气候变化对中国农业的影响

 在全球气候变化背景下,中国的气温不断增高,近50年中国年平均地表气温增加了1.1℃,明显高于全球;降水变化趋势不明显,年代际波动较大,也存在明显的地区差别;极端天气气候事件不断增多。未来气候变化情景,预计中国北方增温幅度高于南方,青藏高原增温最明显,年降水量增加显著区域为华北、西北及东北地区,长江中下游沿岸及其以南地区有小幅度增加。气候变暖将使粮食作物水稻、玉米和小麦的生育期缩短,产量下降;有利于棉花生产,能提高北方棉花产量和品质;三熟区面积将扩大约22.4%,一熟区面积约缩小23.1%,作物种植结构和作物品种的布局将发生变化;主要农作物病虫害呈加重趋势;对温带和寒带的家畜生长是有利的,对热带和亚热带家畜和牧草生长不利;中国四大海区主要经济鱼种的产量和渔获量有不同程度的降低;气候变暖将使中国各类自然植被发生明显北移,土地荒漠化危害范围加大,土壤肥力下降,并增加农业灌溉的需水量,农业水资源供需矛盾加剧。中国农业应对气候变化包括减缓和适应两个方面,应减缓和适应并重。     

Human contribution to more-intense precipitation extremes

Extremes of weather and climate can have devastating effects on human society and the environment. Understanding past changes in the characteristics of such events, including recent increases in the intensity of heavy precipitation events over a large part of the Northern Hemisphere land area, is critical for reliable projections of future changes. Given that atmospheric water-holding capacity is expected to increase roughly exponentially with temperature--and that atmospheric water content is increasing in accord with this theoretical expectation--it has been suggested that human-influenced global warming may be partly responsible for increases in heavy precipitation. Because of the limited availability of daily observations, however, most previous studies have examined only the potential detectability of changes in extreme precipitation through model-model comparisons. Here we show that human-induced increases in greenhouse gases have contributed to the observed intensification of heavy precipitation events found over approximately two-thirds of data-covered parts of Northern Hemisphere land areas. These results are based on a comparison of observed and multi-model simulated changes in extreme precipitation over the latter half of the twentieth century analysed with an optimal fingerprinting technique. Changes in extreme precipitation projected by models, and thus the impacts of future changes in extreme precipitation, may be underestimated because models seem to underestimate the observed increase in heavy precipitation with warming.     

Optimizing the Irrigation Scheduling Strategy and the Water Use Efficiency in Steppe and Irrigated Crop Production Ecosystems in the Northwestern China

ＩｎｔｒｏｄｕｃｔｉｏｎＳｉｎｃｅｔｈｅｌａｔｅ 1970ｓａｌａｒｇｅｎｕｍｂｅｒｏｆｓｔｕｄｉｅｓｈａｖｅｃｏｎｓｉｄｅｒｅｄｉｒｒｉｇａｔｉｏｎｓｃｈｅｄｕｌｉｎｇｉｎｉｒｒｉｇａｔｉｏｎｍａｎａｇｅｍｅｎｔ[1- 7] ａｎｄｉｔｈａｓｂｅｅｎｓｈｏｗｎｔｈａｔｅｆｆｉｃｉｅｎｔａｎｄ ｐｒｏｆｉｔａｂｌｅｉｒｒｉｇａｔｉｏｎｓｃｈｅｄｕｌｉｎｇｓｔｒａｔｅｇｉｅｓａｒｅｎｅｅｄｅｄ ,ｐａｒｔｉｃｕｌａｒｌｙｗｈｅｒｅｗａｔｅｒａｖａｉｌａｂｌｅｆｏｒｉｒｒｉｇａｔｉｏｎｉｓｌｉｍｉｔｅｄ .Ｉｎｎｏ…     

作物非充分灌溉制度的模拟优化方法

非充分灌溉条件下作物灌溉制度优化可以有效地提高作物产量及水分利用率。以农田水量平衡模拟模型、作物水分生产函数和水分敏感指数累积函数为基础,建立了以灌溉日期为决策变量的非充分灌溉制度模拟优化模型,利用单纯形搜索法来确定最优灌溉制度(以作物产量最高为目标)。针对北京1999年冬小麦返青后的实际情况,利用以上方法对冬小麦灌溉制度进行了模拟与分析。结果表明,随着灌溉定额的增加,最优灌溉制度下的田间腾发量和冬小麦产量也相应增加,但其增加幅度却逐渐减小。在灌溉水量不足的条件下,应首先保证抽穗初期的灌溉,然后考虑在拔节期进行灌溉,可以达到较好的增产效果。     

The effect of water saving and production increment by drip irrigation schedules

Drip irrigation system can achieve high uniformity. When the system is designed for uniformity coefficient equal or more than 70%, the water application in the field can be expressed as a normal distribution and further simplified to a linear distribution. This paper will describe the irrigation scheduling parameters, percent of deficit, application efficiency and coefficient of variation by simple mathematical model. Using this effective model and the irrigation application, the total yield affected by the total water application for different uniformity of irrigation application can be determined. More over, this paper uses the cost of water, price of yield, uniformity of the drip irrigation system, crop response to water application and environmental concerns of pollution and contamination to determine the optimal irrigation schedule. A case study shows that the optimal irrigation schedule can achieve the effect of water saving and production increment compared with the conventional irrigation schedule in which the whole field is fully irrigated.     

Impact of regional climate change on human health

The World Health Organisation estimates that the warming and precipitation trends due to anthropogenic climate change of the past 30 years already claim over 150,000 lives annually. Many prevalent human diseases are linked to climate fluctuations, from cardiovascular mortality and respiratory illnesses due to heatwaves, to altered transmission of infectious diseases and malnutrition from crop failures. Uncertainty remains in attributing the expansion or resurgence of diseases to climate change, owing to lack of long-term, high-quality data sets as well as the large influence of socio-economic factors and changes in immunity and drug resistance. Here we review the growing evidence that climate-health relationships pose increasing health risks under future projections of climate change and that the warming trend over recent decades has already contributed to increased morbidity and mortality in many regions of the world. Potentially vulnerable regions include the temperate latitudes, which are projected to warm disproportionately, the regions around the Pacific and Indian oceans that are currently subjected to large rainfall variability due to the El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation sub-Saharan Africa and sprawling cities where the urban heat island effect could intensify extreme climatic events.     

CMIP6多模式在青藏高原的适应性评估及未来气候变化预估

随着CMIP6（coupled model intercomparison project phase 6）计划进行,新一代大气环流模式（general circulation model, GCM）输出结果陆续发布,及时探究在新模式新情景下青藏高原未来降水及气温的变化规律至关重要．在对CMIP6多模式进行适应性评估的基础上,运用DM（direct method）统计降尺度方法,以1979—2014年为基准期,预估青藏高原未来近期（2031—2050年）、远期（2061—2080年）在共享社会经济路径与典型浓度路径组合情景（shared socioeconomic pathways and the representative concentration pathways, SSP)包括低强迫情景(SSP126)、中等强迫情景（SSP245）、中等至高强迫情景（SSP370）、高强迫情景（SSP585）下的降水、平均气温、最低气温、最高气温的时空演变规律．结果表明:相较于基准期,不同GCM对青藏高原未来降水的预估总体呈现增加趋势,近期降水较基准期变幅为?3%~16%,远期变幅为?1%~21%．未来平均气温、最低气温和最高气温均呈现一致的增温趋势,且增幅较为一致．相较于基准期,近期气温变化范围为0.9~2.3 ℃,远期气温变化范围为1.01~4.6 ℃．随着排放强度的增加,三者升温趋势愈加显著,即升温趋势由强至弱排序为SSP585、SSP370、SSP245、SSP126．此外,青藏高原气温变化在海拔高度上具有显著的依赖性,整体表现为青藏高原北部高海拔地区增温高于青藏高原东南部低海拔地区．研究结果可为揭示气候变化对高寒区水循环的影响机制提供科学依据．      

Simulation of historical and projected climate change in arid and semiarid areas by CMIP5 models

Based on Climatic Research Unit Time Series3.1 temperature and Global Precipitation Climatology Center full data reanalysis version 6 precipitation data,the abilities of climate models from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project to simulate climate changes over arid and semiarid areas were assessed.Simulations of future climate changes under different representative concentration pathways(RCPs)were also examined.The key findings were that most of the models are able to capture the dominant features of the spatiotemporal changes in temperature,especially the geographic distribution,during the past 60 years,both globally as well as over arid and semiarid areas.In addition,the models can reproduce the observed warming trends,but with magnitudes generally less than the observations of around0.1–0.3°C/50a.Compared to temperature,the models perform worse in simulating the annual evolution of observed precipitation,underestimating both the variability and tendency,and there is a huge spread among the models in terms of their simulated precipitation results.The multimodel ensemble mean is overall superior to any individual model in reproducing the observed climate changes.In terms of future climate change,an ongoing warming projected by the multi-model ensemble over arid and semiarid areas can clearly be seen under different RCPs,especially under the high emissions scenario(RCP8.5),which is twice that of the moderate scenario(RCP4.5).Unlike the increasing temperature,precipitation changes vary across areas and are more significant under high-emission RCPs,with more precipitation over wet areas but less precipitation over dry areas.In particular,northern China is projected to be one of the typical areas experiencing significantly increased temperature and precipitation in the future.     

气候变暖对黄淮海平原冬小麦生长及产量影响的数值模拟

利用改进的荷兰Wageningen农业大学的产量生态学模式SUCROS，模拟了气候变暖引起的温度升高和降水量变化对黄淮海平原冬小麦生长发育及产量的影响。结果表明：黄淮海平原中、北部地区，由于自然降水远小于小麦生育期的生理需水量，无灌溉条件下小麦生长相当困难；黄淮海平原南部地区，气温升高加快了冬小麦的生长发育速率，缩短了生育历程，在无土壤水分亏缺的理想状态下，适度升温有利于冬小麦生长及产量的提高；但在土壤水分亏缺时，温度升高，虽改善了冬小麦越冬条件，使其叶面积指数增高，CO2同化能力增强，但高温加大了土壤蒸发，使小麦生长中、后期水分亏缺加重，小麦绿叶同化能力降低，最终使产量下降。当气候变暖伴随降水量增大时，这一现象有所缓解。若气候变暖伴随降水减少，则产量下降加剧。模拟显示，流行于该区的农田林网可有效地改善农田小气候，提高小麦的水分利用率和干物质生长量。在气候变暖的严峻形势下，组建农林复合生态系统应作为一种可持续发展的农业经营策略加以推广应用。     

未来气候变化情景下我国粮食供需平衡风险研究

“粮食供需平衡风险”定义为未来气候变化对我国粮食供需的影响程度。基于IPCC 排放情景特别报告(SRES)中B2情景气候条件下的我国粮食生产模拟结果, 构建该框架下我国粮食消费分析情景, 最终建立以自给粮食供应程度为核心的粮食供需平衡风险标准。借助GIS空间分析技术, 探讨县域尺度上近期、中期和远期的气候变化将会给我国粮食供需平衡带来怎样的风险局面。结果表明气候变化将会在一定程度上加剧我国的粮食供需平衡形势。3个时段内, 粮食供需风险局面严峻形势由高到低排序: 中期>远期>近期。具体地, 中期面临的供需风险的县市比例高达66.99%, 其中中风险和高风险区域范围最广, 两者所占比例高达29.5%; 近期风险形势相对较为缓和, 上述比例降低到25.54%, 其中高风险县市比例较低约为10.72%, 中风险约为14.82%; 在空间格局上, 黄淮海区、黄土高原区、西南区以及青藏区的东缘面临的风险形势相对较为严峻, 东北区、甘新区以及内蒙及长城沿线区则相对较为良好。     

Detection of a direct carbon dioxide effect in continental river runoff records

Continental runoff has increased through the twentieth century despite more intensive human water consumption. Possible reasons for the increase include: climate change and variability, deforestation, solar dimming, and direct atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) effects on plant transpiration. All of these mechanisms have the potential to affect precipitation and/or evaporation and thereby modify runoff. Here we use a mechanistic land-surface model and optimal fingerprinting statistical techniques to attribute observational runoff changes into contributions due to these factors. The model successfully captures the climate-driven inter-annual runoff variability, but twentieth-century climate alone is insufficient to explain the runoff trends. Instead we find that the trends are consistent with a suppression of plant transpiration due to CO2-induced stomatal closure. This result will affect projections of freshwater availability, and also represents the detection of a direct CO2 effect on the functioning of the terrestrial biosphere.     

基于WOFOST与CROPWAT模型的松嫩平原春玉米灌溉制度研究

从挖掘作物生产潜力和生育期优化配水的角度,运用WOFOST模型模拟典型年松嫩平原的5个典型站点春玉米的潜在产量和雨养产量,并应用FAO推荐的CROPWAT模型进行春玉米灌溉水量优化分析。研究表明:松嫩平原在枯水年、平水年、丰水年的潜在产量分别为5.94~10.18、7.20~10.57、7.43~11.59 t?hm?2;富裕和泰来在不同水平年的生产潜力分别为3~5、2~4 t?hm?2,长岭在平水年的生产潜力为3.85 t?hm?2。灌溉制度方面,春玉米在枯水年、平水年和丰水年的作物需水量为480~560 mm,灌溉总需水量分别为216.7~300.2、215.2~272.9、102.9~234.9 mm;快速生长期和生长中期是春玉米灌溉的关键期;作物需水量在不同生育阶段的灌溉需水量大小排序为生长中期、快速生长期、成熟期、初始生长阶段。      

邛海水域变化对西昌气候的影响

湖泊气候是因湖泊(包括水库)水体的存在而造成异于周边地区的一种局地性气候。湖泊对周边气候的调节作用巨大,可改变周边环境的气温和降水量等。湖泊的水域面积和水深在调节气候中起到重要作用,保护湖泊水域面积和水深与保护其生态环境同等重要。     

2016年作物科学热点回眸

 作物科学是农业科学的核心科学之一,在保障国家粮食安全和农产品有效供给、提高农业效益、发展现代农业等方面居重要地位。为了解作物领域发展的前沿和热点、展示作物科学研究中取得的杰出成就,本文简述2016年水稻、玉米、小麦、大豆、棉花、油菜等作物在品种改良、基因克隆、基因组编辑技术等领域取得的部分重要进展,并分析作物科学今后的发展重点和趋势。     

地面灌水技术的改进

改进地面灌水技术，是灌区提高灌水质量、实行定额用水的关键问题。改进灌水技术，实行定额用水，可显著提高灌溉效益。小畦灌与沟灌、沟灌与隔沟灌都具有增产节水作用，应选择合理的畦灌与沟灌技术要素，制定合理的灌水技术方案。     

徐州地区小麦有效潜水蒸发规律浅析

农作物生长所需要的水源主要为生长期的降水,由地下水补给的潜水蒸发和人工灌水,在潜水埋深较小的地区,潜水蒸发对农作物的影响很大。本文利用汉王水资源试验站的资料,通过对小麦在不同潜水埋深,不同生长季节情况下的潜水蒸发和有效降水灌溉量的分析,得出了小麦在不同时期的需水量、潜水蒸发量以及全生长期的有效潜水蒸发系数,从而可以有目的地确定灌溉时期和水量,充分利用地下水,节约地表水资源。     

集雨微灌对春小麦产量灌浆和水分利用效率的影响

为探讨集雨微灌对春小麦产量、灌浆及水分利用效率的影响，于2001年在黄土高原西北部进行了灌水方式(管灌、滴灌和微喷灌3个水平)和灌水量(0，22．5，45．0，67．5mm4个水平)二因素试验，分别在拔节期、孕穗期和开花前期灌水，结果表明：尽管灌水方式间的差异不显著，但从产量表现来看，其大小顺序依次是微喷灌、滴灌、管灌和对照；灌水量和互作间的差异达极显著水平；灌水有增加穗数，降低穗粒数和干粒重的趋势；随灌水量的增加，千粒重对产量的贡献减小，而穗数对产量的贡献增加，穗粒数对产量的贡献表现在这一过程中，补灌能增加小麦的最大灌浆速率．作物田间耗水量和水分利用效率随补灌量的增加而增加；以微喷灌67．5mm的水分利用效率最高；供水效率以微喷灌45．0，67．5mm处理为高。     

浙江省主要农作物虚拟水含量的初步研究

利用前人所得的各类农作物虚拟水含量标准,计算了1997—2002年浙江省各地市主要农作物的虚拟水含量和不同类型农作物的虚拟水含量、初步研究结果表明,浙江省农作物虚拟水含量有自东北向西南减少的趋势,与人均水资源空间变化趋势相反,作物耗水与水资源空间分布之间很不协调．调整各地农作物种植结构,并在区域内外加强农作物虚拟水贸易,有利于减轻部分地区的水资源压力．在舟山、嘉兴、宁波和绍兴等人均水资源缺乏区,可适当增加豌豆、番薯、柑橘、黄瓜、玉米、西红柿和西瓜等单位虚拟水含量小的农作物的种植面积;在杭州、衢州、丽水等地区可适当增加粮食、油菜籽和棉花的种植面积,相应减少柑橘、西瓜等水果的种植面积、金华和温州的山地选择种植大豆、花生、柑橘、大麦、棉花等,平原地带则种植水稻等农作物是较为合适的、综上可见,调整农作物种植结构可以有效地提高水安全水平。     

基于SWIM模型模拟气候变化对青海湖布哈河流域水文过程的影响

本文基于青藏高原地区气候变化的预估结果,利用SWIM 模型模拟了该地区最具有代表性的布哈河流域在未来3个时期(2016-2035年、2046-2065年和2081-2100年)径流深、实际蒸散量和深层渗漏量的变化及其时空格局.结果表明:1)模型对布哈河流域径流的模拟结果较为理想,表明SWIM 模型在高寒地区有较强的适用性;2)随着降水的增加和气温的持续上升,流域的径流深和实际蒸散量在2100年前会持续增加,而深层渗漏量则先下降后上升;3)气候变化对流域水文过程的影响有季节差异性,其对深层渗漏量的影响集中于7、8月,而对径流深和实际蒸散量的影响主要在6-8月期间;4)流域各水文过程及其在不同时期的变化呈现一定的空间差异性.      

农作物有效潜水蒸发试验研究

在潜水埋深较小的地区,潜水蒸发对农作物的影响很大．本文通过对小麦在不同潜水埋深、不同生长季节情况下的潜水蒸发和有效降水灌溉量的分析,得出了小麦在不同时期的需水量、潜水蒸发量以及全生长期的有效潜水蒸发系数,从而可以有目的地确定灌溉时间和水量,充分利用地下水,节约地表水资源．