Projected increase in continental runoff due to plant responses to increasing carbon dioxide

In addition to influencing climatic conditions directly through radiative forcing, increasing carbon dioxide concentration influences the climate system through its effects on plant physiology. Plant stomata generally open less widely under increased carbon dioxide concentration, which reduces transpiration and thus leaves more water at the land surface. This driver of change in the climate system, which we term 'physiological forcing', has been detected in observational records of increasing average continental runoff over the twentieth century. Here we use an ensemble of experiments with a global climate model that includes a vegetation component to assess the contribution of physiological forcing to future changes in continental runoff, in the context of uncertainties in future precipitation. We find that the physiological effect of doubled carbon dioxide concentrations on plant transpiration increases simulated global mean runoff by 6 per cent relative to pre-industrial levels; an increase that is comparable to that simulated in response to radiatively forced climate change (11 +/- 6 per cent). Assessments of the effect of increasing carbon dioxide concentrations on the hydrological cycle that only consider radiative forcing will therefore tend to underestimate future increases in runoff and overestimate decreases. This suggests that freshwater resources may be less limited than previously assumed under scenarios of future global warming, although there is still an increased risk of drought. Moreover, our results highlight that the practice of assessing the climate-forcing potential of all greenhouse gases in terms of their radiative forcing potential relative to carbon dioxide does not accurately reflect the relative effects of different greenhouse gases on freshwater resources.     

Weakening of tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation due to anthropogenic forcing

Since the mid-nineteenth century the Earth's surface has warmed, and models indicate that human activities have caused part of the warming by altering the radiative balance of the atmosphere. Simple theories suggest that global warming will reduce the strength of the mean tropical atmospheric circulation. An important aspect of this tropical circulation is a large-scale zonal (east-west) overturning of air across the equatorial Pacific Ocean--driven by convection to the west and subsidence to the east--known as the Walker circulation. Here we explore changes in tropical Pacific circulation since the mid-nineteenth century using observations and a suite of global climate model experiments. Observed Indo-Pacific sea level pressure reveals a weakening of the Walker circulation. The size of this trend is consistent with theoretical predictions, is accurately reproduced by climate model simulations and, within the climate models, is largely due to anthropogenic forcing. The climate model indicates that the weakened surface winds have altered the thermal structure and circulation of the tropical Pacific Ocean. These results support model projections of further weakening of tropical atmospheric circulation during the twenty-first century.     

用一维辐射传递方程计算二氧化碳的辐射强迫

为得到二氧化碳浓度变化影响下的辐射强迫值,建立了简化的大气层净辐射通量模型.基于辐射传递方程,这个模型可以计算二氧化碳浓度变化引起的大气层每一层净辐射通量以及辐射强迫值.与美国大气与环境研究中心（AER）的RRTM-LW长波辐射传输模型在同一因素下的计算结果进行比较,得到误差不超过1%.     

Reduction of soil carbon formation by tropospheric ozone under increased carbon dioxide levels

In the Northern Hemisphere, ozone levels in the troposphere have increased by 35 per cent over the past century, with detrimental impacts on forest and agricultural productivity, even when forest productivity has been stimulated by increased carbon dioxide levels. In addition to reducing productivity, increased tropospheric ozone levels could alter terrestrial carbon cycling by lowering the quantity and quality of carbon inputs to soils. However, the influence of elevated ozone levels on soil carbon formation and decomposition are unknown. Here we examine the effects of elevated ozone levels on the formation rates of total and decay-resistant acid-insoluble soil carbon under conditions of elevated carbon dioxide levels in experimental aspen (Populus tremuloides) stands and mixed aspen-birch (Betula papyrifera) stands. With ambient concentrations of ozone and carbon dioxide both raised by 50 per cent, we find that the formation rates of total and acid-insoluble soil carbon are reduced by 50 per cent relative to the amounts entering the soil when the forests were exposed to increased carbon dioxide alone. Our results suggest that, in a world with elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, global-scale reductions in plant productivity due to elevated ozone levels will also lower soil carbon formation rates significantly.     

Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model

The continued increase in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide due to anthropogenic emissions is predicted to lead to significant changes in climate. About half of the current emissions are being absorbed by the ocean and by land ecosystems, but this absorption is sensitive to climate as well as to atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, creating a feedback loop. General circulation models have generally excluded the feedback between climate and the biosphere, using static vegetation distributions and CO2 concentrations from simple carbon-cycle models that do not include climate change. Here we present results from a fully coupled, three-dimensional carbon-climate model, indicating that carbon-cycle feedbacks could significantly accelerate climate change over the twenty-first century. We find that under a 'business as usual' scenario, the terrestrial biosphere acts as an overall carbon sink until about 2050, but turns into a source thereafter. By 2100, the ocean uptake rate of 5 Gt C yr(-1) is balanced by the terrestrial carbon source, and atmospheric CO2 concentrations are 250 p.p.m.v. higher in our fully coupled simulation than in uncoupled carbon models, resulting in a global-mean warming of 5.5 K, as compared to 4 K without the carbon-cycle feedback.     

Global estimate of aerosol direct radiative forcing from satellite measurements

Atmospheric aerosols cause scattering and absorption of incoming solar radiation. Additional anthropogenic aerosols released into the atmosphere thus exert a direct radiative forcing on the climate system. The degree of present-day aerosol forcing is estimated from global models that incorporate a representation of the aerosol cycles. Although the models are compared and validated against observations, these estimates remain uncertain. Previous satellite measurements of the direct effect of aerosols contained limited information about aerosol type, and were confined to oceans only. Here we use state-of-the-art satellite-based measurements of aerosols and surface wind speed to estimate the clear-sky direct radiative forcing for 2002, incorporating measurements over land and ocean. We use a Monte Carlo approach to account for uncertainties in aerosol measurements and in the algorithm used. Probability density functions obtained for the direct radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere give a clear-sky, global, annual average of -1.9 W m(-2) with standard deviation, +/- 0.3 W m(-2). These results suggest that present-day direct radiative forcing is stronger than present model estimates, implying future atmospheric warming greater than is presently predicted, as aerosol emissions continue to decline.     

温室气体变化数值模拟试验中全球降水和温度变化的迟滞效应

利用耦合气候模式(GFDL-CM2.1)研究变动气候背景下全球平均降水和温度的变化。不同情景CO2 强迫试验表明, 降水变化存在明显的迟滞效应。全球平均降水与地表温度的变化存在显著的线性关系, 但是降水同时也受到CO2 浓度的直接影响。在CO2 增加又恢复的试验中, 降水变化滞后于地表温度变化, 出现降水 “迟滞效应”。在CO2 增加过程中, 温室效应增强会立即导致大气长波吸收增强, 大气获得的净辐射能量增加, 为维持大气能量收支平衡, 地面向上潜热通量受到抑制, 形成CO2 增加对降水的抑制效应。随之而来的温度上升则主要引起大气层顶出射长波辐射以及大气对地表的长波回辐射增加, 大气净辐射能量减少, 地面潜热通量增加, 从而引起降水的增加。在CO2 减少过程中, 情况正好相反, 温室效应减弱会增加降水, 而温度降低会减少降水。温度和CO2 对降水的不同影响决定了降水的迟滞效应。     

Increased soil emissions of potent greenhouse gases under increased atmospheric CO2

Increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO(2)) can affect biotic and abiotic conditions in soil, such as microbial activity and water content. In turn, these changes might be expected to alter the production and consumption of the important greenhouse gases nitrous oxide (N(2)O) and methane (CH(4)) (refs 2, 3). However, studies on fluxes of N(2)O and CH(4) from soil under increased atmospheric CO(2) have not been quantitatively synthesized. Here we show, using meta-analysis, that increased CO(2) (ranging from 463 to 780 parts per million by volume) stimulates both N(2)O emissions from upland soils and CH(4) emissions from rice paddies and natural wetlands. Because enhanced greenhouse-gas emissions add to the radiative forcing of terrestrial ecosystems, these emissions are expected to negate at least 16.6 per cent of the climate change mitigation potential previously predicted from an increase in the terrestrial carbon sink under increased atmospheric CO(2) concentrations. Our results therefore suggest that the capacity of land ecosystems to slow climate warming has been overestimated.     

Recent patterns and mechanisms of carbon exchange by terrestrial ecosystems.

Knowledge of carbon exchange between the atmosphere, land and the oceans is important, given that the terrestrial and marine environments are currently absorbing about half of the carbon dioxide that is emitted by fossil-fuel combustion. This carbon uptake is therefore limiting the extent of atmospheric and climatic change, but its long-term nature remains uncertain. Here we provide an overview of the current state of knowledge of global and regional patterns of carbon exchange by terrestrial ecosystems. Atmospheric carbon dioxide and oxygen data confirm that the terrestrial biosphere was largely neutral with respect to net carbon exchange during the 1980s, but became a net carbon sink in the 1990s. This recent sink can be largely attributed to northern extratropical areas, and is roughly split between North America and Eurasia. Tropical land areas, however, were approximately in balance with respect to carbon exchange, implying a carbon sink that offset emissions due to tropical deforestation. The evolution of the terrestrial carbon sink is largely the result of changes in land use over time, such as regrowth on abandoned agricultural land and fire prevention, in addition to responses to environmental changes, such as longer growing seasons, and fertilization by carbon dioxide and nitrogen. Nevertheless, there remain considerable uncertainties as to the magnitude of the sink in different regions and the contribution of different processes.     

黑碳气溶胶研究新进展

黑碳气溶胶是气溶胶的重要组成部分,在大气物理、大气化学、大气光学、大气光化学等过程中具有重要作用。近年来研究表明,黑碳气溶胶对于全球变暖、区域气候变化有重要贡献,黑碳气溶胶可能是影响全球变暖的第二大重要因子,其作用仅次于CO2。因此,应控制黑碳的排放。考虑到黑碳气溶胶在全球变暖、区域气候、环境与健康等方面的作用,研究和评价黑碳气溶胶的作用已十分必要和迫切。     

SLAC1 is required for plant guard cell S-type anion channel function in stomatal signalling

Stomatal pores, formed by two surrounding guard cells in the epidermis of plant leaves, allow influx of atmospheric carbon dioxide in exchange for transpirational water loss. Stomata also restrict the entry of ozone--an important air pollutant that has an increasingly negative impact on crop yields, and thus global carbon fixation and climate change. The aperture of stomatal pores is regulated by the transport of osmotically active ions and metabolites across guard cell membranes. Despite the vital role of guard cells in controlling plant water loss, ozone sensitivity and CO2 supply, the genes encoding some of the main regulators of stomatal movements remain unknown. It has been proposed that guard cell anion channels function as important regulators of stomatal closure and are essential in mediating stomatal responses to physiological and stress stimuli. However, the genes encoding membrane proteins that mediate guard cell anion efflux have not yet been identified. Here we report the mapping and characterization of an ozone-sensitive Arabidopsis thaliana mutant, slac1. We show that SLAC1 (SLOW ANION CHANNEL-ASSOCIATED 1) is preferentially expressed in guard cells and encodes a distant homologue of fungal and bacterial dicarboxylate/malic acid transport proteins. The plasma membrane protein SLAC1 is essential for stomatal closure in response to CO2, abscisic acid, ozone, light/dark transitions, humidity change, calcium ions, hydrogen peroxide and nitric oxide. Mutations in SLAC1 impair slow (S-type) anion channel currents that are activated by cytosolic Ca2+ and abscisic acid, but do not affect rapid (R-type) anion channel currents or Ca2+ channel function. A low homology of SLAC1 to bacterial and fungal organic acid transport proteins, and the permeability of S-type anion channels to malate suggest a vital role for SLAC1 in the function of S-type anion channels.     

Strong radiative heating due to the mixing state of black carbon in atmospheric aerosols

Aerosols affect the Earth's temperature and climate by altering the radiative properties of the atmosphere. A large positive component of this radiative forcing from aerosols is due to black carbon--soot--that is released from the burning of fossil fuel and biomass, and, to a lesser extent, natural fires, but the exact forcing is affected by how black carbon is mixed with other aerosol constituents. From studies of aerosol radiative forcing, it is known that black carbon can exist in one of several possible mixing states; distinct from other aerosol particles (externally mixed) or incorporated within them (internally mixed), or a black-carbon core could be surrounded by a well mixed shell. But so far it has been assumed that aerosols exist predominantly as an external mixture. Here I simulate the evolution of the chemical composition of aerosols, finding that the mixing state and direct forcing of the black-carbon component approach those of an internal mixture, largely due to coagulation and growth of aerosol particles. This finding implies a higher positive forcing from black carbon than previously thought, suggesting that the warming effect from black carbon may nearly balance the net cooling effect of other anthropogenic aerosol constituents. The magnitude of the direct radiative forcing from black carbon itself exceeds that due to CH4, suggesting that black carbon may be the second most important component of global warming after CO2 in terms of direct forcing.     

Increasing risk of Amazonian drought due to decreasing aerosol pollution

The Amazon rainforest plays a crucial role in the climate system, helping to drive atmospheric circulations in the tropics by absorbing energy and recycling about half of the rainfall that falls on it. This region (Amazonia) is also estimated to contain about one-tenth of the total carbon stored in land ecosystems, and to account for one-tenth of global, net primary productivity. The resilience of the forest to the combined pressures of deforestation and global warming is therefore of great concern, especially as some general circulation models (GCMs) predict a severe drying of Amazonia in the twenty-first century. Here we analyse these climate projections with reference to the 2005 drought in western Amazonia, which was associated with unusually warm North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs). We show that reduction of dry-season (July-October) rainfall in western Amazonia correlates well with an index of the north-south SST gradient across the equatorial Atlantic (the 'Atlantic N-S gradient'). Our climate model is unusual among current GCMs in that it is able to reproduce this relationship and also the observed twentieth-century multidecadal variability in the Atlantic N-S gradient, provided that the effects of aerosols are included in the model. Simulations for the twenty-first century using the same model show a strong tendency for the SST conditions associated with the 2005 drought to become much more common, owing to continuing reductions in reflective aerosol pollution in the Northern Hemisphere.     

Offset of the potential carbon sink from boreal forestation by decreases in surface albedo

Carbon uptake by forestation is one method proposed to reduce net carbon dioxide emissions to the atmosphere and so limit the radiative forcing of climate change. But the overall impact of forestation on climate will also depend on other effects associated with the creation of new forests. In particular, the albedo of a forested landscape is generally lower than that of cultivated land, especially when snow is lying, and decreasing albedo exerts a positive radiative forcing on climate. Here I simulate the radiative forcings associated with changes in surface albedo as a result of forestation in temperate and boreal forest areas, and translate these forcings into equivalent changes in local carbon stock for comparison with estimated carbon sequestration potentials. I suggest that in many boreal forest areas, the positive forcing induced by decreases in albedo can offset the negative forcing that is expected from carbon sequestration. Some high-latitude forestation activities may therefore increase climate change, rather than mitigating it as intended.     

Old-growth forests as global carbon sinks

Old-growth forests remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere at rates that vary with climate and nitrogen deposition. The sequestered carbon dioxide is stored in live woody tissues and slowly decomposing organic matter in litter and soil. Old-growth forests therefore serve as a global carbon dioxide sink, but they are not protected by international treaties, because it is generally thought that ageing forests cease to accumulate carbon. Here we report a search of literature and databases for forest carbon-flux estimates. We find that in forests between 15 and 800 years of age, net ecosystem productivity (the net carbon balance of the forest including soils) is usually positive. Our results demonstrate that old-growth forests can continue to accumulate carbon, contrary to the long-standing view that they are carbon neutral. Over 30 per cent of the global forest area is unmanaged primary forest, and this area contains the remaining old-growth forests. Half of the primary forests (6 x 10(8) hectares) are located in the boreal and temperate regions of the Northern Hemisphere. On the basis of our analysis, these forests alone sequester about 1.3 +/- 0.5 gigatonnes of carbon per year. Thus, our findings suggest that 15 per cent of the global forest area, which is currently not considered when offsetting increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, provides at least 10 per cent of the global net ecosystem productivity. Old-growth forests accumulate carbon for centuries and contain large quantities of it. We expect, however, that much of this carbon, even soil carbon, will move back to the atmosphere if these forests are disturbed.     

Constraints on radiative forcing and future climate change from observations and climate model ensembles

The assessment of uncertainties in global warming projections is often based on expert judgement, because a number of key variables in climate change are poorly quantified. In particular, the sensitivity of climate to changing greenhouse-gas concentrations in the atmosphere and the radiative forcing effects by aerosols are not well constrained, leading to large uncertainties in global warming simulations. Here we present a Monte Carlo approach to produce probabilistic climate projections, using a climate model of reduced complexity. The uncertainties in the input parameters and in the model itself are taken into account, and past observations of oceanic and atmospheric warming are used to constrain the range of realistic model responses. We obtain a probability density function for the present-day total radiative forcing, giving 1.4 to 2.4 W m-2 for the 5-95 per cent confidence range, narrowing the global-mean indirect aerosol effect to the range of 0 to -1.2 W m-2. Ensemble simulations for two illustrative emission scenarios suggest a 40 per cent probability that global-mean surface temperature increase will exceed the range predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), but only a 5 per cent probability that warming will fall below that range.     

A humid climate state during the Palaeocene/Eocene thermal maximum

An abrupt climate warming of 5 to 10 degrees C during the Palaeocene/Eocene boundary thermal maximum (PETM) 55 Myr ago is linked to the catastrophic release of approximately 1,050-2,100 Gt of carbon from sea-floor methane hydrate reservoirs. Although atmospheric methane, and the carbon dioxide derived from its oxidation, probably contributed to PETM warming, neither the magnitude nor the timing of the climate change is consistent with direct greenhouse forcing by the carbon derived from methane hydrate. Here we demonstrate significant differences between marine and terrestrial carbon isotope records spanning the PETM. We use models of key carbon cycle processes to identify the cause of these differences. Our results provide evidence for a previously unrecognized discrete shift in the state of the climate system during the PETM, characterized by large increases in mid-latitude tropospheric humidity and enhanced cycling of carbon through terrestrial ecosystems. A more humid atmosphere helps to explain PETM temperatures, but the ultimate mechanisms underlying the shift remain unknown.     

Remobilization of southern African desert dune systems by twenty-first century global warming

Although desert dunes cover 5 per cent of the global land surface and 30 per cent of Africa, the potential impacts of twenty-first century global warming on desert dune systems are not well understood. The inactive Sahel and southern African dune systems, which developed in multiple arid phases since the last interglacial period, are used today by pastoral and agricultural systems that could be disrupted if climate change alters twenty-first century dune dynamics. Empirical data and model simulations have established that the interplay between dune surface erodibility (determined by vegetation cover and moisture availability) and atmospheric erosivity (determined by wind energy) is critical for dunefield dynamics. This relationship between erodibility and erosivity is susceptible to climate-change impacts. Here we use simulations with three global climate models and a range of emission scenarios to assess the potential future activity of three Kalahari dunefields. We determine monthly values of dune activity by modifying and improving an established dune mobility index so that it can account for global climate model data outputs. We find that, regardless of the emission scenario used, significantly enhanced dune activity is simulated in the southern dunefield by 2039, and in the eastern and northern dunefields by 2069. By 2099 all dunefields are highly dynamic, from northern South Africa to Angola and Zambia. Our results suggest that dunefields are likely to be reactivated (the sand will become significantly exposed and move) as a consequence of twenty-first century climate warming.     

林业碳汇提升的主要原理和途径

降低大气CO₂含量、缓解气候变暖,已成为当今科学界和国际社会广泛关注的前沿热点问题。林业碳汇作为基于自然解决方案实现“碳达峰、碳中和”的一个重要途径,在应对全球气候变化方面发挥着基础性、战略性、独特的作用。林业碳汇不仅是森林碳汇,林产品碳汇也起着不可忽视的重要作用。林业碳汇潜力提升是一个森林生态系统净碳收支平衡和全产业链林产品碳汇的调控过程,主要包括无机碳的植物固定(光合过程、净生产力等)、土壤有机碳的周转与固定(动植物和微生物残体分解与黏土固定)、林产品碳的固持(林产品产量、木材转换效率、种类和使用寿命等)等3方面的调控原理。笔者从森林碳汇和林产品碳汇两个维度阐述了提升林业碳汇的主要原理、方法或途径。提升林业碳汇潜力的主要途径包括:①通过适地适树、适钙适树人工造林,以增加森林面积;②以完善森林经营措施来增加森林净生产力;③利用矿质黏土对有机碳的保护来增加森林土壤碳汇;④提升林产品产量和改进林产品用途以增加其寿命。在全球尺度上,增加森林面积或提高森林净生产力3.4%,或用可再生能源替换薪炭木材,再将薪炭木材用于制造锯材和人造板,都可以连续30 a每年增加1 Pg的碳汇量。减少全球森林火灾面积1/4或增加森林土壤有机碳含量0.23%,也可以增加碳汇1 Pg。此外,林业固碳还有巨大潜力可以挖掘。     

Detection of a direct carbon dioxide effect in continental river runoff records

Continental runoff has increased through the twentieth century despite more intensive human water consumption. Possible reasons for the increase include: climate change and variability, deforestation, solar dimming, and direct atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) effects on plant transpiration. All of these mechanisms have the potential to affect precipitation and/or evaporation and thereby modify runoff. Here we use a mechanistic land-surface model and optimal fingerprinting statistical techniques to attribute observational runoff changes into contributions due to these factors. The model successfully captures the climate-driven inter-annual runoff variability, but twentieth-century climate alone is insufficient to explain the runoff trends. Instead we find that the trends are consistent with a suppression of plant transpiration due to CO2-induced stomatal closure. This result will affect projections of freshwater availability, and also represents the detection of a direct CO2 effect on the functioning of the terrestrial biosphere.