市、B股市场的沪市与深市的相关一致性要比A,B股市场间的相关一致性高;利用小波分析方法可以对不同市场的相关时变性进行研究,并可从相关的角度研究两个市场的分割性.     

安徽上市公司综合业绩实证分析

上市公司综合业绩评价体系可从盈利能力、偿债能力、成长能力、营运能力等四个方面进行构建。采用因子分析法,运用SPSS17统计软件,对2010年沪深股市50家安徽上市公司的相应财务指标进行数理统计分析,可以较客观地反映它们的综合业绩。     

我国高科技概念股市场定价的实证分析

本文基于沪深两市 1 997、1 998两年的数据 ,对以电子信息行业和生物制药行业为代表的高科技概念股的股价行为进行了回归分析 ,建立了一个高科技概念股市盈率估价模型 .模型表明我国高科技概念股的市盈率仅仅与它的总风险相关 ,而与系统风险无关 .这与经典资本资产定价模型相冲突 ,对资本资产定价模型的进一步回归检验表明 ,证券资产平均收益率也仅与总风险相关 .对上述结果的可能解释是 :我国证券市场不符合资本资产定价模型的市场有效性假设 .     

应用变点模型来研究沪深股股市波动性突变行为

股票价格的每日变化呈现随机漫步的特征，其一定程度的波动反映了股票变化的内在规律，但未能预期的股价的突然变化对投资者及社会经济却产生着巨大的影响，如股价突然大幅下跌会令投资者损失惨重。笔者提出一种方差变点模型(波动性突变点模型)，并用该模型分析从1992年到2002年上证和深证综合指数的方差变点，应用二分分段法结合西沃兹信息标准(Chen和Gupta1997)，找出股指收益率序列中的所有方差(波动性)突变点，对这些变点的经济意义进行解释。     

权证和其标的资产波动率的相关性分析

利用Black-Scholes期权定价的方法,给出了沪深两地上市初期权证及其标的股票的收益率和波动率,并对波动率数据进行回归分析;数值分析结果表明：多数权证的波动率和其标的资产的波动率没有线性相关性,数据经Box-Cox变换后分析,结论成立;这表明在权证上市初期,多数权证的波动率和标的资产波动率没有线性相关性,权证价格涨跌幅度大,严重偏离其市场价格;投资权证更多的是利用了其投机功能,其套期保值和风险管理功能被忽略.     

基于SV模型的沪深股市风险分析

利用SV-N模型、SV-t模型和SV-GED模型对深证综指和上证指数数据进行仿真分析,用预测参数估计得到的波动率计算var值并与相应实际指数收益率进行比较.研究结果表明,上证指数和深证综指都表现出强的波动持续性,且深证股市的波动水平比上海股市要大,风险也要高.并且,基于GED分布的SV模型能更好的反映沪深股市风险.     

股票市场内幕信息操纵的实证研究

以截止到2006年底沪深股市发生过的内幕信息操纵的股票为黑色样本,对其市场反应特征进行了分析;并引入了对应的基准样本(白色样本),建立了验证组样本、考察了Logistic模型对识别内幕信息操纵的适用性,确定了Logistic模型在以共线性较强的市场反应指标作为自变量的判别模型中的优越性。     

中国制造业企业社会责任履行与绿色发展——基于绿色创新的视角

以2010—2020年沪深A股制造业上市公司为样本，探讨企业社会责任履行对绿色创新的影响及其作用机制。结果表明，企业社会责任的履行能够显著促进绿色创新水平的提升，有利于企业绿色发展，并且融资约束能够在两者关系中发挥中介作用。进一步分析发现，与国有企业相比，社会责任履行对绿色创新水平的促进作用在非国有企业中更为显著。研究揭示了企业社会责任履行对绿色创新的影响机制，不仅能够为企业实现可持续发展、促进绿色发展提供实证证据，也可以为监管部门提供新的监管方向。     

利用财务指标预测股票价格及财务风险预警

主要研究上市公司的财务指标和股票价格的关系及如何利用这些指标对财务风险进行预警。首先运 用回归模型对上证180家上市公司财务指标与个股股价进行实证分析,并对样本股票价格进行预测。然后 选择100家ST股票和深沪两市绩优股为样本,再次利用回归模型将对股价有显著影响的财务指标与样本 股出现财务风险的概率进行分析,对样本股财务风险进行预测,并说明此研究的实际应用价值。     

方差分析在检验股票价格周期中的应用

应用方差分析方法，借助股票周期分析程序，对深沪两市所有股票的价格时间序列进行分析，找出了某些股票的价格变化周期．实例计算和分析表明，用方差分析方法寻找股票价格周期是有效的，能够为股票投资决策提供帮助．