基于脆性熵的城市生命线灾损敏感性评估

为了对城市生命线在灾害作用下的高度敏感性和耦合放大性进行全面的评估,引入脆性熵理论对城市生命线的灾损敏感性进行研究。在界定承灾体脆弱性和灾损敏感性概念的基础上,构建城市生命线灾损敏感性评价指标体系。在综合考虑网络节点的结构重要性和功能重要性的基础上,用网络的实际均衡熵与系统最大熵的比值建立单功能网络结构灾损敏感性指数的计算模型。从影响机理入手,对各生命线子系统之间不同作用类型进行划分,并构造相应的布尔型矩阵,利用脆性熵理论分析各生命线子系统之间的脆性关联程度,得到生命线系统整体网络结构的灾损敏感性计算模型。从质量灾损敏感性和网络结构灾损敏感性2个方面建立城市生命线的灾损敏感性评估模型。研究结果表明:各子系统之间的脆性关联会使得城市生命线的灾损敏感性增加;在受到灾害破坏时,通讯系统与其他子系统的脆性关联最大,在灾后应该抢先修复。     

硫化矿石自燃灾害的脆性风险源

为了对硫化矿石自燃灾害进行客观、有效地分析,找出引发矿石自燃的致灾因子及其相互影响关系,引入脆性理论研究硫化矿石自燃灾害.根据硫化矿石自燃分别与致灾系统和孕灾系统的脆性联系,建立矿石自燃灾害脆性关联分析模型,并依据自燃矿石的物理化学特性、矿井地下开采的特点,提出相应的脆性因子.最后以某高硫矿为例,计算硫化矿石自燃灾害与其致灾系统、孕灾系统间的脆性联系熵值和波动熵.研究结果表明:硫化矿石自燃灾害与其致灾系统、孕灾系统间的脆性联系熵分别为-0.220 7±0.0811和-0.1301±0.218 7;波动熵分别为0.151 9和0.319 8.研究结果表明:该矿井下孕灾环境是构成矿石自燃承灾系统脆性的根本原因;选用合理的采矿方法、降低矿石损失率、减少堆积时间及改善通风条件等是控制矿山自燃灾害事故发生的关键.     

型号项目风险因子测度方法研究

从风险的基本概念出发,综合分析了型号项目的风险.根据专家对风险事件发生的可能性和危害严重性的主观判断,建立型号项目风险因子测度模型,利用层次分析及模糊综合评价等方法确定因子Pf和Cf.在得出项目分系统的风险值后,使用项目分解结构可以梯次测度风险因子,定量地反映出型号项目的风险大小.研究表明,基于风险程度分析,可实现型号项目方案的优化及科学决策.     

基于信息熵与因子分析的城市综合竞争力评价

为解决城市综合竞争力评价问题,依据科学性和可操作性等原则,构建了一个城市竞争力评价指标体系,将信息熵理论与因子分析方法相结合应用于城市综合竞争力评价,分别获得了城市竞争力的一级指标评价和综合指标评价.为进一步验证指标体系的可行性,从《江苏省统计年鉴2015》获得原始数据,对江苏省13个地级城市综合竞争力展开评价,并通过与传统的熵与因子分析模型分析结果进行对比,结果表明,改进的信息熵与因子分析法结合的模型对城市综合竞争力的评价是可靠的.     

地下工程岩爆灾害预测的属性综合评价模型

 针对地下工程岩爆灾害预测各种方法的局限性以及预报准确率低的现状,基于属性数学理论与方法,选取围岩最大切向应力与岩石单轴抗压强度之比、脆性系数和弹性能量指数作为岩爆灾害预测的主要评价指标,建立了岩爆灾害预测的属性综合评价模型,对岩爆的发生与否及其烈度进行了预测。应用属性数学理论,构造了各评价指标的属性测度函数,并利用相似数定义相似权的方法确定各指标的权重以计算综合属性测度,最后应用置信度准则进行属性识别,给出评价结果。以10 组典型地下工程为例,对该模型进行了验证,结果表明,该模型评价结果与实际情况有较好的一致性,验证了属性综合评价在岩爆灾害预测中的可行性和适用性,为地下工程岩爆灾害的预测提供了一种新途径。     

岩溶区燃气管道致灾概率分析： 基于易损性-灾害系统集成视角

为科学评估岩溶区燃气管道的致灾可能性,基于灾害系统理论从孕灾环境活跃性、灾害因子风险性、承灾体脆弱性多重维度全面分析致灾事件体系,结合贝叶斯网络的信念传播更新优势逐层推算致灾事件的危险概率;结合易损性与可靠度分析理论,立足于有限元模拟结果和聚乙烯管道特性构建数理模型,从灾害损伤强度和抵抗灾害能力两者的交互作用视角综合核算管道的易损概率,创新“事件危险性+管道易损性”的致灾概率研究范式并开展实例分析。研究结果表明：基于易损性-灾害系统集成视角开展致灾概率分析有利于立足系统性视角科学测度致灾事件的危险概率,同时准确评估管道抗外载能力对致灾过程的重要影响;ZJ岩溶区段燃气管道的致灾概率为0.9 692×10-3,属于不可接受等级,需根据成本与效益对岩溶发育程度、管道安全水平、灾害演化趋势等开展持续监测与科学评估。     

基于多属性决策的城市基础设施事故风险评价

考虑到城市基础设施系统复杂性,引入多属性决策的相关理论,在对数据进行规范化整理的基础上,构造成对比较矩阵,对城市基础设施事故风险进行评价,找出城市基础设施事故灾害的关键风险因子,以期为管理人员提供相应的决策支持.本文以城市基础设施中的城市供水系统突发事件为例,建立层次分析模型进行风险评价,评价结果表明,供水突发事件风险最大的是供水管网存在的风险,其次是输水系统存在的风险;而引起供水突发事件风险最大的因子是水质污染风险,潜在风险最小的因子是水源供应不足带来的风险.     

城市自然灾害风险分析新方法

从风险具有的不确定性和复杂性入手,将城市灾害综合风险看做是基于危险性和易损性的不确定系统.通过判断风险确定的和不确定的影响因素,基于集对分析思想.建立了城市灾害综合风险评价模型.利用客观的降维方法--投影寻踪确定了因素的权重,降低了风险分析问题的复杂性.重点研究了集对联系度中差异性系数的客观量化方法,将其偏向性和偏向程度加入风险不确定性的计算中,得到了风险闻值的范围,进而得出了风险不确定性的大小.利用该方法对某市做了动态风险分析评价和趋势预测,并得出该市处于中度风险的可能性为52%的结论.该方法解决了以往灾害风险分析中多需要历史灾害数据或大样本数据的问题,为更多的目标物风险分析提供了可行方法.     

基于改进熵权法的中原城市群城镇化水平综合评价

结合新时期城镇化的新内涵,中原城市群城镇化综合评价系统由人口、经济、土地、社会四个子系统构成,并据此设计城镇化水平的分指标与综合评价指标,利用改进的熵权法,从时间和城市两个方面对中原城市群的城镇化水平进行综合的测度和评价.分析认为,城镇化综合评价指标体系更能体现新时期城镇化的特征;中原城市群各城市的城镇化水平体系合理,但经济结构亟待调整;经济和社会指标是影响城镇化水平的重要因素,随着城镇化进程的推进,文化产业成为影响城镇化水平的重要因子.     

基于Bayes网络的暴雨情景构建和演化方法

暴雨灾害具有强度大、时间长、易引发次生衍生事件、应急处置难度大等特点.该文从全局的角度研究暴雨风险.针对暴雨过程复杂性和次生衍生特点,提出了一种突发事件情景构建模型,构建了暴雨情景演化全流程,进而应用Bayes网络方法,结合风险因子的概率,构建了暴雨灾害的Bayes网络模型.应用Bayes网络模型计算暴雨引发洪水的量化...     

Markedness and its Interpretation in Language Use

Language markedness is a common phenomenon in languages, and is reflected from hearing, vision and sense, i.e. the variation in the three aspects such as phonology, morphology and semantics. This paper focuses on the interpretation of markedness in language use following the three perspectives, i.e. pragmatic interpretation, psychological interpretation and cognitive interpretation, with an aim to define the function of markedness.     

Lower Paleozoic oil relationships within Williston Basin, Canada

The Williston Basin is a significant petroleum province, containing oil production zones that include the Middle Cambrian to Lower Ordovician, Upper Ordovician, Middle Devonian, Upper Devonian and Mississippian and within the Jurassic and Cretaceous. The oils of the Williston Basin exhibit a wide range of geochemical characteristics defined as "oil families", although the geochemical signature of the Cambrian Deadwood Formation and Lower Ordovician Winnipeg reservoired oils does not match any "oil family". Despite their close stratigraphic proximity, it is evident that the oils of the Lower Palaeozoic within the Williston Basin are distinct. This suggests the presence of a new "oil family" within the Williston Basin. Diagnostic geochemical signatures occur in the gasoline range chromatograms, within saturate fraction gas chromatograms and biomarker fingerprints. However, some of the established criteria and cross-plots that are currently used to segregate oils into distinct genetic families within the basin do not always meet with success, particularly when applied to the Lower Palaeozoic oils of the Deadwood and Winnipeg Formation.     

An Analysis of Catherine＇s Character——Wuthering Heights

Wuthering Heights, Emily Bronte＇s only novel, was published in December of 1847 under the pseudonym Ellis Bell. The book did not gain immediate success, but it is now thought one of the finest novels in the English language. Catherine is the key character of this masterpiece, because everybody and everything center on her though she had a short life. We can understand this masterpiece better if we know Catherine well.     

Features of Women's language

Language is a means of verbal communication. People use language to communicate with each other. In the society, no two speakers are exactly alike in the way of speaking. Some differences are due to age, gender, statue and personality. Above all, gender is one of the obvious reasons. The writer of this paper tries to describe the features of women＇s language from these perspectives： pronunciation, intonation, diction, subjects, grammar and discourse. From the discussion of the features of women＇s language, more attention should be paid to language use in social context. What＇s more, the linguistic phenomena in a speaking community can be understood more thoroughly.     

Characterization of Ordovician carbonate reservoirs, southeastern Saskatchewan, Canada

The discovery of the prolific Ordovician Red River reservoirs in 1995 in southeastern Saskatchewan was the catalyst for extensive exploration activity which resulted in the discovery of more than 15 new Red River pools. The best yields of Red River production to date have been from dolomite reservoirs. Understanding the processes of dolomitization is, therefore, crucial for the prediction of the connectivity, spatial distribution and heterogeneity of dolomite reservoirs.The Red River reservoirs in the Midale area consist of 3～4 thin dolomitized zones, with a total thickness of about 20 m, which occur at the top of the Yeoman Formation. Two types of replacement dolomite were recognized in the Red River reservoir: dolomitized burrow infills and dolomitized host matrix. The spatial distribution of dolomite suggests that burrowing organisms played an important role in facilitating the fluid flow in the backfilled sediments. This resulted in penecontemporaneous dolomitization of burrow infills by normal seawater. The dolomite in the host matrix is interpreted as having occurred at shallow burial by evaporitic seawater during precipitation of Lake Almar anhydrite that immediately overlies the Yeoman Formation. However, the low δ18O values of dolomited burrow infills (-5.9‰～ -7.8‰, PDB) and matrix dolomites (-6.6‰～ -8.1‰, avg. -7.4‰ PDB) compared to the estimated values for the late Ordovician marine dolomite could be attributed to modification and alteration of dolomite at higher temperatures during deeper burial, which could also be responsible for its 87Sr/86Sr ratios (0.7084～0.7088) that are higher than suggested for the late Ordovician seawaters (0.7078～0.7080). The trace amounts of saddle dolomite cement in the Red River carbonates are probably related to "cannibalization" of earlier replacement dolomite during the chemical compaction.     

Design and analysis of generic LBS application developing platform

Location based services is promising due to its novel working style and contents.A software platform is proposed to provide application programs of typical location based services and support new applications developing efficiently. The analysis shows that this scheme is easy implemented, low cost and adapt to all kinds of mobile nework system.     

橡胶颗粒沥青混合料低温抗裂性试验研究

以AC-13级配为基础,将橡胶颗粒代替部分集料掺入混合料中,以低温弯曲试验为评价方法对不同橡胶颗粒掺量下沥青混合料的低温抗裂性进行研究,并引入应变能密度值对混合料的低温抗裂性进行综合评价.试验结果表明:橡胶颗粒沥青混合料试件的破坏微应变均超过2 300,满足冬寒区的技术指标;无论是否掺加橡胶颗粒,随着温度的下降,沥青混合料破坏时的最大弯拉强度增大,弯拉应变降低,劲度模量增大;弯曲应变能密度在胶粒掺量为1%左右时具有较大的弯曲应变能密度值,此时橡胶颗粒沥青混合料具有较好的低温抗裂性.     

低渗透非均质砂岩油藏启动压力梯度研究

理论推导与室内实验相结合,建立了低渗透非均质砂岩油藏启动压力梯度确定方法。首先借助油藏流场与电场相似的原理,推导了非均质砂岩油藏启动压力梯度计算公式。其次基于稳定流实验方法,建立了非均质砂岩油藏启动压力梯度测试方法。结果表明:低渗透非均质砂岩油藏的启动压力梯度确定遵循两个等效原则。平面非均质油藏的启动压力梯度等于各级渗透率段的启动压力梯度关于长度的加权平均;纵向非均质油藏的启动压力梯度等于各渗透率层的启动压力梯度关于渗透率与渗流面积乘积的加权平均。研究成果可用于有效指导低渗透非均质砂岩油藏的合理井距确定,促进该类油藏的高效开发。     

Quantitative trait loci （QTLs） for quality traits related to protein and starch in wheat

Quality traits in wheat （Triticum aestirum L.） were studied by quantitative trait locus （QTL） analysis in a recombinant inbred line （RIL） population, a set of 131 lines derived from Chuan 35050 × Shannong 483 cross （ChSh）. Grains from RILs were assayed for 21 quality traits related to protein and starch. A total of 35 putative QTLs for 19 traits with a single QTL explaining 7.99-40.52% of phenotypic variations were detected on 10 chromosomes, 1D, 2A, 2D, 3B, 3D, 5A, 6A, 6B, 6D, and 7B. The additive effects of 30 QTLs were positive, contributed by Chuan 35050, the remaining 5 QTLs were negative with the additive effect contributed by Shannong 483. For protein traits, 15 QTLs were obtained and most of them were located on chromosomes 1 D, 3B and 6D, while 20 QTLs for starch traits were detected and most of them were located on chromosomes 3D, 6B and 7B. Only 7 QTLs for protein and starch traits were co-located in three regions on chromosomes 1D, 2A and 2D. These protein and starch trait QTLs showed a distinct distribution pattern in certain regions and chromosomes. Twenty-two QTLs were clustered in 6 regions of 5 chromosomes. Two QTL clusters for protein traits were located on chromosomes 1D and 3B, respectively, three clusters for starch traits on chromosomes 3D, 6B and 7B, and one cluster including protein and starch traits on chromosome 1D.     

On Tragic Consciousness In The Works By Ernest Hemingway

As an American modern novelist who were famous in the literary world, Hemingway was not a person who always followed the trend but a sharp observer. At the same time, he was a tragedy maestro, he paid great attention on existence, fate and end-result. The dramatis personae's tragedy of his works was an extreme limit by all means tragedy on the meaning of fearless challenge that failed. The beauty of tragedy was not produced on the destruction of life, but now this kind of value was in the impact activity. They performed for the reader about the tragedy on challenging for the limit and the death.